Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Joe Nathan
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Joe Nathan.
Some relevant information regarding Nathan:
- Has averaged 58.0 IP and 1.4 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 1.6 WAR per 65 IP over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 2.5 WAR in 64.2 IP in 2013.
- Is entering his age-39 season.
- Made $7.0M in 2013, as part of deal signed before 2012 season.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Nathan this offseason.
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4 years $48 million. With Rivera retired, he’s the guy.
Please stop. It’s not funny anymore.
Seconded
Sabre as a group seem to be one of the most humor-challenged people out there. Yes, be advised that there is no room for joking here!
No, snark is fun the first time. By the time that somebody leaves a Dayton Moore comment on every single contract crowdsourcing post, it’s old. And no longer funny.
This one is really hard for me. My mind says not to give him very much considering the age and availability of cheaper options. Nathan will want two years. Wanting two years means he turns down a qualifying offer after voiding the 9 mil option. Problem is, I can’t see anybody wanting to give up a pick and pay him more than that 9 million for multiple years. And there is probably also some part of his brain that will want more than 14 million because that’s around what the qualifying offer will be. Maybe there is a bottom 10 team with a protected pick that would be interested? Cubs/Mariners/Blue Jays/Mets?
So he will hang around unsigned for quite awhile before signing for less than what he wants. And I have no idea what that will be. By WAR/$ conversions, he should be worth around 10 million a year. Two years for a 39 year old pitcher is dangerous in general. But he has been excellent for several years.
Synthesizing all that: Cubs or Mariners have money and a protected pick, and could be signing multiple players with qualifying offers anyways. Cubs because they are on track to compete and can move Nathan for a prospect if not, Mariners because they have a stupid front office trying to go “all in.” Offers top out at 2/13 million.
What I would give: 1/10 – won’t kill you if you have the cash, but there are cheaper options out there.
Why do you think he will turn down $14 million after turning down the $9 mil option?
From my modest perspective, the difference in the two is quite significant.
I think that Nathan is probably married to the idea of two years, irrational as that may be. And it won’t lead to as much money as if he went year to year.
2y/$16m
Unfortunately, teams are willing to pay for closers. Nathan WAS a good closer.
Paying for a closer argument aside…
He STILL IS a good closer.
Unless you consider a 63 and 54 FIP- the last two seasons not good.
Enter an age 39/40 season post injury, we should not make any assumptions.