Contract Crowdsourcing 2012-13: Results

Over the last couple-few weeks, we’ve asked readers to estimate the years and average annual dollar amounts likely to be received by certain notable free agents. Below are the results of that exercise.

After each player’s respective name and position are rounded values for years and total projected contract value — represented as Yrs and Tot $, respectively. After that, are four related numbers: the decimal versions both of years and average-annual value (written as Yrs and AAV) and the standard deviations of both data sets, too (listed as Ystd and Astd, respectively).

Below the table are answers to some other questions that appeared on the crowdsourcing forms — mostly concerning options (whether they would be exercised or declined for certain players) but also other matters, as well. Unfortunately, owing to the terrific brevity of the recent World Series, we were unable to finish the entire crowdsourcing project before teams began making decisions on said options. While of no predictive benefit, then, those results allow us to make sweeping judgments about the intelligence of the collective FanGraphs readership!

Note: the author has included all crowdsourced data regarding Dan Haren, despite the fact that he (Haren, not the author) could very well be traded this exact minute.

Player	Pos	Yrs	Tot $	———-	Yrs	AAV	Ystd	Astd
Zack Greinke	SP	6	114	|	5.7	18.6	1.1	3.9
Josh Hamilton	CF	5	100	|	4.8	20.3	1.3	3.7
Michael Bourn	CF	5	70	|	4.7	14.3	0.9	4.3
Nick Swisher	COF	4	56	|	4.4	14.0	1.0	4.9
B.J. Upton	CF	4	52	|	4.5	12.6	1.3	3.4
Anibal Sanchez	SP	4	52	|	4.0	13.0	0.9	4.6
Kyle Lohse	SP	4	52	|	3.5	12.7	0.9	5.0
Mike Napoli	C	3	36	|	3.5	12.4	1.1	6.4
Adam LaRoche	1B	3	36	|	3.0	11.6	0.9	5.9
Dan Haren	SP	3	36	|	3.0	11.7	1.3	3.6
Edwin Jackson	SP	3	36	|	3.1	12.5	0.9	4.7
Ryan Dempster	SP	3	36	|	2.8	11.7	1.0	5.1
Angel Pagan	CF	3	30	|	3.2	10.1	0.8	3.9
Shane Victorino	CF	3	30	|	2.7	10.3	1.0	3.7
Cody Ross	COF	3	30	|	2.6	9.6	0.7	5.8
Rafael Soriano	RHRP	3	30	|	2.7	10.4	0.9	4.4
David Ortiz	DH	2	26	|	2.1	13.0	0.9	4.8
Hiroki Kuroda	SP	2	24	|	1.7	12.2	0.8	2.9
Torii Hunter	COF	2	20	|	2.2	10.3	0.8	4.3
Brandon McCarthy	SP	2	20	|	2.4	10.0	1.0	5.1
Shaun Marcum	SP	2	20	|	2.3	9.6	1.0	3.4
A.J. Pierzynski	C	2	18	|	2.1	8.9	0.8	4.1
Kevin Youkilis	3B	2	18	|	2.2	9.2	0.9	4.5
Russell Martin	C	2	16	|	2.4	8.2	1.1	4.7
Marco Scutaro	SS	2	16	|	2.3	7.8	0.7	3.7
Stephen Drew	SS	2	16	|	2.4	7.8	1.0	4.1
Ichiro Suzuki	COF	2	16	|	1.5	8.2	0.7	3.6
Melky Cabrera	COF	2	16	|	1.7	8.2	1.1	3.7
Delmon Young	DH	2	16	|	2.4	7.6	1.2	4.6
Joe Saunders	SP	2	16	|	2.1	7.8	0.8	2.9
Mike Adams	RHRP	2	14	|	2.3	6.7	0.7	3.1
Francisco Liriano	SP	2	14	|	1.6	7.3	0.8	3.1
Joe Blanton	SP	2	14	|	2.1	7.5	1.0	3.4
Kelly Johnson	2B	2	12	|	2.0	6.3	1.0	3.2
Koji Uehara	RHRP	2	12	|	1.9	5.7	0.8	2.8
Carlos Villanueva	SP	2	12	|	2.0	5.9	1.0	3.0
Jeremy Guthrie	SP	2	12	|	1.8	6.1	1.0	2.5
Scott Baker	SP	2	12	|	1.8	6.1	0.9	2.9
David Ross	C	2	10	|	1.9	4.8	0.8	3.4
Jeff Keppinger	2B	2	10	|	2.0	5.5	0.9	3.6
Maicer Izturis	2B	2	10	|	2.1	4.6	0.9	2.7
Jonny Gomes	COF	2	10	|	1.5	5.0	0.7	3.0
Franc. Rodriguez	RHRP	2	10	|	1.6	5.4	1.0	3.8
Jeremy Affeldt	LHRP	2	10	|	2.0	5.3	0.7	2.3
Lance Berkman	1B	1	8	|	1.3	7.7	0.8	4.0
Carlos Lee	1B	1	6	|	1.3	5.7	0.7	3.4
Carlos Pena	1B	1	6	|	1.3	6.0	0.6	3.9
Raul Ibanez	DH	1	6	|	1.3	5.6	0.8	4.2
Roy Oswalt	SP	1	6	|	1.1	5.7	0.6	3.4
Eric Chavez	3B	1	5	|	1.4	4.8	1.0	4.1
Travis Hafner	DH	1	5	|	1.2	5.2	0.6	3.7
Casey Kotchman	1B	1	4	|	1.3	3.7	0.6	3.4
Placido Polanco	3B	1	4	|	1.4	4.2	0.6	2.9
Alex Gonzalez	SS	1	4	|	1.3	4.1	0.7	2.4
Luke Scott	DH	1	4	|	1.4	4.5	0.7	3.5
Michael Gonzalez	LHRP	1	4	|	1.4	4.0	1.0	3.8
Daisuke Matsuzaka	SP	1	4	|	1.2	4.5	0.4	2.5
Kelly Shoppach	C	1	3	|	1.4	3.5	0.9	3.2
Freddy Sanchez	2B	1	3	|	1.2	3.1	0.7	3.1

