The Houston Astros entered the season with a weak minor league system and I ranked it 27th overall (out of 30) back in March 2012. Since that time, though, General Manager Jeff Luhnow and his staff have worked hard to improve the system through trades – and at times getting back impressive value for modest MLB talent – while also having one of the best amateur drafts of any team in baseball. The result is a much-improved system that boasts more depth, as well as a number of high-ceiling prospects. The list below was fairly straight forward for me 1-8 but then got muddied with 12 to 15 prospects in play for the finally seven available spots with the 9-15 slots. Players considered in that range, that did not make the list, included the likes of Domingo Santana, Jonathan Villar, Nolan Fontana, Marc Krauss and Kevin Comer.

#1 Jonathan Singleton (1B)

Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2011 trade (with Houston)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

Singleton was the key prospect in the trade-deadline deal that sent Hunter Pence to Philadelphia in 2011. The deal also brought in fellow Top 15 prospect and pitcher Jarred Cosart, as well as outfielder Domingo Santana who just missed the list. Singleton has moved methodically through the system since the trade and spent all of 2012 in double-A where he posted a 146 wRC+ (i.e. he created 46 more runs than the average hitter in the league).

Singleton has impressive power and he showed that in 2012 by breaking the .200 isolated slugging mark for the first time in his career at .213. (Anything over .200 suggests the player is a “slugger.”) He also showed patience and a solid eye with a walk rate just shy of 16%. The big knock on Singleton throughout his career has been his propensity to strike out and 2012 was no different; he whiffed at a rate of 23.6%. A contact I spoke with said he was not worried with the strikeout rate because Singleton offsets it with power and high walk rates. “It’s not a major concern,” he said.

The contact said Singleton definitely has above-average power, and placed a future 60 grade on it, but would almost rate his hit tool above it. “It has a little length but it’s a pretty swing,” he said, adding that the 21-year-old can handle balls on both the inside and outside corners,thanks to above-average plate coverage. “It makes him very dangerous.”

Although he’s mostly been known in the past for his offensive exploits, the contact I spoke with said Singleton has the chance to be a plus defender. Previously, in an effort to find a place for his bat to play with Ryan Howard entrenched in Philly, the prospect had been given time in left field despite being a natural first baseman. Singleton will remain at first base for Houston. “He’s really plus at first base,” the talent evaluator said, adding that he has long arms and legs, stretches well, with good hands. “He creates a big target.”

Read the rest of this entry »

I published the Jays Top 15 prospect list just over a week ago but it already undergoes a transformation thanks to the (still unconfirmed) blockbuster trade between Toronto and the Miami Marlins. Justin Nicolino (5th), Jake Marisnick (6th), and Adeiny Hechavarria (10th) slide off the list and head to Florida while Anthony DeSclafani, another member of the trade, was in the 16-22 range and could very well make the Marlins’ upcoming Top 15.

#1 Travis D’Arnaud (C)

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA
Acquired: Trade (2009)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The young catcher entered 2012 as the Jays’ top prospect and he did nothing to change the lofty status, although a knee injury ended his season prematurely in June. Had he not been injured d’Arnaud likely would have made his big league debut when MLB incumbent J.P. Arencibia suffered a fracture in his hand.

d’Arnaud has the potential to be both an above-average hitter and fielder. One talent evaluator said the prospect was likely ready for the big leagues but stressed his value was behind plate and that it wasn’t overly likely that he would see time at other positions in an effort to get his bat into the lineup. Despite Arencibia’s offensive challenges the organization remains committed to him as the starter behind the plate because of the trust he’s built up with the pitching staff. The organization also recently re-signed backup Jeff Mathis to a two-year contract extension (plus an option) suggesting that d’Arnaud could become trade bait as the organization is openly working to improve the big league club – especially the pitching staff. Read the rest of this entry »

The Boston Red Sox organization boasts both high-ceiling talent and depth within the system although a number of prospects are coming off of tough seasons. The 2013 season could be a key turning point for the club as those young players look to add a little more shine back to their prospect status.

#1 Xander Bogaerts (SS)

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2009 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: AA/MLB

Bogaerts is an exciting prospect who is just beginning to get the attention he deserves from the non-Boston crowd. One of the best hitting prospects in the minors, the native of Aruba played the 2012 season at the age of 19 and reached double-A. He has an advanced hitting approach and generates outstanding power despite having a slender frame with tons of projection remaining. His pop comes from above-average bat speed.

