Cleveland Signs Edwin Encarnacion
Cleveland came so, so, so close to the World Series crown just a couple months ago. It probably doesn’t hurt the way it hurt Red Sox fans in 1986, since they didn’t lose in the worst way imaginable, but it probably stings pretty hard, even now. Cleveland fans have likely buoyed themselves with the thought that with Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar back at full strength, and with a whole season of Andrew Miller, 2017 could bring a return trip. Bring the boys back and win it the second time around, the same way their American League Central brethren, the Kansas City Royals, did before them.
Can it all be so simple? Of course not. It never is, and you could point to Mike Napoli as evidence of this. While the former catcher did bash 34 homers, his season took a frightening turn for the worse following a make-up game against the Red Sox on Aug. 15. Over his next 17 games, he tallied nary an extra-base hit, and even when he broke that streak, the jolly, bearded man wasn’t quite as jolly.
| Dates | PA | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/5 – 8/15 | 470 | 0.266 | 0.351 | 0.530 |
| 8/16 – 11/2 | 231 | 0.163 | 0.277 | 0.281 |
So, Cleveland knew that they couldn’t just roll out the same club again. They didn’t tender Napoli a qualifying offer. At that point though, the other half of their first base/designated hitter combo seemed like one of those Twitter memes. Step 1: Cut Napoli. Step 2: ??? Step 3: Profit! Well, the profit did indeed come, because the market for Edwin Encarnacion cratered just enough for Cleveland to step into the void and give their fans a very merry Christmas (or whichever holiday they celebrate).
Source: Edwin Encarnacion's deal is actually $65M guaranteed. The $5M option buyout is on top of $20M a year he's getting for three years.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 23, 2016
This deal has to be considered a bit of a surprise. It’s not too far off in terms of average annual value from what we all expected, but it’s a year light. Let’s go back to our crowdsourcing widget from Dave’s top 50 free agents piece.
| Type | Years | AAV | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Cameron | 4 | $21.0 M | $84.0 M |
| Avg Crowdsource | 4 | $21.4 M | $90.4 M |
| Median Crowdsource | 4 | $22.0 M | $88.0 M |
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 630 | 12.2% | 18.7% | .256 | .351 | .493 | .360 | 125 | 18.0 | -15.8 | 2.4 |
As you can see, Encarnacion could most of what we thought his value would be, but he now has to earn it in the first three years of the deal. Three years, $65 million is a $21.667 AAV, which is as close to the average crowdsource AAV as possible, but the lack of the extra year makes it extremely beneficial for Cleveland. It gives them the peace of mind that they didn’t get with either the Nick Swisher contract or the Michael Bourn contract.
Both of those deals were four years plus a club option. At three years plus an option, Cleveland is paying more per year, and that’s OK. Everyone who saw how those two deals play out is just fine with that trade-off. Year four for both of them was supposed to be 2016, and neither suited with Cleveland for even an inning of a major league game. I’m not a very smart person, but I’d hazard that there is a connection here.
So what does this mean for Cleveland in 2017? It means that as of this moment, Cleveland is FanGraphs’ best projected AL team. Signing Encarnacion squeaks them past Boston for the top spot. After Cleveland and Boston, there is a small gap before you get to Houston, and then from there a bigger gap to New York, Anaheim and the rest of the circuit. What I’m saying — Cleveland is now very clearly the cream of the crop. On paper, anyway. But hey, Jeff already thought we might not have any division races next season, and the Encarnacion signing only pushes us closer to that outcome.
It means Cleveland has shored up its lone major weakness. Yeah, they could use some reinforcements in the outfield perhaps, at least until the time when it’s crystal clear that Michael Brantley is 100 percent (keep in mind that time may never come). But they were looking at a first base/DH situation where they were basically going to put a fake mustache on Carlos Santana and see if the other team would notice as he hit in both slots. (Maybe if he hit from the left one time and the right the other time?) Jesus Aguilar, the 26-year-old first baseman with all of 64 major league plate appearances under his belt, was not a viable plan. Eric Longenhagen noted in his Cleveland top prospects report that “lots of scouts think he’s a Quad-A hitter.” When you run only a .319 OBP in your third season at Triple-A, it’s going to be tough to refute that report. And Aguilar was the best of the team’s in-house options before tonight.
