Derek Holland hit 96 MPH and sat at 94 MPH with his fastball during game two of the ALCS. That sort of velocity from a left-hander means he’s on the right track for future value. His problem Monday, and to some extent throughout the season, has been locating that fastball correctly. Perhaps the Dutch Stache should fall out of love with the high fastball again.
There’s no need for panic in the Motor City just yet. Although the Detroit Tigers trail the Texas Rangers 2-0, there’s still a chance to salvage the series. In order to do that, the Tigers will have to go through Colby Lewis. While Lewis may have been the biggest surprise of the 2010 season, he fell to Earth this season. Lewis still managed to post 2.3 WAR in 2011, but he also displayed some pretty significant weaknesses. If the Tigers want to get back in the series, they are going to have to exploit those deficiencies.
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We will chat our way through today’s Tigers-Rangers game here.
Judging from the reception to my game preview from last Friday, it seems there are other people out there like me: they like knowing a pitcher’s repertoire and attack plan before watching a game. Since it seemed to be a hit the last time around, I’ll try and provide quick little game previews for each new pitching matchup this postseason.
….That is, I’ll keep it up until everyone gets sick of hearing from me.
So without further ado, let’s take a look at today’s early game: Max Scherzer and Derek Holland.
In Game 1 of the ALDS, C.J. Wilson wasn’t in top form, and the Rangers started in a 1-0 hole. The Rangers recovered in short order, taking the next three games to advance to the ALCS, but the margins were small, as the offense failed to produce a consistent attack. Now, Wilson has a chance to start the Rangers off on the right foot once more. He may need to be very good, as the Rangers’ hitters are unlikely to break free from their slumber against Justin Verlander.
Jim Leyland’s big gamble paid off, and the Tigers will oppose Wilson with Verlander in Game 1. While Verlander had far from his best start in Game 3, and the umpire seemed determined to help him win, he did have good stuff — he generated 18 swinging strikes, tallying at least four swooshes of air on every one of his offerings save his curveball. That could spell trouble for a Rangers attack that was fairly meek against the Rays. Yes, Adrian Beltre smashed three homers in the decisive Game 4, but he only had one other hit in the series. Four hits must have seemed like a lot to Mitch Moreland, Michael Young and Nelson Cruz, who as a trio combined for four hits. As it was for much of the second half, the offense was carried by Ian Kinsler and Mike Napoli.
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Prior to last night’s decisive ALDS game, Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland remarked of that Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner “had been really pesky” at the plate. I am not sure exactly what Leyland meant, but I have my own idea about what it means to be “pesky” at the plate. Usually, people mean that a “pesky” hitter is hard to strike out. That is part of it for me. However, when I think of Brett Gardner plate appearances, I think of not only a lot of contact, but a lot of pitches seen in general, both because of contact and simply taking pitches. So, let us say farewell to the Yankees by looking at the five most Gardner-esque, “pesky” hitters of 2011. To the junk stat laboratory!
With an FIP a full half-run less than the South Atlantic League leader, to suggest that Rangers pitching prospect Cody Buckel excelled would be an understatement. Statistically, the young right-hander, whose pitching mechanics aim to emulate Giants Tim Lincecum, successfully utilized a four-pitch mix to overwhelm both younger and older hitters at the level. So why then was he only considered the 19th best prospect in the league ranking behind Colorado Rockies Tyler Matzek, who combined for a 6.22 ERA in 2011? The answer lies in Buckel’s upside projection, which falls below that of his higher velocity, bigger-bodied counterparts.
Video after the jump
Join me! The rabbit hole is suspiciously warm.
The Tampa Bay Rays are now down 1-2 in the ALDS, placing their hopes for a Rangers rout on the shoulders of rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. The so-called Hellboy takes the mound at 2:07 p.m. ET today, facing Rangers lefty Matt Harrison.
The match-up, to say the least, favors the Rangers. Not only does Harrison have the edge in FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.85), and SIERA (3.94), he has the added bonus of a seemingly normal BABIP (.290) and LOB% (72.3%). Hellickson has only an ERA edge (2.95); the rest suggests impending doom: 4.44 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA, .223 BABIP, and 82.0% LOB%.
Well, Hellickson does have at least one major thing going for him: A serious and unusual strikeout regression.
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Throughout the Rangers-Rays series so far, one of the overriding narratives has been, “This Rangers offense is so good, can the Rays possibly contain them?” And unlike other points the media loves to harp on, this is a fair question; the Rangers do have one of the most potent offenses in the majors (.348 wOBA, 2nd best overall), and their lineup is chock full of dangerous power hitters (210 home runs, 2nd most in majors). Meanwhile, the Rays have a strong pitching staff in James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, and Matt Moore, so the drama creates itself; power versus power, which side will win?
But if you’re a loyal FanGraphs reader, you’re probably already asking yourself a very different question: “Wait, what about Park Factors?” It’s one thing to look at a team’s raw offensive numbers and declare that they have a dominant lineup, but you always have to consider the context. The Ballpark in Arlington is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors, so maybe their offense is overrated? But no, even when you adjust for those effects, the Rangers still have an offense 13% better than league average — tied with the Yankees for 2nd best in the majors.
Yet, now that the action is moving from Arlington to St. Petersburg, everyone harping on the Rangers’ offense is in for a surprise. For the next two games of this series, these two teams are going to be much more evenly matched on offense than most people assume. The reason why? Tropicana Field.
Baseball is a game of mysteries: Who invented the game? Why do scouts use a scale ranging from 20 to 80? And what were the Marlins thinking when they chose their new team logo?
Yet these mysteries are but mere blips on the proverbial radar when compared to what happened tonight. It was the first game of the ALDS — and following an Elvis Andrus walk — Josh Hamilton dug in with no outs, down by eight runs in the bottom of the sixth inning. And then did the unthinkable.
Josh Hamilton bunted.