Bogaerts had immediate success at double-A – albeit in a small sample of 23 games – but his approach deteriorated with his walk rate dropping from 9.9% in high-A to 1.0%. He’ll need to be more patient against the advanced pitching in an effort to get the best pitches to drive. A contact I spoke with said Bogaerts has a number of things working in his favor as a hitter, including pitch recognition, consistency, and the potential for plate discipline. He said the young player “gets pull happy and expands the zone a bit” and needs to focus on taking the ball back up the middle; he doesn’t need to pull the ball to hit it with authority.

When I saw him play in A-ball, Bogaerts looked extremely confident despite his inexperience and age. He was watching balls into the catcher’s mitt and taking lots of pitches. I was also impressed by his quiet batting stance and easy-to-repeat hitting mechanics.

The big question with Bogaerts is his future defensive home. Currently a shortstop, there are concerns that the 6’3” infielder could eventually get too big for the position. The contact I spoke with, though, thinks he’ll remain at his current position stating that the prospect has made “impressive fundamental improvements.” He added that Bogaerts possesses a strong arm good range and athleticism.

Now 20, the top prospect in the system could spent the entire season playingin the upper tiers ofthe minor leaguers but could also receivea brief cup of coffee in the majors at the end of the year. Bogaerts has excellent make-up and baseball intellect and should continue to excel despite the mounting attention and pressures of being a future corner stone of the franchise. The contact stated, “He has a good time playing the game and hasn’t been fazed by anything.”

Additional Notes

Early in 2011, Chris Mellen of Sox Prospects mentioned Xander Bogaerts in passing as a player to look out for once he arrived in Greenville. Little did I know Bogaerts would present as one of the best prospects I’ve scouted in person. At best, the Red Sox have an elite offensive force at the shortstop position. A more likely scenario is for Bogaerts to slide to a corner where his ceiling is that of a perennial All-Star. (Mike Newman)

#2 Matt Barnes (P)

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A/A+
Acquired: 2011 draft (19th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Selected 19th overall in 2011 in a draft that also added fellow Top 15 prospects Blake Swihart, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley and Mookie Betts into the system, Barnes dominated A-ball last season and showed continued improvements as a professional. The right-hander’s repertoire includes an above-average fastball that works in the 92-95 mph range and can touch the upper 90s. A contact I spoke with said Barnes needs to improve his fastball command, but it shows an impressive combination of velocity and life.

The prospect also has a curveball that currently flashes above-average and has the potential to be a plus pitch. The key for Barnes, I’m told, is to focus on improving his changeup in an effort to round out his repertoire. The baseball contact I spoke with said the pitcher learned a valuable lesson in 2012 when it came to the importance of the off-speed pitch. “Later in the year when he wasn’t able to rely on the fastball [due too inconsistent command], the changeup became an important weapon for him.”

When I watched Barnes pitch, I was impressed with how quickly he worked. He had an easy delivery and threw a lot of strikes, going right after the hitters. Despite his size, it appears as though he has more room to fill out and add strength to his frame. Barnes should open 2013 in double-A and could reach the majors in the second half of the season. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter and should reach it with continued polish and confidence in his abilities.

#3 Jackie Bradley (OF)

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2011 draft (40th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA/MLB

Bradley entered his junior year of college as a potential first round pick but he struggled offensively and ended up having surgery on an injured wrist. Boston wisely nabbed him with the 40th overall selection in the supplemental first round and he’s produced outstanding offensive numbers since turning pro.

The left-handed hitting outfielder reached double-A in his first full season after dominting high-A ball where he posted a 180 wRC+ in 67 games. His batting average dipped below .300 in double-A but he still produced a solid line, showing line-drive pop, a solid feel for the strike zone and held his own against southpaws. He’s not a base stealer but Bradley has some guile on the base paths. Defensively, he has the potential to be a plus defender thanks to his range, arm and instincts. As a talent evaluator stated, “Jackie is an impact defender with uncanny ability to get to the baseball.”

Bradley could open 2013 back in double-A but he should also see significant time in triple-A. He could be ready to assume a full-time position in a big league outfield by 2014. Depending on what happens with Jacoby Ellsbury, Bradley could be Boston’s center- or left-fielder of the future. His skill set could make him a solid No. 2 hitter in the line-up.

#4 Allen Webster (P)

Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2012 trade (from Dodgers)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

After making just two starts after coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers last summer during the blockbuster trade involving Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, Boston still doesn’t know exactly what they have with Webster, but they’re intrigued. A talent evaluator was impressed with what he saw in a small sample size after the trade, “The pure stuff is impressive… the fastball was consistently in the mid-90s… He has significant upside.”

