Jeremy Peña Sends the Astros to the ALCS in 18-Inning Thriller

Finally, a postseason game that went into extra innings. Everyone was waiting for it to happen. After all, that sort of thing hadn’t occurred since… a week ago. In retrospect, that “marathon” Guardians-Rays game was pretty zippy. Just 15 innings? Only 394 pitches? On Saturday night, the Astros and Mariners cordially invited the Guardians and Rays to hold their beer. Then another. Then perhaps six more.

How about an 18-inning game, tied for the longest in postseason history? How about 498 pitches? How about a record 44 strikeouts? The teams combined for 18 hits across those 18 frames. Christian Vázquez came in as a pinch hitter in the seventh and batted five times. Luis Garcia came on in relief and very nearly notched a quality start. The Mariners didn’t allow their first walk until the 16th (though they did hit four batters).

The win probability graph tells the story of a game that was up for grabs throughout its six hour, 22 minute duration:

Of course, with George Kirby starting for the Mariners and Lance McCullers Jr. starting for the Astros, it would have been reasonable to expect a low-scoring affair, with the starting pitching making the difference. Kirby is known for filling up the zone, famously starting off a game in August with 24 straight strikes. In July, Ben Clemens raised the possibility that Kirby might need to dial down his zone rate and hunt for more chases. He ended up throwing 44% of his pitches in the zone on Saturday, down from his season average of 55.1%, but the big difference was his contact allowed on those pitches. In Game 3 it was just 41%, down from 81.2% in the regular season. McCullers, returning from a flexor tendon injury, pitched in only eight games this season but was as effective as ever.

The game started at 1:08 PM Pacific, and in the beginning, the story seemed to be the shadows. The ball was going from light to dark and no one seemed to be able to see it. Kirby needed just 11 pitches to retire the Astros in the first; McCullers needed just eight in the bottom of the frame. Dusty Baker and Scott Servais gave interviews during the third, with both blaming the shadows for their respective team’s offensive struggles. (Umpire Marvin Hudson also seemed to struggle to see the ball, missing several ball-strike calls in the early innings.)

But it soon became clear that anyone hoping the hitting would pick up once the shadows reached the mound was in for a disappointment. Between them, the teams stranded 24 runners. The game was full of bloop singles. In fact, half of the game’s 18 hits left the bat with an exit velocity of less than 95.4 mph. There were just three extra base hits. Between all the weak contact and the fact that 41% of the game’s outs came on strikeouts, it’s no wonder runs were scarce.

That isn’t to say the early going was without amusement. In the fifth, Jose Altuve popped up directly to first base. Martín Maldonado, who had reached on a bloop single, seemed to be standing his ground in order to interfere with Ty France’s ability to catch the ball. While Maldonado was doing so, however, he forgot to put his foot back on the bag and ended up being doubled off in embarrassing fashion:

Most of the other outs were the result of good pitching. McCullers threw 88 pitches, ending with a line of six innings, two hits, two walks, seven strikeouts, and no runs. He allowed just three hard-hit balls to the Mariners, all of which resulted in outs. In a development that should make my colleague Kyle Kishimoto very happy, McCullers led with his secondaries, throwing his slider 52% of the time and his sinker just 14%. He didn’t throw a single fastball to Cal Raleigh, Carlos Santana, Jarred Kelenic, or J.P. Crawford. (For his part, Kirby was also superlative. He posted a similar line, throwing 92 pitches and putting up seven innings, six hits, five strikeouts, and no runs.)

The Astros’ plan was clearly to throw Julio Rodríguez sliders away and make him expand the strike zone. It worked, as Seattle’s young star struck out swinging in his first three plate appearances, seeing just four pitches in the zone. McCullers threw him 16 pitches in the game, 13 of which were sliders. Rodríguez’s one hit came in the eighth off a Rafael Montero slider that caught a bit too much of the plate. He lined a double off the left field wall, just a couple of feet from going over the fence.

Meanwhile, Houston’s four, five, and six hitters provided nearly all of their production. Alex Bregman went 3-for-8, Kyle Tucker was 2-for-7 with Houston’s only walk, and Yuli Gurriel went 3-for-8.

