Chicago White Sox Top 28 Prospects

© Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Chicago White Sox. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.

White Sox Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Bryan Ramos 20.1 A+ 3B 2024 45+
2 Jose Rodriguez 21.0 AA SS 2023 45
3 Colson Montgomery 20.2 A 3B 2026 45
4 Oscar Colas 23.6 A+ RF 2025 45
5 Romy Gonzalez 25.6 MLB SS 2022 45
6 Jared Kelley 20.6 A SIRP 2025 40+
7 Wes Kath 19.7 A 3B 2026 40+
8 Caleb Freeman 24.2 AA SIRP 2022 40
9 Jimmy Lambert 27.4 MLB SP 2022 40
10 Sean Burke 23.4 A+ MIRP 2025 40
11 Norge Vera 21.9 R SP 2025 40
12 Matthew Thompson 21.7 A+ SP 2024 40
13 Andrew Dalquist 21.5 A+ SP 2024 40
14 Lenyn Sosa 22.3 AA 2B 2023 40
15 Kohl Simas 22.3 A SP 2025 40
16 Harvin Mendoza 23.2 A+ 1B 2024 40
17 Yoelqui Céspedes 24.6 AA CF 2023 40
18 Yolbert Sanchez 25.1 AA SS 2025 40
19 Jake Burger 26.0 MLB 1B 2022 40
20 Cristian Mena 19.3 A SP 2024 35+
21 Kade McClure 26.2 AAA SP 2022 35+
22 Davis Martin 25.3 AA SP 2023 35+
23 Jonathan Stiever 25.0 MLB SP 2022 35+
24 Gil Luna Jr. 22.7 A+ MIRP 2025 35+
25 Hunter Schryver 27.1 AAA SIRP 2022 35+
26 James Beard 21.6 A CF 2024 35+
27 Tanner McDougal 19.1 R SP 2026 35+
28 Yoan Aybar 24.8 AA SIRP 2022 35+
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45+ FV Prospects

1. Bryan Ramos, 3B

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (CHW)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 50/60 35/55 50/45 35/60 60

Ramos is still a fairly crude baseball player, but the fact that he has performed the way he has while also being described (mostly by scouts) as “raw,” means that if he starts to polish his impressive tools, he’s going to be a star. He takes some reckless swings, but he’s still a career .263/.354/.428 hitter in the minors, with all but his 2022 production coming during his teenage years. Most hitters who swing as freely as Ramos does strike out a lot, but he has tended to K at a 20% or lower clip throughout his pro career. He has plus bat speed, a compact, athletic swing that features a very flexible lower half and a hitting posture that allows Ramos to cover most of the plate with swings that generate lift. Based on his age and the quality of his statistical performance, ZiPS loves Ramos, ranking him 20th among all the prospects in the minor leagues. We knew Szymborski’s model had Ramos slotted that highly on its preseason rankings, which caused those of us working on the Top 100 to re-evaluate him heavily in the lead up to the list’s publication. Scouting sources generally agreed he was too risky and unpolished for that right now, but that Ramos has the tools for it. He also has flashes of brilliance on defense and his athleticism makes him extremely rangy over at third base, though that part of his profile may not be settled as Ramos has gotten reps at second and third in the past. In many ways, Ramos is like Rays prospect Curtis Mead, except a few levels lower in the minors. He clearly has feel for contact and generates exciting power when he makes that contact, but the plate discipline piece and unsettled defensive fit make him a prospect of extreme variance. He’s off to a tremendous statistical start in 2022 and could be a Top 100 prospect if even one of these issues is settled in his favor this season.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (CHW)
Age 21.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 50/55 30/40 55/55 40/50 50

It’s going to be interesting to see how Rodriguez shakes out. He has some really exciting bat speed for a viable middle infield prospect, but his approach is bad, and his swing path tends to limit where in the zone he can do damage. Seen as a hit-tool oriented prospect in the very early stages of his career, he has added strength and explosion at the same time that opposing pitchers are growing familiar with his hyper-aggressive approach and are avoiding his hot zones, especially now that he’s at Double-A.

Rodriguez is best at damaging pitches down and in. He can rotate with ferocity while quickly getting the bat head on plane, with lift, through that quadrant of the zone. While he has the bat control to make contact with pitches all over the place, he tends to poke and spray a lot of low-lying contact to the opposite field, sometimes inside-outing pitches that he has no business staying inside of. His bat speed and short levers also help him to get on top of letter-high fastballs when his footwork is on time for these sorts of pitches, which happens inconsistently. Pitchers at Double-A are peppering the zone up and away from Rodriguez early in 2022 to limit the damage he’s doing, and because he likes to swing so much, he’s offering at them. He’s running a career walk rate just a shade under 5%, which is in red flag territory even though he has made it work so far (he’s a .293 career hitter) and has some margin for error because he’s a middle infielder.

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While he’ll do some acrobatic things on defense that show off his incredible range and flexibility, Rodriguez has below-average hands and barely enough arm for the left side of the infield. He can sometimes rush his throws because he knows he can’t plant and fire a rocket over there, which can pull the first baseman off the bag. Set to turn 21 a few weeks after list publication, it’s fair to continue to project on Rodriguez’s defense and anticipate that it will polish up enough for him to remain at shortstop. The age portion of this equation makes us want to give grace to Rodriguez’s offensive immaturity, too, though that feature undoubtedly makes him riskier as a prospect. There’s evidence of special bat-to-ball skill here, which is the most important thing. We’ll speculate that Rodriguez is also a candidate to platoon in a way specific to swing plane/pitch plane matchups given how much damage he does down and in.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2021 from Southridge HS (IN) (CHW)
Age 20.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/65 30/60 50/40 30/55 55

Lots of high-level decision makers ran to Indiana to see Montgomery as part of a late spring jaunt through the Midwest, and he was one of the buzziest high schoolers just as the draft approached, with some pre-draft smoke near the top 10. He ultimately fell to the White Sox at 22nd overall. Montgomery has uncommon athleticism for a 6-foot-4 infielder and actually looks okay at shortstop, even though his instincts and internal clock are not very good. Some of this could be because he’s a Midwestern prospect who has only just begun to adjust to the speed of pro ball. While his geographic background (and two-spot background —Montgomery was a high-level hooper in high school) is arguably a “late-bloomer” trait, Colson was well over 19 on draft day and began his first full pro season at age 20, so there’s some demographic push and pull happening in the guts of his profile.

