Archive for Trade Value

2009 MLB Trade Value: #10-#6

#10: Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia: 4.8 WAR

He’s not cheap anymore, and at 30, he’s headed towards the down side of his career, but he’s also on pace for his third consecutive 8+ win season. He is the guy who makes Philly a contender. Just a tremendous all around player that excels at every part of the game, his 2005-2009 peak is going to go down as one of the best in baseball history for a second baseman. $60 million over the next four years isn’t bargain basement money, but he’s worth twice that.

#9: Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco: 5.3 WAR

501 career innings, 2.76 career FIP. He’s on his way to a second straight Cy Young award and should destroy the previous record for first year arbitration eligible pitcher salary if the Giants can’t lock him up long term this winter, even as a super-two. He’s improved his previously poor command to the point that it’s hardly an issue anymore, and his strikeout rate has actually risen from his rookie season despite a two mph drop in fastball velocity. The inherent risk with all pitchers keeps him below the eight premium bats ahead of him, but he’d command more in trade than any pitcher on earth.

#8: Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee: 3.0 WAR

You don’t find many 25-year-olds with 1,500 career plate appearances and a .400 career wOBA. Braun is a classic middle of the order monster at the plate with easy power to spare. He’s making strides in improving his pitch recognition and should match last year’s walk total in the next couple of weeks. After showing he didn’t belong at third base, he’s become a decent enough defender in left. Oh, and he won’t make an eight figure salary until 2014.

#7: David Wright, 3B, New York: 2.5 WAR

The simultaneous drop in power and rise in strikeout rate are a bit disconcerting, but Wright is still a guy who averaged +7.9 WAR per year the last two years at age 24 and 25 and is signed for half of his market value through 2013. Without the weird performance this year, he might have cracked the top five. While I wouldn’t get too worked about about three months of baseball, he’s going to have to start hitting like the Wright of old again sometime soon.

#6: Brian McCann, C, Atlanta: 2.4 WAR

Guys who can make contact and hit for power are usually incredible offensive machines McCann has a career .201 ISO and 13.5% K%. Plus, he’s a 25-year-old catcher. Did I mention that he’s signed through 2013 for a grand total of $32 million? Atlanta, please put some talent around on this guy so we can all watch him play in October.


2009 MLB Trade Value: #15-#11

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#15: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado: 1.8 WAR

It’s been an up and down couple of years for the Rockies shortstop, but the future is bright indeed. He’s added walks and more power this year, rounding out his offensive game and giving him the tools to be a significant offensive threat. And he’s still an above average defensive shortstop, just 24 years of age, and signed to a contract that is so team friendly he should probably fire his agent.

#14: Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles: 4.1 WAR

The prototypical five tool player, Kemp has increased his walk rate each of the last two years without harming his core skills, making him a well rounded offensive threat. He’s also among the league leaders in UZR in center field this year, showing above average range and a cannon arm. He won’t turn 25 until September, and he’s just entering his arbitrtation years. Yeah, this is one valuable player.

#13: Dan Haren, RHP, Arizona: 4.3 WAR

Defying normal trends, his strikeout has risen every year since he reached the majors. He’s gone from a strike-throwing mid-rotation guy to a legitimate ace, and the contract extension he signed with Arizona will keep him drastically underpaid for at least the next three years.

#12: Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland: 0.8 WAR

He’s kind of the posterboy for the new school kind of player. He walks, hits for power, plays quality defense at a premium position, and uses his speed to steal bases at a high rate of success. The low batting average, mostly due to high strikeout totals, doesn’t limit his perceived value as much as it would have 30 years ago. He’s also locked up through 2012 at rates low enough to be considered thievery.

#11: Zack Greinke, RHP, Kansas City: 5.8 WAR

Dayton Moore has made a lot of mistakes, but signing Greinke to an extension before the season started probably saved his franchise $50+ million. He’s having a silly season at age 25, and is the runaway leader for the Cy Young award. He won’t be cashing in on his success until after the 2012 season, however, when his newly minted contract finally expires. Whoops.


2009 MLB Trade Value: #20-#16

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#20: Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets: 0.7 WAR

On the field, Reyes is a superstar. He ran off three straight 5+ win performances in his age 23-25 seasons, which is a pretty incredible stretch of play. As a switch-hitting five tool player headed into his prime, he’s the kind of guy you can build a franchise around. Unfortunately for the Mets, they only have him locked up through 2011, so while he’s a bargain for the next two years, he’s going to get free market salaries starting in 2012.

