Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Ubaldo Jimenez
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Ubaldo Jimenez.
Some relevant information regarding Jimenez:
- Has averaged 182.2 IP and 2.2 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 2.2 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 3.2 WAR in 182.2 IP in 2013.
- Is entering his age-30 season.
- Made $5.75M in 2013, as part of extension signed before 2009 season.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Jimenez this offseason.
Other Players: Bronson Arroyo / Carlos Beltran / A.J. Burnett / Marlon Byrd / Robinson Cano / Shin-Soo Choo / Bartolo Colon / Nelson Cruz / David DeJesus / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Scott Feldman / Gavin Floyd / Matt Garza / Curtis Granderson / Roy Halladay / Jason Hammel / Dan Haren / Roberto Hernandez / Tim Hudson / Phil Hughes / Omar Infante / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Nate McLouth / Kendrys Morales / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
It isn’t completely clear that Ubaldo will be a free agent. He had an option for 2014 that was voidable if traded (which he was), but the team is preparing to argue that he had to void it at the time of the trade.
I make no prognostication as to their chances of success, so don’t shoot the messenger.
Citation?
now that would be something if it’s rules that he can’t void it.
I follow Indians news closely and never heard this before. What is your source?
This was probably a poor job by me. I read it from somebody I trust who I think probably misheard what Antonetti was saying. The link below indicates that Antonetti definitely thinks Ubaldo can still void the option.
“Antonetti noted that there is no specific deadline for Jimenez to void the option…”
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131007&content_id=62640272¬ebook_id=62639822&vkey=notebook_cle&c_id=cle
I think what Antonetti is saying is that because he hasn’t voided the club option for a mutual one, that it’s still technically a club option because he hasn’t made his decision.
I think he gets about 10-12 million per year, I would go no higher than 10 mil for a couple years.
I’d say 3 year/$50m.
He is young with upside and without terrible downside. A little bit less then C.J. Wilson.
While I could see him getting your projected contract, I think the phrase “pitcher with terrible downside” would be a good place to link to a picture of Ubaldo Jimenez. Ubaldo from July 2011 thru 4/21/13 was terrible, a below-replacement-level disaster. He was pretty below average from 4/21/13 – 8/2/13, then was fantastic from 8/10/13 to the end of this year.
You would probably have to write out 2012 as ab outlier due to injury,mechanical flaw, or needing to adjust.
He wasn’t awful first 1/2 2013. A 4.50 FIP isn’t awful, just back end of the rotation stuff.
Edwin Jackson got 4y/$52m being meh with upside. I mean lets be honest, Who didn’t drool over Jackson’s 12.2% SwgStk% and hard fastball/slider combo last year? Ubaldo has more upside, But I think diminishing stuff leads to a shorter higher AAV deal.
4.50 FIP is pretty awful. It would have been the 8th-worst FIP of any qualifying starter this year. The 5.06 from last year was even more awful. I can totally see him getting 3/45 (and losing someone a first round draft pick), but I would not want to be a fan of the team that signs him to that contract, unless it’s someone like the Dodgers, to whom that money is inconsequential. $15 million a year, is a price where most teams keep running the guy out there even if he reverts to being the 2012-style disaster, or worse.
I think he’s one of the most interesting free agents this year. On the one hand, if you just look at his raw numbers on Fangraphs, 2012 looks like an outlier. But on the other hand, he’s a completely different pitcher than he was 2008-2010, and his 2011 FIP masks a big swinging strike rate decline (him maintaining a decent K-rate is what’s weird), which along with the ERA, was probably a better measure of the health of his stuff. Can he continue to have success without averaging anywhere near 96 mph on his fastball, or will we just see continued velocity loss and mechanical backsliding? Up through his start against Houston this April, he looked like a DFA candidate. As recently as August, he was bumped from a a big division series for a rookie, because his manager figured he gave the team no chance to win. From that point on, he was lights out, but it was 6 weeks of good pitching after 2 years of failure.
Gila, when you’re talking about a pitcher’s downside, you can’t just write off a horrendous year as an ‘outlier’. That’s what downside is!
Was sure Gila would have him at 3/75M…
without terrible downside
Are you insane? He was one of the worst pitchers in baseball during he tenure in Cleveland (if you discount his second half of 2013, which I feel is a fluke).
FIP says he was bad just 2012. All other yrs fall right in line.