With disabled list information available going back 10 years, I have decided to examine some league wide and team trends.
League Trends
To begin with, here are the league values for trips, days and average days lost to the DL over the past 10 years.
In scouting, the term “tweener” used to be more of a dirty word than it seems to be today. With advanced statistics, value is now viewed through a different lens which has allowed for a player like the Yankees Brett Gardner to post 5-win seasons at a position historically reserved for plodding power hitters. This development gives a prospect like Ramon Flores hope that his skill set may find a place in the Majors despite not fitting into the typical mold.
Video after the jump
With their offseason shopping essentially complete, the Yankees splurged for one more reliever earlier this week, signing David Aardsma to a one-year contract with a club option for 2013. The terms are hilariously team friendly, as the right-hander will make just $500,000 in 2012 with another $500,000 in available incentives. The option is also worth $500,000 as well, and any incentives he earns in 2012 will raise his 2013 salary by the same amount. At most, they’ll have to pay him $2 million over the next two years after he made $4.5 million in 2011 alone.
Of course, Aardsma is damaged goods. The 30-year-old didn’t pitch at all last season due to hip trouble and later elbow problems that required Tommy John surgery. He’s expected back in August, but GM Brian Cashman said the signing has more to do with 2013 than it does 2012.
As a life-long Toronto Blue Jays fan it’s not easy to like the Yankees. As a prospect analyst, though, I can’t help but love the organization’s minor league system. Even when New York has “hiccups” with its draft philosophy, the system manages to churn out and develop all-star caliber players, which also says a lot about the organization’s scouts and minor league development staff. The talent well is not going to run dry any time soon in New York.
1. Manny Banuelos, LHP
BORN: March 13, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd
With the trade of Jesus Montero to Seattle, Banuelos moves up the organizational ladder and into the No. 1 prospect hole. The southpaw is probably about a year away from joining the Yankees’ starting rotation, once he finds a little more consistency with both his fastball command and his overall control. He opened the year with 95.1 innings of work in double-A, where he posted a 4.01 FIP (3.59 ERA) and a walk rate of 4.91 BB/9. Moved up to triple-A for 34.1 more innings Banuelos managed a 3.90 FIP (4.19 ERA) and a walk rate of 4.98 BB/9. Another 100-120 innings in triple-A would definitely be of benefit to the lefty, who features an 89-94 mph fastball, a curveball and a changeup. All three pitches flash the potential to be above-average or plus, giving him a shot at developing into a No. 1 starter in the most dangerous league in Major League Baseball.
Jorge Posada spoiled the Yankees for more than a decade, providing well-above-average production at a position where the expected output is next to nil. Russell Martin took over catching duties in the Bronx last year after being non-tendered by the Dodgers, giving his new club a .325 wOBA (100 wRC+) in 476 plate appearances. There are no great metrics for catcher defense, but Martin has a reputation as a strong defender and reportedly lived up to that billing last year. All told, he gave his team approximately three wins more than a replacement level backstop.
The Yankees retained control of their new catcher as an arbitration-eligible player this year, signing him to a one-year pact worth $7.5 million in January. The Wall Street Journal’s Dan Barbarisi reported yesterday that the two sides first tried to hammer out a three-year contract, but talks never went beyond the initial stages. Chad Jennings of The Journal News has a quote from Martin…
“My agent and the Yankees talked a little bit about an extension,” Martin said. “Including this year, they were talking about three years. That’s where the conversation ended. They didn’t really throw any numbers out there. Well, they did, but I’m not going to throw them out there.”
Given the dearth of quality catching around the league, it would behoove the Yankees to revisit talks at some point to try to secure one of the game’s rarest assets — a quality catcher in his prime years — for the foreseeable future.
If the Yankees’ stable of position players was missing one thing, it was a left-handed power bat to come off the bench. Today, the Yankees signed Raul Ibanez to a one-year deal, ostensibly to fill that hole. Ibanez, however, has rapidly felt the effects of aging of late. Can he provide enough of a punch off the bench to help the Yankees in 2012?
It’s about time.