#19: Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore: 1.5 WAR

While Jones is just a good player right now, he’s still scratching the surface of what he can be. Still just 23 years of age, he has the kind of athletic ability and swing to add significant power as he fills out, giving him a chance to be the rare middle of the order center fielder. Plus, he won’t even be arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season. All-Stars who make the league minimum before they turn 24 are remarkably valuable.

#18: Colby Rasmus, CF, St. Louis: 3.0 WAR

Everything I just said about Jones, except he’s also left-handed and a year younger. Rasmus isn’t quite as good of an athlete, but he’s a comparable hitter and could be better defensively. It will be interesting to watch these two develop, as Rasmus is more polished and might already be a little closer to his ceiling. They’re both franchise cornerstones, though. Blue Jay fans, forget it – you’re not getting this kid for Halladay.

#17: Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle: 3.8 WAR

King Felix has taken his throne this year, swatting away critics who claim he’s been overhyped since arriving back in 2005. The ability to command his fastball consistently has allowed him to develop into a true frontline starter, and with four plus pitches, he’s capable of blowing hitters every time out. However, like with Reyes, he’s only under club control through 2011, and his strong performance this season will get him a big payday in arbitration this winter. He’s great, and still just 23, but this is the last year he’s going to be cheap.

#16: Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota: 4.1 WAR

He’s just one of two guys in their 20s in baseball that you can look at and say with confidence that he’s an easy Hall Of Famer as long as he stays healthy. He’s putting up one of the great catcher seasons of all time, and at 26, he’s just entering his prime. However, he’s a free agent at the end of the 2010 season. Anyone trading for him would only be getting a year and a half worth of value before they had to outbid New York and Boston for his services, and just thinking of what kind of contract he might get as a free agent makes one shudder. So, while he’s the odds on favorite for AL MVP, I can’t put him any higher than this.


2009 MLB Trade Value: #25-#21

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#25: David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay: 0.2 WAR

The adjustment from bullpen playoff hero to front of the rotation starter has been rougher than planned, as Price’s command has been miserable this season, but he’s still showed ace-in-the-making stuff. Once he gets a little more confidence in his change-up, watch out. The major league contract he signed as the top pick in the draft makes him more expensive than most pitchers with his service time level, but he’s still a remarkably big bargain, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2015.

#24: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington: 0.0 WAR

I debated leaving him off the list since he hasn’t signed yet, but in reality, his situation isn’t that much different than an arbitration eligible player. He only has one team he can sign with, but enough value to command a pretty hefty contract. I’m anticipating that he’ll sign a major league deal worth around $25 million over six years, and even with his unproven nature, that kind of price tag for an arm like Strasburg’s is something every team in the league would covet.

#23: Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit: 4.3 WAR

Verlander has made The Leap this year and is now one of the game’s most dominating power arms. He’s going to pass his strikeout total from last season before the end of July, as he’s dialed his fastball back up to 95 and is just throwing it past people. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they didn’t get him locked up long term before the breakout, so now they’re going to have pay through the nose for his final two arbitration years.

#22: Curtis Granderson, CF, Detroit: 2.2 WAR

Chronically underrated, Granderson is a true star, offering power, speed, patience, and premium defensive value in one package. He’s one of the best all around players in the game, in his prime, and under contract for $24 million through 2012 with a club option for 2013 that will probably be picked up. If he hit for a higher batting average, he’d get more notice, but he doesn’t need to in order to be a star. He’s already one.

#21: B.J. Upton, CF, Tampa Bay: 1.8 WAR

Pretty soon, we might just have to label Upton a tease. He has all the skills, and after a dominating October, he looked poised for a huge year. Instead, he’s regressed a bit, and at 25-years-old, we’re still waiting for him to put it all together. Even with the .239 batting average, he does enough other things (especially on defense) to be valuable, but he could be so much more than the +4 win player that he is now. With arbitration coming this winter, and the Rays depth of outfield talent, it will be interesting to see how patient Tampa is with him.


2009 MLB Trade Value: #30-#26

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#30: Josh Johnson, RHP, Florida: 3.4 WAR

This is what Ubaldo Jimenez would be with better command. The strikeouts and groundballs skillset is an ace package, and Johnson throws strikes too. His present value is extremely high, though health concerns and the fact that he’s a free agent after 2011 make this the highest he’ll ever rank. Still, a 25-year-old ace making $1.4 million this year? Teams would be killing themselves for a shot at the guy if Florida made him available.