He was an average runner during the 2021 Complex League season but looked a little heavy-footed and slow-twitch during the spring of ’22, leaving scouts who had only seen him during that stretch to project him off of shortstop, with one source considering him a risk to move to first base due to his size. We’re not quite there, but it is easy to envision Montgomery needing to move to a corner, especially if potential bans on shifting make it harder to hide an eventual lack of range. That might still be fine. Montgomery’s power is impressive (he already has lots and he’s likely to grow into more), and if he hits enough, it will profile at any position. He is especially good at barreling pitches in the bottom third of the zone and sometimes ones that are beneath it. Eric watched him golf one off his shoe tops and send it on a frozen rope directly over a center fielder’s head during the spring. He was vulnerable at the top of the strike zone during his pre-draft summer and it will be key for him to close this hole as he climbs up the ladder. There is certainly risk here, but even if only some of the components that are currently lacking start to come together for Montgomery, he’s going to be a good big leaguer. If several of them do, he’ll be a star.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2022 from Cuba (CHW)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 209 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 60/60 35/55 40/40 30/45 55

Colas, who signed in January, has looked good this spring. His big lefty bat speed is as advertised, his feel for the barrel is better, and it’s exciting that he’s hit the ground running after such a long layoff from high-level baseball. Colas debuted in Cuba’s Serie Nacional as a 17-year-old, but the most telling and important stretch of his pre-MLB career came in Japan when he played for the Fukuoka Hawks from 2017-19 in Japan’s Western League, one of NPB’s two minor leagues. He slashed .282/.343/.483 in 187 games spread across multiple seasons in Japan. After the 2019 NPB season, Colas essentially defected from Cuba by not returning after his season in Asia. He then began a long standoff with the Hawks regarding his contract’s validity, arguing that he and his mother (he was a minor when he was initially transferred to Fukuoka) had insufficient time to review Spanish-language contract documents after he arrived in Japan. Colas won his grievance and was released from his deal, setting things up for him to establish residency outside of Cuba and sign with an MLB club this year, subject to the bonus restrictions of international amateur players. He got $2.7 million from the Sox and came to camp in fantastic shape, which wasn’t always true while he was in Japan.

He has been getting reps in center field, where some scouts who saw him this spring think he has a chance to stay, though Eric doesn’t, especially not in this org, where there’s a 7 defender in the big leagues right now. Colas might have the bat to profile in an everyday right field role. His swing is geared for power in the bottom of the zone, where his cut has lift, but Colas can move the barrel all over the place and is more of an all-fields slash-and-spray hitter in other parts of the strike zone. While he’s walking at a pretty good clip at High-A Winston Salem as of publication, he walked just 7% of the time in NPB and had an expansive approach during Eric’s in-person looks during the spring, which is part of how it became evident that he has such good bat control and hand-eye coordination as he swung at pitches out of the zone. Because he’s ticketed for a corner (a former two-way player, Colas’ arm strength is the only thing that was lackluster during backfield looks), the approach piece is important here, but early assessment of the feel to hit is encouraging and allows for a slight bump to Colas’ FV compared to before he signed. He’s now projecting as the larger half of a right field platoon.

5. Romy Gonzalez, SS

Drafted: 18th Round, 2018 from Miami (CHW)
Age 25.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/30 55/55 40/45 55/55 35/40 60

Gonzalez had a breakout 2021, slugging 20 homers in 78 games at Double-A Birmingham before a promotion to Charlotte for the final few weeks of the season. He has experience playing defense all over the field, seeing time mostly at shortstop, though he spent at least a little bit of time everywhere but first base and catcher in 2021. He continued to get run at a variety of positions during big league spring training but has only played short at Charlotte in the week and a half prior to publication.

Gonzalez is a physical guy who’s a little bit stiff, but he is rangy with a strong, if sometimes erratic arm. Even if his actions aren’t slick and sexy, Romy does some stuff on defense that makes you think he can actually pass at shortstop, though he made 19 errors in 80 games there, which would easily lead the majors if you prorated that to a full season; Bo Bichette actually led in errors in 2021 with 24. I know we’re talking about errors, but that’s a big gap. He has had some throwing accuracy issues early on in Triple-A this year. Gonzalez’s feel for infield defense is much more polished than what he shows you in the outfield, though his speed under way and effort level make up somewhat for his lack of feel. It’s important that he find a way to play multiple positions since it’s a much more likely avenue for him to impact a big league club, as his hit tool issues will make it tough for him to play every day.

Gonzalez’s carrying tool is his above-average raw power, but he has a huge hole on the inner half and swings through middle-middle and middle-in pitches with alarming frequency. Leave something up and away from him, though, and he’ll punish you. He has the strength to get extended on pitches on the outer third and do damage the other way. Big league pitchers are going to attack him with inner half velocity and dare him to catch it, and Romy may not be able to. As long as he’s playing some shortstop, it’s perfectly fine for him to end up being a 30 bat provided he’s getting to some of that power and helping enable managerial creativity through his versatility.

40+ FV Prospects

6. Jared Kelley, SIRP

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2020 from Refugio HS (TX) (CHW)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 30/40 60/70 30/50 92-96 / 99

Peak Kelley sat 94-97 mph with a plus-plus changeup, and even though he lacked some of the other typical markers of a high-end high school pitching prospect (his frame was already more than maxed out, and he didn’t have a good breaking ball), he was still well regarded because there were two plus pitches already on board. He became Chicago’s big over-slot signing of 2020, garnering a $3 million bonus in the third round.

Shoulder and elbow issues popped up for Kelley in 2021, with the former delaying the start to his season and the latter ending it. When he was healthy, he was still throwing hard, sitting 94-97 and averaging just shy of 96 on his fastball. That was before the shoulder injury, though, and Kelley came out this spring sitting 93-94. He looked to be in better condition, and he was using only his slider in Eric’s in-person look. That slider needs to develop, so it’s important for Kelley to use it heavily in the minors, which may impact how he’s performing statistically. During the spring, the slider was in the 83-87 mph range. It flashed above-average but was consistently below, with lots of hittable 30s and 40s. Breaking ball development is tough, and that old scout adage about it either being in the wrist or not has been echoed by studies at Driveline Baseball that have concluded that talent for spinning a baseball is innate in most cases. Kelley has a lot of traits consistent with relievers before you even consider his injuries, but if he has the fastball/changeup combo he showed in college, he’ll be a very good one.

7. Wes Kath, 3B

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2021 from Desert Mountain HS (CHW)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 45/55 25/50 50/45 45/60 50

The early portion of the pandemic made it hard for Kath to play a lot pre-draft summer showcase ball, as the events that would normally occur in the western portion of the country were moved to the Southeast. Instead he was seen frequently in a wood bat summer league in Arizona, at Area Codes, and at one Perfect Game event in October, before crushing varsity pitching the next spring. Kath has a good looking swing, but he often swung inside and underneath fastballs on the outer third at those showcase events. Because his participation against curated competition was fairly limited, these issues didn’t become part of Kath’s pre-draft narrative. He had trouble recognizing breaking balls during Eric’s in-person looks this spring. We now some evidence that Kath has both a plate coverage issue and potential breaking ball recognition issues, causing an overhaul of how we’re projecting him compared to our pre-draft assessment.

There are still carrying tools here, though. Kath has a big, projectable frame (standing next to Colson Montgomery on the left side of the infield can make this easy to miss) and the long-term power projection that comes with it. He’s also a fantastic defensive third baseman already. Because the White Sox have Montgomery playing shortstop, Kath has been strictly limited to third in affiliated ball and in the instances when Eric has seen him during instructs and spring training. His footwork, hands, actions, and arm strength are all plus, and in most circumstances, it’d be worth sending him out at shortstop to see how it goes. While the contact-related warning signs here are worrying, there are still some obvious paths and precedents for Kath to be an integral big leaguer. Matt Chapman is a super-charged version of this overall profile (definitely not a comp), while Ryan McMahon and late-career Matt Carpenter are fair offensive comps, but have inferior gloves.

