Cole Hamels, Now Even More Complete
Now may be a weird time to write a glowing report about Cole Hamels. He’s fresh off a bad couple starts, and by ERA and WHIP, the Phillie lefty is having his worst season since 2009. On the other hand, his arsenal has never been more complete. Seen through at least this one lens, at least, Hamels is an ace in his prime. There might not be a better time to write that sort of post, at least.
When Hamels came into the league, he had a great changeup and command of a decent fastball for a lefty, but he struggled with a breaking ball. That led to a weird sort of reverse platoon split — he gave up home runs to lefties. The change was a lesser weapon against same-handed hitters, and the curve was inconsistent. He was good, but he wasn’t Peak Hamels, not yet, not with all those homers.
The first solution? A cutter.
In 2010, Hamels started throwing an 89 mph pitch that bored in on the hands of lefties slightly, and the results were almost immediate.
Before the cutter, Hamels gave up homers on 4% of his plate appearances against lefties. After he started throwing it, he’s done so 2% of the time.
So then Hamels went nuts on the league, at least for two years. He was top five in strikeouts minus walks, top ten in WAR, top ten in ERA — he was an ace by any definition in 2011 and 2012.
Nor was 2013 a bad year, either. By WAR — and really by most measures other than ERA — he was just about the same pitcher. But maybe that 3.60 ERA didn’t sit so well with Hamels, because he went to work that year, this time on a new pitch. Well, an old pitch that has become new.
That curve, which he used a career-low 7% of the time in 2013? That curve, which gave him platoon issues early in his career? That curve, which hovered between mediocre and below-average early in his career? It’s not the same any more. It’s great now.
Let’s look at it in pictures first. On the left, an early 2013 curveball at 75 mph. On the right, one from this season — 80 mph.
The comparison is a bit unfair, given the locations of the pitches, but the one on the left is slower, with less bite, than the one on the right. The movement and velocity have both changed. Let’s index his curve velocity and horizontal and vertical movement to career averages so that we can put them on the same graph.
Hamels is now throwing the hardest, droppiest curve he’s ever thrown. And we know that harder curves with more drop get more whiffs. So it’s no surprise that his whiff rate on the pitch right now (19.7%) is almost double his career rate (10.7%).
What may be surprising is how this arsenal now fits in with the other great pitchers of the game right now. For example, Hamels now has the best whiff rate on a curveball thrown at least 200 times this year… save for Clayton Kershaw’s 19.71%. And right now, even if you relax that threshold down to 100 times, here are the other starting pitchers that have two non-fastballs that are both in the top ten by whiff rate: Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Carrasco, Francisco Liriano, and Erasmo Ramirez.
That last name might give you pause, but it shouldn’t, really. Not only has Erasmo Ramirez taken a leap forward this year — mostly by abandoning his bad curveball — but Hamels has better fastballs than the Ray. Give him a little extra credit for being a lefty (only five lefty starters have averaged better than Hamels’ 92.2 mph on the fastball this year, and the average lefty throws about a mph slower than the average righty), and you could call it plus.
Cole Hamels: now with four plus pitches. Sounds like an ace, and probably even a bargain with those three years and $70 million left on his deal.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Off Topic, I know, but where can I find ranking of Total Bases/IP? Greinke has 124 TB in his 131 IP and for the life of me I can’t find a site that lets me sort by TB/IP for this year or historically to see if this is something to follow as Zack goes forward.
Baseball reference can facilitate this.
Go to the play index, and search for single seasons, sorting by TB, and make sure IP is included in the output. Export by CSV to excel, and create a simple division function. Then sort the data.
Here’s the rub: You’ll need a subscription to baseball reference to do this. Which I don’t have. Which is why I can’t just give you the answer.
Baseball Reference has so much potential, but I do not want to waste money on a subscription for information that I can get for free on Fangraphs 99% if the time.
