The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
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After Charlie Morton’s first three starts of the season, his ERA stood at 1.64, and I noted that his revamped style of pitching simply wouldn’t let him keep this up for much longer. Since I wrote that article, Morton has made five more starts and posted an ERA of 3.27 – technically that does represent regression, but it’s still better than I would have expected. After another dominant start last night, I figured we needed to take another look at the guy they call Ground Chuck.

In Morton’s last five starts, he has reduced his reliance on his sinker, going from 90% fastballs in his first three starts to “just” 80% in his last five. He’s still basically just throwing one pitch, but he has mixed in his off-speed stuff a bit more in order to be a little less predictable. It has helped as well, as after posting a 12/6 BB/K ratio in his first three starts, he’s at 14/23 in his last five. The decrease in fastball usage has led to fewer walks and fewer ground balls, but overall it’s been a worthwhile trade-off for Morton – his xFIP has dropped from 4.09 in April to 3.63 in May- putting fewer men on base outweighs the small change in his batted ball profile.

But there’s still an area that has to be cause for concern with Morton, and it’s directly related to the changes he’s made to his repertoire. Morton has decided to lean on a two-seam fastball more heavily than just about anyone in baseball, and as Dave Allen has noted, the two-seam fastball and the slider have the largest platoon splits of any pitches in baseball. Two-seamers are great against same-handed batters, but aren’t an effective weapon against opposite-handed hitters.

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In terms of position players, the Pirates at least have something going. They have four above average position players age 25 or younger, and a few promising players on the way. Better yet, two of the current young players, along with a couple of the up-and-comers, occupy premium spots on the defensive spectrum. It might not guarantee them a powerhouse offense for years to come, but it’s a fine foundation.

When we move to the other side of ball and look at Pittsburgh’s pitching, we see a completely different story. There is plenty of room for optimism, sure, but it’s mostly based on wishes and dreams. It’s certainly not based on the current major league staff. Few, if any, of them will be around in the next few years.

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While examining the Pirates this week, I’ve found myself asking the same question again and again: how important is it for the team to get the .500-record monkey off its back? Put another way, I’ve been wondering what portion of its resources it should use to help the 2011 team for the 2011 team’s sake, and what portion it should use to help the 2012 and beyond teams actually contend. Clearly the focus is on 2012 and beyond, since the goal is contention, not a .500 record. Still, teams have to consider the present for many reasons, including fan interest. If the Pirates continue winning at a reasonable clip, the front office could face some tough decisions in July.

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There’s something interesting about every team, at every point in the season. Each week I’ll examine a different one, tackling a different topic each day. This is normally a Monday post. Forgive it’s tardiness.

Hell yeah, they’re over .500, bros!

Last night, with a 4-1 victory over the Dodgers, the Pirates pushed their record to 18-17. That means that they have at least one more day with a .500 or better record, which, at this point, is significant in Pittsburgh. When they wrapped up a victory on Sunday they reached .500 again, the latest date at which they had an even record since 2004. After that things got pretty ugly, which makes this year’s run that much more enjoyable.

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Last year, Charlie Morton had an ERA of 7.57, had a stint on the disabled list, and was bounced from the Pirates rotation and ended up back in Triple-A. This year, he has a 1.64 ERA, is averaging better than seven innings pitched per start, and is one of the main reasons the Pirates are a .500 team, only a game out of first place in the NL Central. He’s an early season success story, and credit is being given to his new Roy Halladay-esque delivery and the decision to lower his arm slot.

But at the risk of being a wet blanket, I’m going to suggest that Morton’s success so far is actually problematic long term, and it might just be in his best interests to get torched by the Marlins tomorrow.

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The Pirates downed the Rockies in 14 innings on Friday thanks to a game-winning double off the bat of Jose Tabata. But the real hero of the game was manager Clint Hurdle, whose strategic decision to send Andrew McCutchen to the on-deck circle as opposed to relief pitcher Garrett Olson likely confused Jim Tracy into pitching to Tabata in the first place.

The Pirates bench was empty and, due to a double-switch made earlier in the game, the pitcher’s spot was due up second in the order, behind Tabata and before McCutchen. After Franklin Morales walked Josh Rodriguez with two outs in the 14th frame of a game knotted at three runs each, Tabata stepped into the batters box.

Knowing that the next scheduled hitter was a reliever, and that the Pirates’ only other pinch-hit options were pitchers, the safe course of action is to walk Tabata. This puts runners at first and second, but with a vastly inferior hitter at the dish.

The situation cannot be effectively measured by WPA without incorporating the strength of the batter. The Pirates might appear to have more of a chance to win the game with runners at first and second as opposed to just having first base occupied, but the difference is likely offset by the gap in productivity at the plate between Tabata and Olson. It’s interesting to ponder: does Tabata up with a runner on first give you a better shot at winning than a reliever up with first and second? I vote yes without hesitation, meaning Tracy’s decision should have been clear.

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