That same contact stated that Webster flashed a plus breaking ball. He said the young pitcher needs to be more aggressive and attack hitters with his fastball, if he hopes to dominated as much as his stuff indicates he should. When he’s on, the right-hander produces a lot of ground-ball outs thanks to natural sinking action. Although Webster did not showcase his changeup much after switching organizations, the contact I spoke with felt the hurler could still stick in the starting rotation with the three pitches he currently utilizes but that improved command and control are both needed.

Webster spent the 2012 season – split between two organizations – at the double-A level and should be ready for an assignment to triple-A. He’s probably three to six months of seasoning away from contributing at the big league level. The North Carolina native has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter; if his command and control do not improve enough, though, he could perhaps develop into a dominating high-leverage reliever.

Additional Notes

On two separate occasions, Webster was as good as any pitching prospect I’ve seen for four innings. Then, the wheels fell off as the tired and quickly lost velocity. At his best, Webster’s fastball was 94-96 MPH, touching 98. He also throws a slider, curveball and changeup which vary in effectiveness depending on the outing. If the Red Sox can help Webster fill out his frame, they have a mid-rotation starter. If not, then the potential is there for him to become a shut down reliever. (Mike Newman)

#5 Garin Cecchini (3B)

Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 draft (4th round)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

On the surface, Cecchini is a very interesting prospect. He’s a solid hitter with a good idea of the strike zone and decent pitch recognition. He also possesses good bat speed and will take a walk. Unfortunately, he doesn’t possess the power teams look for from a third baseman (.127 isolate slugging rate in 2012) and the Red Sox organization has a plethora of hot corner options, including big league incumbent Will Middlebrooks and current shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts.

Cecchini stole more than 50 bases in 2012 but he has modest speed and excels due to strong base running instincts. A contact I spoke with said Cecchini is one of the best base runners in the system and is also one of the most advanced hitters. He said the prospect could eventually develop average or better power. “His [current] approach is up the middle and the other way… As he moves up… we’ll see those [power numbers] improve.”

When asked about his defense, the talent evaluator I spoke with said Cecchini needs to improve at third base but he has the arm strength for the position. The contact said he needs to work on his agility and his range going side to side “but he’s definitely shown the ability to stay there.”

When I watched Cecchini play I was quite taken with his abilities at third base. He made a couple of nice running plays – one coming in and one going to his right -on tough ground balls. At the plate, I noticed that he had a wide, well-balanced base with slightly bent knees. He wasn’t afraid to go the other way and took the pitch where it was thrown, not trying to do too much. His swing mechanics were a little inconsistent with a longer swing during his first at-bat before becoming much quicker to the ball as the game progressed. He didn’t always swing atthe best pitches.

Cecchini will open 2013 in high-A ball and should be ready for the majors around late 2014 or 2015. Left-handed hitters with the ability to hit for a high average are often in demand, whether as a big league regular or part-time contributor. The development of his power tool will be key in determining his future role.

Additional Notes

Cecchini is a bit of a tweener whose statistical line was more impressive than his tools on the field. His 50+ steals are simply not sustainable at the higher levels and I question whether he has more than 10-12 home runs in his bat. However, .285/.350/.425 with average defense is still a three win player at the Major League level. (Mike Newman)

#6 Henry Owens (P)

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2011 draft (36th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

The 36th overall selection during the 2011 amateur draft, Owens did not officially pick up a baseball until 2012 when the organization gave the 19-year-old hurler an aggressive assignment to full-season A-ball. The southpaw responded with a solid season that included 130 strikeouts in 101.2 innings of work.

Owens, now 20, showed signs of tiring late in the year and elevated the ball a lot in August, resulting in very high fly-ball rates — although the 6’6” lefty was always more of a fly-ball pitcher. He needs to learn to leverage his height and get a better downward angle on his pitches to induce more ground-ball outs.

I watched Owens pitch in late August and he had a tendency to fall forward early in his delivery, dragging his arm behind him. He has a cross-fire motion with a low 3/4 arm slot, both of which help add deception to his delivery. I was a little surprised with the lack of life on his fastball. Owens threw heaters almost exclusively until the second inning when the opponents jumped all over him.

He got much better when he started mixing in all three of his pitches. He showed a good, but inconsistent, curveball, and a potentially-plus changeup that he used to strike out some hitters. The fastball command, which was also inconsistent – especially on the arm side – is key for helping him set up the change of pace.

A contact I spoke with said Owens has a chance to be a top-to-mid-rotation starter with further development. “He has a three-pitch mix with a deceptive fastball – up to 94 mph this year – a plus changeup, and a future above-average curveball… He needs to get stronger and that will help him maintain his delivery, command and quality. He is left handed with a very advanced feel for pitching, changing speeds and attacking hitters.”

