Episode Eighty-Seven
In which accounts and descriptions abound.
Headlines
The Story of the Rays’ Game 162 — Told by People Who Were There!
Featuring
Mike Axisa, FanGraphs and River Ave Blues
Tommy Rancel, FanGraphs and ESPN 1040 Tampa
Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 30 min. play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Episode Eighty-Six
In which baseball sells itself.
Headlines
The Events of September 28th — Recapitulated!
The Saddest Story Ever — Told Briefly!
The 2011 Playoffs — Super-Previewed!
Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 45 min. play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
From Dirk Hayhurst’s Twitter:
“You know what would be really cool…”
~Baseball Gods, right before THIS all happened.
They’re calling it “Wild Wednesday,” and it was, but it was also Wild Twenty-Aught-Eleven. The Tampa Bay Rays closed the books on their 2011 campaign with one of the craziest nights in baseball history and one of the most absurd paths to the postseason ever.
At 12:03 a.m. ET this morning, Robert Andino hit a sinking line drive to left field off Jonathon Papelbon. Carl Crawford charged the ball, but it popped off his glove and Nolan Reimold dove onto home plate, giving the Orioles a 4-3 win. The first Orioles player to reach Andino chest-bumped him to the ground — maybe knocking the wind out of him — as the cameras watched the Baltimore bench fall onto his seemingly-frightened and breathless face.
At 12:05 a.m., Evan Longoria reached out — almost into the other batter’s box — to foul off a slider from New York Yankees pitcher Scott Proctor, holding the count at two balls, two strikes. Longoria exhaled deeply, puffing his cheeks like a trombone player, as Scott Proctor wound for the next pitch. It was a fastball away that got lost and asked Longo for directions.
“Two-two and line SHOT! DOWN THE LEFT FIELD LIIIIINE! THAT BALL IS GONE!!!” Rays television announcer Dewayne Staats called, presumably leaning out of the booth to watch as Longoria’s 31st homer ricocheted around behind the Crawford Cutout — a low wall added so then-Ray Carl Crawford could rob a few extra home runs.
Last night’s (and this morning’s) Rays game was beyond spectacular (for non-Red Sox fans, that is; my condolences to the northeast). It was parts Spring Training game (with the parade of Yankees pitchers), parts Little League World Series (with the Rays using nearly the entirety of their bench in key roles), and all parts unbelievable.
The 2011 Rays season has shown that though baseball is about probabilities, it is probabilities with replacement — truly any event can occur with the very next pitch, even if it happened just a few innings ago — or if it has never happened before.
Read the rest of this entry »
Going into tonight’s action, the common assumptions seems to be that the Yankees are going to coast on into the playoffs. They have already clinched the division and home field advantage, and since they got most of their regular starters and bullpen arms work yesterday, they have little incentive to play their hardest on Wednesday night. Why work yourselves hard in a meaningless game? Why risk injuries to your players when you have nothing to play for?
But I’m not sure that the predominating narrative is correct in this case. Joe Girardi has already said that he’s planning on starting many of his regulars tonight — although who knows how long he’ll keep them in the game — and he seems to be practicing some “gamesmanship” by choosing not to announce his starter until closer to game time. Could it be that the Yankees are treating tonight’s game more seriously than many people are assuming?
If they are, I have to tip my cap to the Yanks for looking past their history with the Red Sox and realizing the larger fact: it’s in their own best interest if the Red Sox to make the playoffs.
That’s right, Yankees fans. As horrible as it may sound, you should probably be rooting for the Red Sox tonight.
Yesterday, I tackled the Tigers rotation, and when writing these sorts of pieces, I begin to appreciate Jim Leyland just a little bit — he keeps thing simple. Joe Girardi is anything but simple — there are several options on the table for the Yankees as they set up their postseason rotation. The way the American League schedule lines up, teams technically don’t need a fourth starter until Game 4 of the ALCS, provided they are willing to throw their Game 1 ALDS starter on three days rest in Game 4 of the ALDS (should such a thing be necessary, that is). Since we know that CC Sabathia is not one to shy away from such assignments, there is a good chance that the Yankees could roll with just three starters in the Division Series.
But who will that third starter be? Freddy Garcia seems to be the odds-on favorite at the moment, but Girardi could very well stand by A.J. Burnett. The decision could boil down to who the Yanks face in the Division Series, as Garcia has some impressive superficial numbers against the Tigers. At the moment though, those seem to be the only two candidates, as a back injury to Phil Hughes and the decreased velocity from Bartolo Colon seem to have relegated them to bullpen candidates at best. Nothing is set in stone, but it appears that Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Garcia and Burnett will be the Yankees’ four horsemen of the playoffcalypse, so we’ll focus on them.