40 FV Prospects

8. Caleb Freeman, SIRP

Drafted: 15th Round, 2019 from Texas Tech (CHW)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 55/60 40/40 92-95 / 97

Freeman is a high-probability middle relief prospect with mid-90s velocity and two good breaking balls. His fastball sits 95 mph and has vertical action. It plays great with his 78-82 mph 12-to-6 curveball, which spins around 2900 rpm. He also has a hard slider in the 84-87 mph range that has purely horizontal movement, and enough length to miss some bats away from righties. Freeman finished 2021 at Double-A, then went to the Fall League. Down several pitchers to start 2022, the White Sox have been forced to turn to some closer-to-the-majors arms who are further down this prospect list, but Freeman isn’t all that far off and has a shot to make a case for a big league roster spot at some point this year. He projects in consistent middle relief.

9. Jimmy Lambert, SP

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Fresno State (CHW)
Age 27.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/55 45/45 50/50 45/45 91-94 / 95

Lambert’s strikeout rate exploded from 16% in 2017 to nearly 29% in ’18. The cause? A slight uptick in velocity paired with an arm slot change that has him coming straight over the top, creating more life on his heater; it also creates more vertical action on his breaking stuff. This delivery appears tough to maintain, as Lambert has to contort his body to get to that slot, but he hasn’t been wild since making the change. While Lambert doesn’t have surgical control, he peppers the zone with his 92-94 mph fastball, he’ll occasionally reach back for 96, and all of his secondary pitches are pretty good. His slider typically finishes on the glove-side of the plate (though it sometimes catches a lot of it) while his changeup finishes in its lower third, and his mid-70s spike curveball provides him with an occasional change of pace option. After having TJ in the middle of 2019 and enduring a 60-day IL stint toward the end of the ’20 season, Lambert was healthy in ’21 and made four spot starts throughout the year. He figures to continue in a very important spot starter role on a top-heavy White Sox staff, but could probably take a turn every fifth day as a fifth starter.

10. Sean Burke, MIRP

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2021 from Maryland (CHW)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 50/50 30/40 30/40 91-95 / 98

Burke is a really athletic 6-foot-6 righty (he was a good high school hooper) who had TJ near the end of his senior year of high school, then missed his entire true freshman season at Maryland in order to rehab. The start of his sophomore year (22 innings, 35 strikeouts) was electric, as Burke was up to 95 mph and showed a vertically-oriented fastball/curveball combo, but that was the 2020 season and he couldn’t truly establish himself for the following year’s draft. He looked relievery throughout 2021, flashing big heat but generally sitting 90-93, while walking 42 hitters in 74 innings; the White Sox took him in the third round.

While his repertoire has begun to develop, the strike-throwing piece is still rough around the edges. Burke sat 92-93 and was up to 95 during Eric’s instructs look, then was sitting 94-95 and touching 96 this spring. His upper-80s curveball has good depth but is somewhat easy to identify out of his hand, a pitch Eric grades as average on balance. Burke worked with more sliders this spring and that pitch is promising, sitting in the 85-88 mph range and at times operating like a nasty cutter. Eric has seen changeups anywhere from 84 to 91 but they are so infrequent that he doesn’t even have a grade in his notes; it should be considered a purely developmental pitch at this point. There are certainly some late-bloomer traits here since Burke has really only had one full season of pitching since 2018, but there’s a pretty big control/command gap to bridge if he’s going to start.

11. Norge Vera, SP

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2021 from Cuba (CHW)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 40/50 40/45 30/50 90-94 / 97

Vera sat 90-94 mph during pre-agreement workouts but averaged 95 in the 2021 DSL, where he pitched 19 totally dominant innings. The lack of innings count may have helped him maintain that kind of arm strength, though. He has a cutter, curveball and changeup, all of which are occasionally good, but inconsistent. He’s not expected to get going in extended spring training until late May due to a lat strain that the org disclosed to the media in early March. While he’s roughly the same as the two high school pitchers the White Sox drafted in 2019, Vera’s date of signing gives him through the 2024 season to polish his secondary offerings and build a starter’s workload. In addition to the present arm strength, Vera has a prototypical starter’s frame and a good looking delivery. You can project pretty heavily on his command (which was scattered during workouts) and his changeup based on how graceful and fluid his mechanics are, but that was also true of Andrew Dalquist and Matthew Thompson, who haven’t popped in a big way during their time in the org.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from Cypress Ranch HS (TX) (CHW)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 184 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 40/45 50/55 40/50 35/50 91-94 / 96

Since becoming Chicago’s second rounder in 2019, Thompson has progressed through the low minors in solid if unspectacular fashion. He hasn’t had much of a velocity spike since high school, though this was once a variable aspect of his profile and he has now seemingly stabilized in the 93-95 mph range, which is where he sat in 2021 and again throughout the spring of ’22. Thompson’s curveball doesn’t spin very much but it still has pretty good depth and is consistently average. The pitch data we sourced from team contacts in 2021 does not have him using a slider, but he was throwing what Eric thought was a new slide piece in the 83-86 mph range this spring. That pitch is below average, but assuming it’s new, it should continue to improve to a point of viability. Thompson’s changeup is also in the 40/45-grade area. He’s had good arm-side fastball and changeup feel during live looks, though his walk numbers indicate that portion of his game is still a little below average, too. Based on Thompson’s age, frame, and the grace and fluidity of his mechanics, we’re inclined to continue to project on enough components here that he profiles as a fifth starter.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from Redondo Union HS (CA) (CHW)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/45 40/50 45/55 40/50 30/40 91-93 / 95

Dalquist and Thompson have moved together in scouts’ collective consciousness since both were $2 million bonus signees from the 2019 draft with projectable frames and precocious breaking balls. Dalquist’s fastball has more natural ride and while he’s progressed from a velocity standpoint, he has consistently walked about 14% of opposing hitters in pro ball and is starting to trend toward the bullpen. While his curveball, which has beautiful shape, was his most-used secondary pitch in high school, a mid-80s slider has since come to the forefront and was his most-used secondary in 2021. The combination of fastball carry and his two viable breaking balls give Dalquist a starter’s repertoire, but he has yet to show that he can work with a starter’s efficiency. It’s too early to totally cut bait on him starting since he doesn’t have to be put on the 40-man until after the 2023 season and he could still conceivably be deployed as a starter during his first option year. But because Dalquist hasn’t made real strides in this area, his forecast is starting to shift toward the bullpen.

14. Lenyn Sosa, 2B

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (CHW)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 40/45 30/40 40/30 30/40 45

Sosa is a slow-twitch athlete without huge tools, but he can put the bat on the ball with remarkable consistency and is a high-probability big league role player as a result. While he’s fairly heavy-footed and lacks anything close to the typical middle infielder’s athleticism, Sosa has great feel for adjusting his footwork and body position so he can field grounders and turn the baseball around quickly. He barely has enough raw arm strength for the left side of the infield but his quick hands and internal clock typically enable him to lob the ball over in time. Sosa has below-average power and is a very aggressive swinger who has run walk rates in the low single digits throughout his career. There are scouts who think he is a second base-only prospect due to the lack of arm strength. If that’s true, then he’s likely a fringe big leaguer, an above-replacement upper-level depth option who can fill in at the keystone when there’s an injury. If he can actually play all over the infield, then he fits as a contact-oriented bench infielder in the 1 WAR area.

