Yesterday afternoon, Jayson Stark considered the question, “Is the MLB’s competitive balance a joke?” His answer was a rather blunt no:

MLB’s competitive balance is NOT a joke.

It beats the NFL.

It beats the league formerly known as the NBA.

And … I can prove it.

Stark’s method of proving it — plucking facts from the recent playoff series and comparing them generally to the NFL and other major leagues — was less than rigorous. In general, I agreed with his assertion: Parity in the MLB exists naturally far more than any other sports league.

HOWEVER, if my foot has less gangrene than your foot, does that mean I don’t need a doctor? No. I probably still need a doctor, and I probably need to stop playing barefoot tag on Rusty Nails Pier.

Relative success does not necessitate absolute success. And frankly, I feel the “parity” in the MLB indeed has a gangrene of sorts, a disease that is causing only specific segments of the league to rot while the rest hum along uncaring.

Of course, it is one thing to suspect something and demand more research, but it is another to pull the sabermetrician stocking over your head and answer that suspicion with a Falcon Punch of data.

Let’s do just that.
Read the rest of this entry »

Draft picks are going to bust far more often than not in this game — even highly-touted first rounders. The further away you get from the top of the first round, though, the more the bust potential increases. Few first rounders have busted as hard as Andrew Brackman, not just in terms of his failure to contribute to the team that drafted him, but also in terms of how much he cost.

Read the rest of this entry »

Thanks to Patrick Newman for his help in writing and researching this article.

Judging from the first responders to the coming storm over the Pacific, this title bears repeating: Yu Darvish is not Daisuke Matsuzaka. The natural search for comps, paired with the disappointment that was Matsuzaka’s career, will lead to suspicion when it comes to the newest ace slated to come over from Japan. Why should it work out this time if it didn’t work out the last couple times? But there are real differences between the two pitchers that could use a little emphasis.

Consider this list your consolation if you are dumbfounded by the posting fee that your team will spend simply for the right to speak with Darvish.

Read the rest of this entry »

CC Sabathia is back with the Yankees, even though he never left in the first place. With the deadline for his opt-out clause looming last night, the big left-hander and the team got together to hammer out a new contract extension that has a pretty good chance to keep him in pinstripes for the rest of his career. In the simplest of terms, here’s the money breakdown…

2012-2015: $23M per season
2016: $25M
2017: $25M vesting option with $5M buyout

The first four years are still covered by the original seven-year, $161M contract Sabathia signed with New York prior to the 2009 season. The 2016 season starts the new extension, and the 2017 vesting option is dependent on the health of his prized left shoulder. If shoulder problems cause him to a) finish the season on the DL, b) spend 45 days on the DL, or c) shift to a relief role during the 2016 season, the option is null and void. All told, the total package is worth five years and $122M, or $2M more than buddy Cliff Lee got from the Phillies last winter.

Read the rest of this entry »

With a classic World Series — the most exciting in a long time, if not the best-played or best-managed — now over, it is time to hand out individual awards for the 2011 regular season. Sure, some people are anticipating the Cy Young, MVP, and Rookie of the Year announcements, but I bet true baseball fans really pumped for stuff like today’s award, which attempts to measure how much a hitter has contributed to his team’s wins beyond what traditional linear weights indicates. Who is 2011’s King of Little Things?

Read the rest of this entry »

Near the beginning of last night’s World Series Game Four, which ended up being the Greatest Game in World Series History Pitched by a 14-year old, Joe Buck and Tim McCarver were discussing Lance Berkman, specifically his status as one of the most productive switch-hitters in major-league history. Now, I usually believe everything people on TV say. For example, when Tim McCarver asserts, as he has during this season’s Fall Classic, that “Michael Young didn’t complain” when asked to change positions for Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre, or that “Tony La Russa doesn’t lie,” I just take it at face value. However, while I agree that Berkman is and has been an excellent player who may have even have Hall of Fame credentials, I thought I should both trust and verify. How does Berkman compare to the other great switch-hitters in major-league history, and who exactly are they?

Read the rest of this entry »

Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

Read the rest of this entry »

Many fans in New York are probably still in shock over the Yankees’ early expulsion from the 2011 playoffs. The truth is, though, that the dynasty is waning. That’s not to say that it’s over, by any means, but the unstoppable juggernaut of years past has been affected by Father Time.

The majority of the players that make up the team’s core are over 30 years old, including C.C. Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, A.J. Burnett, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher. Even Curtis Granderson, a breakout 2011 player, is already 30. Although it’s hard to fathom, within a few years Rivera, Posada, Jeter, and even Rodriguez will be retired from the game.

What does this mean for the Yankees? Is there an existing core of somewhat youthful players that the organization can use to rebuild – or perhaps renovate is a better word – its dynasty.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ivan Nova’s rookie season ended on a sour note Thursday night with a strained forearm and a loss to Detroit. While his campaign probably received a bit too much attention as a result of his gaudy win total, the 24-year-old’s season could hardly qualify as anything less than a success. Nova ranked fourth among all rookie pitchers with a 2.7 WAR and seventh in xFIP among rookies with at least 100 innings this season.

What makes Nova’s case particularly interesting is that before the 2009 season, the San Diego Padres selected him in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft. Just days before the season began, Nova was tendered back to the Yankees after giving up eight runs in 8.2 innings of relief work during Cactus League play. The Rule 5 success stories that baseball fans most-often cite are the cases like Johan Santana, Joakim Soria and Josh Hamilton — where players went on to become valuable pieces for their new teams. But when do Rule 5 players become successes after being returned to the team that had once given up on them?

Read the rest of this entry »

CC Sabathia fronted a surprisingly effective Yankees rotation that helped the Bronx Bombers win a league-best 97 games. He threw 237.1 innings of top-notch baseball, tallying 7.1 WAR and improving virtually every aspect of his game. It’s even arguable that he pitched on par with Justin Verlander.

Once normalizing adjustments are made to their successes on balls in play, the gap shrinks substantially. At worst, he was second best. This was Sabathia’s best season since 2008 — when he tore the National League apart with the Brewers — and the fantastic numbers could not have come at a more opportune time. Despite his tremendous contract, Sabathia may choose to exercise his opt-out clause after the season and hit the free agent market.

When the Yankees signed Sabathia to a 7-yr, $161 million contract, the team further enticed the big man with such perks as: a no trade clause, semimonthly payments over the entire calendar year (not just the season) and suites on road trips. Perhaps the most enticing aspect of their offer, however, was the ability to opt out after three years.

Such clauses feel more player-friendly than beneficial to the team, because they enable a player performing well, already signed to a lucrative deal, to cash in even more. Further, it prevents the team from sustaining its surplus value on the contract if the player outperforms the deal.

Opting out certainly carries risk. If the market has a dearth of suitors and none are enthralled with the idea of throwing gobs of money at a single player, he who has opted out may end up signing for less than the remaining portion of the original contract. With Sabathia, the choice boils down to whether he thinks he can find a better deal than the 4-yr/$92 million remaining on his Yankees contract. If there are strong indications a better deal can be had, Sabathia will likely opt out, but he won’t exactly be able to fall back on the 4-yr/$92 million left if all else falls through.

Read the rest of this entry »