Additional Notes

Having seen Owens’ final start of the 2012 season, it’s safe to say he was not at his best. The left-hander I did see was 91-93 MPH, touching 94 with an upper-60s curveball and changeup. While I was impressed with his fastball movement and late breaking curveball, it’s impossible to not wonder if such a slow off-speed pitch is a legitimate offering or trickery. (Mike Newman)

#7 Blake Swihart (C/DH)

Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2011 draft (26th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

Switch-hitting catchers with above-average offensive abilities are rare, which helped make Swihart desirable as the 26th overall selection of the 2011 draft out of a New Mexico high school. A $2.5 million contract prevented the athletic backstop from following through on his commitment to the University of Texas.

Swihart’s calling card probably will always be his offense. A contact said, “He is athletic with fast hands and good hand-eye. He’s better when he tries to work through the middle of the field with line drives… He has more line-drive than loft in his swing but some of those line drives will carry the wall.” A future projection of 10-12 home runs and 30-plus doubles was given.

Like all young hitting prospects, Swihart still has work to do at the plate. “He needs to work on his pitch selectivity and let the ball travel more,” the talent evaluator said. “His swing consistency from both sides is a work-in-progress. He believes he can hit anything so he will predetermine swings on occasion which gets him in trouble.” When I personallywatched him play, I felt Swihart could be shorter to the ball and his swing got loopy at times.

Despite his abilities at the plate, there are still some who believe Swihart has a lot of work to do before he proves capable of playing behind the plate at the big league level. The Red Sox organization, though, believes he has a good shot at sticking as a catcher. The contact told me, “He has improved on the basic fundamentals – receiving, blocking, footwork… He takes to instruction well though and is a quick learner. Pitchers like throwing to him.” The same contact also said Swihart as a “plus arm” but tries to be too quick at times when throwing. He said the prospect’s pop times (throwing to second base) are typically in the 1.80 to 1.95 second range.

Despite producing slightly below average offensive numbers in A-ball in 2012 Swihart should move up to high-A ball and, with some adjustments, could taste double-A by the end of the year.

Additional Notes

Swihart presented as a solid, all-around catching prospect. And while he presented with no real weakness, nothing about his tools screamed former first round pick either. As an older 2011 draft pick, Swihart was age appropriate for the South Atlantic League leaving his offensive numbers a bit concerning. For a prospect considered to be an offense first catcher, he’ll certainly need to hit more to maintain his lofty prospect status. (Mike Newman)

#8 Jose Iglesias (SS)

Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: AAA/MLB
Acquired: 2009 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

Iglesias has been touted as the Red Sox’s shortstop of the future since signing out of Cuba in 2009. Despite being young and undeveloped with the bat, his glove work pushed him through the system quickly and he reached triple-A – with a cup of coffee in the majors – in just his second pro season.

Iglesias will probably never be an impact hitter (my favorite comp for him is Cesar Izturis) but a talent evaluator I spoke with said he really improved his offensive approach in 2012 despite being challenged at such a high level of pro ball. The contact said the young shortstop is currently learning to handle a variety of pitches, rather than focusing solely on fastballs. The club would like to see Iglesias stick to a game plan at the plate and get on base at a higher clip. He has good speed and could swipe double digit bag totals at the big league level.

Although there are concerns about his offense, there are few – if any – questions about his ability to field his position. The middle infielder has outstanding hands, foot work, range and a strong arm. Iglesias’ defensive wizardry will likely make him a big league regular even if his offense stagnates at its current level. As the talent evaluator put it, “His defense is at an elite level… It’s something every club would want.” The Cuban should open 2013 as the club’s starter at shortstop.

#9 Deven Marrero (SS/DH)

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A-
Acquired: 2012 draft (24th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

Marrero entered his junior year of college the same way he entered his senior year of high school – as a potential first round pick. However, for the second time in his amateur career, various unanswered questions caused him to slide a little bit in the draft – but not to the extent that his signability murkiness caused him to slip in 2009 (to the 17th round). The Red Sox were able to get the sure-handed shortstop with the 24th overall selection.

Some teams were concerned with Marrero’s offensive struggles in 2011-12, while others questioned his drive. Boston was just thrilled to get a player that the organization had coveted since his prep days, according to a contact I spoke with. “I don’t really think he struggled with the bat as much as I do that he struggled to live up to the expectations of being the first college position player taken,” the contact said. “Look at the difference in performance – in 2012, he struck out less and hit for more power. He put some unneeded pressure on himself and it caused him to have an erratic junior year.”

