If the Texas Rangers win Game Three of the ALCS tonight, the Tigers will find themselves down 3-0 in the series and would face elimination tomorrow. Rick Porcello is the scheduled starter for Detroit in that game, but there has been some rumblings about moving Justin Verlander up and have him start tomorrow if the Tigers season is on the line.

Jim Leyland won’t even consider doing that, however.

“He’s pitching Game 5,” Leyland said prior to a 7-3 loss on Monday in Game 2. “That’s a slam dunk. That is the end of the conversation.”

“What people don’t realize is, you’ve got to win four games,” Leyland said. “Nobody might believe this — the public, the TV people might not want to and everybody else — but let me tell you something: At this point, from what I’ve seen, pitching Justin Verlander on the fifth day is two-fold. It’s the best thing for Justin Verlander, and it’s the best thing for the team. Trust me when I tell you that.

“In my heart, it is a no-brainer. It might read better if I said I changed my mind. Everybody would love it. But it’s not the best thing for him, and it’s not the best thing for this team. He needs the day. That is a no-brainer.”

Leyland is going to get some grief for this stance if the Tigers get eliminated with Porcello on the hill and Verlander in the dugout, but in this instance, he’s exactly right.

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There’s no need for panic in the Motor City just yet. Although the Detroit Tigers trail the Texas Rangers 2-0, there’s still a chance to salvage the series. In order to do that, the Tigers will have to go through Colby Lewis. While Lewis may have been the biggest surprise of the 2010 season, he fell to Earth this season. Lewis still managed to post 2.3 WAR in 2011, but he also displayed some pretty significant weaknesses. If the Tigers want to get back in the series, they are going to have to exploit those deficiencies.
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We will chat our way through today’s Tigers-Rangers game here.

Judging from the reception to my game preview from last Friday, it seems there are other people out there like me: they like knowing a pitcher’s repertoire and attack plan before watching a game. Since it seemed to be a hit the last time around, I’ll try and provide quick little game previews for each new pitching matchup this postseason.

….That is, I’ll keep it up until everyone gets sick of hearing from me.

So without further ado, let’s take a look at today’s early game: Max Scherzer and Derek Holland.

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With their backs against the wall, the New York Yankees clobbered the baseball around the diamond for a 10-1 victory and tied up the ALDS with the Detroit Tigers at two games apiece.

The two teams will now head back east to New York for a decisive Game 5. New York will trot out young Ivan Nova, while Detroit counters with right-hander Doug Fister. It will be a rematch of Game 1, in which Fister surrendered six earned runs in 4.2 innings and, ultimately, took the loss. Given that Fister’s dominating second half with the Tigers was so surprising, it’s natural to think that perhaps he was exposed by having to face a good line-up, and that the Tigers are in trouble asking him to try and get the Yankees out again.

After all, it’s become fashionable to point out that Fister didn’t exactly have the hardest road after Detroit picked him up from Seattle in July. This criticism is based in fact – his opponents in August and September, chronologically:

Texas, Cleveland, Baltimore, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Cleveland, Minnesota, Oakland, Kansas City, Cleveland

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The list of umpires scheduled for the LDS has been released. As much as they should not be a factor in the games, several of their decisions will ultimately be scrutinized this postseason. The following is a look at which umpire strike zones are most likely to get notice and affect the game.

I am not going to get into any discussion on if the umpires and their strike zones are good or bad. They are their own individuals. The more I look into the subject, the differences can be some of the 2% that can be exploited to gain an advantage over other teams.

At the beginning of the season, I rated which of the umpires are the most hitter and pitcher friendly. Here is a look at each umpire, their rating and what series and game, for now, they are to umpire. I know there are only five games, but I included the last umpire in case there are any changes. The umpires at the top of the list are more hitter friendly and those at the bottom are more pitcher friendly:

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The Yankees and Tigers square off in the Bronx tonight (the Yankees always seem to end up with the night game, don’t they?) with what should be the marquee pitching matchup of the Division Series — Justin Verlander versus CC Sabathia. Here’s a fun fact: both pitchers are very good. A second fun fact: you should be excited to watch them. But you didn’t click on this story to read that — you already knew that. So let’s get into the stuff you did come here to read, shall we?

When the Tigers are at bat:

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Episode Eighty-Six
In which baseball sells itself.

Headlines
The Events of September 28th — Recapitulated!
The Saddest Story Ever — Told Briefly!
The 2011 Playoffs — Super-Previewed!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 45 min. play time.)

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At the season’s outset, we noted in our Tigers Season Preview that the team had a good front two in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, but there was a drop off after that. The front office seemed to agree, as they went hunting for pitching at the deadline, and came up with possibly the biggest steal of the deadline in Doug Fister, who has been so brilliant since coming to the Motor City that he has slid into the number-two spot. At this point, you could call both the Tigers’ hitting (their team wRC+ ranks fourth) and its pitching underrated, but what you can’t call them is losers. They were the first team in the American League to clinch their division. It was their first division pennant since 1987, back in the good old days when Jack Morris was still pitching to the score. As they were the first to clinch, they will be the first of the four playoff teams who I will examine as we lead in to the playoffs.

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For most of his career, Doug Fister has been baseball’s version of Rodney Dangerfield. Coming up through the minor leagues, Fister was simply one of a legion of strike-throwing no-stuff guys, and his lack of velocity or anything resembling an out pitch made him more of an afterthought than a prospect. He made it to the majors in the second half of the 2009 season, but his combination of 88 MPH fastballs and a home run problem did nothing to tear down the image of a guy who just threw too many hittable strikes.

But if you look beyond the high-ish HR/FB rate he posted in his rookie year, Fister was actually pretty decent in his first go-around in the Major Leagues. Despite topping out at 90 with his fastball, he got enough leverage on the pitch to generate a decent amount of ground balls. He also threw a well-above average changeup that helped him keep left-handed hitters at bay and generate some swinging strikes, giving him a solid 2.4 K/BB ratio despite pedestrian stuff. It all added up to a 4.43 xFIP, a league average mark for a 2009 AL pitcher.

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