Chris Young Is Not A Minor League Pitcher
A victim of what amounts to one of the deeper stables of starting pitching, Chris Young opted out of his contract with the Washington Nationals with the hopes that he could find a major league role in another city. The Nationals could ostensibly retain Young’s services should he fail in that pursuit, but it’s plausible that there will be several organizations interested.
Young, 33, is not so young anymore. The hulking 6-foot-10 right hander has had two shoulder surgeries in the last four seasons, limiting his major league innings from 2009 through 2011 to just 120. His 2012 comeback was a mixed bag, as he posted a 4.50 FIP, a 16.2% strikeout rate, and the characteristic high fly ball rate, flirting with 60%. His fastball has been in steady decline since he broke into the league in 2004, averaging just 84.6 mph in 2012 and almost all reports out of Spring suggested he was sitting in the 80-82 mph range frequently.
What’s remarkable is his ability to get by with a batting practice four seamer when he uses it over 70% of the time. And he’s done it for years, which is perhaps why his velocity really isn’t much of an issue. With his stature, Young’s biggest asset is deception as hitters presumably have a difficult time with his arm angle and/or release point. In 2007, Young was only throwing 88 mph and managed to produce a 24% strikeout rate and a 3.43 FIP. If Young can move the ball effectively and hit his spots, his slider has historically been an effective complement. And for the most part, that’s the Chris Young scouts saw this spring.
In 16 innings pitched this spring, Young posted a 2.25 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, striking out nine opposing batters, allowing just 11 hits. Sure, it’s not much of a sample to go off of, but you can understand why Young thinks he’s better than AAA at this point in his career — and with his history of injuries, perhaps he doesn’t want to waste any good innings left in his shoulder throwing at kids in Syracuse.
Who might be interested? A reunion with the Mets could make sense. The news on Shaun Marcum seems to get worse by the day. Johan Santana won’t be ready for two months and when he returns it’s unknown if he’ll be the Santana from the first half when he posted a respectable 3.65 FIP or the one who fell apart and couldn’t stay healthy in the second. Their fall back option appears to be Jeremy Hefner, who is certainly capable, but profiles as kind of a prototypical low-strikeout, pitch to contact kind of fifth starter. They could look to uber prospect Zack Wheeler but it seems like the club prefers to let him get a little more experience in the minors. If Marcum misses significant time, Young could provide a stop-gap until his return and based on his results, they could decide between him and Hefner going forward.
Another reunion might make sense with the San Diego Padres. Obviously, the park in San Diego agrees with Young’s fly ball ways as he had his best years there. The Padres lost Casey Kelly for the season, they recently released Freddy Garcia, and Cory Luebke won’t be back from surgery until mid-season. The shine on Eric Stults might be wearing off as he’s looked a lot more like what xFIP thought of him the last two seasons this spring. His low BABIP and HR/FB rate produced a tidy 2.92 ERA, but xFIP thought it looked more like 4.44. So far he’s pitched to a 6.63 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over 19 innings, giving up 22 hits, three home runs, and striking out just six batters. Right now, the Padre rotation appears to be Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Jason Marquis, and then a mix of Stults, Tyson Ross, and Andrew Cashner. Beyond Cashner, Young could provide an upgrade, if only until Cory Luebke returns.
The Pittsburgh Pirates might kick the tires with news of Jeff Karstens shoulder woes. They just named their own reclamation project as their #4 starter in Jonathan Sanchez and the remaining slot will go to Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, or Jeanmar Gomez. Another option could be the Texas Rangers as they’re discovering Derek Lowe still isn’t very good anymore and Nick Tepesch has been lit up this spring. And Young went to High School in Texas, so there’s that.
If Young is going to find a job on a major league roster, it’s probably going to be in the next couple of days, so this will be ironed out pretty quickly. For a pitcher with a low-80’s fastball, a staggeringly low ground ball rate , and a history of significant arm injuries, it’s kind of impressive that he’s around at all. Perhaps even more amazing is that he can probably help someone win games.
Michael was born in Massachusetts and grew up in the Seattle area but had nothing to do with the Heathcliff Slocumb trade although Boston fans are welcome to thank him. You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr.
You buried the lede in this story, which is: Jason Marquis is still in baseball? And has a position in an ML team’s starting rotation? That ISN’T as the #5 guy? What?!?
Pirates make the most sense to me of the teams mentioned. Young seems best as a lottery ticket, as opposed to someone you could count on to fill in for someone else who got injured. Mets are always up to stupid things, though.
Chris Young: An absolute embarrassment to pitching efficiency. When Jamie Moyer at your age threw harder than you are, something is wrong.
The Mets Broadcast used to theorize that because of Young’s 6’10” frame, he was able to make his release point much closer to home plate then your average pitcher would and because it had less distance to travel, it would make 85mph visually seem more like 88-89 mph.
The tall thing didn’t pass examination over at SABR: http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter
I believe somebody did a study on pitchers and which of them were closest to the plate upon the release of the ball and Chris Young certainly was at (or near) the top of the list and completely maximized his length. If memory serves.
If you are throwing 82 MPH but releasing the ball a foot to a foot and a half closer than a guy throwing 94, that has to make up some of the difference, no?
For every foot closer to the plate, it is perceived as 2 mph faster. I saw that on Sports Science, which uses dubious methods. So it wouldn’t make that big of a difference. He does have deception in his delivery though which helps.
Made up a little spread sheet on this for myself and it seems to come out at to ~1.6-1.7mph per foot closer at release. Assuming typical stride length relative to height, 8in of height will result in a release point ~6in closer and therefore “perceived” as ~0.8mph faster.
It’s not a big difference, but can be hypothetically relevant. His deception certainly helps more, methinks.
As a fair criticism, that study investigated completely different phenomena. It looked at the durability and overall effectiveness of pitchers relative to height, not the more isolated phenomena of “perceived mph” (iow: travel time from release to plate).
Jeff Locke just named #5 for Pirates. So they’re apparently out.
Rangers would be yet another possible reunion, since that is where Chris Young started his career. And saying he went to HS in TX doesn’t mean much given the size of the state. It would be more informative to note that he is from Dallas (Highland Park).
The idea of Chris Young to the Rangers makes sense in that Texas wouldn’t need to be so concerned about his health. Rangers would just need him to make approximately 8 starts until Colby Lewis returns. However, it seems that the club is dedicated to Tepesch in that fifth spot.