Although it’s only been a little more than a week since the A.J. Burnett coverage started, it feels like it has just gone on and on. Especially in this dead time of baseball news — Brett Tomko signed with the Reds? Ooh! — the movement of any significant player can draw the full attention of baseball obsessives. Thankfully, the Yankees and Pirates finally pulled the trigger Friday. The Yankees will eat a little over half of Burnett’s remaining contract, and in return the Pirates will receive two prospects: right-handed reliever Diego Moreno and outfielder and Name of the Year candidate Exicardo Coyones.
Intentional walks (IBB) are usually given to good and/or unprotected players in a lineup. Pitchers would rather face the next, weaker hitting batter. The IBBs lead to an inflated walk rate (BB%) for hitters. By removing IBB from a player’s BB%, a true walk rate emerges. A problem I noticed was that when a player’s IBB% increases so does their non-intentional walk rate (NIBB%). Here is an attempt at putting some numbers behind the assumption.
Spring Training is dangerously close these days, and once it starts, so do the position battles. All around Florida and Arizona you’ll see players fighting to win that last bullpen spot, platoon outfield job, rotation spot, etc. Many players who lose these battles will simply report back to Triple-A and work to get back to the show at some point, but others don’t have that option. They’re quite literally out of options.
To make a long story short, an out of options player is someone who has used up all three of their minor league options, meaning they were sent to the minors for at least 20 days in three different seasons. Once a player is out of options, he can’t be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers. As you probably know, a few of these guys will end up being traded over the next six weeks as their club looks to get some kind of return rather than lose them on the waiver wire for nothing.
MLB Trade Rumors put together a comprehensive list of this year’s out of options players, so let’s sort through the names to find some players that are useful, but just not to their current teams.
First of all, yes, I’ll admit it: I’m eating my words right now. After writing my aggressively-headlined “Good Luck Shopping A.J. Burnett, Yanks” piece on Wednesday, it turns out the Yankees have found at least one potential suitor for Burnett in the Pirates. The two sides are still haggling over how much money the Yankees should eat, but considering the Yankees’ incentive to get rid of Burnett, it seems likely that a deal will happen eventually.
Trading Burnett is a no-brainer for the Yankees; they would be freeing up payroll space while simultaneously opening up a spot in their rotation for Phil Hughes or Freddy Garcia. But why would the Pirates be interested in adding Burnett?
As it turns out, the Pirates are in a unique predicament that makes them one of the few teams in the majors in a position to add Burnett. They have a weak rotation, headlined by the enigmatic Charlie Morton (who had off-season surgery and is doubtful for the beginning of the season) and the injury-prone Erik Bedard, and they have been rebuffed by numerous free agent pitchers this offseason. They offered Edwin Jackson a three-year deal, but he turned it down in favor of taking a one-year deal with the Nationals; they also attempted to woo Roy Oswalt, but he has limited his search to a handful of contending teams.
Burnett is no Oswalt or Jackson. He has upside in Pittsburgh’s park — which is considerably less home-run-prone than Yankee Stadium — but he’s still only a +2 to +3 win pitcher who is under contract for two more seasons. He’s not the final piece that will allow them to put together a competitive team, and he’s not going to be able to compensate for the other holes in the Pirates’ rotation. He’s an improvement and will likely come at a good value — although the Yankees had better be ready to pony up more dough — but why are the Pirates spending their resources on a mediocre upgrade?
Teams that have struggled for a long period of time have a vicious cycle holding them down, making it difficult for them to become contenders. Losing teams generally have weaker revenue streams than successful teams, and they face the added challenge of the top free agents typically don’t want to go to a perpetually losing team, even if they are offering boatloads of money.
Based on this offseason’s progression, it seems like the Pirates are stuck in that position. They have some exciting young position players, but they desperately need to add pitching depth if they want to take their club to the next level. And even if A.J. Burnett doesn’t solve all their problems, he’s got three things going for him: he’s a step in the right direction, he’ll come at a fair value, and he isn’t going to say no. Even an incremental upgrade might make it more likely that the next player the Pirates pursue will say yes.