Those who love Marrero as a top prospect point to strong athleticism and steady defense. He possesses a strong arm and good range. At the plate, Marrero is streaky and inconsistent but he shows gap power and the ability to produce a solid batting average. He appeared more motivated in pro ball and flashed some potential on the base paths with 24 steals (six caught stealing) in 64 games; he’s not a burner but he has above-average speed. Marrero also did a nice job of working the count and taking some free passes while limiting his strikeouts. He could end up being a solid No. 2 hitter in the lineup.

The talent evaluator I spoke with agreed that Marrero still had polishing to do on his game: “He needs to continue to work on all aspects of the game – he has unbelievable instincts but will try and do too much on both sides of the ball.” The young shortstop will likely open 2013 in high-A ball and a strong first half could push him to double-A. He’s currently stuck behind fellow shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias but, if he develops as the Red Sox hope and Xander Bogaerts is shifted to another position, Marrero’s well-rounded game could make him the shortstop of the future in Boston.

Additional Notes

I’m not sure how Marrero’s agent netted him a two million dollar signing bonus, but I want that guy negotiating my next salary! The Arizona State product is a solid all-around shortstop, but profiles as more of a solid regular than player who excels in any area. Of course that has considerable value in today’s game, but his bonus seems a bit steep considering the Mets first round pick, also a shortstop, received about $800,000 less. (Mike Newman)

#10 Brandon Workman (P)

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2010 draft (2nd round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Workman is another Red Sox college draft pick who has been a top prospect since his high schools days, having spurned the Philadelphia Phillies back in 2007 (as a third round selection) to play ball at the University of Texas. Finally signed in the second round of the 2010 amateur draft, the right-hander reached double-A in just his second full season in pro ball. He’s produced very consistent numbers as a professional.

A scout familiar with Workman during both his high school and college days said that the pitcher has come a long way in his development. “As a high schooler, Brandon had a plus fastball and curveball but lacked a real off-speed pitch and his command was not very sharp. He developed his cutter at the University of Texas with the help of pitching coach Skip Johnson and it became a real weapon for him as he continued to improve his ability to locate. By the time (he was drafted) he had plus control.”

When I watched Workman pitch, he showed a good pitcher’s frame with a three-quarter arm slot. He threw a heavy fastball but was not doing a good job of mixing in his secondary pitches. However, the scout I spoke with believes that both Workman’s fastball and curveball are plus pitches. “I think he’ll be a starter based on his mix, great strength, durability and his control. Now he’s developed the changeup and he has a starter’s mix to go along with it. There is effort in delivery and arm action but he has no problems repeating (it). He’s so big and strong that he can handle it.”

For me, Workman appears to be a future No. 3 or 4 starter who should be capable of providing lots of innings at the big league. He will likely open 2013 back at double-A but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him up with the big league club at some point if the pitching staff struggles with injuries.

Additional Notes

After posting solid peripherals between High-A and Double-A in 2012, I can’t help but think Workman’s rank is more due to statistical success than pure stuff. The best Brandon Workman I’ve seen has a heavy, 92-94 MPH sinking fastball and curveball he can throw for strikes. At his worst, Workman strikes me as a seventh inning bullpen arm. (Mike Newman)

#11 Drake Britton (P)

Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2007 draft (23rd round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Britton has had an up-and-down career since signing out of a Texas high school back in 2007, which also included Tommy John surgery in 2008. He entered the 2011 season as one of Boston’s most promising pitching prospects but had a complete meltdown in high-A ball. He rebounded in 2012 – despite a slow start – and made 16 encouraging starts in double-A.

A scout I spoke with said the Tommy John surgery that Britton had definitely slowed his progress. “I believe that the further away he gets from the surgery, the better he becomes… Consistency with his stuff in the zone is the main thing he has to improve to become a successful major leaguer. The stuff is there and it’s all plus… This type of left-handed arm just doesn’t fall off many trees.” Britton’s repertoire includes a low-to-mid-90s fastball, curveball and changeup. I watched the southpaw pitch and he had a thicker lower half that hinted at strong legs – a necessity for any pitcher – but he didn’t have the smoothest delivery. He also struggled to keep his shoulder closed from the stretch.

Because of his past struggles, the organization may choose to be cautious with Britton and send him back to double-A to begin 2013 but a strong spring training could vault him to triple-A. He has the ceiling of a No. 3 or 4 starter but could also end up in the bullpen if consistency continues to elude him.