15. Kohl Simas, SP

(CHW)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 50/55 40/45 30/50 92-94 / 96

Simas had a nomadic amateur career in California, transferring from Fresno City College to San Diego and then finally to San Diego State for the 2021 season. He struggled there, walking 16 and surrendering 16 runs in only 16 total innings of work. Still, there was interesting raw material to work with. Simas’ arm was super loose and whippy, and his curveball was occasionally nasty. He went to the Cape Cod League after the college season and was seen by a lot of fresh eyes in limited work there, with the Sox ultimately inking him to a post-draft deal. Simas’ velocity climbed about two ticks after signing and was in the 93-95 mph range again this spring on the backfields. He seems to have found a more consistent release and has been pounding the zone so far in 2022. His mid-80s slider and upper-70s curveball are both consistently average and flash better than that. The whole package is already on par with many of the other starting pitching prospects in this system and the rate of Simas’ progression is exciting. It’s sometimes hard to know whether to extrapolate on very quick improvements like this or anticipate a regression to the mean. In this case, though, Simas has sustained a new level of stuff and command for long enough to feel resolve that the White Sox plucked an undrafted guy with a shot to pitch in their rotation.

16. Harvin Mendoza, 1B

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (CHW)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 55/55 30/45 30/30 30/40 45

Mendoza is a squat, physical, lefty-hitting first baseman with tremendous hand-eye coordination and bat control, striking out at a 14% clip throughout his career. The short-levered Mendoza tracks pitches deep into the hitting zone and can decide at the last second whether or not he wants to swing, which helps him spoil pitcher’s pitches and stay on breaking balls later than most hitters. His operation in the box is pretty conservative, but he has super strong wrists and forearms that generate doubles. At a platoon advantage most of the time, Mendoza has the skills to be a role-playing 1B/DH and a potent bench bat, maybe even a short-term, low-end first base regular.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2021 from Cuba (CHW)
Age 24.6 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/30 60/60 40/45 60/60 45/45 80

While we continue to be skeptical of Céspedes because of his approach at the plate, his stock is absolutely up this spring because he is running much faster than last year and has given himself a chance to stay in center field. He has viable range out there now, and was posting average run times during the spring, looking plus under way. Céspedes does tend to get himself out by offering at early-count junk (he is running a 60% swing% as of publication, which would have ranked second in the big leagues behind Luis Robert in 2021), but if he can stay in center, even for a little while, he has enough power to support some kind of part-time role despite what is likely to be a very low OBP. His All-World arm gives him another way to impact the game, too. Maybe the ball/strike recognition piece will still come; because of his defection and the pandemic, Céspedes barely saw pro-quality pitching in his early-20s, not really until last year. His skill set is similar to that of a righty-hitting Brett Phillips.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Cuba (CHW)
Age 25.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 45/45 30/35 60/60 50/55 60

Sanchez spent 2019 in the DSL due to visa issues and faced competition often four and five years his junior, so 2021 was the first season in which the Cuban infielder could be evaluated against anything close to age-appropriate competition. He did very well, slashing .308/.352/.419 split between High- and Double-A, striking out at a tiny 12% clip, and showing that he’s especially adept at getting the bat on the ball in the bottom of the strike zone. Sanchez can also play all over the infield. He has mediocre range but checks every other defensive box there is, and he’s a viable shortstop defender. Because Sanchez seems to be making so much of his contact in the bottom of the zone, rather than all over it, it’s possible upper-level pitching will find a way to handle him. Remember, this guy spent most of 2021 as a 24-year-old in A-ball, and that puts his statistical performance in an important context. He’s a high-probability big leaguer, though, probably as a glove-first utility infielder.

19. Jake Burger, 1B

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Missouri State (CHW)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 60/60 45/45 30/30 35/35 60

Burger persevered through a myriad of severe injuries (including two Achilles ruptures) and found a way to get reps during 2020 by playing for the Normal CornBelters in a makeshift league put together after COVID squashed the minor league season, teeing himself up to earn a 40-man spot after a good showing at instructs. Finally playing affiliated ball again in 2021, he clubbed 18 homers at Charlotte and got a two-week cup of coffee in the big leagues. This alone is a triumph, and by all accounts Burger is an affable young man with a great sense of humor. But due to his size, his general stiffness, and his injury history, we don’t view him as a great long-term fit at third base, and his swing-and-miss issues (27% K% at Triple-A in 2021, 35% in a small big league sample) are scary, whether or not you consider him a 1B/DH-only fit. Still, you can squint and see some avenues through which Burger can contribute. Yandy Díaz has similar stiffness issues that limit him at third base, for instance, so maybe Burger can be a power-over-hit version who gets hidden at third base on occasion.

35+ FV Prospects

20. Cristian Mena, SP

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Dominican Republic (CHW)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
30/45 50/60 40/45 25/55 88-92 / 94

Mena is a projectable young righty with precocious feel for spin. He needs to throw harder, as his fastball lacks the movement to be effective at his current velocity. He was in the 90-92 mph range for Eric this spring, which is where he was throughout most of 2021. His slurve-y curveball sits in the low-80s and has great bite and depth; it’s a potential plus pitch. There’s also some feel for a changeup here, though it resides in the upper-80s and either needs a little more power action or to find a little more of a velo gap between it and his heater. Now at Low-A, Mena is a developmental starter prospect on pace to compete for a spot starter role in 2024 and perhaps something more substantial in the years after.

21. Kade McClure, SP

Drafted: 6th Round, 2017 from Louisville (CHW)
Age 26.2 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 45/50 40/45 45/50 92-94 / 95

McClure missed 2018 due to a knee surgery, then pitched well (especially from a strike-throwing perspective) across two A-ball levels in ’19. In the fall of 2020, he was also throwing harder: after sitting 89-92 mph and touching 94 in 2019, McClure was suddenly sitting 92-95 with a host of viable secondary pitches. He held most of that velocity increase in 2021 when he sat 92-93 and pitched well at Double-A, striking out 27% of opposing batters. His finishing pitch is a firm, tight, mid-80s slider with short, late bite. He can create some arm-side action on his changeup but the slider is the only above-average pitch here. The White Sox left McClure off their 40-man this offseason, but given their relative lack of upper-level pitching depth, he’s probably in line to play a spot starter role at some point in 2022.

22. Davis Martin, SP

Drafted: 18th Round, 2018 from Texas Tech (CHW)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 40/45 50/50 30/30 40/45 92-95 / 97

Martin had two consecutive seasons of strong peripherals (a roughly 25% K% and 7% BB% combined in 2019 and ’21) while he also ran an ERA over 5.00. He’s sitting 93-94 mph and touching 97 as a starter, his fastball has carry at the letters, and he has two fair breaking balls that play pretty well off his fastball. His feel for location is not as good as his raw walk totals might make you think, but the shape of his fastball gives him margin for error in the strike zone. He’s tracking like a spot starter.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Indiana (CHW)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 45/50 45/45 40/45 50/50 93-96 / 97

Stiever has had some injury issues since his 2019 breakout and velocity explosion, most recently a lat surgery that ended his ’21 campaign and has him shelved to start this season. He was throwing hard in 2021 and his peripherals were pretty good, but he still ran a 5.84 ERA at Triple-A and was homer-prone. At peak, he looked like a No. 4/5 starter, but he has been on the fifth starter/reliever fringe for most of his tenure as a prospect, and the severity of this most recent injury is opinion-altering.

