Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

The Cincinnati Reds pummeled the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley yesterday afternoon, bopping seven home runs while taking the game fourteen to three. Aside from Brandon Phillips and Jonny Gomes, the Reds’ hitters going deep weren’t the usual suspects. Drew Stubbs trotted around the bases three times. Paul Janish knocked one out, having been thrown into the game following Joey Votto’s first inning ejection. Backup backstop Corky Miller, called into action after Ramon Hernandez came out with a sore knee, used the power of the Fu Manchu to crank one out of the park.

The victory brings Cincinnati’s record to 47-36, 1.5 games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. CoolStandings.com gives Cincy nearly a two-thirds chance of making the playoffs. How have the Reds managed to stave off the Red Birds to this point? The club’s defense has been decent, ranking sixth in the NL in Ultimate Zone Rating. Cincy’s starting pitchers place ahead of only the Diamondbacks and Pirates in terms of xFIP, while the bullpen places seventh in xFIP and 12th in Win Probability Added. The Reds’ success isn’t fueled by pitching and defense. Rather, it’s the bats that are keeping the team in the playoff hunt.

Collectively, the Reds have an NL-best .347 wOBA. Granted, Great American Ballpark is a strong hitter’s venue. But even accounting for that, Cincinnati trails just the Milwaukee Brewers in Park Adjusted Batting Runs — Reds batters have been +43.2 runs above average, compared to +46.3 for the Brew Crew.

While Orlando Cabrera (71 wRC+) is making oodles of outs near the top of the lineup, the Reds feature league average or better offensive production at every other position on the field. Ramon Hernandez has a 109 wRC+. Joey Votto is raking to the tune of a 163 wRC+, and Brandon Phillips has a 127 wRC+. Scott Rolen (146 wRC+) has cast aside shoulder problems and is showing power not seen in over half a decade. In the outfield, Drew Stubbs rates as exactly average (100 wRC+), while Jonny Gomes (115 wRC+) and Jay Bruce (118 wRC+) come in well above that mark.

The question now becomes, can the Reds keep crushing the ball? Here are the current wOBA totals for Cincy’s hitters, as well as their rest-of-season ZiPS projections:

Those rest-of-season forecasts suggest it’s going to be hard to the Reds to keep putting crooked numbers on the scoreboard so frequently — seven out of the eight current starters are predicted to show decline at the dish. CHONE’s R.O.S. projections also show a downturn for most Cincinnati hitters, though the system is more bullish on Bruce’s bat:

Perhaps the rotation will get a shot in the arm with the return of Edinson Volquez and the ‘pen will get the power fastball of Aroldis Chapman, but it’s likely that the lineup won’t be as prolific in the second half.