#12 Bryce Brentz (OF)

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AA/AAA
Acquired: 2010 draft (36th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA

He hasn’t shown it in his professional numbers to date – in terms of massive home run numbers – but Brentz possesses impressive raw power and could be Boston’s right-fielder of the (near) future. A scout I spoke with said, “Bryce has an extremely fast barrel and is capable of getting to his power anywhere in the zone.” Like most power hitters, though, the former supplemental first round pick strikes out a lot but his aggressive nature also leads to modest walk rates. The scout I spoke with said Brentz was always a competitive player. “This is an area where his competitiveness maybe working against him. He – like a lot of young players – has to learn to control his effort level and that it is OK to take a walk sometimes.”

Brentz is a decent hitter who is not a dead pull hitter but he still struggles with breaking balls. His batting averages in the minors have been buoyed by high – and likely unsustainable – BABIP rates; when he reaches the majors expect his average to be more in the .250-.270 range.

He’s not a great runner and his speed is slightly below average so his range in the outfield will be a tick below average. His plus arm strength makes up for any inadequacies in the field. As one scout put it, “He was able to throw 94 off the mound (as an amateur). Whenever he threw from the outfield it was a very playable arm, capable of fitting a right-field profile. (The) strongest amateur arm I ever saw was Jeff Franceour but Bryce was second.”

A former two-way player in college, Brentz was a little behind the eight ball when he entered pro ball but has now had to opportunity to focus on full-time hitting for the past three seasons. He’ll likely open 2013 at triple-A Pawtucket but could reach the majors at some point during the second half of the season.

Additional Notes

When Bryce Brentz posts a BABIP of .370+, prospect followers get excited and forget he strikes out more than 25% of the time. Having seen Brentz in 2011, I saw him as more of a second division starter who may struggle to break through in Boston where success is expected immediately. I’m a bit more confident in his abilities now that his numbers have maintained at the upper levels. (Mike Newman)

#13 Brandon Jacobs (OF)

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A+
Acquired: 2009 draft (10th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA

Jacobs appeared at No. 10 on my Red Sox Top 15 prospect list last year but a disappointing season in high-A ball dragged him down to the No. 13 slot this year. Despite his obvious struggles and step backward in 2012 he still managed to provide league-average offense. A contact I spoke with felt the prospect’s season was not that bad. “He was coming off a good year (in 2011)… He was in a less friendly hitting environment… and he maybe tried to do too much,” he said. “It was a learning experience for him… Has some work to do on his mechanics.”

I watched Jacobs play earlier this year and noted that he holds his hands very high and has a noisy load. He looked like he was swinging around the ball instead of keeping his hands inside the ball with a short swing path. When he’s going well, the former prep star shows impressive raw power and base running aptitude. His strikeout rates will probably always keep him from hitting for a high average but he could be a 20-15 (home runs-steals) player at the big league level, although he’s not a pure base stealer by any means. Jacobs has played both left and center field in pro ball but the talent evaluator I spoke with felt his best position would probably be left field because of his modest arm strength and solid range.

He should move up to double-A in 2013 at the age of 22. If he can continue to tighten up his pitch recognition and approach at the plate, Jacobs could be a solid big league contributor as early as mid-2014.

Additional Notes

Entering 2012, Jacobs was ranked in every major top-100 and deservedly so. With reports of a hamate injury slowing him down for much of the season, he might deserve a mulligan. However, prospect lists simply don’t work that way, so Jacobs takes a big hit. A rebound in 2013 has him back in the top five. Being that Jacobs made such huge strides in 2011, I wouldn’t bet against him. (Mike Newman)

#14 Anthony Ranaudo (P)

Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2010 draft (39th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Not only is Ranaudo one of the most enigmatic prospects in the Red Sox system, he might be one of the biggest head-scratchers in professional baseball. He looked like a sure-fire first round draft pick after his sophomore season of college before suffering a stress fracture in his elbow. Boston still took him with the 39th selection of the 2010 draft and handed him more than $2.5 million based on past performances and scouting reports.

A contact I spoke with said,”We had a good process on Anthony’s medical history and we knew there was risk involved in regards to his elbow, but were confident with a conservative approach to his developmental path he would get healthy and on track… The elbow has been sound but the pulled groin coming out of spring training really set him back.” Ranaudo made only six starts in 2012, all at the double-A level. The good news, though, is that he’s pitching in the Puerto Rico winter league and reportedly flashed very good stuff in his debut.