24. Gil Luna Jr., MIRP

Drafted: 9th Round, 2021 from Arizona (CHW)
Age 22.7 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 173 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/45 55/60 30/35 91-95 / 97

John Kazanas, Chicago’s four corners area scout, may have plucked another ill-performing college arm out of the University of Arizona who is now in the midst of a breakout in pro ball. In 2019, Avery Weems ran a 7.15 ERA in Tucson but looked so good during instructs that fall that the Rangers traded for him. This year it’s Luna, who threw more innings in a 2019 collegiate summer league than he ever did during a season at U of A. He also had an ERA over 7.00 as a junior and went back to school for a fourth year. He pitched well but only threw 21 innings, and his college season ended early due to an arrest and subsequent suspension, as he and two teammates were involved in an off-campus fight during which another student suffered a concussion and other injuries; Luna and his teammates were charged with assault, a case which has yet to resolve. Luna struck out more than a batter per inning in college even while his fastball averaged 91 mph. At instructs, he was up to 96 and sitting 92-95, and because he is little and gets way down the mound, his heater plays at the top of the zone. His changeup is also consistently above-average or plus, while his mid-70s curveball is behind. The whole package is that of a quick-moving middle reliever if Luna can retain the new velocity.

25. Hunter Schryver, SIRP

Drafted: 7th Round, 2017 from Villanova (TBR)
Age 27.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 45/50 90-93 / 94

Schryver was acquired in a small 2018 trade with the Rays, then was pushed to Double- and Triple-A during his first full season with the Pale Hose, pitching well in Birmingham but not in Charlotte. He was a 2020 non-roster invitee but blew out and needed Tommy John in February, missing the entire season. And yet there was some light industry buzz that he was being talked about as a Rule 5 draft sleeper because Schyver’s pitch data is superlative in a specific way. Namely, his release point is really, really high (in the top 20 among minor league lefties in 2019) and yet, because he doesn’t take much of a stride down the mound, his extension is just a shade over five feet, which is very low. His release point is unique due to this combination, and it creates really weird angle on his fastball, which spins a lot relative to its velocity. Conversely, his slider has almost no spin. It’s weird. He’s a sleeper who we expect will be an up/down option year reliever.

26. James Beard, CF

Drafted: 4th Round, 2019 from Lloyd Star HS (MS) (CHW)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 40/45 30/35 80/80 40/70 40

Beard remains a long-term project as a hitter, and his crude feel to hit may ultimately prevent him from reaching the big leagues. But he can really fly and that could eventually translate to impact center field defense, which might make him rosterable on its own. His swing is athletic and Beard takes a pretty good rip; he’s not a featherweight. He has a propensity to swing over the top of breaking balls, though, and he might eventually do well to become more of a slasher than he’s currently trying to be, but it’s too early for that. He was sent back to Low-A to start 2022 and needs to show progression from a bat-to-ball standpoint to stay on here.

27. Tanner McDougal, SP

Drafted: 5th Round, 2021 from Silverado HS (NV) (CHW)
Age 19.1 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/50 40/50 40/50 20/50 90-92 / 94

McDougal has a big, projectable frame and some present arm strength. His slider is blunt but has length and can be nasty when he finishes it right. The son of former big league reliever and David Roth Special, Mike McDougal, Tanner is a developmental project. He had Tommy John surgery late in October of 2021 and is likely to miss all of this season.

28. Yoan Aybar, SIRP

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 24.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 30/35 93-96 / 98

After four fruitless pro seasons as a Red Sox outfielder, Aybar moved to the mound in 2018, and was traded to Colorado for infielder Christian Koss. He has since hopped around the waiver wire and landed with the White Sox. The 2021 season was his first actually pitching at a Rockies affiliate, and was spent entirely at Double-A throughout his second option year. He has big time arm strength, sitting 95 mph and touching 100, and at times his breaking ball looks good. It’s hard for a breaker with vertical action, it just lacks depth and is vulnerable in the strike zone. Aybar doesn’t have great feel for location, which hinders his ability to miss bats since his stuff, especially the breaking ball, is dependent on him locating it. A conversion arm who missed a year and who throws this hard still fits in this tier, but the converted guys who end up hitting it big tend to do so quickly.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

More Relievers
Anderson Severino, LHP
Bennett Sousa, LHP
Tyler Johnson, RHP
Jason Bilous, RHP
Theo Denlinger, RHP
Zach Cable, RHP
Brooks Gosswein, LHP
Garrett Schoenle, LHP

Severino signed as a minor league free agent after spending more than a half decade in the Yankees system. He has big time arm strength but scary control. Sousa is more consistent but his stuff isn’t as nasty, a tier below what I typically think of as the second lefty out of a bullpen. Both Severino and Sousa have been in the big leagues this year, which is an indication of the health-related misfortune the org has dealt with already this season. Johnson will also likely be called upon in 2022. He’s a right-handed version of Severino, walk-prone and with gigantic arm strength. Bilous is repeating Double-A as a 24-year-old after he had a 6.51 ERA in 2021. He is on the White Sox 40-man, sits about 93 mph and has an above-average changeup. He’s a spot starter right now but his best long-term fit is as a fastball/changeup reliever. The rest of this group comes from the 2021 draft. Denlinger, a self-taught blacksmith, was hurt a lot at his first college, then transferred to Bradley University and showed big arm strength there, sitting in the mid-90s with a good breaking ball but a really weird, short-striding delivery. Cable was breathing fire at 95-98 mph this spring but he also has rough command and a 40 slider. Gosswein, the club’s fourth rounder, has a good looking delivery and curveball but his fastball lacks explosion and sits about 91-93. Schoenle is a lanky three-pitch lefty who lives in the low-90s. Schoenle and Cable were signed as undrafted free agents.

Catching Depth
Carlos Pérez, C
Xavier Fernández, C
Adam Hackenberg, C

Pérez and Fernández are upper-level depth types who have good feel to hit. Pérez has 40 bat speed and a 30 arm, but he’s a good receiver. He has a 10-to-1 ball-in-play-to-swing-and-miss ratio so far this year. Fernández’s contact rates are merely above average but he has more juice than Pérez. He’s repeating Double-A. Hackenberg is a strong, athletic catcher who had considerable profile in high school, then shared time behind the dish at Clemson because teammate Jonathan French is also pretty good. Any of this group could be a passable third catcher on a 40-man.

Wilber Sanchez
Wilber Sanchez, SS

The 20-year-old Sanchez is a twitchy little middle infielder who could be an above-average defensive shortstop or plus second baseman, but the bat is light and it’s unlikely he develops more than 30-grade raw power. He’s a lot of fun to watch and could be a bench utility guy if he hits enough.

Power-Over-Hit Types
Luis Mieses, OF
Micker Adolfo, DH
DJ Gladney, 3B
Wilfred Veras, 3B
Misael Gonzalez, RF
Benyamin Bailey, DH

This is a pretty self-explanatory group. Everyone here has water-carrying raw power, but in many cases, they have approach issues that limit their ability to make enough contact to really get to it in games. Mieses has the best pure feel to hit of this group, and a huge, impressive frame, but he swings at everything. Adolfo was outrighted this year and seems like a fit in Asia. Gladney (who signed baseballs for my cousin’s kids as they caught him exiting the bathroom this spring — they really appreciated it) hits the ball in the air consistently but ran a K% over 40% in 2021. Veras and Gonzalez put up big numbers on the complex last year but beware of their approaches. Bailey’s athleticism and explosiveness have dialed down.

