Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Carlos Beltran.
Some relevant information regarding Beltran:
- Has averaged 606 PA and 3.2 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 3.2 WAR per 600 PA over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 2.0 WAR in 600 PA in 2013.
- Is entering his age-37 season.
- Made $13.0M in 2013, as part of deal signed before 2012 season.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Beltran this offseason.
Other Players: Robinson Cano / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Curtis Granderson / Omar Infante / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.
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What’s the market rate on TWTW again? I’m not sure you can overpay for a guy who wants it that much come october
2 year/$30m is the obvious answer. Hunter and Ortiz got 2/$26m. Beltran is a bit better offensively than Hunter and Ortiz is a DH who had a Achilles problem. Plus he could get “he might be a future HoFer bump”
I think at this point it’s pretty safe to say Beltran is a DH too.
But Hunter is better defensively. I think 2yr/$26M again would be a fair deal for Beltran. Going to be interesting to see what happens if he’s given a Qualifying Offer though.
But I ultimately think St. Louis makes a QO, it is in market range and you get draft pick compensation if he leaves. And I think Beltran accepts.
But what about Taveras? Do you think they’ll just have him on the roster to take Beltran’s place when he has to rest? Seems like kind of a waste…
14 mil for a 37 year old that can’t play every day and who is blocking your top prospect, i’m not so sure about that…
Maybe you trade Jon Jay and put Taveras in center if you think he can handle it… Then you can put Beltran/Craig in right with Adams taking first when Beltran’s out.
You guys all seem to think St Louis would keep him. Does a QO require St Louis to hold Beltran? I would extend QO and wait and see who has pitching to spend, given that the market doesn’t seem deep.
I think it actually does require them to keep him until June 1st.
3 way trade. Rays trade Price to Rangers. Rays trade Joyce to Cardinals. Rangers trade Profar to Cards. Cards trade Tavares and Adams to Tampa Bay. Rangers trade Brett Nicholas to Rays.
Rays get: Tavares, Adams, Nicholas
Cards get: Profar, Joyce
Rangers get: Price
Lol what? 0% chance the Cardinals trade the number 2 prospect in baseball and their slugging 1B for a SS who’s stock has fallen (albeit not by much) and a 4th OF
Semperty,
Why would you dismiss the trade as the Cardinals giving away the number 2 prospect in baseball, but ignore that Profar was the number 1 prospect in baseball before he graduated this year?
As a Cardinals fan, I think it’s pretty doubtful Beltran get’s a QO. Adams has shown that he deserves to play everyday and is a much cheaper option. And even if Adams isn’t good enough Taveras will be MLB-ready by the super-2 cutoff next year.
The Cardinals won’t risk $14 million just to hope he declines and they get a draft pick. It’ll be hard for Beltran to get a better deal than $14 million AAV when teams know they lose their first round pick if they sign him. Look at Loshe last offseason. He turned down the Cardinal’s QO and almost didn’t get a deal from anyone.
I say good luck to Beltran and thanks for a couple good seasons. But this is a great time to cut him loose, especially since he should be a DH at this point.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jay fall back to his 4th OF role (the role he had prior to the 2011 trade), have Oscar Taveras play CF (they’ve played him almost exclusively in CF for about two years now, from what I’ve read), and keep Beltran in RF. Jay can still give Beltran a few breaks now, and again, but Beltran still gets a majority of the plate appearances. Also, Jays is infinitely better as a 4th OF than Chambers – so Jay and Robinson might share the duties.
he’s beg to look like a liability in the OF. That will limit which teams are likely to pursue him. The Cards need to make room for some kids coming up and so at least Beltran likely won’t have the burden of comp attached to him. He could get another 2 yr deal similar to what he got last time, 2/26M I think. He still looks worthy of that but market factors will apply and most teams shudder at dishing that kind of scratch out for a 37 yo.
Beginning? Beltran is impossible not to love, but he was a big defensive liability last year and somehow his defense still fell off a cliff this year.
Beltran has been the Card’s offense right now…. if the cards find a way to win (i hope not), he could be in for a bigger payday than what he would get right now… These guys contract croudsourcing should really be delayed till after their team gets eliminated… It helped him before the Mets contract…
Way different if I were an AL GM…
Taveras basically lost the entire 2013 season to injury, so if Beltran were to accept a QO the Cardinals would likely not cry about it.
but if the Cards want to get Adams into their lineup that means Craig is going to have to move to the OF anyway. Holliday, Jay, Craig, Tavares is already 4 OFers for 3 spots.
Trade Adams while the kettle is hot. Lots of teams would love to over pay for a 1 skill 1st baseman. Hell, the Mariners have had 2 100 million dollar offers in a row turned down by power hitters (Prince, Hamilton). Taijuan probably isn’t realistic, but Paxton or Hultzen might be. The Orioles really need a DH, and Bundy just had Tommy John. He might be expendable to them as well.
Or Tampa Bay. The Cards have an abundance of you talent. The Rays might part with Yunel Escobar, who has 2 more option years at 5 mil each.
Adams doesn’t seem like the kind of guy the Cards will be moving anytime soon. The commodity the Cards can move in order to import a SS is pitching. If they weren’t division rivals you could see the Cards and Cubs match up on a deal.
@LaLoosh
I could easily see Mozeliak and Hoyer working out a deal – they’re both new-schoolish GMs and have long leashes with their ownership.
2 years for 28 million is my offer. Would even overpay for on a 1-year deal, just don’t go more than 2 for him. Would be a great addition for the Yankees as RF/DH.
I’m posting a 1.197 OPS so far this post-season… lowering my career number to just 1.247 in 168 plate appearances.
Stupid slump.
2 years/$22mil. Despite his .296 BA in 2013 and nice power production, he’s 36 and walked 38 times last year in 600 PA. He also struck out 90 times last year.