Whence we last examined yonder batting orders, we came away with several expected observations (Jose Bautista plays baseball like a video game, the Oakland Athletics do not care much for scoring runs, Rick Ankiel and Ian Desmond are not feared hitters, and so forth) as well as a number of curious findings (the Cubs lead-off combo was tops in the majors, the 7th hitters on AL teams were worse than the 9th hitters, NL managers effectively managed the bottoms of their lineups, and such).

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are in the middle of their most successful season in nearly two decades, but you can’t blame their fans for still being disappointed. The Pirates have received virtually no coverage despite the fact that they are currently four games above .500, play in a winnable division, and currently employ one of the best players in baseball. Despite his All-Star Game “snub” — which Eric Seidman covered last week — Andrew McCutchen has officially established himself as one of the best, and most exciting, players in the game. It’s a damn shame that he continues to fly under the radar.
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I can’t speak for the other writers here, but I can tell you one thing with certainty: I put way too much time into thinking about the FanGraphs Franchise Player Draft. Even though it was a hypothetical draft and merely a fun exercise, I found myself sweating bullets as my turn came around to pick. What’s the best strategy in this sort of draft? Should I go with upside, or with certainty? How much risk is too much risk, and how much is not enough? Gah, so many questions!

As we went through this draft, every one of us writers had to ask ourselves the exact same questions, and judging from the final results, each of us chose to answer them slightly differently. That’s one of the beautiful things in a draft like this: there’s no real “wrong” strategy (outside of selecting Chone Figgins or someone of that nature). Everyone still picked a potential franchise player — it’s just that each person’s pick can tell you a little about themselves if you look closely enough. For instance, I think Cistulli may just be one of those people that goes “All In” and then turns to his table-mate and says, “Now…what game is this again?” Go big or go home — Carson loves prospects and upside, and picking Mike Trout at #3 was living life on the wild side.

So why did I choose Carl Crawford with the #7 pick? I thought this was a potentially controversial pick at the time, but I had a very deliberate, thought-out reason for selecting Crawford. Let me explain.

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In the run-up to tonight’s MLB draft, the Pirates have been linked to a host of various players at different times, but this weekend the chatter all began to point toward Pittsburgh selecting UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole. This morning, Jonathan Mayo reported that the decision had been made, and Cole would indeed be the first player taken in the draft. The Pirates are choosing Cole over Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, fellow teammate and RHP Trevor Bauer (who has frequently out-pitched Cole this year, especially of late), Virginia southpaw Danny Hultzen, and high school standout outfielder Bubba Starling.

In terms of stuff, no one can compete with Cole in this draft, and few pitchers in Major League Baseball can match up either. He’s routinely been clocked in the upper-90s, touching 100 at times, and comfortably sits in the 94-98 range. Velocity is not a question for Cole, but what made him so exciting earlier in the spring was that his changeup was drawing rave reviews. He’d always had the power fastball/slider combination, but adding a nasty changeup gave him three plus pitches that he could throw strikes with, and given his size and velocity, he’s essentially a scout’s dream.

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Wrapping up the series on trade targets, today we’ll look at a few catchers who might be available (and perhaps even desirable!) for teams in contention. With the Diamondbacks surprisingly in the race for the National League West (at least for the moment), Miguel Montero isn’t on the table (if he ever would have been), and he probably would have headed up this list. Leaving out the multitudes of generic backup catchers (the Jose Molinas and Matt Treanors [Treanor!] of the world), there isn’t much out there. Among the contenders, the Giants need to fill a Buster Posey-shaped hole and the Red Sox probably want to improve on the Jason Varitek–Jarrod Saltalamacchia Duo of Yuck. Here are four catchers might be available and/or could draw varying degrees of interest.

In no particular order…

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The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
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After Charlie Morton’s first three starts of the season, his ERA stood at 1.64, and I noted that his revamped style of pitching simply wouldn’t let him keep this up for much longer. Since I wrote that article, Morton has made five more starts and posted an ERA of 3.27 – technically that does represent regression, but it’s still better than I would have expected. After another dominant start last night, I figured we needed to take another look at the guy they call Ground Chuck.

In Morton’s last five starts, he has reduced his reliance on his sinker, going from 90% fastballs in his first three starts to “just” 80% in his last five. He’s still basically just throwing one pitch, but he has mixed in his off-speed stuff a bit more in order to be a little less predictable. It has helped as well, as after posting a 12/6 BB/K ratio in his first three starts, he’s at 14/23 in his last five. The decrease in fastball usage has led to fewer walks and fewer ground balls, but overall it’s been a worthwhile trade-off for Morton – his xFIP has dropped from 4.09 in April to 3.63 in May- putting fewer men on base outweighs the small change in his batted ball profile.

But there’s still an area that has to be cause for concern with Morton, and it’s directly related to the changes he’s made to his repertoire. Morton has decided to lean on a two-seam fastball more heavily than just about anyone in baseball, and as Dave Allen has noted, the two-seam fastball and the slider have the largest platoon splits of any pitches in baseball. Two-seamers are great against same-handed batters, but aren’t an effective weapon against opposite-handed hitters.

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In terms of position players, the Pirates at least have something going. They have four above average position players age 25 or younger, and a few promising players on the way. Better yet, two of the current young players, along with a couple of the up-and-comers, occupy premium spots on the defensive spectrum. It might not guarantee them a powerhouse offense for years to come, but it’s a fine foundation.

When we move to the other side of ball and look at Pittsburgh’s pitching, we see a completely different story. There is plenty of room for optimism, sure, but it’s mostly based on wishes and dreams. It’s certainly not based on the current major league staff. Few, if any, of them will be around in the next few years.

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While examining the Pirates this week, I’ve found myself asking the same question again and again: how important is it for the team to get the .500-record monkey off its back? Put another way, I’ve been wondering what portion of its resources it should use to help the 2011 team for the 2011 team’s sake, and what portion it should use to help the 2012 and beyond teams actually contend. Clearly the focus is on 2012 and beyond, since the goal is contention, not a .500 record. Still, teams have to consider the present for many reasons, including fan interest. If the Pirates continue winning at a reasonable clip, the front office could face some tough decisions in July.

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There’s something interesting about every team, at every point in the season. Each week I’ll examine a different one, tackling a different topic each day. This is normally a Monday post. Forgive it’s tardiness.

Hell yeah, they’re over .500, bros!

Last night, with a 4-1 victory over the Dodgers, the Pirates pushed their record to 18-17. That means that they have at least one more day with a .500 or better record, which, at this point, is significant in Pittsburgh. When they wrapped up a victory on Sunday they reached .500 again, the latest date at which they had an even record since 2004. After that things got pretty ugly, which makes this year’s run that much more enjoyable.

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