System Overview

This is the worst system in baseball but it got that way because the White Sox graduated (or traded players for) guys who now comprise the core of a contender. It’s less an indictment of the club’s ability to acquire and develop talent and more an indication that they’ve done a good job. They may be outmuscled at the trade deadline, though, as most other clubs have more ammunition to make a deal, and the team’s array of early-season injuries make it more likely that the Sox will need to make some. This club is not very proactive on the margins and doesn’t scoop up players with workable traits who become freely available via waivers. That’s the way clubs like the Rays and Dodgers find their John Curtisses and Phil Bickfords and manifest upper-level depth out of thin air in a way the White Sox badly need to right now.

New amateur scouting director Mike Shirley has now shepherded two drafts, both featuring lots of early picks in the region of the country where he lives. They’ve taken a shot on an over-slot prep arm in each of his two drafts (Jared Kelley, Tanner McDougal), but it’s probably too early to start finding meaningful patterns in the org’s behavior here, since it’s been just two drafts and one of them was only five rounds.

Internationally, the White Sox continue to be more active in the Cuban market than most other teams, waiting to commit their pool space later than most clubs in pursuit of whichever Cuban players come free later on. This strategy often leads them to put their eggs in just a few baskets during a signing period, but it’s worked out pretty well, and Bryan Ramos, Oscar Colas, and Norge Vera are the next potential wave.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

60 Comments
Oldest
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spacemanbob
4 years ago

Tanner Banks would like a word.

asaw780
4 years ago

Just one small note: Luna was their 9th rounder, not 7th.

Meg RowleyFanGraphs Staff
4 years ago
Reply to  asaw780

Indeed – updated, will be updated on The Board shortly. Thanks!

MikeSMember since 2020
4 years ago

On the heels of an 8 game losing streak, this is kicking me when I am down.

CC AFCMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  MikeS

The whole division sucks and you’re 2.5 games out of first. There’s your pick-me-up

MikeSMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

That’s what is keeping me going, but the goal was a deep playoff run or a World Championship and that’s looking less likely.

They have played 6 games this year where they have at least as many errors as runs. It’s been really tough to watch and I may just need to take a week or two off.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  MikeS

Giolito, Kopech, and Cease will be fine, and Lance Lynn will be back. A lot of their hitters are hurt or underperforming by a lot–Robert, Grandal, and Jimenez won’t be this bad. Vaughn looks like he’s taken a step forward, and Anderson’s bat (although not his defense) seems like it’s still working (something that’s always worth monitoring). And Moncada will be back. It’ll be okay.

dl80Member since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Keuchel is washed, though.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  dl80

They did sign him a year after he posted a 24% HR/FB rate. And he was going into his age 32 season. But amazingly, this is the highest K/9 he’s had since he joined the White Sox.

The whole concept of signing Dallas Keuchel was flawed, on every level. If you sign a guy who is putting the ball on the ground 60% of the time you need Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor behind you…and definitely not Tim Anderson.

E-Dub
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Eloy out until ~ASG is definitely non- optimal in aid of getting on track. Starting to wonder if he’s becoming a perennial injury magnet or if this is just a young player still acclimating to the rigors of MLB life. Hoping it’s the latter but fearing it’s the former.

LightenUpFGMember since 2018
4 years ago

This system is akin to getting a flat tire and finding out that there’s no spare in the trunk, so one just has to keep on driving in the hopes that the tire re-inflates itself a bit.

Last edited 4 years ago by JuuuustAnotherBaseballFan
richwp01Member since 2019
4 years ago
Reply to  LightenUpFG

But there is a patch and spray fill that are over 15 years old. Big gamble…

slamcactusMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  LightenUpFG

Eh, tough to complain when the cupboard’s bare for all the right reasons. Their PD seems to have been pretty darn good for several years now and they’ve had a good stretch of getting value from guys who don’t rank super high on prospect lists and getting darn near max-value out of their pitching talent.

Max Power
4 years ago

I just don’t think the “They graduated a lot of guys” is a great excuse, when there are a good number of teams with better MLB clubs and much better farm systems.

The way you describe their processes in pro scouting (aren’t proactive in adding depth), amateur scouting (they take the guys near where the scouting director lives, plus taking older prep players that the best-in-industry clubs shy away from), and international scouting (they wait for a Cuban to defect, otherwise they trade away pool space to get out of paying the buy-outs for Nate Jones/Wellington Castillo) paints a really negative picture. And you’re the one trying to be nice about it, the fans aren’t as forgiving.

gettwobrute79Member since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Max Power

Agreed. I think when you get to the top of the division like they did, it’s important to be sharp on the margins (adding depth) to help stay there. Especially since that shortcoming is magnified with the rash of injuries they currently have. It kinda gives off the vibe that “ok cool, we’re at the top of the division now, we’ll be here for five years because most other teams are rebuilding.” Well…the Twins and Tigers may be in various stages of rebuilding, but they’re a much more aggressive organization with a much better farm system.

Antonio BananasMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  gettwobrute79

And the Tigers are likely a contender after this year. Miggy comes off the books after next year so they have $30M (or more if they believe now is the time) to make a splash.

g4Member since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Max Power

Very solid points MP. The fact this franchise’s payroll has jumped by $70M in the blink of an eye is suggestive of its front office’s true (only?) intended path to improvement. Obviously ownership’s willingness to spend big is a good thing for Sox fans, but relying on outbidding the league for middle-tier free agents in perpetuity is a dangerous game. Reinsdorf is 86 years old and can’t take it with him so perhaps he firmly resides in two-middle-fingers-up territory from here on out. Knowing that for certain would lessen my concern.

OtterMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  Max Power

Because the Sox were/are in win-now, they already used up Vaughn and Crochet’s rookie eligibility. For most (all?) MLB teams, Vaughn would still be prospect eligible and I believe Crochet is the only pick from the 2020 draft who is no longer prospect eligible (though obviously he’s now getting TJ). Add those two to this list, and it looks a bit better, especially at the top.

Depth is an issue as you point out and that’s due in part to the teams curious international approach — though that has improved slightly in recent years — but still not nearly as strong as basically every other team not named Baltimore.

Demiurge
4 years ago
Reply to  Max Power

Couldn’t agree more. Their 40-man is good and fairly deep (though they leave a lot to be desired defensively), but nowhere near GREAT, and they should be if this is the state of their farm system. With a farm like this you should look more like the Braves who have an even better, younger roster and look to be good for years to come, giving them time to improve their farm during that contention window. This team could look downright mediocre in a year or two and I don’t see the farm improving enough to buttress it.

dl80Member since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Demiurge

The Braves managed to dupe two young players into underpaid and terrible contracts, respectively. That helps.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Max Power

I want to argue with this, but I think you’re right. It’s just so striking because they executed one of the most successful rebuilds in recent memory. But they did it almost entirely through scouting other teams’ farm systems. Moncada, Jimenez, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, and Lynn (indirectly via Dunning) came from just three trades. Abreu and Robert were signed as Cuban defectors. They signed some good free agents, but Vaughn and Aaron Bummer are the only guys who were drafted (or signed as an international teenager) who is good (Madrigal, potentially, but potentially not; also, he’s a Cub and AJ Pollock is hurt; maaaaybe Crochet).