Now, Cleveland doesn’t have to sweat it. In Encarnacion, they basically have Carlos Santana plus power. Encarnacion is as consistent as they come. For four straight years from 2012-2015, he posted between a 146-151 wRC+. Last year, he dropped down to a 134 wRC+, which is still plenty good. It was still 18th-best in the majors among qualified hitters. Steamer isn’t quite as bullish on him this season, but what the system projects him for would be an upgrade over what Napoli gave Cleveland in 2016 — a 125 wRC+ for Encarnacion vs. 113 for Napoli. Barring something completely unforeseen, this looks like a big win for Cleveland.
Yes, they need Brantley. And yes, it’d be great if they could somehow improve on the Lonnie Chisenhall/Tyler Naquin/Brandon Guyer trifecta, but they’re all pretty decent. Now, with Edwin Encarnacion in the fold, Cleveland might not have a superstar at every position, but they have them at a couple, and they have no holes. That’s a beautiful thing. Limber up your arms for those parrot perches, Cleveland fans, because the last piece of the puzzle just rode in on a sleigh.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Yes
Congratulations to Cleveland fans!
80 >>> 65
this looks bad on the jays.
My gut is they convince Bautista to come back on a pillow deal. Timing seems to be right for both sides
You mean the same Jays that offered him a better deal than this one but his unqualified agent grossly misread the market? The same agent that, instead of coming back to Toronto to try and make it work, he went to the media and tried to use them to drum up sympathetic support towards a player instead of a ball club?
Honestly, it’s on Kinzler here. Shapiro and Atkins are very smart men with a very direct, clear cut and straightforward business process. You don’t come to a mans house and act like a self-important child. The agent can read the market as well as the Jays GM can, but only one of the acted upon that market in an appropriate manner.
How can you blame the agent? Encarnacion has worked hard his whole life to be in a position to have several teams throw money at him. He wanted to test the market to see if a team would offer him the 5 yr 100+ mill deal he was looking for. The Blue Jays offered the 4 yr 80 mill deal and Encarnacion wanted to see if he can do better. It’s not like Encarnacion wanted to sign the contract and his agent overruled him. Encarnacion still has the ability to make the 4 yr 80 mill with the Indians anyway, except now he’s on a better team.
Except apparently Encarnacion really wanted to stay with Toronto, so taking a worse deal from a different team is bad in every respect.
Maybe it is Shapiro’s fault for falling over himself in a rush to sign Kendrys Morales? Perhaps Kinsler misread the market a bit, but how many agents out there would advise a client like Encarnacion, a premier hitter in market not exactly chock full of them, to take Toronto’s initial offer right at the start of free agency? You or anyone else would lying if you say that you knew his market would collapse.
He’s a DH heading into his age 34 season. It didn’t take anything extraordinary for his market to shrink. I don’t blame the agent for wanting to wait until he could negotiate with more teams, but it was his responsibility to read the market as quickly as possible. By stringing things out and hoping that someone would get desperate, he cost Encarnacion money and his team of preference.
this is an egg on the face of the jays. they allowed their franchise player to walk, and reallocated the money to kendrys morales, steve pearce, and justin smoak(he of negative war). If they had simply waited, they clearly could have stuck to their original offer and signed Encarnacion. Instead, they rushed to sign an equally old, less productive, more of a defensive liability in Morales. It’s always going to look bad that they offered more, but couldn’t wait to get there guy back. if they had waited, they could have even offered 3/65 with an option for the fourth year as well.
“They allowed their franchise player to walk”
I didn’t realize Donaldson was signed by Cleveland.
Right, Donaldson won’t sign somewhere else until next year.
How do you propose that Donaldson will break his contract a year early?
i apologize, i meant one of their franchise players.
bull, Edwin had the right to find out his value, the jays had all year to negotiate, they chose not to. then the jas pulled the offer before other teams could talk to him
this was all on Shapiro and atkins, playing a game of my way or the highway
Why should the Jays ALLOW EE to shop their offer?
I signed in just to reply to you.
If you followed this year at all you would know that Edwin gave the team a deadline for the end of Spring Training to negotiate, at which point he would not negotiate again until becoming a free agent.
So no, they did not have all year to negotiate.
I’ll definitely take the over on his 2016 steamer projection:
4.3, 4.0, 3.6, 4.5, 3.9 WAR 2012-2016 and then projected for 2.4? My mental Marcel approximation is definitely north of 3 based on those numbers even if he is going on 34.
*2017…..I’ll get the year right on projected performance during the offseason some day…..