Ranaudo is a monster of a man, standing 6’7” and weighing about 230 lbs so he should be able to provide a good number of innings if his elbow and shoulder hold up. If not, though, perhaps a future as a high leverage reliever. Both his fastball and curveball have the chance to be plus pitches while a scout I spoke with suggested a future grade of 55 (slightly above average) on his changeup.

People familiar with Ranaudo believe he’ll overcome all the adversity he’s faced to this point in his pitching career. The contact I spoke with said, “If you talk with anyone with the Red Sox Anthony is one of those unique young men who has plus-plus make-up. He has faced a lot of adversity thus far but it hasn’t changed his approach or commitment level. Hopefully he will have a great off season and be heathy coming into 2013.” If he can stay on the mound and continue to show the stuff he’s flashed this winter, Ranaudo could reach triple-A in 2013 and possibly the majors in 2014.

Additional Notes

In 2011, contacts kept telling me the same thing in regards to Ranaudo. He profiles as a durable, mid-rotation starter, but why the two-plus million dollar signing bonus? After a 2012 which saw Ranaudo post a 6.45 BB/9 in Double-A, those contacts were proven correct for the moment. (Mike Newman)

#15 Mookie Betts (2B)

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A-
Acquired: 2011 draft (5th round)
Projected 2013 Level: A

The 15th slot on the list came down to a few names and I eventually settled on Betts, who narrowly edged out 2012 draftee and right-handed prep hurler Ty Buttrey. The diminutive second baseman spend 2012 playing at the age of 19 against much older competition in the New York Penn League. He understands his game, and his limitations, and focuses on controlling the strike zone, getting on base and using his legs. He’s working to become a steady defender at second base.

In 2012, Betts walked more than he struck out – and impressive feat for his age and experience level – and also stole 20 bases in 24 attempts. A talent evaluator I spoke with assessed the prospect: “He has a very advanced feel for the zone and always seems to be in control of his at-bats. He has good speed, instincts, and athleticism.” At 5’9” with a slender frame, he needs to get stronger so he’s not over-matched at higher levels. His month-by-month splits suggest that he wore down as the season progressed despite playing in short-season ball.

The contact I spoke with about Betts agreed that the prospect has work to do. “As with all high school players, he needs to get stronger and continue to get at-bats… He just needs to keep playing baseball and developing in the field and at the plate.” The Tennessee native should move up to full season A-ball in 2013 for the first time in his career and should move fairly methodically through the system.

His overally package of tools is probably not a threat to incumbent second baseman Dustin Pedroia and the infield glut of prospects – which is a great ‘problem’ for Boston to have – could push the youngster to a utlity role if he can diversify his defensive abilities and isn’t used as future trade bait.

Additional Notes

Betts is an athletic second baseman with gap power and strong contact skills. Unfortunately, his arm will keep him out of the shortstop picture which hurts his value. I like Betts as a sleeper, but would probably have Vinicio ranked here instead. He’s younger, just as athletic and profiles as a true shortstop. (Mike Newman)

I can honestly say that I fell in love with this system while researching it for the Top 15 list. It is one of the most underrated systems in the game and I am a huge fan of the organization’s 2012 amateur draft. The club has a collection of high ceiling arms and bats as well as some potentially useful high floor players.

#1 Oscar Taveras (OF)

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2008 international FA
Projected 2013 level: AAA/MLB

I first stumbled upon Taveras in late 2010 shortly before he became a Top 100 prospect contender for prospect analysts everywhere, and have yet to lose my enthusiasm for his future to this day. He’s been criticized in the past for having a unique approach and non-traditional hitting mechanics but he continues to defy odds because they work for him.

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I felt pretty comfortable ranking the first five prospects in the system and then things started to get murky. There were definitely some intriguing players that got cut from the list – such as Tony Zych, Juan Paniagua, Gioskar Amaya, and Robert Whitenack. I also stumbled across a few sleepers to keep an eye on, such as catcher Justin Marra.

#1 Javier Baez (SS)

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A/A+
Acquired: 2011 draft (9th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

Baez was a consensus first round draft pick in 2011 – and went 9th to the Cubs – but there were questions surrounding his defensive abilities and maturity. A scout I spoke with recently, though, never doubted Baez’ abilities in the field, stating that the shortstop possesses good hands, a strong arm and great instincts.

He also down played concerns over his make-up, saying that Baez works hard, is a fierce competitor and is confident. I ranked him cautiously on the pre-2012 Top 100 prospect list at 52nd overall and he made huge strides during the season. Baez, 19, was slowed early in the year by injury but then hit for average, power and stole 20 bases in 23 tries in the Midwest League (A-ball). The Puerto Rico native received a late-season promotion to the Florida State League and appeared in 23 games.