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

To be fair, a lot of the draft stuff isn’t entirely the fault of the current guy heading up that department. The worst stuff happened earlier. In 2015 and 2016, the best players drafted were Seby Zavala, Zack Collins, Danny Mendick, and Jimmy Lambert, and they are way ahead of anyone else on those draft classes. And those guys are only big leaguers on a technicality.

The big issues are, as far as I can tell:
1) The Kath and Kelley picks became huge misses almost immediately (which does happen, but maybe not two years in a row).
2) Trading a lot of potentially useful players (Luis Gonzalez, Codi Heuer, Connor Pilkington, Nick Madrigal)
3) Garret Crochet is hurt (which happens, but also, most guys from his draft class have not come close to hitting the majors yet, so that actually looks like a success)

Max Power
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Luis Gonzalez wasn’t a trade, they put him on release waivers rather than putting him on the 60-day IL so they wouldn’t have to give an extra 1 player a league minimum salary. Which is…. uh….

gettwobrute79Member since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Calling a guy who was drafted less than a year ago a “huge miss” is, in fact, a take.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  gettwobrute79

I think we were all just wrong before. I thought he had a chance of being a Kyle Seager, Mike Lowell type guy before, and the tools he has do support that possibility still. But I don’t think there are any realistic comps for him anymore because it looks like a 20-grade hit tool, and guys like that don’t make it to the majors very often.

slamcactusMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Eh, they’re second round picks, and one’s battled shoulder problems.

Even if you consider their prospect status fully baked, I’d never judge an organization on the results of two second-round picks.

Max Power
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

What I’ll give the front office credit for: They are very good at picking the right players to sign to extensions, and getting those players to sign, both with this generation of players and the previous generation. They nailed the Sale, Eaton, and Quintana (even if Eloy is basically Mark Trumbo) trades. Ethan Katz seems like a very good pitching coach.

Abreu and Robert were consensus top international prospects, few doubted their ability. The White Sox had the relationships to get the deals done, to their credit, but that’s at the expense of getting deals done with good prospects from any other country. They are completely closed off from a Jose Altuve or Jose Ramirez type who signs for nothing and produces a ton of value. Vaughn was likewise a top draft prospect, no one doubted he could hit. You can’t say those aren’t wins, but it took very little special acumen relative to what other front offices routinely do.

It’s hard to find what else they are good at, other that timing this window well and spending more on payroll than the cheapest division in baseball.

OtterMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I think it’s a tad harsh since it’s a mix of a number of things. As I stated previously, Vaughn and Crochet would be on almost every teams prospect list but the Sox rushed them for win-now reasons (right or wrong).

They were also unlucky in that the rebuild occurred during two pretty poor drafts (16 and 17) AND the Sox never bottomed out to the point where they picked top 3 for a few years. The Sox highest pick during the rebuild was #3 in 2019 and while I like Vaughn, I like Rutschman and Witt a lot more and they go 1/2. The 2016 draft they flubbed (Collins) but that draft looks brutal right now. The 2017 draft they picked Burger, and while injuries derailed him, that also doesn’t appear to be a talent rich draft. They play it very safe in 2018 taking Madrigal, but even this draft isn’t crazy talent rich though obviously having Kelenic or Rodriguez approaching or on the MLB team would change things a bit.

The Sox have struggled to develop position players, though Anderson is probably one of the better success stories from a ‘raw tools’ to ‘All-Star short stop’ stories in the game. And they do seem to max out pitching.

I think were they should get the most scorn is their international spending and development, but they broke the bank for Robert and things have legitimately gotten better there in the last few years (evident of the list above, even if it is Cuban heavy, its a strategy that’s working).

The Sox haven’t gotten many late round picks to pop and turn into solid major leaguers other than Engle (now 30) and maybe Mendick (who is more of a AAAA player). The roster is an (imo impressive) collection of high end international signings or first round draft picks/over slot early round guys (Cease). Sure they aren’t the Dodgers (who is?) or the Rays (who would have traded Moncada/Anderson/Giolito etc in 4 for 1 deals years ago now), they’re more in line with the Brewers or Phillies (which is a much worse outcome) and I don’t think the Brewers would get much push back for having a poor system.

MikeSMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Yes, this. All the guys they acquired turned out well, but almost non of the high draft picks from the years they were bad have panned out. Some have been injured and some just haven’t developed, but it is shocking how little they have benefitted so far from all those high picks.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  MikeS

One thing that I keep coming back to is that most draft picks bust. In fact, most high draft picks bust. So it’s not entirely fair to say they got nothing out of it, without remembering that the baseline is so low. For example, the skeptic might note that Shane Baz, Jake Burger, and Nick Pratto were all picked directly after Jake Burger in 2017. But since the picks immediately before him were Austin Beck, Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, Keston Hiura, and Jo Adell, it’s a little more understandable. And while the fact that they got basically no one out of the 2015 and 2016 drafts is bad, that was also a long time ago.

All that said, having two high-profile second round picks (Kath and Kelley) that require such a dramatic reassessment so soon is not normal. With one, you chalk it up to bad luck. With two, it’s hard to rationalize it away. Maybe they should just stick to picking polished college guys from here on out.

MRDXolMember since 2021
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Jake Burger was drafted directly after Jake Burger?

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  MRDXol

Whoops, that should have been Trevor Rogers.

MikeSMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Sure, but this is a longstanding problem through several regimes going back decades after I was spoiled by consecutive years of Jack McDowell, Robin Ventura, Frank Thomas, and Alex Fernandez with other drafted players turning out good as well.

It is especially bad with position players. If you go back to 1990 after that run of successes ended and look at guys who were drafted and developed by the White Sox and went on to post 10 WAR over their career (with any team, they just had to be drafted by the White Sox and spend all their minor league career with them), you have Tim Anderson, Joe Crede, Aaron Rowand, and Mike Cameron. There might be one or two others I am forgetting, but it is a very short list. There were guys they drafted and traded away before they were fully developed and guys who were drafted elsewhere and acquired by them later, but they have been very poor at identifying guys and then developing those same guys for a very long time. I don’t know what kind of record other teams have if you apply the same criteria, but it has to be better than 4 guys in 30 years.

texag
4 years ago
Reply to  MikeS

cough*Marcus Semien*cough

Antonio BananasMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Honestly building through prospect trades seems faster. More data, closer to the bigs, etc.

It’s why Id like the Rule 5 to be anyone under 22 not on the 26 man roster. Rebuilds would take nowhere near as long.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago

This may actually be almost as good as the Angels’ system.

The bad: I think there are only single digit actual prospects in this system–the Top 4, and Norge Vera are the only players that definitely look like real prospects. Everyone else looks like an org guy or, if they’re lucky, the kind of player who hangs around on the 40-man until they run out of options and get DFA’d. Kath and Kelley, in particular, look so much worse than I remembered them. I just don’t see paths for them or Cespedes, Sean Burke and Dalquist are never going to throw strikes, Mendoza looks like he belongs down with Adolfo and Benyamin Bailey, etc.