CC Sabathia: 3.00 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 75 xFIP-, 3.77 K/BB, 0.64 HR/9, 7.0 WAR
Since his rookie season of 2001, only one pitcher that has thrown more innings than Sabathia (Mark Buehrle) and only one pitcher has been more valuable (Roy Halladay). Simply put, Sabathia is the cream of the crop, and this year has been no different, as he has posted career bests in FIP, xFIP and SIERA. He has worked his curveball back into the mix this year, throwing his fastball and changeup a little bit less. He’s also been more efficient this year, getting to 0-1 more frequently, upping his K% and lowering his BB%. Neither of the latter percentages are career bests, but they are his best marks since coming to the Yankees. He has been better at home than on the road, but A) he’ll make most of his starts at home, and B) any pitcher would kill for Sabathia’s road numbers — his 3.26 road xFIP this year ranks 13th in the game.
Ivan Nova: 3.70 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 103 xFIP-, 1.72 K/BB, 0.71 HR/9, 2.6 WAR
Let’s be clear — Nova’s here because of a little help from his friends. Of the five Yankees pitchers who tossed more than 100 innings this year, Nova’s RS/GS and RS/IP are the highest, and it’s not all that close either. In fact, only three pitchers in the game had a better RS/GS than Nova — Tim Wakefield, Derek Holland and John Lackey — and only Holland, Lackey, Jon Lester and Wakefield had a better RS/IP. Having said that, Nova has taken advantage of the opportunity his shiny wins total has afforded him. In the second half, he has kept the ball on the ground while cutting his walk totals. If there is one concern with Nova, it’s that he’s been much better on the road (3.51 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.92 xFIP) than he has been at home (4.19 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 4.45 xFIP) in his two years in the Majors, so I’m not sure the Yankees are set up to get optimal value out of him by pitching him in Game 2 (and potentially Game 5) of the ALDS, which will/would both be in the Bronx.
Freddy Garcia: 3.62 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 108 xFIP-, 2.13 K/BB, 0.98 HR/9, 2.1 WAR
Garcia doesn’t do anything terrible impressive. Among Yankees’ starters this season, the only thing that he has been the team leader in is HR/FB, and he leads in that category by the slimmest, essentially non-existent margin. But what he has been is reliable. In comparing him to A.J. Burnett, we see that Garcia has only produced a negative WPA in 38% of his starts, whereas Burnett stands at 59%. Burnett has also been torched more frequently, as he has had eight starts this season with a -.200 WPA or worse, compared to just four times from Garcia. When you have a killer offense, you don’t necessarily have to have a three-hit shutout, you just want the game kept within reason. Garcia has shown he can do that with greater regularity than has Burnett, and as such is the leader in the clubhouse for the Game 3 nod.
A.J. Burnett: 5.16 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 95 xFIP-, 2.08 K/BB, 1.47 HR/9, 1.4 WAR
I want it all: the terrifying lows, the dizzying highs, the creamy middles. — Homer Simpson
Yes, A.J. Burnett would be Homer’s kind of pitcher. Virtually any kind of performance is on the table when Burnett pitches, but after his strikeout rate bottomed out last year, it looked like we may have seen the last of the dizzying highs. However, he has rebounded nicely this season, posting an above-league average 20.7%. He has also brought his GB/FB ratio back to the level it was at in his last season north of the border. And that’s what makes his home run totals so head-scratching — he’s permitted fewer fly balls than he has each of the past two seasons, but has been tagged for more homers anyway. This has been especially troublesome in the second half. In the first half, Burnett was carrying a high but not quite string-of-obscenities high 14.3% HR/FB, but in the second-half, he has been tuned up for a truly mystifying 22.2%. Fortunately for the Yankees, it’s a pace that simply isn’t sustainable. There will be regression coming for Burnett — the question is will it come in time.
Let’s not forget Colon in all of this. As of this writing, Girardi has not ruled him out for the postseason rotation, and while his velocity has decreased while his ERA has increased in the second half, his FIP and xFIP over the past 30 days are both better than that of Burnett or Garcia, and his xFIP is better than Nova’s. He has still been efficient with his pitches in that timeframe too, as his 5.00 K/BB is better than any other Yankees’ starter, Sabathia included. Still, signs point to him not being in the mix at this point. We’ll see if his start in Tampa tonight changes things.
The Yankees rotation is not as dominant as Detroit’s, but Sabathia, Nova and Garcia have been a healthy mix of good and dependable, and a fourth starter — be it Burnett, Colon or Hughes — may not be needed in any of the Yankees’ first eight postseason games, giving Girardi the luxury of putting off his decision for nearly two weeks. The composition of the Yankees’ rotation has been a complex thing all season, and remains so now, but chances are that once they make up their minds, it will be effective.