Oh well…
There’s actually a play index function where you can search based on TB/IP. The trick is to play with the ratio until you get like 20 results, then you can sort ascending and descending to see all 20. The best season ever is Gibson’s 1968 obviously, with 254 TB in 304.2 IP. Next is Ryan’s 239/284 in 1972.
But Dave Cameron says…
Off Topic, but I’m craving a reuben right now? Who knows where I can find a real good reuben here in Dubuque?
Dubuque Mining Company. Order “The Kinda Reuben.”
Eno,
What have you seen, if anything, from Hamels’ past two starts that has been different enough to warrant such bad results? Is this just normal variation that should’t cause concern?
some bad BABIP luck, some poor pitch selection. Yesterday’d weather was ridiculous, and he’s always been worse in day games.
I’d say is is mostly pitch selection/sequencing. He only struck out one guy yesterday, and has given up consistent hard contact. So I have a hard time blaming any of that on “luck”.
Poor starts happen though, he will be fine.
The Phillies defense is pathetic
Dave Cameron says he’s crap. I trust him.
citation? Didn’t think so
Since betts is 10 on trade value list and hamel is worth 3 betts …. Dave must have made a mistake
Disagree. Problem is he does not have a plus fastball anymore. The velocity may be there, but it is getting hit hard. Kind of lifeless with little movement. Giants and Marlins were sitting on it and driving it.
Ace days are over, like most 30 plus pitchers, he will have to start reinventing himself to remain effective long term. No longer a pitcher who can throw the ball past hitters.
Thanks for the eyewitness report, definitely trumps these fancy statistics.
In other news, eyewitnesses swear that Johnny Cueto is also totally washed up. Pictures at eleven.
“he will have to start reinventing himself to remain effective long term. ”
You did read the article, right? The one about Hamels reinventing himself in 2009 with the cutter and last year with the curve…
No, he just comes here for the pictures.
I dont think you actually watched his last start. The Marlins broke out their pitching wedges and dropped balls in areas statues like Domonic Brown and Ryan Howard couldnt waddle to. The batted balls tell the story. He gave up 13% line drives in that start and a hard contact rate right in line with his season. His Giants start wasnt even as bad as it looked. Hamels in front of an outfield like the Astros would probably shave a run off his ERA.
The problem really seems to be control; if the Philly commentators (and my eyes) are to be believed, Cole’s stuff is as good as ever, but he’s just not hitting his spots with it.
I was listening to the radio broadcast of the game yesterday, and Larry Anderson insisted that Cole was “leaving his hip open,” which caused him to vary greatly in his release point/angle, resulting in a lot of pitches up. I can neither confirm nor deny that this is happening, though that’s what LA says. In fact, looking at his release points, they seem to be as uniform as they’ve ever been, although he’s letting the ball go a couple inches wider than he has in the last few years.
I have a huge man-crush on Cole Hamels, and I’ll HATE to see him go. But he deserves better than to be stuck on this abysmal team.
Hamels is a big time pitcher, and he only improves as the tension grows greater. Dude is straight money in big games. (WS MVP wasn’t an accident)
Never saw a pitcher that could more gracefully carve up batters.
And he’s below market for 3 years.
Yeah, Reuben is an ass sometimes (most times? always?)… but he is dead right to demand a big return in a deal for Hamels.
Hamels is worth it.
I actually agree with you about Amaro.
Hamels is a stud, he has time on his side in regards to dealing Hamels (3 years below market), and the dude is a great pitcher.
I would think something will get done this off-season because there is a lot of risk involved with waiting another season to make a deal, but I am impressed with the guts Amaro has shown here. He has cracked yet.
I suppose guts and stupidity are the same thing until the unknowable future becomes known. IF Amaro finally trades Hamels (or the Phillies do after Amaro gets fired) and IF they get a package that seemms better than what they would have gotten last offseason (or even earlier), then we can describe him in that circumstances as having been “gutsy.” But even then I think his overall evaluation is “stupid” since his efforts to be gutsy have generally resulted in losing trade value, not gaining it.