The past 48 hours is about as exciting as free agency gets for an A’s fan.
I laughed out loud.
I think it’s about time those 1B/DH defensive numbers get revised, or at least, looked into a bit more carefully. -16 runs really seems excessive
IIRC, ZiPS is a little lighter on 1B/DH and ZiPS has him at 3.1, 2.7, and 2.1 for the life of the deal. That’s ~$65M but also wonder if it’s worth the risk.
3/$75M ($65M + $10M for the pick we’ll say) means Indians expect ~9 wins from him over the next 3 years. That’s somewhat reasonable (projected for 2.4 next year) but not sure I’d be willing to bet $75M on it given his age and moving to a little less friendly park.
FWIW you are right Rogers is typically a more hitter friendly park, but not in 2016. The Indians actually have been renovating the field which could have had an impact? Who knows whether it’s sustainable.
Link for proof.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
I’d guess that what they’re really looking for is 3 wins in a championship push year next year, and everything else is gravy.
The contract is not actually $65 million. From MLBTradeRumors:
“FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the deal is $60MM, not $65MM, over the three-year term of the contract. Encarnacion’s club option is worth $25MM and comes with a $5MM buyout, meaning his deal can max out at $80MM, per Rosenthal.”
The buyout means it’s either 3/$65M or 4/$85M. I think we are all going under the assumption that the Indians are going to not pay EE $25M for his age 37 season.
Ah, right. Apparently I haven’t done enough basic math lately.
Don’t let this distract you from the fact the Indians blew a 3-1 lead.
Wait a minute, is the popular opinion that Edwin runs with the parrot on his upper arm!?! The GIF clearly shows a parrot at Edwin’s bicep or even shoulder. I always envisioned the parrot perched on his forearm/wrist area like a falconer. My mind is blown.
Oh, also, I think this is a nice move for Cleveland.
Thank you, Steex. A parrot can perch on any player’s shoulder; it’s the forearm that adds to EE’s value as a trotter.
Falconry impersonation is an underrated part of EE’s game.
“As you can see, Encarnacion could most of what we thought his value would be, but he now has to earn it in the first three years of the deal.”
I read this a lot of times and have no clue what it means.
Where’s that guy who runs sentences through Google translate in Serbian then Russian then Sanskrit?
I think Paul forgot to put the word “earn” between the words “could” and “most”.
That’s correct, jpg, my fault. Also, please know that I’ve always liked you better than your cousins png, tiff and eps.
What about gif?
Sorry. But gif is cuter and more animated. A life of the party type.
But she’s sooo short…
this is an egg on the face of the jays. they allowed their franchise player to walk, and reallocated the money to kendrys morales, steve pearce, and justin smoak(he of negative war). If they had simply waited, they clearly could have stuck to their original offer and signed Encarnacion. Instead, they rushed to sign an equally old, less productive, more of a defensive liability in Morales, and more of a liability on the basepaths. It’s always going to look bad that they offered more, but couldn’t wait to get there guy back. if they had waited, they could have even offered 3/65 with an option for the fourth year as well.
Getting Brantley back is important for Cleveland, but so is getting Gomes back healthy and swinging they way he did pre-injury. Perez is a decent enough hitter when healthy and tuned in but prime Gomes was one of the better catchers in the game.
They still need CF help (Davis redux, most likely) but they do look pretty solid:
1B Santana
2B Kipnis
SS Lindor
DH Encarnacion
LF Brantley/Colabello
3B Ramirez
C Gomes/Perez
RF Chisenhall/Guyer
CF ???
I’m wondering how well Erik Gonzales can play CF.
The off-season isn’t done but that’s not a bad lineup. Decent floor, good upside. Factor in their pitching and they just might be able to fend off the Tigers and Royals.
Now to see how it works out where it matters, between the lines.
Gomes had a flukey good year and a half where an elevated BABIP that is unsustainable for a catcher and great defense carried him to a good (not great) season and a half. The middling power is still there but his plate discipline has always been terrible. His 2015 is what you ought to expect, barring help from the BABIP gods. They were foolish to let him keep them from getting Lucroy.
Naquin will play center, I assume.
(a) They DID get Lucroy, or at least they agreed to terms with Milwaukee to get Lucroy. Nothing about Gomes held them back. The trade fell through either because Lucroy changed the terms of Milwaukee/Cleveland’s deal, or because Cleveland could not convince Lucroy to waive a clause that he rightfully bargained for, whichever description strikes your whimsy. In either case, a commitment to Gomes entered their thought process at no point. The tradeoff wasn’t Gomes versus Lucroy, it was Encarnacion vs. Lucroy.
