[Part Two is now posted here]

Near the end of his miserable 2010 season, Alex Gordon issued a proclamation: “I’m going to dominate next year.” Later in the off-season, Gordon was more circumspect: “What did you want me to say, I was going to do okay?” Understandably, this bit of bravado generated much mockery. After decent-but-uninspiring performances during his first two major-league seasons in 2007 and 2008, during 2009 and 2010 the one-time “next George Brett” endured injuries, demotion, miserable major-league performance when healthy, and a position shift to left field in order to accommodate the next next George Brett Mike Moustakas. (To be more precise, Moustakas is the next next next George Brett, if you count former Royals third baseman and current hitting coach Kevin Seitzer. Mark Teahen does not count. He is the next Jason Giambi, remember?)

Gordon’s 2011 performance received relatively little attention in 2011, but it is safe to say that no one is laughing at him. Although Gordon may not have received the attention that other players in the American League with similar performances, or even of his other teammates having better-than-expected seasons, in 2011 Gordon was a monster. This two-part post will try to put his season in a bit of perspective to get a sense of how good it was, and, more importantly, try to get a sense for how good Gordon “really” is going forward.

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Bill James’ discovery of the Pythagorean Win Expectation is one of the cooler findings of sabermetric research. You can read up on the details by following the given link. In short, what James found is that one can get a pretty good approximation of a team’s winning percentage given only their runs scored and allowed by using the following formula:

It works remarkably well, and more recent versions like PythagenPat are even more accurate. I won’t repeat the basics, which can be looked up elsewhere. Instead, I want to address the occasional misuse of the formula for building narratives of teams being better or worse.

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Earlier this week, I spent some time explaining an alternative way of evaluating power: Weighted Extra Bases (wXB). It’s not a statistic you’ll find in the FanGraphs pages as I made it up — although I am not the first to do so — but I like to think it does a better job at capturing the value a player creates through power than Isolated Power or Slugging Percentage.

That’s not to say that wXB is better than ISO or SLG — simply that it’s answering a different question. While ISO and SLG concern themselves with a player’s extra bases and total bases, wXB focuses specifically on the value a player adds through their extra base hits. The formula uses the coefficients for each hit from wOBA, so doubles are given slightly more weight than in ISO, and home runs slightly less.

Using this stat, we’re able to see which players are over- or undervalued by ISO, compared with how much value they have actually contributed through their extra base hits. There are a few notable names on both sides of the coin, so let’s check them out.

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In a move that shocked no one, this morning the Royals signed Jeff Francoeur to a two-year extension. The deal will pay him $13.5 million between 2012 and 2013, which is a bit higher than I had guessed when writing about Francoeur earlier in the week. But it’s still a decent haul for a free-agent-to-be, and despite the immediately negative reaction to the deal, it could work out for the Royals.

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At least one person in Kansas City will be flashing his trademarked smile today. Jeff Francoeur had his contract extended two years. Fans in New York and Atlanta are probably stifling laughs of their own, coming from an entirely different place, but was the signing so bad? Even without terms, we can try to evaluate the signability of the 27-year-old corner outfielder.

Frenchy is having his best season at an age where most baseball players are peaking. On the other hand, very few of his core stats represent a career-best. He’s shown a better ISO before (.189 in 2006), struck out less the last three years in a row, and probably won’t hit career highs in home runs, runs or RBI. He’s only showing a personal best in stolen bases and walk rate, and that walk rate (6.6%) is only percentage points above his best (6.0%, achieved thrice).

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The American League Central is pretty weak. Of all the teams in the division, only Cleveland has a positive run differential as of today, and that’s by only one run. A number of factors probably contribute to the divisional weakness: lower average budgets than some of the coastal divisions, poor decision making, and perhaps some bad luck. The division, however, is surprisingly strong this season in one area: shortstops. Can any other division compare?

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The pieces are starting to fall into place for the Royals. They’ve started unveiling their youth movement this year, bringing up a number of their top prospects. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Danny Duffy lead the charge of high-end prospects who have debuted in 2011, but they’re not the only newcomers from the highly touted farm system. Jeremy Jeffress, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, and others have contributed in 2011. More will follow in September, and we could see a turnaround really start in 2012.

Even though the Royals do have plenty of potential in their young players, they will not fill the entire roster with 23-year-olds. Every team needs some kind of veteran presence. The Royals do have some experienced players on their roster. In fact, their entire outfield is currently composed of players in their late 20s. These three players — Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Francoeur — have led the team in almost every offensive category this season, and it could be worth their while to keep a few of them around as their youngsters grow into major leaguers.

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With the flurry of rumors around the trade deadline, it can be easy for a move to sneak up seemingly out of nowhere. Theo Epstein and Dayton Moore pulled the trigger on one of those deals this afternoon, with the Red Sox acquiring second baseman Mike Aviles from the Royals for minor leaguers Yamaico Navarro, a 23-year-old versatile infielder, and Kendal Volz, a 23-year-old righty reliever.

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It’s trade rumor season. It’s time for fans of contenders to lust after the best players on lesser teams. The airways of AM radio are already full of trade ideas, many of them ridiculous. Their most valuable player for your least valuable prospects is no way to build a trade, and those rumors are easy to dismiss.

The problem is, even if we set the filter higher, and listen only to rumors that come from reputable sources and concern acquirable names, we are still going to hear a decent amount of hogwash. Let’s just take a couple tasty morsels and examine why the rumored swap makes little sense for one team in the dance. Even a real rumor from a real source can be a real silly idea.

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“He may not look like a classic corner outfielder, but Cabrera can play, and I think Braves fans will be pleasantly surprised with what he offers.”

— Dave Cameron on Melky Cabrera, February 15, 2010

Well, Dave was probably right that Braves fans were “surprised” with Melky Cabrera’s 2010 performance, but I’m not sure the surprise was all that pleasant. Having seemingly gained forty pounds between the Yankees 2009 World Series victory and Atlanta’s 2010 Opening Day, Cabrera followed his reasonable 1.7 WAR 2009 with a combination of a .294 wOBA and awful defense all over the outfield to end up one full win below replacement level for the 2010 season. Dave wasn’t the only one: check out this fool who thought Melky Cabrera was a three-win player who would have made signing, say, Johnny Damon pointless for the Braves.

So when Melky signed with the Kansas City Royals this past off-season, there was very little excitement, to say the least. With a few exceptions, the signing was panned. Given that it came in close proximity to the fulfillment of The Jeff Francoeur Prophecy and that it was for only $1.25 million, it didn’t get all that much attention. However, while the pitching has been awful, the Royals’ offense has been right in the middle of the pack so far, and Melky’s career-high .349 wOBA and 3.0 WAR have been a big part of that. What does this mean for his near future?

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