Sabathia’s Opt-Out Prospects

CC Sabathia fronted a surprisingly effective Yankees rotation that helped the Bronx Bombers win a league-best 97 games. He threw 237.1 innings of top-notch baseball, tallying 7.1 WAR and improving virtually every aspect of his game. It’s even arguable that he pitched on par with Justin Verlander.

Once normalizing adjustments are made to their successes on balls in play, the gap shrinks substantially. At worst, he was second best. This was Sabathia’s best season since 2008 — when he tore the National League apart with the Brewers — and the fantastic numbers could not have come at a more opportune time. Despite his tremendous contract, Sabathia may choose to exercise his opt-out clause after the season and hit the free agent market.

When the Yankees signed Sabathia to a 7-yr, $161 million contract, the team further enticed the big man with such perks as: a no trade clause, semimonthly payments over the entire calendar year (not just the season) and suites on road trips. Perhaps the most enticing aspect of their offer, however, was the ability to opt out after three years.

Such clauses feel more player-friendly than beneficial to the team, because they enable a player performing well, already signed to a lucrative deal, to cash in even more. Further, it prevents the team from sustaining its surplus value on the contract if the player outperforms the deal.

Opting out certainly carries risk. If the market has a dearth of suitors and none are enthralled with the idea of throwing gobs of money at a single player, he who has opted out may end up signing for less than the remaining portion of the original contract. With Sabathia, the choice boils down to whether he thinks he can find a better deal than the 4-yr/$92 million remaining on his Yankees contract. If there are strong indications a better deal can be had, Sabathia will likely opt out, but he won’t exactly be able to fall back on the 4-yr/$92 million left if all else falls through.

For Sabathia, the market is plentiful. Aside from the less expensive C.J. Wilson, no ace pitchers are set to hit the market. Sabathia would vault to the top of shopping lists upon opting out. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has already speculated that the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants would show instant interest. It seems plausible that the Cubs could join the sweepstakes.

Even lower-payrolled up-and-comers like the Blue Jays and Nationals could attempt to woo Sabathia in an attempt to make a ginormous splash.

Sabathia will draw interest if he opts out. Though the acronym TINSTAAPP — there is no such thing as a pitching prospect — is primarily derived from the attrition rates and injury potential of pitchers, Sabathia has been incredibly durable throughout his career. His frame may cause some concern, especially heading into his late-30s, but he just turned 30 years old and has made 30 or more starts in every season of his 11-year career except 2006, when he started 28 games. His training regimen and pitching mechanics seem capable of supporting his large frame. Sure, he could “break” at any given moment, but nothing in his career should lead to skepticism that he can stay on the mound.

From 2006-on, Sabathia has not tallied less than 5 WAR in a season. He ranks second in baseball in cumulative pitcher WAR throughout that span, trailing Roy Halladay. And really, the 2-WAR difference (40.9 for Doc, 38.9 for CC) is minuscule. A larger gap exists between Sabathia, Dan Haren and Verlander — the latter pair is tied at 32.3. His prime may soon be over, but Sabathia has shown no signs of slowing down. While a 4-yr/$92 million contract would benefit the Yankees, or any other team for that matter, the mechanics of his contract allow him to sign another monster seven year deal.

Given the typical cost of a win, now and into the future, an expected decline of approximately a half-win per season, and the potential for inflation, Sabathia projects out to approximately $175-$185 million over a seven year contract. What makes the situation more interesting is that this isn’t shaping up to mirror Alex Rodriguez’s re-negotiations either, where the Centaur basically had one true bidder: the Yankees.

It’s easy to conflate opting out with losing desire to play for a specific team, but that isn’t always the case. Sabathia may very well want to continue pitching for the Yankees, but under terms more commensurate with his performance. The Yankees aren’t likely to let their ace leave over lack of effort, but if he decides to opt out, don’t be shocked if he has numerous lucrative offers to consider. He’s that good, and that valuable, and appears capable of star-level performance for another half-decade.