The Red Sox made a historic trade in terms of dollars moved a few months ago, a trade that simultaneously improved their long-term outlook while burning their short-term chances to the ground. Boston lost 26 of 34 games after the deal with the Dodgers and will spend the winter picking up the pieces, trying to find smart ways to invest the $260+ million in savings while getting the team back into contention as soon as possible.

One of GM Ben Cherington’s biggest short-term questions is Jacoby Ellsbury, who followed up his 9.4 WAR season of 2011 with a 1.5 WAR effort in 2012. He missed most of the summer due to injury and when he was on the field, he stunk. Just a .300 wOBA and 83 wRC+ in 323 plate appearances. Without looking it up, I’m guessing the 7.9 WAR drop from one year to the next is one of the largest by a position player in history. But I digress.

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For a very long time, the Boston Red Sox were good. Great, even. Then, beginning around September 2011 or so, the Red Sox turned into a disaster. The Sox followed a poor end to the 2011 season with a poor all of the 2012 season, and it became somewhat conceivable that David Ortiz would look for a change. Ortiz was set to be a free agent after the year, and as hard as it is to imagine the Red Sox without him, maybe Ortiz would’ve been sick of the atmosphere. Just recently, Ken Rosenthal wrote that the Texas Rangers would have interest in Ortiz as a potential free-agent DH. It wasn’t impossible that Ortiz would go somewhere else, is the point.

But that’s not happening, as it turns out. Friday was the end of the exclusive negotiating window for teams and their free agents. Recently there were reports that Ortiz and the Red Sox were close to an agreement, then there were reports that Ortiz and the Red Sox weren’t really close to an agreement. But Friday, word’s out that an agreement is in place. David Ortiz is not hitting the open market — David Ortiz is staying in Boston.

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Entering the 2012 season, Red Sox prospect Keury De La Cruz was a relative unknown after two years of modest production in short season baseball. At 20, De La Cruz burst onto the prospect scene by posting a .308/.352/.536 line in the South Atlantic League before earning a late season promotion. Is De La Cruz a legitimate prospect? Sure, but the amount of hype he has received due to coming out of nowhere is a phenomenon repeated every winter. The names change, but the excitement… and eventual let down… is the same.

Just last winter, fellow Red Sox Brandon Jacobs posted nearly identical numbers at the same age in Greenville. That success earned him multiple top-100 rankings highlighted by his being named the 46th best prospect on Baseball Prospectus’ top-101 prospects list. This isn’t to say Jacobs did not earn those lofty rankings. He did, and was one of my favorite bat first prospects in 2011. However, the hangover from his 2011 success was a nasty one as slightly above average production at the High-A level has caused his prospect stock to crater — Probably unfairly as he battled injuries in 2012. Read the rest of this entry »

It looks like a Japanese high school baseball player is going to sign directly with American team. Big in velocity and stature, right-hander Shohei Otani has confidence too: the 18-year-old seemed to imply in his press conference comments (as recorded by the Associated Press) that he think he’ll “challenge” for the big leagues soon. Though he’s an intriguing young pitcher, there are a few mitigating factors that may keep the market for him limited. No matter what happens, his signing will break new ground in Japanese-American baseball relations.

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Yesterday morning, Eddie Yost, also know as “The Walking Man,” passed away at 86. Yost had a long career as a third baseman from 1944 to 1962, mostly with the Washington Senators. He also spent a couple of years playing for the Tigers before being selected in the pre-1961 expansion draft by the Angels and spending his final two seasons there. After he retired as a player, Yost coached in Washington, then with the Mets during the “Miracle Mets” era. His last coaching job was as third base coach for the Red Sox from 1977 to 1984. Of more interest for those reading this blog is how many walks Yost drew despite having little power. Now if we could just solve the mystery of his nickname. Oh wait, I’ve got it:0 the local scribe was a big fan of Giacometti.