(b) Gomes’s BABIP had been elevated his entire career even prior to 2013. It’s been reasonable to expect he’s not as good as 2013-14. Reasonable now -NOW- to suspect he’s not average or above average. But prior to 2016, it relied on the assumption that K/BB was perfectly sticky, and that BABIP is perfectly noisy – or that his BABIP was premised on unexploited GB pull tendencies. The former argument is outright mistaken, but the latter is reasonable; that said, I saw very few actually make it prior to 2015/16.
Nope. They told Lucroy that Gomes would be the catcher next year, with Lucroy at 1b/DH. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/jonathan-lucroy-explains-veto-of-indians-trade.html
This is from Lucroy.
The Indians FO came out and said that they never had any contact with him. FWIW I trust the Indians front office on this one.
http://www.letsgotribe.com/2016/8/3/12369388/mike-chernoff-claims-cleveland-indians-front-office-never-talked-to
Go get Billy Hamilton? Plug in a cheap 2.5-3.0 WAR in CF and that’s a pretty darn good lineup.
The perfect cf match right now is Dyson.
No way they get him without divine (or Billy Beane) intervention. A speedy defense-first lefty CF on a 1 year deal. Pair him with Rajai Davis and they’d be good to go.
I doubt Colabello makes the team. Instead we’ll likely see Guyer platoon in both corners and Almonte spend some time in center with Naquin if the Tribe doesn’t pick up a better CF option.
I’m still thinking that Colby Rasmus makes too much sense for them to pass on given their history of signing fixer-uppers for a year and hoping for a bounce back. Another option could be Pagan to platoon with Naquin in LF with Almonte in CF. Both of those guys just make so much sense for this team that one of them will probably be brought on board. Of course, I was saying that about Napoli for years before they gave him a one year bounce back deal that worked out perfectly.
I surely hope they get a better option for CF.
Unlike last year when lf and 3b were unsettled, this year 3b is settled and has a decent bat so there is no need to put up with bad defense in center just for the offense (which may or not be real).
Get a fast CF and if Brantley isn’t back, then you play Naquin… in left.
Problem is that there aren’t many good CF options out there. The best of the bunch are guys like Rajai Davis, Colby Rasmus, and Austin Jackson. Maybe you roll the dice on a guy like Blanco, Bourjos, or Revere, but there really isn’t anything inspiring out there.
As for a trade, I wonder if they would be willing to part with top prospects to land a decent CF with a couple of years of control left after giving up their first rounder. McCutchen might be an option, but it seems like Pittsburgh is hesitant to deal him, and Blackmon is interesting, but it seems his asking price is way too high right now.
Which is why I was wondering about Gonzalez.
Theoretically they still have enough good prospects left for one more big trade but the CF need isn’t *that* big (equally theoretically). Odds are they will go for one of those low-end veteran options to keep the job open for Zimmer or Allen long term.
But if the right deal shows up…?
The big need there (as of December) is the glove. Who knows how things shape up in March?
I like the idea of a highly competitive Indian team, and this is a very good signing. As to the previous negotiations (or non-negotiations) with Toronto, we don’t know all the ins and outs. It’s pretty clear that EE’s agent thought there would be a deeper market, and that was the general consensus at the time, so the rejection of Toronto’s first, and only offer was to have been expected. It’s a reasonable guess that Toronto threw it out as a win-win for themselves: Either they would get EE at their price (low probability) or they would quickly move on and get the draft pick. I doubt they ever seriously intended to bargain with EE on any material point, or wait for him. You don’t move to such obviously inferior choices that quickly without intending to in the first place.
Will it be a win for Toronto? I wouldn’t have wasted a dime on Smoak and Morales. Pearce is useful. But what’s really interesting is that none of the 3 are particularly young–it’s not like Toronto is buying potential there. They are just filling holes.
The Jays aren’t a terribly young team.
Their average age is at or near the top so their window might actually close after 2017/18.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rosters/_/sort/average_age/order/true
Making big long term commitments to older players wouldn’t make business sense if they think they’ll be rebuilding/retooling by 2019. Filling holes fits that timetable.