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The Toronto Blue Jays organization boasts some impressive depth that stretches well beyond the 15 best prospects listed below. There were at least another 10-12 prospects legitimately in the running for the 10-15 spots on this list.

#1 Travis D’Arnaud (C)

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA
Acquired: Trade (2009)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The young catcher entered 2012 as the Jays’ top prospect and he did nothing to change the lofty status, although a knee injury ended his season prematurely in June. Had he not been injured d’Arnaud likely would have made his big league debut when MLB incumbent J.P. Arencibia suffered a fracture in his hand. d’Arnaud has the potential to be both an above-average hitter and fielder. One talent evaluator said the prospect was likely ready for the big leagues but stressed his value was behind plate and that it wasn’t overly likely that he would see time at other positions in an effort to get his bat into the lineup.

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All 30 Top 15 prospects lists are done and I’m wrapping up my off-season prospect coverage with the Top 100 Prospects for 2012, as well as a chat. I’ll let the list speak for itself. I’ll be back at noon eastern to discuss anything and everything prospect related.

Be sure to keep visiting FanGraphs as we approach Opening Day 2012… We’re going to be launching an exciting new prospect feature for 2012 that I think you’re really going to enjoy.

100. Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston
99. Dillon Howard, RHP, Cleveland
98. Mason Williams, OF, New York AL
97. Alex Meyer, RHP, Washington
96. Sonny Gray, RHP, Oakland
95. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland
94. Christian Bethancourt, C, Atlanta
93. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta
92. Tyler Pastornicky, SS, Atlanta
91. Jean Segura, 2B/SS, Los Angeles AL
90. Matt Davidson, 3B/1B, Arizona
89. Jesse Biddle, LHP, Philadelphia
88. Wily Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee
87. Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago NL
86. Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Atlanta
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The Houston Astros minor league system was abysmal for years but there is finally a faint light at the end of the very long tunnel… and it’s actually not a train. It’s the hope that comes with a new vision from a new front office filled with intelligent, forward-thinking individuals who realize the organization needs to build from within to survive – especially with the impending move to the American League West division, which is on tap for the 2013 season. To be fair, former GM Ed Wade and his staff were starting to right the ship with some smart decisions in 2011, which included the Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence trades, as well as some improved amateur draft choices. New GM Jeff Luhnow, formerly of the St. Louis Cardinals, comes with a strong reputation for developing and acquiring prospects. He appears to be the right man for this difficult – but exciting – task of rebuilding the franchise.

1. Jonathan Singleton, OF/1B
BORN: Sept. 18, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 8th round, California HS (by Philadelphia)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd (Philadelphia)

Although he already has three seasons already under his belt Singelton did not turn 20 years old until after the regular season concluded in 2011. The former Phillies prospect is definitely the type of player that the new front office in Houston can eventually build around. He should hit for average and power at the big league level. He shows both power and good pitch recognition but he’s too passive at times and allows too many drivable pitches to go by. It’s also one of the reasons that his strikeout rate jumped from 16.5% in 2010 to 24% in 2011. Singleton has yet to display above-average power numbers, having failed to surpass the .200 mark in isolated slugging, but he should eventually hit 20+ home runs at the big league level. Defensively, the prospect has played both first base and left field, as he was blocked in Philly by Ryan Howard. His defense in left field is average-at-best due to below-average range. Luckily, there should be no roadblocks at first base in Houston. Singleton will move up to double-A to begin 2012 and could see time at the big league level by the end of the season.

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The depth within the minor league system is still not where it needs to be for the organization to be considered among the best in baseball. However the club has infused some exciting talent into the mix in recent years. The Cardinals minor league system is definitely one to watch in the years ahead as it boasts some high-ceiling talent and a plethora of hard-throwing relief arms.

1. Shelby Miller, RHP
BORN: Oct. 19, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

One of the top arms available in the 2009 draft, the hard-throwing Texan can fire his heat up into the mid-to-high 90s and it has excellent movement. Miller’s fastball is so effective that he has to be encouraged to use his secondary pitches, both of which show flashes of brilliance: a curveball and changeup. Although they have potential, Miller needs to command them better. His plus velocity allows him to safely work in the upper half of the strike zone but it would be nice to see the fly-ball pitcher generate a few more ground-ball outs. After splitting 2011 between high-A and double-A, the right-hander should move up to triple-A where he’ll face a stiff challenge by facing an increased number of strong fastball hitters. Miller has the ceiling of a No. 1 starter and he could be pitching in St. Louis by the end of the ’12 season.

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