Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: James Loney
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: James Loney.
Some relevant information regarding Loney:
- Has averaged 548 PA and 1.4 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 1.6 WAR per 600 PA over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 2.7 WAR in 598 PA in 2013.
- Is entering his age-30 season.
- Made $2.0M (plus incentives) in 2013 as part of free-agent deal.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Loney this offseason.
Other Players: Adam Lind / Brian McCann / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I’m thinking something similar to another Rays reclamation project in Jeff Keppinger, 3/12. Obviously Kepp didn’t live up to it this year but there are a lot of similarities between the two, if you sub Loney’s plus defense at 1B for Kepp’s average-ish defense + flexibility. Good contact, meh power veterans.
The obvious comp is Casey Kotchman. He was a year younger than Loney when he had his good year with the Rays, and he was only able to get one year, $3 million from the Indians the next year. I’d bet Loney gets a bit more than that, but how many teams are really going to look at him as a long term solution at first base? Even though he had a career year, he was still only worth 2.7 wins with a 118 wRC+. Any good team is going to want more than that out of first base.
Loney ranks 10th among all first basemen this season plus 2.7 WAR means the same thing whether you get it from your 1st baseman or your shortstop…
So say he regresses next year and is an average first baseman, look at what Adam LaRoche got last year, he’s a better comp imo than Kotchman…
Kotchman put up a 127 wRC+ that year (UZR hates his defense but he has a similar defensive rep to Loney). Seems like a good comp to me.
Seriously doubt most of the bigger spenders are looking at his fWAR to make an offer.
If somebody ever gets underpaid in FA, it’d be this type of player.
Not saying some GM won’t end up giving him something close to what his projected fWAR might warrant, but definitely less likely than most other cases, especially since the Dodgers are already paying $$$ to AGone (and the Yanks to Teix) and have plenty other spending concerns than a backup 1B.
What if the Rays brought him back. Something like what Luke Scott got. 1 year, 6.5 mil with a 5 mil team option? In this case, I see that as a huge bargain for Tampa Bay.
Loney hasn’t bounced around as much and unlike Kotchman, has enjoyed a steadier career minus one manic episode – his decent season isn’t a fluke.
2/14 from a team that has depth to carry a first baseman with seemingly no pop but otherwise can string together a solid, but unspectacular couple of years as a hitter.
Lames Joney
I wouldn’t get him on my team, would give him no more than 3 mil for 1 year. He isn’t a starter in my opinion at 1b.
Kotchman, Pena, Upton, Crawford, Damon, Crawford.
GM’s: Learn from your mistakes! There is something magical about putting on a Rays uniform. Mediocrity is masked by brilliance. The problem is the brilliance is usually supplied by Maddon and Friedman, and the mediocrity is supplied by the player.
Crawford just put up 2.9 WAR despite playing in just 116 games and 469 PAs, so he hasn’t exactly been bad this year.
He’s not a starter.
He might be able to milk 2/$7 out of someone
I’ll just give him 1/$5
Anybody that has watched him over the years knows that this isn’t a fluke, he has posted an obp over .330 for his 5th time. His defense is also gold glove worthy at first, I would take him over Napoli every day of the week.
The Pirates and the Rays demonstrated this year that you can win without a 1B who contributes much power–in fact the Rays have been demonstrating this for the last 3 years.
Because he’s a good contact hitter and is good defensively, I’d offer him one and four. But only if he stayed with the Rays, where pitching and Maddon can cover his deficiencies. Otherwise, where else could he possibly land? Pittsburgh? His value on the free agent market is close to nil.