#29: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles: 1.9 WAR

Kershaw’s stuff is so good that even with well below average command at age 21, he’s still a good major league pitcher. He’s certainly still a work in progress, but there’s enough present value, combined with his enormous potential, to place him here during his pre-arb years.

#28: Chad Billingsley, RHP, Los Angeles: 2.4 WAR

Here, we start to get into the list of guys who just aren’t going to get traded. The Dodgers aren’t giving up their ace – he’s 24, he’s a frontline starter who they have under club control through 2012, and even with his arbitration reward coming, he’ll be vastly underpaid the next few years. Like Kershaw, he could stand to throw a few more strikes, but that’s just nit-picking.

#27: James Shields, RHP, Tampa Bay: 2.8 WAR

He might not have dominating ace-like upside, but his present value is remarkable – a durable, strike throwing machine who misses bats with a devastating change-up. His contract is unbelievably team friendly, as he’s owed just $7 million combined the next two years, then three low cost team options kick in, reducing the risk while also keeping him in Tampa Bay long term.

#26: Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati: 1.0 WAR

Don’t overreact to the .202 BABIP that has sunk his performance this year – he’s a 22-year-old monster power bat with defensive value as an outfielder. There’s legitimately best-player-in-baseball upside here if Bruce reaches his full potential, and he’s already a solid player. The Reds have a cornerstone foundation piece, as long as they don’t break him while trying to improve his batting average.


2009 MLB Trade Value: #35-#31

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#35: Nick Markakis, RF, Baltimore: 0.5 WAR

After a monster 2008, his follow-up season hasn’t gone as well – his walks and power are down, and UZR no longer loves his defense in right field. The talent is still there, though, and as a 25-year-old with across the board skills, he’ll have more seasons like his 2008 in the future. The contract extension he signed will keep him in Baltimore through at least 2014, and while he’s no longer cheap, the salaries are discounted enough to still make him a big time asset.

#34: Jon Lester, LHP, Boston: 3.4 WAR

The massive jump in strikeout rate (6.5 in 2008, 10.3 in 2009) is nearly unprecedented, and K/9 stabilizes very quickly. His velocity is up a couple of ticks, and it’s made the most impact on his curve, which is now a nasty out pitch. A 25-year-old lefty with this kind of dominance unbelievably hard to find. His contract is definitely team friendly ($30 million through 2013 or $43 million through 2014), but not the bargain basement rate that others are pitching on. If he keeps pitching like this, though, this will still look like its 20 spots too low.

#33: Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Colorado: 3.3 WAR

This is what it looks like when a 25-year-old with the biggest fastball in the game posts a 3.23 FIP while pitching half of his games at Coors Field. Jimenez has the makings of a Brandon Webb-style groundballs and strikeouts ace, with stuff that few can match and improving command as well. He’s also due just $22 million through 2014, and the last $14 million of that is tied to club options for the final two seasons. He’s not a household name yet, but he will be if he can stay healthy.

#32: Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas: 2.8 WAR

His walks and power are up, and he’s worked hard to improve his defense at the keystone, showing that he’s not done improving despite an already strong body of work. He’s a legit 30-30 player headed into his prime and is locked up through 2013 at bargain basement rates. If he can continue to show that he’s an asset in the field at second base, than this is about 20 spots too low. Questions about whether his defensive improvement are sustainable or not hold him back for now.

#31: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston: 2.6 WAR

The reigning AL MVP is unlikely to ever have another power spike like he did in his 2008 campaign, but he doesn’t have to if he keeps hitting .300, racking up the doubles while making obscene amounts of contact, and playing quality defense at second base. The contract extension he signed that pays him just $40 million through 2014 increases his value as well.


2009 MLB Trade Value: #40-#36

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#40: Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta: 0.1 WAR

Despite a mediocre start to his major league career, Hanson is one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball. He put up video game like numbers in the minors and was the most impressive pitcher in the history of the Arizona Fall League last year. His four pitch mix contains two knockout breaking balls and an above average fastball. His lower present value and high risks push him down here, but he could easily be top 20 a year from now, especially considering he’s basically free for the next 3 years.

#39: Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta: 0.0 WAR

Recently promoted to Double-A at the age of 19, this is how Heyward has handled his first 32 plate appearances above Double-A: four singles, three doubles, two triples, four walks, no strikeouts. That’s how you announce that the best prospect in baseball has arrived on the scene. A big left-handed premium bat with power and plate discipline, Heyward profiles as an elite hitter with some defensive value. He could be in Atlanta next year, taking the mantle from Chipper Jones as the next great Braves hitter.