Giving Amaro credit for guts right is like saying a golfer who hits a good drive after 20 whiffs is “talented.” I think we have enough data in his record to date to judge him regards of whether he gets lucky at last. Which I think he won’t.
well… I’m not one to call Amaro gutsy… or anything else really. I don’t know what his options have been… so, I won’t pretend to know one way or the other.
But good on you for passing your knowing judgement on him!
FWIW (and its worth essentially nothing)… yes, “Rube” has made himself a SABR pariah. And justly so.
But I feel its also important to know that he came from, and was embedded in, a hierarchy that was extremely familial, from the top down.
Its been that way with the Phillies since the Carpenters owned the team. Maybe longer for all I know… I don’t remember a time before the Carpenters.
Not making a judgement. I’ve worked at places that were organized in a similar familial fashion… and it had major pluses, and some strong minuses.
Yes, that method has been pretty much gone away in MLB now. And likely for the better (overall).
But in a lot of ways, I’m OK that the Phillies hung onto it as long as they did. I’m not happy that our team sucks now. But the Phillies always felt a bit like part of my family to me… and maybe thats stupid, and horseshit, and they laughed at me all the way to the bank.
But my heart says they didn’t.
My heart says the Phillies brass cared… and continue to care. They took care of their employees, treated them like family, maybe to a fault.
But it always felt well intentioned. And they were very successful for a while.
I applaud them for that. I also applaud them for (now, seemingly) realizing that the game is no longer a game. Its a business, and they seem to have finally gotten that message.
That makes me happy. And a little sad. But hey… I’m just some idiot Phillies fan. What do I know? LOL
Feel free to keep on busting on Amaro, like everyone else does. He’s earned it… at least some of it. (OK, maybe most of it)
But I’ll refrain. I feel like he’s learned some lessons now. Obviously too late. He’s pretty much toast now… but maybe the Phils can keep him around some way. I kind of hope they can.
“My heart says the Phillies brass cared… and continue to care. They took care of their employees, treated them like family, maybe to a fault.”
Care to explain this? I don’t think anybody knows what you’re talking about.
What a wishy washy bunch of nonsense, Davels. Theyre 30 games under in mid-July. How are you not running Amaro out of town?
Paul, I’m born and raised in Philly. Lived in the area since 1961. Followed the Phils since I can remember (literally).
so… umm. NO. I can’t really explain all that to you! LOL
The Phillies (finally… after SOOOO many years)… achieve some success on the field, and have sudden and amazing financial success at the same time (new ballpark, constantly sold out)… and then they begin to overpay and overextend their players.
Doesn’t that seem like the type of “mistake” a family type business might make?
The Phillies are the losingest professional sports team of all time. You know that, right? So, can you blame the brass for overextending a little when they taste some success?
Yes. They should have known it wasn’t going to last.
You should be ashamed for looking at a situation and trying to understand the underlying human reasons for it.
Haven’t you heard that materialism is ascendant? That we are meat robots, god is dead, that we’ve proved a biochemical model of conciousness (wait we haven’t? Oh well I’m sure it’s about to happen. I read a headline on Discover magazine that said so) and there is nothing new under the sun?
That was well expressed and quite enlightening and actually made me think more about the situation than ANYTHING else I’ve read on FG about Amaro in ages.
Thanks. It’s easy to forget there are human beings involved and frankly I’d prefer to root for an organization that kept as much humanity as possible in its decision making process.
Let’s also recall that plenty of sabr friendly front offices have failed miserably as well. It happens. Amaro made a few disastrous decisions. Not least of which was trading lee and the Pence cycle but from the outside i see a team that has just finished the greatest stretch in its very long history and think the amaro bashing gets distasteful.
Why did they make these decisions? That interests me more at this point. And your comment did more to attempt to explain that than another “lol RBI!!” comment.
The old curve is a camel. Works for Kershaw, but it might as well be a different pitch from the second frame. Any hitter is going to be slower to recognize the new curve for what it is, and it has a later break.
Psychic