The American League Central is pretty weak. Of all the teams in the division, only Cleveland has a positive run differential as of today, and that’s by only one run. A number of factors probably contribute to the divisional weakness: lower average budgets than some of the coastal divisions, poor decision making, and perhaps some bad luck. The division, however, is surprisingly strong this season in one area: shortstops. Can any other division compare?
The pieces are starting to fall into place for the Royals. They’ve started unveiling their youth movement this year, bringing up a number of their top prospects. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Danny Duffy lead the charge of high-end prospects who have debuted in 2011, but they’re not the only newcomers from the highly touted farm system. Jeremy Jeffress, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, and others have contributed in 2011. More will follow in September, and we could see a turnaround really start in 2012.
Even though the Royals do have plenty of potential in their young players, they will not fill the entire roster with 23-year-olds. Every team needs some kind of veteran presence. The Royals do have some experienced players on their roster. In fact, their entire outfield is currently composed of players in their late 20s. These three players — Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Francoeur — have led the team in almost every offensive category this season, and it could be worth their while to keep a few of them around as their youngsters grow into major leaguers.
With the flurry of rumors around the trade deadline, it can be easy for a move to sneak up seemingly out of nowhere. Theo Epstein and Dayton Moore pulled the trigger on one of those deals this afternoon, with the Red Sox acquiring second baseman Mike Aviles from the Royals for minor leaguers Yamaico Navarro, a 23-year-old versatile infielder, and Kendal Volz, a 23-year-old righty reliever.
It’s trade rumor season. It’s time for fans of contenders to lust after the best players on lesser teams. The airways of AM radio are already full of trade ideas, many of them ridiculous. Their most valuable player for your least valuable prospects is no way to build a trade, and those rumors are easy to dismiss.
The problem is, even if we set the filter higher, and listen only to rumors that come from reputable sources and concern acquirable names, we are still going to hear a decent amount of hogwash. Let’s just take a couple tasty morsels and examine why the rumored swap makes little sense for one team in the dance. Even a real rumor from a real source can be a real silly idea.
“He may not look like a classic corner outfielder, but Cabrera can play, and I think Braves fans will be pleasantly surprised with what he offers.”
— Dave Cameron on Melky Cabrera, February 15, 2010
Well, Dave was probably right that Braves fans were “surprised” with Melky Cabrera’s 2010 performance, but I’m not sure the surprise was all that pleasant. Having seemingly gained forty pounds between the Yankees 2009 World Series victory and Atlanta’s 2010 Opening Day, Cabrera followed his reasonable 1.7 WAR 2009 with a combination of a .294 wOBA and awful defense all over the outfield to end up one full win below replacement level for the 2010 season. Dave wasn’t the only one: check out this fool who thought Melky Cabrera was a three-win player who would have made signing, say, Johnny Damon pointless for the Braves.
So when Melky signed with the Kansas City Royals this past off-season, there was very little excitement, to say the least. With a few exceptions, the signing was panned. Given that it came in close proximity to the fulfillment of The Jeff Francoeur Prophecy and that it was for only $1.25 million, it didn’t get all that much attention. However, while the pitching has been awful, the Royals’ offense has been right in the middle of the pack so far, and Melky’s career-high .349 wOBA and 3.0 WAR have been a big part of that. What does this mean for his near future?
And I’ve been putting out fire / With gasoline – David Bowie, Cat People
If Felipe Paulino qualified for the ERA title, his 95.1 MPH fastball velocity would rank second in all of baseball among starters. Felipe Paulino’s 95.1 MPH fastball might be what stands between him and future success.
Paulino has long been a head-scratcher. His career ERA (5.48) matches neither his career FIP (4.27) nor xFIP (4.03), and once you delve into the components, he doesn’t become any easier to understand. He’s struck out over eight batters per nine on the strength of an above-average swinging strike rate. He’s walked batters at a slightly-above average rate, but he’s also managed an average ground-ball rate. And then there’s the gas he pumps out of his right arm.
Whence we last examined yonder batting orders, we came away with several expected observations (Jose Bautista plays baseball like a video game, the Oakland Athletics do not care much for scoring runs, Rick Ankiel and Ian Desmond are not feared hitters, and so forth) as well as a number of curious findings (the Cubs lead-off combo was tops in the majors, the 7th hitters on AL teams were worse than the 9th hitters, NL managers effectively managed the bottoms of their lineups, and such).
On May 18, Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost moved Alex Gordon from third to first in the batting. Gordon has hit leadoff every game since then. This was a surprising move, but for those of us in the Nerdosphere who had been calling for this move before the season (I remember advocating it in the 2008-2009 offseason), it was a welcome one. The Royals aren’t exactly known for being on the sabermetric cutting edge, but the move must have caused waves, as the Tampa Bay Rays followed suit about a week later, moving Evan Longoria into their leadoff spot (at least for a few games).
Maybe that was because of a “sabermetric resonance,” or just the Rays’ obvious lust after all things Royals this season: Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz, and Joel Peralta (can Mike Jacobs be far behind?). Gordon leading off is a nice change of pace from the batting-order choices managers usually make. This is of particular interest because Yost has claimed to have read The Book, ideas from which form the basis of blog-based “Gordon-to-leadoff” enthusiasm. Given the increasing interest in moving the sabermetric revolution from the front office to the dugout, what can the context of Yost’s decision tell us about the present and future of potential sabermetric managing?
For a season and a half, Kansas City Royals fans were subjected to the fall-down range and errant arm of Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop. Hoppers hit to his left were all but guaranteed base hits, and booted would-be double play balls gave opponents extra chances to pummel the pitching staff. Those defensive woes were supposed to end in 2011 with Alcides Escobar, picked up from the Brewers as part of the Zack Greinke mega-deal, taking over at short for the Royals.
Escobar, a former top 20 prospect who Baseball America said “was born to play shortstop,” has been as good as advertised with the glove. Unfortunately, his bat has been so bad that it has wiped out the value provided by his exquisite range, body control and cannon arm.
We’ve already run through first basemen and designated hitters, corner outfielders, and middle infielders who could be available at the trading deadline. Today, we cover five relievers who could be switching teams over the next two months.
PLAYER: Heath Bell
TEAM: Padres
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Cardinals, Indians, Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: $7.5 million, free agent after the season
PROJECTED WAR: 1.3
Bell is pretty clearly the best “proven closer” on the market, and he’s likely the best overall reliever as well. Even though his K/9 is down to 7.0 this year, his swinging strike rate of 9.1% indicates that it’ll increase a bit, even if it doesn’t get all the way back to his gaudy 11.1 rate from 2010. To compensate, Bell’s ground ball rate is up to 51% this year — an especially nice quality to keep were he to exit spacious PETCO Park.