The good: I’m way more convinced that Oscar Colas is a legitimate 45 after reading this. He’s only had 70 PAs in the minors and he had a long layoff but it sure seems like the scouting report backs him up making good quality contact. I think he looks like a possible 2-win right fielder, which isn’t a star but also is a guy who will be fine if you have to play him every day. I was also very skeptical on Colson Montgomery and Bryan Ramos, and I’m less so now. Both of them have high bust probability but there’s enough upside to keep an eye on them. Rodriguez looks like a possible solution at second base, and I still like Vera a lot, despite the risk involved with a pitcher that far away from the majors. That group is probably similar to the Detmers / Bachman / Paris / Ky Bush / Alejandro Hidalgo group from the Angels, although risk profile is totally different.

richwp01Member since 2019
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I think this organization has a lot of bust potential, and the “good” is definitely consolidated into a limited number. And based on previous draft/sign guys who have moved through this org, it feels almost every single one will “bust” while here. If a handful to hit, then it is not so bad. (One rotation SP out of Vera, Thompson, Dalquist, Burke, McDougal, Simas, Kelley, Mena; 1 actual 6th SP out of Lambert, McClure, Stiever, Bilous; 1 3B bat out of Ramos, Montgomery, Kath, Burger; and cheap 2B/UT depth in one or 2 of Rodriguez, Romy, Sosa, Yolbert,

The OF depth that used to be in this system in now consolidated into Colas and Cespedes. (Even with Adolfo, Rutherford, Basabe all still in the system,

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  richwp01

I think that Eric was grading a bit on a curve here. This looks more like a Top 20, and at least 10 of them are 35+’s. But…there’s enough in 5 or 6 other prospects that I think it’s not completely barren. Which is where I thought it was earlier.

mattMember since 2023
4 years ago

Bal: 375
TB: 362
Pitt: 326
Cleveland: 319.5
CHC: 271.5
AZ: 255.5
NYY: 253
SF: 248.5
Boston: 237.5
Det: 221
Min: 205
Cin: 194
Oak: 178.5
Tor: 148.5
Phi: 141
Mil: 137
Colorado: 112
LAA: 79
CHWS: 60.5

shortstoppin_Member since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  matt

Angels gang our day is here!!!!

eely225Member since 2019
4 years ago

Apologies for the pedantry, but the Bryan Ramos writeup includes the word “wreckless,” which I assume was supposed to be “reckless.”

Meg RowleyFanGraphs Staff
4 years ago
Reply to  eely225

As an editor, I appreciate both your pedantry and keen eye. Goof is fixed.

richwp01Member since 2019
4 years ago
Reply to  Meg Rowley

No way, his swings just do not cause wrecks, that is all.

Soxfan2
4 years ago

“This club is not very proactive on the margins and doesn’t scoop up players with workable traits who become freely available via waivers.” This to me is the biggest indictment of Hahn and his front office. Being able to identify talent, fix said talent and turn that talent into effective MLB players is something the Sox have been unable to do. I truly believe the Sox have the worst major league scouting department in baseball.

Not being able to do so coincides with $20M of their 2022 payroll being tied to the likes Josh Harrison, Leury Garcia, and Joe Kelly. While still having enormous holes at 2B and SP.

When you work for a team that will never be players at the top of the free agent market, you have to be privy on the margins. Hahn has shown no capabilities to do so.

Last edited 4 years ago by Soxfan2
j27roenick
4 years ago
Reply to  Soxfan2

That may be true, but at least he traded Semien and Tatis Jr. before they got too expensive. And then he (perhaps forcibly) hired a manager willing to do the dirty work no one before dreamed of doing, which was bat Leury Garcia in the No. 3 spot in the order. That probably isn’t possible without giving Semien and Tatis Jr. away for basically nothing.

slamcactusMember since 2020
4 years ago

Interesting to see Ramos described as a free/erratic swinger given his decent walk rates up to this year. If it’s an issue I wonder if he’ll need to move up before there’s any chance of addressing it. Tough to tell a guy his approach is a problem while he’s hitting .418 with power.

richwp01Member since 2019
4 years ago
Reply to  slamcactus

Cespedes was Successful in A+ and AA, but did not play well in AZFL. But I agree. Hell, Adolfo hit well in AA/AAA last year

Max Power
4 years ago
Reply to  richwp01

I think Adolfo’s value is summed up by the fact that 29 teams passed on claiming him. Same with Rutherford.

MikeSMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Max Power

Yeah, I really don’t get how anybody could be on the Adolfo bandwagon when 30 GM’s decided he wasn’t worth a 40 man roster spot when they could have had him for free.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  richwp01

Cespedes swings at everything. I realize that the White Sox have had surprising success with this archetype but it is not wise to bet on it.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
4 years ago

The write up for Ramos sounds better than a 45 and his Top 20 ZiPs status makes him sound a lot better than a number of 50s. A toolsy guy with performance is about all one can ask for. If I hadn’t seen the 45 I’d have guessed more like 55. It seems like he’s being penalized for weirdness.

texag
4 years ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

I don’t believe this was the intent but the write-up for Ramos gave me the impression that there was a preconceived notion that Ramos had plate discipline issues and even though the numbers don’t fully support it, he was docked for it anyways. I think it’s kind of hard to tell at his current level if he has those issues or not because the pitchers just aren’t advanced enough to consistently take advantage of holes in batters’ swings.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  texag

Ya it sounds that way

slamcactusMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  texag

A non-miniscule walk rate in the low-minors doesn’t mean a prospect isn’t a free-swinger and/or doesn’t make bad swing decisions. This is where scouting looks tell you a lot more than just looking at a guy’s BB/K. Hitting involves a lot more events that don’t create a measurable result (i.e., results on pitches that don’t end a plate appearance) than ones that do, and awful hacks that take a player to a 1 or 2-strike count don’t get recorded in a statline. IOW, unless other evaluators are saying things directly contradicting it, I’m more inclined to credit the writeup here than to reject it because dude had a BB% over 10 last year.

Max Power
4 years ago
Reply to  texag

Agreed with slamcactus. Also, Low-A pitchers aren’t known for throwing tons of strikes, especially to physically maxed-out dudes, so you don’t have to have a great approach to walk a decent amount

richwp01Member since 2019
4 years ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

The write-up is much more important than the grades to me. I think the 45+ FV is just baking in more bust potential.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  richwp01

The write-up doesn’t specify the reason for unusual bust potential other than weird swing selection.

MRDXolMember since 2021
4 years ago

Small editing note: Kelley’s blurb has a reference to “what he looked like in college”, I believe he was drafted outta HS?

MRDXolMember since 2021
4 years ago

Simas is the son of former MLB reliever Bill Simas, I believe. He’s blowing away low-A hitters so far, I imagine he’ll get promoted soon.

Perez has shown a lot more pop on paper last year and now this year as well than he has in the past. He’s struck out just once in 71 PA. I think third catcher might be light, that much contact with even just 40 pop and good receiving sounds like at least a backup C, maybe low-end regular C?

markakis21
4 years ago

I’m not sure I like the “they graduated the core” excuse. I know their farm wasn’t going to reach the levels it was at when they were making a bunch of selloff trades, but to be last in baseball is still an indictment of the front office. Every team graduates prospects, and sure they can’t re-stock with trades, but their drafting and development has sucked of late.