#38: Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston: 0.0 WAR

In any other organization in baseball, Buchholz would be a regular member of the rotation. He’s mastered the minor leagues and even pitched fairly well in the majors, posting a career 4.34 FIP over 98 innings in 2007 and 2008. He’s got top notch stuff and improving command, which is why every GM in the world asks for him when they call Boston, but the Red Sox realize how valuable of an asset he is, which is why he’s still in their organization. Wherever he ends up, he’ll instantly become the future of the team’s rotation.

#37: Roy Halladay, RHP, Toronto: 4.2 WAR

Perhaps the most interesting guy on the list, because he’s actually in play. He’s the best pitcher in baseball, but he’s only signed through 2010, and his salary is prohibitive for some teams. The Blue Jays have made it clear that they’ll only trade him if they get overwhelmed, but will teams be willing to part with multiple premium players in exchange for ~45 starts from Halladay? I’m guessing Toronto will have to decide whether they want one top notch guy, or several pretty good players, because I don’t see anyone offering two players who could end up on this list next year.

#36: Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas: 1.0 WAR

He’s probably the most physically gifted player in the game, a supreme athlete with the ability to do everything on the field. He was a +4 win player in his first full season of major league playing time, and he’s improved defensively since last year. A true middle of the order hitter with defensive value, heading into his prime, and 3+ years away from free agency, he’s the prototypical franchise player. Injury concerns drag him down a bit, as does the lack of cost certainty, but on talent, he’s top five.


2009 MLB Trade Value: #45-#41

Continuing on with our trade value series.

#45: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego: 2.9 WAR

How different would the perception of Gonzalez be if he didn’t play half his games in a cavern? He’s posting a .273 ISO despite playing in the best pitchers park in baseball and rarely getting a pitch to hit because his teammates are so inferior. Oh, and then, there’s his contract – he’s set to make just $13 million through 2011. The Padres fans would riot if they dealt him, but his value will never be higher than it is now.

#44: Max Scherzer, RHP, Arizona: 2.1 WAR

Though he’s been projected as a reliever by many due to command problems and concerns about his delivery, Scherzer has established himself as a quality major league starter. The classic power pitcher, he has a career 3.50 FIP between last year and this year, and he’s still a couple of years from arbitration eligibility. He hasn’t yet shown that he can endure a full 200 inning season yet, so the risk of the unknown holds him back a little bit, but the overall package is still quite valuable.

#43: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington: 3.2 WAR

For all that is wrong with the franchise, Zimmerman is the shining beacon of goodness. A good hitter and great fielder who isn’t yet 25, he’s already one of the best players in the game and has upside beyond what he is now. The newly signed contract extension will keep him in D.C. through 2013, but at rates that are just discounted, not massive bargains. He’ll likely always be a bit undervalued because so much of his value is tied to his glove, but if Washington ever puts some major league players next to him, he’s a great foundation piece.

#42: Joba Chamberlain, RHP, New York: 0.9 WAR

So, the conversion to the rotation hasn’t gone so well yet. His velocity is down, contact against him is way up, and he’s posting a 4.78 FIP because his command hasn’t improved. However, he’s still a premium arm pitching in the toughest division in baseball, and we’ve seen what he’s capable of when he’s going right. We can’t ignore the upside just because the last month or two has been ugly. The risks are significant, however – if he doesn’t start pitching better in the near future, he could easily end up back in the bullpen. Like Hamels, high risk and reward. At least he’s still cheap.

#41: Josh Beckett, RHP, Boston: 3.5 WAR

There’s little question that Beckett is a legitimate ace, with a projected 3.46 FIP going forward that is outstanding given the context of the division he pitches in. Still just 29, he’s a front of the rotation pitcher in his prime, and he’s sustained his velocity over the years, which has to be encouraging. However, he’s also only signed through 2010, so while his present value is very high, his future value is limited, as he’s going to get very expensive very quickly.


2009 MLB Trade Value: #50-#46

This afternoon, I announced the beginning of the 2009 MLB Trade Value series. Today, we kick it off with the bottom five.

#50: Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee: 3.7 WAR

The big man is having the best season of his career, as he’s upped his walk rate while hitting over .300, and the power is still there. He’s an offensive beast, and at just 25 years old, he’s headed for the prime of his career. Unfortunately, he’s a couple of years away from being a DH, and the lack of defensive value limits the amount of teams that would give up the farm to get him.