Besides, park effects included, Morales might not be much of a downgrade from Encarnacion. At half the cost. Those extra $30M will come in handy to keep Donaldson around.
Also, remember this:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2017-free-agent-landmines/
Cleveland can afford a land mine because their core is younger, they have less holes to plug, and no big Free Agent losses coming before 2020. Can Toronto say the same?
Baseball is still a business.
I like what the Jays are doing. They are being frugal with older players who would return a draft pick. Basically they are extracting $10M of value from each person they don’t sign. Unless you are near favorites to win the division, this is smart baseball management. Sign shorter term deals until your window is open wider.
2017 – Punt, but appear competitive by signing short term deals+ Start improving minor league system
2018 – Lose Upton, Estrada, Liriano. Good starting pitching in free agency. If competitive, resign Donaldson and see what you’ve got. If not, trade Donaldson to accelerate rebuild.
They can’t sign aging sluggers this year when the 2018 is the pivotal point where they can really put their money to use and decide whether to really ramp up the minor league system (ala Cubs) or spend money to ramp up competitiveness (ala Red Sox) based on the development of the younger guys.
Small market philosophy in a big market club will not go over well with fans.
You’re right, but I bet ownership loves it.
will they love going back to half empty stands?
To them the stands will be half full.
Theo did ok in Chicago
IMO this is the exact mentality that keep the big market teams from consistent dominance
Don’t forget, Rogers is paying in Canadian Pesos (74 cent dollars) so, with a 1.36 exchange rate, they have to be smarter with their money. Signing Kendrys wasn’t a bad idea, a similar player at half the cost. The Jays got good mileage out of EE and JB, on contracts that were relatively cheap. But, older players do not get healthier, they get more fragile, and both have been bitten by the injury bug. That’s a risk the Jays can’t take for a top dollar player. And they weren’t going to sit around letting the secondary players get signed away, risking out missing EE as well. Even JD has been a bit brittle, but that’s his all-out style of play.
Yes, the Jays may not be as good, but either Rogers changes direction from their longterm strategy (unlikely), Shapiro performs miracles and channels his inner Billy Beane, or its back to the days of futility, and Aaron Sanchez is Roy Halladay redux.
back to back ALCS is no time to punt.
and punting doesn’t help them build their system anyways.
maybe in 6 or 7yrs shapkins will build a team as good as the one they inherited. if they’re lucky.
They can be competitive in 2017 and see how july shapes up.
The Sox could still stumble. Panda might be done, Hanley’s bat might go down again, pitchers get hurt, bullpen underperforms.
It’s baseball.
Stuff happens.
Teams “win” december and lose the season regularly.
Conversely, small winter moves can pay off big in the summer.
Damn I miss Anthopolous.
Speaking of offensive dry slumps, Jays went through same thing vs Cleveland as Cleveland did with Cubs. I love EE, but a steady diet of down-away FB and CU will baffle him.
If they put a mustache on Carlos Santana, will he play the guitar, too?
I would hate that Jays run to end but wouldn’t it maybe better to sell off and rebuild? If they trade away stroman, JD, sanchez, pillar and Osuna they immediately have a top 3 farm system (8 to 10 top100 guys) and compete again in 2 to 3 years.
If they wait they might get another playoff appearance if everything goes right but they could also end up like the Phillies in 2012: old, overpaid, no farm system and facing at least a 6 year rebuild (Phillies have improved but are still at least two seasons away from competing again).
I would probably give it another try in 2017 because there might be another chance (and the AL WC teams arent great anyway and the trade market right now might be a little saturated due to the Sox sell-off) and if you are out of it at the deadline I would really sell off and start all over again.
The Jays management is in a very tricky position because of how fickle Toronto fans are for anything that isn’t hockey. The buzz around baseball in Toronto is huge right now especially with the Leafs in the middle of a long term rebuild and Jays attendance has gone from 17th to 8th to 3rd over the last 3 years.
Shapiro might be able to sell the fans on a 2-3 year “reload” by trading existing talent, but it could just as easily cause a massive backlash with attendance going back to 20-25K a game and staying there until they reach or win the World Series.
They have no reason to trade Sanchez, Stroman, and Osuna. None of them make big money and are all several years away from free agency, not to mention that the Jays have financial capability to extend them all.
Dealing Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna would be career suicide for Shapiro.
I laughed out loud twice, Santana with a fake m(o)ustache and the gif with the parrot. If only he’d signed with the Pirates for even more parrot gags.