Tomorrow: Texas Rangers
Today on ESPN.com, one of the top baseball stories details Brian Cashman’s feigned interest in signing Carl Crawford over the offseason. This revelation isn’t actually new — Jack Curry of YES Network published the same news back in December — but the ESPN story does add one interesting quote to the story. Observe:
“I actually had dinner with the agent to pretend that we were actually involved and drive the price up,” Cashman said. “The outfield wasn’t an area of need, but everybody kept writing Crawford, Crawford, Crawford, Crawford. And I was like, ‘I feel like we’ve got Carl Crawford in Brett Gardner, except he costs more than $100 million less, with less experience.’
I made the claim earlier this season that Brett Gardner is an elite player, and it was met with mixed reactions. Some agree that Gardner’s decent hitting and great defense make him great; others find the claim of great defense too steeped in his great UZR. But now, courtesy of Brian Cashman, we have a suitable point of comparison from a person in a position of baseball authority. Carl Crawford was a four-time All-Star with the Rays and a gold glove winner. No sane person would argue he wasn’t an elite player with the Rays.
Detractors of advanced statistics love to point out specific instances where the advanced and traditional stats don’t align, as evidence that the saber-stats are far from perfect. You mean to tell me that Derek Jeter isn’t good at defense? That Ben Zobrist is as valuable as Robinson Cano? Or that Tim Raines deserves a Hall of Fame vote? Many of these sort of statements go against people’s first reactions and assumptions, making the stats backing them up an easy target for ridicule.
But these sort of debates miss the larger point: quite often, advanced stats agree with traditional assessments. Torii Hunter was dang good at defense there for a while, and players like Cal Ripken Jr. and Ricky Henderson easily deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. Sports fans like to argue, though, and what fun is it debating topics with only one side? It’s much more entertaining to talk about things that are contentious, and as such, the distances between mainstream and saber stats can look like a gaping chasm when in actuality, it’s more like a meandering brook with handy stepping stones.
Enter Mariano Rivera. As you have surely heard, Mariano Rivera got his 602nd save yesterday, passing Trevor Hoffman on the all-time list and entering into first place all by his lonesome. As much as us saberists love to disparage the save, this record highlights an all too evident truth: Mo is the best relief pitcher of all time. And it’s not even close.
We had so much fun hanging out in San Francisco that we thought we’d do it again. This time, we’re bringing together Mets and Yankees (and, really, any baseball) fans for one of the last days they can all enjoy baseball — together.
And, sure, we’ll leave some football on one of the televisions, okay.
On Sunday, September 25th, we’ll blow the horn for FanGraphs East and announce happy hour drinks and our own private space for our particular brand of nerdery. Come to Amity Hall any time after one PM eastern, and we’ll be hanging out, talking baseball and enjoying happy hour prices. And there will be a ton of togetherness because really how much can you hate a Mets fan right now. Oh! Also, come downstairs. We’ve got the downstairs bar.
And this is who will be hanging out:
David Appelman, FanGraphs Dark Overlord, so dark
Mike Podhorzer, Serious about (fantasy) baseball, RotoGraphs
Eno Sarris, Fan of Graphs, Fan, Not and Roto
Niv Shah, ottoneu founder and Cleveland Midges fan
Craig Glaser, Bloomberg Sports’ goggled superhero and Mets fan
Amanda Rykoff, espnW contributor, beer lover and Yankees fan
James Kannengeiser, professional curmudgeon and Amazin Avenue writer
Chris McShane, Amazin Avenue backbone, ready to dance
Eric Simon, Amazin Avenue head honcho guy, generally nice dude
Mike Axisa, aka “Mike from RAB, FanGraphs & Trade Rumors,” you know, just Mike
Ben Kabak, River Avenue Blues!
Joe Pawlikowski, music lover, FanGraphs escapee and River Avenue Blueser
So I’m sure there will be some enjoyable conversations. Exciting even.
If you are under 21 years old, you may come to the event, but you’ll have to check in with me. The bar may want you to wear a bracelet to identify you. Annoying, but at least you’ll get to hang out and have burgers and sodas.
The MLB season is drawing to a close, which means it’s about time for rampant speculation about next year’s free agents. One of my favorite off-season storylines is that of the east Asian baseball markets both giving and absorbing talent.
This past off season, we witnessed the likes of Chad Tracy, Wladimir Balentien, and Micah Hoffpauer head west to the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league while Japan sent Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Ryan Vogelsong Minnesota and California’s way.
Let’s look at the present NPB league statistics, so we can start writing our wishlists and dreaming about next year’s rosters.
The New York Yankees could be in big trouble once the post-season rolls around. At least, that’s what some columnists might try to tell you. Despite the fact that the Yankees have all but clinched a playoff spot — and lead the league in run differential — there’s panic in the streets of New York over the pitching rotation. While the rotation has been pretty solid this season — as Yankee starters rank sixth in WAR — there are question marks surrounding every member of the rotation excluding CC Sabathia. With the post-season rapidly approaching, let’s take a look at the candidates for the number two slot in the Yankees post-season rotation.
Read the rest of this entry »