In the first two games of the series, Altuve went 0-for-8 with three strikeouts and a walk. In Game 3, he went 0-for-8 with three strikeouts and no walks. He swung at 21 of the 25 pitches he saw, putting the ball in play on just one pitch that was in the zone:

Yordan Alvarez, the hero of Games 1 and 2, went 0-for-7 with two strikeouts, though he did have four hard-hit balls, the most in the game. He saw a surprising 13 pitches in the zone, or 1.625 per plate appearance. Despite his rough night, he still finished the series with an OPS of 1.086.

After the top of the seventh inning, it was a bullpen game. Héctor Neris, the first of 16 relievers, retired the Mariners in order in the seventh. Andrés Muñoz pitched the eighth for the Seattle, allowing a double to Bregman. Montero pitched the eighth for the Astros, allowing the aforementioned Rodríguez double before striking out France to end the inning. From that point on, every Mariners batter to reach the plate would have the opportunity to end the game with one swing.

In the ninth, Diego Castillo allowed two baserunners before Matt Brash entered to contain the Astros. In the bottom of the inning, Ryan Pressly also allowed two baserunners before retiring the Mariners and sending the game to extras.

In the 10th, Brash retired the Astros in order; in the bottom of the inning, Bryan Abreu retired the Mariners in order.

In the 11th, Paul Sewald retired the Astros in order; in the bottom of the inning, Ryne Stanek retired the Mariners in order.

In the 12th, Sewald ruined a perfectly good streak by hitting Chas McCormick, then retired the next three Astros in order. In the bottom of the inning, Hunter Brown allowed a baserunner of his own before ending the inning with a double play. As Brown pitched, Erik Swanson was warming up to handle the 13th for the Mariners. Over in Cleveland, the Guardians had already scored two runs. That’s right, the Guardians. From Cleveland. Even they scored runs, and their game started three hours later. Back in Seattle, Swanson — you guessed it — retired the Astros in order.

Matthew Festa pitched the 14th and 15th innings for the Mariners, needing just 17 pitches to retire all six batters he faced. Baker called on Garcia to pitch the bottom of the 14th. Garcia’s delivery looks like something he might have learned in a step aerobics class, and it certainly worked for him in Game 3. He went five innings, striking out six and allowing just two base runners, both on singles.

Servais called on Matthew Boyd and Penn Murfee in the 16th. With two runners on, Gurriel crushed one into the gap in right center, a ball sure to score at least one if not for Rodríguez, who made a spectacular play to chase down the ball, slide and come up firing:

Bregman tagged and advanced to third, but Murfee retired Aledmys Díaz to end the frame. The ball hit to Rodríguez had a 10% catch probability.

And who should come up in the bottom of the inning but Rodríguez? You know how people talk about players making amazing defensive plays and then crushing a home run when they come up to bat in the next half inning? Well that didn’t happen last night. Rodríguez popped out to third and the Mariners went quietly. The Houston bullpen hadn’t allowed a run in the previous two ALDS games, and they added 12 more scoreless innings in Game 3. Santana was the only Mariner with two hits on the night.

After yet another scoreless frame in the 17th, Jeremy Peña hit a home run in the 18th. That’s right. Somebody finally scored a run. After his huge performance as a table-setter in Game 2, Peña delivered the big hit himself in Game 3. He turned around an 88.1 mph fastball from Murfee and hit one into the gap that just kept on carrying:

After the home run, Kelenic made a great diving catch on a sinking liner off the bat of Alvarez. He looked absolutely despondent as he picked himself up after the fantastic play:

After Murfee surrendered the final weakly hit single of the game to Bregman, the game was officially over — in that Robbie Ray came in to pitch. But Ray retired Tucker and Gurriel to bring the Mariners up to bat.

The Astros put in defensive replacements. Mariners fans put shoes on their heads. Kelenic bounced out to first. Crawford bounced out to short. The Mariners brought the exact person they wanted to the plate, but Rodríguez flew out to center, and that was the game and the season:

The Astros are going to the ALCS for the sixth year in a row, and they’ll have three more days of rest before they take on either the Guardians or the Yankees.

The Mariners ended a roller coaster of a season in electrifying, heartbreaking fashion. It was 27 years to the day since Ken Griffey’s Jr.’s dash home in Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS. It was nearly 21 years since the Mariners had last hosted a playoff game. And though they went home disappointed, Seattle fans will certainly remember this game and have a lot to look forward to in 2023.