#49: Jered Weaver, RHP, Anaheim: 2.5 WAR

Despite the ERA fluctuations, Weaver has been remarkably consistent since arriving in the majors, posting a FIP between 3.80 and 4.06 each year. That’s a quality pitcher, to be sure, but he’s not the ace he looked like in ’06 or earlier this year. Toss in the health concerns and his 50% flyball rate, and while most teams would love to have him, he wouldn’t command a king’s ransom as he heads into his arbitration years.

#48: Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia: 1.7 WAR

After looking ace-like last October, he’s resumed being a good but not great starter this year, thanks to his home run problem. Health concerns will always be an issue with Hamels, and he’s no longer dirt cheap. He’s certainly a valuable arm with upside beyond what he is now, but the risks are fairly significant. He’s one of the guys who could easily be 30 spots higher, or nowhere near the list at all, at this time next year.

#47: Robinson Cano, 2B, New York: 2.2 WAR

Cano has rebounded from a lousy 2008 season, showing improved contact skills and finding his power stroke again, which make him one of the game’s better offensive middle infielders. He doesn’t walk and his defense isn’t great, but the rest of the package makes up for a few shortcomings. The contract extension he signed contains two team options that could keep him in pinstripes through 2013 at below market rates, as well, so he’s the rare Yankee other teams could actually afford to trade for.

#46: Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas: 1.5 WAR

He’s 20 years old and already a league average major league shortstop, thanks in large part to his defensive abilities. He has a good approach at the plate, solid contact skills, and should develop some additional power as he grows. His upside is extremely high, and he’s already a quality major league player. His reduced present value, due to the lack of current power, is the only thing that drives him this far down the list.


2009 MLB Trade Value: Introduction

With the trade deadline just a few weeks away, it’s time to revisit the annual MLB Trade Value series that I’ve been doing for the last, I don’t know, four or five years. I stole the idea from Bill Simmons, who does an NBA version for ESPN.com, though my version leaves out the references to teenage soap operas and movies from 25 years ago. Sorry.

Essentially, the idea is to take all the information that goes into encapsulating a player’s value to an organization – his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances – and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball. The #1 guy wouldn’t get traded, straight up, for any other player in baseball. The #10 guy is someone who his organization would call untouchable, but if one of the nine guys above him was made available, they’d rethink that stance. You get the idea.

Over the last year, with the recession and the increasing intelligence of major league organizations, we’ve seen a significant rise in the valuation of young players. Where even a few years ago, people were applauding the Mariners decision to trade a bushel of talent for Erik Bedard, pretty much everyone now realizes that players like Adam Jones and Chris Tillman are more valuable than even established all-star pitchers, because of their ability to produce over multiple years for next to no salary. So, there are going to be some big name, high level talents that don’t appear on this list.

Johan Santana, for instance, isn’t on it, even though he’s a great pitcher. He’s just not great enough to justify giving up an elite talent in order to pay him premium dollars. Same with Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Great players, but not among the top 50 assets in major league baseball.

So, over the next week, we’ll count down from #50 to #1, going in bursts of five players. We’ll kick off with #50-46 tonight at 5 pm, and then do 10 players a day for the rest of the week. The top 5 will be posted next Monday.

Making this list is hard. There’s so many good players in the game right now, and trying to decide who fits and who doesn’t feels like an impossible task at times. So, to close out the introduction, here are the five guys who just missed the cut. You could probably make a good case for any of them being included, but for me, they were just edged out by the guys above them.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Boston – 3.1 WAR

He’s turned himself into a terrific player, but he’s 30 years old and has reached the stage where he’s getting paid significant money.

Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay – 4.6 WAR

He’s having an amazing season, is a switch-hitter, and amazingly versatile, but is this kind of power sustainable long term, or is he a 28-year-old having a career year?

Javier Vazquez, RHP, Atlanta – 4.0 WAR

Having the best season of his career, but his ERA is still half a run higher than his FIP, continuing his maddening career tendency to perform worse than his peripherals.

Gordon Beckham, 3B/SS, Chicago – 0.2 WAR

A year after getting drafted, he hit his way to the majors. If I was completely sure he’d be a quality defensive shortstop long term, he’d have made the list.

Pablo Sandoval, 3B/1B/C, San Francisco – 3.1 WAR

The guy once described as “Fat Ichiro” now goes by Kung Fu Panda, and while he’s a strange player, he can really hit. But he’s 22 going on 30 with that body.