Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 1 of 10

by
October 13, 2014

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, including the most/only notable catcher, first basemen, and also Emilio Bonifacio.

Russell Martin (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Martin:

  • Has averaged 484 PA and 3.8 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.5 WAR per 450 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 5.3 WAR in 460 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 3.4 WAR per 450 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-32 season.
  • Made $8.5M in 2014, as part of deal signed in November of 2012.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Martin.

***

Michael Cuddyer (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Cuddyer:

  • Has averaged 380 PA and 1.5 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.4 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.5 WAR in 205 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 1.5 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-36 season.
  • Made $10.5M in 2014, as part of deal signed in December of 2011.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Cuddyer.

***

Adam LaRoche (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding LaRoche:

  • Has averaged 608 PA and 1.8 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.8 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.6 WAR in 586 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 1.8 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-35 season.
  • Made $12.0M in 2014, as part of deal signed in January of 2013.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for LaRoche.

***

Mark Reynolds (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Reynolds:

  • Has averaged 492 PA and 0.6 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 0.8 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.6 WAR in 433 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 1.2 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-31 season.
  • Made $2.0M in 2014, as part of deal signed in January of 2014.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Reynolds.

***

Emilio Bonifacio (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Bonifacio:

  • Has averaged 387 PA and 1.0 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.6 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 2.1 WAR in 426 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 0.9 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Made $2.5M in 2014, as part of deal signed in February of 2014.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Bonifacio.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

24 Comments
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Dan O'Dowd
9 years ago

Cuddyer gets 5 years for $70 million. Folks just seem to underrate the guy.

3
FeslenR
9 years ago
Reply to  Dan O'Dowd

sure, he’s a good player, but he’s on the wrong age side and he’s been hurt a lot. That said, I can see an AL team signing him to 2-4 years at $55-$60M.

NOT related to reply for O’Dowd..

let’s see: Russel Martin 4 years $50M (resigns with Pirates).

LaRoche- 3 years $35M (Baltimore)
Reynolds- 1 year $3M (SF)
Bonifacio 2 years $6M (Oakland).

0
Dungeon Master Dayton Moore
9 years ago
Reply to  FeslenR

Isn’t the market rate for a win somewhere in the 6-7 mil range? That, plus the lack of other catchers makes me think that Martin is getting more than 50 for 4 years.

1
Matthew Tobin
9 years ago
Reply to  Dungeon Master Dayton Moore

His skill set is still probably undervalued by the market and he really has a one decent offensive reason. He was below replacement level from 2008-2013 offensively and had a crazy BABIP year this year.

I think 15M for 3Y with and $15M option for a 4th makes sense. Then you are talking potentially 4Y/$60M, which puts him slightly below the Molina/McCann territory.

-1
walt526
9 years ago
Reply to  FeslenR

Huh, I put down Cuddyer as getting a Michael Morse contract: 1yr @ $6M.

1
Ruben Amaro
9 years ago
Reply to  FeslenR

Cuddyer: 3 yr, $48 mil with a 1 yr player option worth $12 mil
Martin: 1 yr, $12 mil with a 1 yr mutual option worth $12 mil
LaRoche: 3 yr, $48 mil with a 1 yr player option worth $12 mil
Reynolds: 3 yr, $51 mil with a 1 yr player option worth $12 mil
Bonifacio: 1 yr, $3 mil with a 1 yr team option worth $6 mil

-1
Jason B
9 years ago
Reply to  Dan O'Dowd

Cuddyer getting 5 years entering his age-36 season?! That…that has to be sarcasm, no?

1
Boris Chinchilla
9 years ago
Reply to  Jason B

Haven’t you ever played knifey-spooney before?

0