Cole in Cleveland’s Stocking: Tied ALDS Set to Return to Bronx

© David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, on the brink of an upset, Gerrit Cole put the Yankees and their shaky bullpen on his back. The righty went seven strong, sparing the Yankees the Dodgers’ and Braves’ fate for at least another day. Despite showing slightly diminished fastball velocity (he was down 0.8 mph for the second start in a row) and despite a recent reliance on offspeed pitches, Cole’s heater was crucial to his success. While his one major blemish, a solo shot off the bat of Josh Naylor, came on the pitch, its plate discipline statistics were on par with those of his breaking balls:

Gerrit Cole Plate Discipline By Pitch
Pitch SwStr% CStr% Z-Swing% O-Swing%
FF 14.0 16.0 71.0 50.0
KC 14.3 14.3 56.0 37.0
SL 15.4 15.4 67.0 50.0

For his part, Cal Quantrill kept the Guardians in the game after giving up three runs through the first two frames. He settled down, at one point retiring nine straight Yankees. But the Guardians could only muster two runs on six hits, failing to bail Quantrill out against Cole for the second time this week.

The scoring began in the first. For the second game in a row, Gleyber Torres led off for the Yankees, with Aaron Judge sliding to the two-spot. Since he concluded his pursuit of the American League home run record, pitchers have returned to going after Judge, diminishing his on-base percentage (.483 between hitting his 60th and 62nd home runs, .176 in the postseason). While Torres, with his .310 OBP, may not have been the most logical replacement, he mashed to the tune of a 12th-in-the-majors 171 wRC+ and .388 OBP in September. He rewarded the Yankees’ decision-makers with a groundball single to the right side to get things started.

Judge, up next, elicited an excited yelp from me when he battered a 1-1 sinker, but the ball landed inches foul down the left field line. Ultimately, he would whiff on a 3-2 cutter. Torres, running on the pitch, made it to second as the throw skipped past Andrés Giménez. If not for some trickery by the Guardians second baseman, who made Torres think he came up with the ball, the Yankees may have had a man on third with just one out. No matter, however, as Anthony Rizzo lined a single up the middle two pitches later, scoring Torres. With Giancarlo Stanton in the box, Yankees’ skipper Aaron Boone, under fire for his bullpen management in a heartbreaking loss the night before, made another questionable decision by putting on the steal sign. For Rizzo, slowed by a back injury in September and with a lowly 63.7% stolen base success rate in his career (73.0% across the league in that time), this choice was a head-scratcher. His early jump alerted Quantrill, and Rizzo was tagged out before a single pitch to Stanton, who went on to ground out.

Steven Kwan led off the Guardians’ half of the inning with an infield single over Cole’s head. Cole hesitated in his attempt to stab it, but he was the only fielder who had a chance to. His four-seamer was down 1.3 mph out of the gate, and that mistake on Kwan’s grounder may have been costly if he had not buckled down, striking out Amed Rosario and then José Ramírez on three pitches each. Cole went on to strike out eight seldom-whiffing Guardians against just one walk; Cleveland had the lowest K-rate in the league this year by a wide margin, besting the second-ranked Astros by 1.3%, more than the distance between the Astros and the seventh-ranked White Sox. While Kwan stole second on the Rosario strikeout, Ramírez’s punchout and Naylor’s popup spelled the end of the inning.

The Yankees struck again in the second. Their next try began much the same way as their first, with Josh Donaldson punching a single through the hole in the right side. After a lazy fly out off the bat of Oswaldo Cabrera, Harrison Bader stepped to the plate. Besides the calls for Boone’s dismissal, the Yankees front office has received heat for surrendering 1.8 WAR’s worth of players at the trade deadline. After the team acquired him for rotation stalwart Jordan Montgomery, Bader’s injury woes and paltry 47 wRC+ for the club down the stretch only added to the frustration. But he sent the first pitch he saw from Quantrill, a cutter right down the pipe, 429 feet and over the wall in left-center field. To that point, the 109.1 mph rocket was Bader’s third homer of the postseason in just 12 plate appearances, not to mention his third homer (and fifth hit) off Quantrill in just six career plate appearances (including the postseason) against the right-hander.

