Sabathia’s Opt-Out Prospects

CC Sabathia fronted a surprisingly effective Yankees rotation that helped the Bronx Bombers win a league-best 97 games. He threw 237.1 innings of top-notch baseball, tallying 7.1 WAR and improving virtually every aspect of his game. It’s even arguable that he pitched on par with Justin Verlander.

Once normalizing adjustments are made to their successes on balls in play, the gap shrinks substantially. At worst, he was second best. This was Sabathia’s best season since 2008 — when he tore the National League apart with the Brewers — and the fantastic numbers could not have come at a more opportune time. Despite his tremendous contract, Sabathia may choose to exercise his opt-out clause after the season and hit the free agent market.

When the Yankees signed Sabathia to a 7-yr, $161 million contract, the team further enticed the big man with such perks as: a no trade clause, semimonthly payments over the entire calendar year (not just the season) and suites on road trips. Perhaps the most enticing aspect of their offer, however, was the ability to opt out after three years.

Such clauses feel more player-friendly than beneficial to the team, because they enable a player performing well, already signed to a lucrative deal, to cash in even more. Further, it prevents the team from sustaining its surplus value on the contract if the player outperforms the deal.

Opting out certainly carries risk. If the market has a dearth of suitors and none are enthralled with the idea of throwing gobs of money at a single player, he who has opted out may end up signing for less than the remaining portion of the original contract. With Sabathia, the choice boils down to whether he thinks he can find a better deal than the 4-yr/$92 million remaining on his Yankees contract. If there are strong indications a better deal can be had, Sabathia will likely opt out, but he won’t exactly be able to fall back on the 4-yr/$92 million left if all else falls through.

For Sabathia, the market is plentiful. Aside from the less expensive C.J. Wilson, no ace pitchers are set to hit the market. Sabathia would vault to the top of shopping lists upon opting out. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has already speculated that the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants would show instant interest. It seems plausible that the Cubs could join the sweepstakes.

Even lower-payrolled up-and-comers like the Blue Jays and Nationals could attempt to woo Sabathia in an attempt to make a ginormous splash.

Sabathia will draw interest if he opts out. Though the acronym TINSTAAPP — there is no such thing as a pitching prospect — is primarily derived from the attrition rates and injury potential of pitchers, Sabathia has been incredibly durable throughout his career. His frame may cause some concern, especially heading into his late-30s, but he just turned 30 years old and has made 30 or more starts in every season of his 11-year career except 2006, when he started 28 games. His training regimen and pitching mechanics seem capable of supporting his large frame. Sure, he could “break” at any given moment, but nothing in his career should lead to skepticism that he can stay on the mound.

From 2006-on, Sabathia has not tallied less than 5 WAR in a season. He ranks second in baseball in cumulative pitcher WAR throughout that span, trailing Roy Halladay. And really, the 2-WAR difference (40.9 for Doc, 38.9 for CC) is minuscule. A larger gap exists between Sabathia, Dan Haren and Verlander — the latter pair is tied at 32.3. His prime may soon be over, but Sabathia has shown no signs of slowing down. While a 4-yr/$92 million contract would benefit the Yankees, or any other team for that matter, the mechanics of his contract allow him to sign another monster seven year deal.

Given the typical cost of a win, now and into the future, an expected decline of approximately a half-win per season, and the potential for inflation, Sabathia projects out to approximately $175-$185 million over a seven year contract. What makes the situation more interesting is that this isn’t shaping up to mirror Alex Rodriguez’s re-negotiations either, where the Centaur basically had one true bidder: the Yankees.

It’s easy to conflate opting out with losing desire to play for a specific team, but that isn’t always the case. Sabathia may very well want to continue pitching for the Yankees, but under terms more commensurate with his performance. The Yankees aren’t likely to let their ace leave over lack of effort, but if he decides to opt out, don’t be shocked if he has numerous lucrative offers to consider. He’s that good, and that valuable, and appears capable of star-level performance for another half-decade.





Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

39 Comments
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Slappy Gilmore
12 years ago

Why is it that CC has a 7.1 WAR and Hamels 4.9 when they have identical FIP’s ? Hamles has the better K/BB ratio and better GB % as well.

Nick V
12 years ago
Reply to  Slappy Gilmore

Better competition, more innings. Think David Ortiz vs. Ricky Nolasco…

ecp
12 years ago
Reply to  Nick V

How can one really compare David Ortiz to Ricky Nolasco?

Nick V
12 years ago
Reply to  Nick V

David Ortiz is a DH, Ricky Nolasco is a pitcher. Both are hitters.

ethan
12 years ago
Reply to  Nick V

your gay

jim
12 years ago
Reply to  Slappy Gilmore

they had the same xFIP, not FIP. xFIP is not used in the fWAR calculation. but yeah, even if they had the same FIP, the AL east > NL east, and he threw 20 more innings

Ableem
12 years ago
Reply to  jim

So WAR is division-adjusted? I didn’t think it was.

jim
12 years ago
Reply to  jim

FIP is league adjusted, and therefore WAR is as well. it may not be division adjusted, but it’s still worth noting that sabathia faced tougher opponents than hamels did on a regular basis. mind you i’m only coming to that conclusion by eyeballing game logs, if someone were to determine opponent wOBA for the two it would reveal whether that point were true or not.

Slartibartfast
12 years ago
Reply to  jim

Lot of half wrong information in this thread….

– FIP is NOT adjusted for anything. FIP is a simple formula based simply on the three true outcomes: K/BB/HR

(13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP + a constant which is derivative of the run environment

– WAR is adjusted for park and league, but NOT for individual opponents on a player per player basis.

IE, Sabathia gets an adjustment for pitching in Yankee Stadium for half his games, and for pitching against superior AL hitters as a whole, but NOT for specifically facing the Red Sox, Jacoby/AGone/Papi etc X times a year.

jim
12 years ago
Reply to  jim

@slart

“FIP is NOT adjusted for anything. FIP is a simple formula based simply on the three true outcomes: K/BB/HR

(13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP + *a constant which is derivative of the run environment*”

(emphasis added)

right, a constant which is adjusted to scale the average FIP to the average ERA in each league.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/

NoneOfYourBusiness
12 years ago
Reply to  Slappy Gilmore

Because CC pitches in the AL and Hamels pitches in the NL. CC has tougher lineups to face then Cole that’s why.

Cidron
12 years ago

yeah, Cole doesnt have to face the Phillies bats (save for when it doesnt count)