Below are the results from other questions that appeared on the various crowdsourcing forms. In those cases where the answer to the question has been revealed (as in the case of options, whether they’ve been exercised or declined), the correct outcome is marked with a triple (i.e. the most extreme variety of) asterisk (***).

“I don’t trust Adam LaRoche, his name is too French.” – You
50.0% – True
50.0% – False

Does Freddy Sanchez Exist?
50.7% – Yes, he’s a real baseball player.
49.3% – No, you just made up this person’s name, or something.

Placido Polanco has a $5.5 million mutual option (with $1 million buyout) on his contract for 2013. What will happen?
58.8% – Polanco will exercise it, but the Phillies won’t.***
20.0% – Both parties will exercise it.
12.2% – The Phillies will exercise it, but Polanco won’t.
09.0% – Neither party will exercise it.

The White Sox hold a $13 million option (with $1 million buyout) on Kevin Youkilis’s contract for 2013. What will happen?
67.8% – They won’t exercise it.***
32.2% – They will exercise it.

Stephen Drew has a $10 million mutual option (with a $1.35 million buyout) on his contract for 2013. What will happen?
56.5% – Drew will exercise it, but the Athletics won’t.***
18.6% – Both parties will exercise it.
13.9% – The Athletics will exercise it, but Drew won’t.
11.0% – Neither party will exercise it.

Which will be Ichiro’s last season in the Majors?
46.9% – 2014
19.1% – 2013
13.4% – 2015
12.3% – Never
08.3% – 2012

Cleveland holds a $13 million option on Travis Hafner for 2013. Will they exercise it?
83.3% – No***
12.9% – Get out of here with your “questions,” question man.
03.8% – Yes

Tampa Bay holds a $6 million option on Luke Scott for 2013 (with a $1 million buyout). Will they exercise it?
68.0% – No***
32.0% – Yes

Will Delmon Young make more appearances in 2013 as an outfielder or designated hitter?
55.2% – Designated Hitter
44.8% – Outfielder

The Tigers hold a $3.5 million option (with a $500K buyout) on Octavio Dotel’s contract. Will they exercise it?
86.2% – Yes***
13.8% – No

Rafael Soriano has a $14 million option on his contract with the Yankees. Will he exercise it?
56.8% – No***
43.2% – Yes

What’s the highest (i.e. worst) xFIP- Koji Uehara has posted as a reliever in major-league baseball?
58.5% – 77
24.5% – 64***
08.9% – 58
08.1% – 91

Toronto holds a $3 million option on Darren Oliver’s contract (with a $500K buyout). Will they exercise it?
84.0% – Yes***
16.0% – No

True or false: long-time major-league left-hander Darren Oliver is older than your father.
94.4% – False
05.6% – True

Sometimes, in a movie, one character tells another character, “You’ll never work in this town again!” Will Daisuke Matsuzaka ever work in this town again — if, by “town,” one means “the United States of America”?
42.3% – Yes, he’ll work in this “town” again.
29.9% – I’ve seen some long-winded questions in my day, but this — this! — this takes the cake. (P.S. Give me back my cake.)
27.8% – No, he won’t do that.

The Angels hold a $15.5 million option on Dan Haren for 2013 (with a $3.5 million buyout). Will they exercise it?
67.3% – No
32.7% – Yes

The White Sox hold a $9.5 million option on Gavin Floyd’s contract. Will they exercise it?
79.1% – Yes***
20.9% – No

The Braves hold a $6.5 million option (with a $500K buyout) on Paul Maholm’s contract for 2013. Will they exercise it?
82.0% – Yes***
18.0% – No

The Twins holds a $9.25 million option on Scott Baker’s contract for 2013. Will they exercise it?
83.1% – No***
16.9% – Yes

It was reported at the time that part of the Angels’ motivation in trading for Zack Greinke at the deadline was also to negotiate a long-term deal with him. Will they, in fact, re-sign him?
53.6% – Yes
46.4% – No

The White Sox re-signed Jake Peavy for two years and $29 million. How does that compare to what you expected?
37.9% – About what I expected.
33.3% – More than I expected.
28.7% – Less than I expected.