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As the Red Sox get ready to begin contract negotiations with David Ortiz, they can relax comfortable in the knowledge that money will not be an issue in the negotiations. All Ortiz really wants is respect. That should make things pretty simple, right?

Jokes aside, “respect” probably translates to money plus multiple years, say, two. Ortiz is going to turn 37 next month, so he probably is not planning on playing too much longer. Ortiz was not very happy about not being offered multiple years last off-season, so he probably is not going to readily settle for just one this time around.

After a down year in 2009, Ortiz began to bounce back in 2010, and was even better in 2011 and the first part of 2012 (in the 90 games in which he appeared prior to his season ending due to injury). It is the 2011 and 2012 seasons that are of particular interest here, not only because these excellent performances are the most recent and relevant data with respect to his true talent, but because of the unusual way Ortiz went about doing it. This adds to the already complicated matter of figuring out how good a hitter Ortiz can be expected to be over the next couple of seasons given his age, and thus, how much the Red Sox (or other potential suitors) should be willing to invest in him.

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Every weekday morning, I have the exact same routine. The alarm on my cell phone goes off, I yell at it for a few minutes, it doesn’t stop making noise, then I succumb and get up and turn on the coffee maker. My first walk is always to the kitchen, to start making coffee, and then the rest of the day begins. Yet as certain as I am every morning that I’m going to make myself coffee, I’m still less certain of that each day than I was that the Red Sox would dismiss manager Bobby Valentine. If anything the surprise was that he lasted through the end of the year. Valentine was a dead man sitting, and now a year after finding a new manager, the Red Sox are in the early stages of finding a new manager.

And the guy reportedly at the top of their wish list is one-time Red Sox coach and current Blue Jays manager John Farrell. Last year, the Red Sox tried to get Farrell until the Blue Jays were like, “wait, no.” Now the Red Sox want Farrell again, and the Blue Jays are listening. Farrell’s still got another year on his contract, so while the Jays are open to the idea of him bolting for Boston, a trade would have to be worked out. That’s a trade involving a manager, which, as you can imagine, is historically pretty rare.

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Mike Trout? Miguel Cabrera? Please. Sure, numbers and metrics matter (at least the ones I selectively use to make my case depending on what I choose to argue beforehand). But if want a player who has actually made the difference in his team’s (probably) successful playoff run, there is only one choice for the 2012 American League’s Most Valuable Player: Kevin Youkilis.

Okay, I’ll admit it: the title and first paragraph are just meant to grab attention. I do not really think that Youkilis should be the 2012 AL MVP. However, Youkilis has had a big impact on the White Sox since being coming over from Boston at the end of June. If the current standings hold (White Sox three games ahead of the Tigers), one could reasonably argue that Youkilis has been the difference the American League Central championship this year.

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In a recent article discussing the latest crop of international talent, valued commenter “Nate” offered a great, concise preview of soon-to-be international free agent Kyuji Fujikawa, who’s presently playing in the Nippon Professional Baseball league:

Kyuji Fujikawa – Closer for the Hanshin Tigers. Closest thing Japan has had lately to a Mariano Rivera-type. He’s 32, but will be a full free agent, so won’t require a posting fee. Expensive teams that forgot to buy a bullpen should look at him *cough* Angels *cough*.

And Nate is correct many times over; not only does one of Japan’s best relievers appear ready for a jump across the river, but he also has every chance to be an elite reliever in the United States.

Take a look at his numbers in Japan:

This is legit. And he could make for a talented addition to a number of teams in 2013.
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Life has not been good for Red Sox fans the past couple of months. Misery seems to follow manager Bobby Valentine. No matter what descriptor you choose to use, it hasn’t been pretty. And while the year is approaching historically awful territory for the franchise, it isn’t quite there yet, as there have been five other modern Red Sox seasons that were worse. What’s more, “historically awful” has a different meaning for the Red Sox than it does for other franchises.

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