Quantrill’s dominant stretch began after Bader’s homer; the next nine Yankees failed to reach. The Guardians took the opportunity to strike back, scoring once each in the third and fourth innings to bring the score to 3-2.

In the bottom of the third, Ramírez came up once again with a man in scoring position. A leadoff Austin Hedges walk and a Rosario single sandwiched two field outs; a fielder’s choice put Kwan on second instead of Hedges. Cole generated his first whiff in 20 pitches by starting Ramírez, the most dangerous Guardians hitter, off with a slider low and in. The next pitch, a low knuckle curve, elicited a swing and a miss as well. On 0-2, Cole opted for a slider even lower than either of the previous pitches; how Ramírez got even decent wood on it is beyond me. But the third baseman was able to poke it into shallow left field where Aaron Hicks was situated. Hicks, making his first appearance of the playoffs, was out in left so that Cabrera could move to short and spell the defensively-struggling Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Even though he had the best shot at the ball, Hicks yielded to Donaldson, who couldn’t come up with it. Kwan scored and Rosario scrambled to third; however, he would be left stranded as Ramírez took too wide of a turn rounding first and was thrown out on a relay, bringing the inning to an end.

The next inning, just as Bob Costas was marveling at how 17 of the 19 Guardians’ hits in the series were singles, Naylor cranked a 2-2 four-seamer over the wall in right-center field. Naylor took the previous pitch of the seven-pitch at-bat deep down the right field line foul, so it seemed like only a matter of time. Rounding the bases, the first baseman rocked an invisible baby in his arms, calling out to Cole and saying something along the lines of “you’re my son!” or “who’s your daddy?” Cole sat down Naylor in their next meeting in the sixth. After the game, he was asked what he thought of the celebration. The straight-faced hurler remarked that it was pretty funny.

Quantrill departed after five innings, and Guardians’ manager Terry Francona brought in Eli Morgan. Despite Morgan’s six whiffs on just 23 pitches, an infield single, a popup-down-the-line double, and a sac fly gave the Yankees an insurance run. Cody Morris, one of many Guardians’ rookies, retired every Yankee he faced over the next two innings. Zach Plesac, in just his third appearance since breaking his hand in August, struck out two in a scoreless ninth. The move to Morris and a rusty Plesac gave me pause, but the two amassed three perfect innings with five K’s, and now Francona has more weapons to use in what looks to be a bullpen-heavy day for the Guardians in Game 5.

The Yankees’ bullpen bounced back after a tough Game 4. Holmes, understandably, was the first reliever after Cole departed. Boone knew he had to get him in the game this time. Holmes struck out two and walked one in a scoreless eighth, his bowling-ball sinker looking sharp. Wandy Peralta, who faltered in the ninth inning of the previous game, closed things out with a perfect ninth this time, his third appearance in as many days.

The Yankees got away with a couple of flubs in this one, be it on the managerial side with Rizzo’s stolen base signal or the player side with Ramírez’s .090 xBA single landing between Hicks and Donaldson. Cole gave them a cushion yesterday, but the Yankees appear set to go with Jameson Taillon this evening. Taillon looked shaky in relief in Game 2, taking the loss and failing to record an out. And while the club only used two relievers in this game, they were two of their best and likely won’t be available in the next contest. The Guardians, meanwhile, have a well-rested Aaron Civale and Emmanuel Clase waiting behind him. The Yankees did what they had to to secure a Game 4 victory, but after all of the upsets we’ve seen this October, another just might be on its way come Game 5.





Alex is a FanGraphs contributor. His work has also appeared at Pinstripe Alley, Pitcher List, and Sports Info Solutions. He is especially interested in how and why players make decisions, something he struggles with in daily life. You can find him on Twitter @Mind_OverBatter.

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Left of Centerfield
1 year ago

I need a JomBoy breakdown of that Naylor homerun!!!