Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 2 of 10
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.
Below are links to ballots for some shortstops, some third basemen, and at least one shortstop who’s probably a third baseman.
Other Players: Emilio Bonifacio / Michael Cuddyer / Adam LaRoche / Russell Martin / Mark Reynolds.
Asdrubal Cabrera (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Cabrera:
- Has averaged 598 PA and 1.7 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 1.7 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 1.8 WAR in 616 PA in 2014.
- Is projected to record 1.8 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
- Is entering his age-29 season.
- Made $10.0M in 2014, as part of deal signed in April of 2012.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Cabrera.
Chase Headley (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Headley:
- Has averaged 610 PA and 5.1 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 5.0 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 4.4 WAR in 531 PA in 2014.
- Is projected to record 3.9 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
- Is entering his age-31 season.
- Made $10.5M in 2014, as part of deal signed in January of 2014.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Headley.
Jed Lowrie (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Lowrie:
- Has averaged 538 PA and 2.6 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 2.9 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 1.9 WAR in 566 PA in 2014.
- Is projected to record 2.4 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
- Is entering his age-31 season.
- Made $5.3M in 2014, as part of deal signed in January of 2014.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Lowrie.
Aramis Ramirez (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding A. Ramirez:
- Has averaged 504 PA and 3.0 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 3.6 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 2.1 WAR in 531 PA in 2014.
- Is projected to record 1.8 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
- Is entering his age-37 season.
- Made $16.0M in 2014, as part of deal signed in December of 2011.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for A. Ramirez.
Hanley Ramirez (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding H. Ramirez:
- Has averaged 505 PA and 3.8 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 4.5 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 3.4 WAR in 512 PA in 2014.
- Is projected to record 3.3 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
- Is entering his age-31 season.
- Made $16.0M in 2014, as part of deal signed in May of 2008.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.
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AsCab: 2/20M to play 2B in either the Bronx or to stay in DC
Headley: 3/30M to play 3B for the ChiSox
Lowrie: 3/33M to play mostly SS (Oakland or LAD)
ARam: stays with Brewers (mutual option)
HanRam: 5/80M – if he leaves the Dodgers, could see the Marlins as the surprise team there.
actually no way Oakland goes that high for Lowrie.
and where is Drew? I figure he most likely stays with the Yanks.
No way Headley signs for that little $.
The dude is projected for a 4 WAR season.
largely off of defense tho.
So what?
Defense or no, 4 WAR players at age 30 don’t sign for 10 million a year. Someone will offer him more years and higher AAV.
maybe.
Defense isn’t nearly as lucrative as offense. I agree that $10MM is light, but I don’t think he’ll be paid nearly as much as a 4 WAR hitting-heavy player. Michael Bourn got $12MM/year when he was a year younger than Headley, and he was coming off of a 6 WAR season.
“Defense or no, 4 WAR players at age 30 don’t sign for 10 million a year. Someone will offer him more years and higher AAV.”
Russell Martin did. So did Yunel Escobar, JJ Hardy and Martin Prado, all of whom are pretty decent comps.
Those are pretty good comps actually. But still, if Headley signed a 3 year deal I’d expect it to be more in the 40-50 range.
I’m predicting something in the Jhonny Peralta range 4 years and ~50-55 mil.
I’d rather have Headley on that deal than overpay for HanRam
Good point on Bourn as well. I think everyone was surprised at the amount of his deal. From what I remember he was seeking ~ 100 million deal. He had a career year and had a solid track record of consistent 4+ WAR seasons prior. And I thought speed based players projected to age more gracefully than typical players. I get that teams pay a premium for offensive value over anything else, but Bourn still seemed way undervalued.
Obviously that deal hasn’t worked out. Gotta wonder why no team was willing to go past 4/48
Really? You don’t think anyone is going to offer Asdrubal more than 2 years? And you think that Headley and Cabrera aren’t going to get a better salary than 10 mil/year?
And that Hanley contract. I’d be shocked if he got less than something around 8 years @ 160 million. Esecially after what Cano got last year.
who’s giving it to him?
Yankees: ~6 years, 110 million
I really think the Yankees are out this year on a big FA contract after last winter’s spending spree, so I don’t see that as a match.
Well, the Yankees and Dodgers are the two that come to mind first. He would be a massive upgrade for the Yankees at either SS or 3rd.
The Red Sox could add him and play him at whatever position Xander isn’t playing. Even a couple a finge teams, the Brewers and Marlins, who have black holes at SS and could be looking to really make a push could go hard on him.
Cano’s prior 3 yrs were like 19 war, Hanley’s about 11. I think Hanley appears too inconsistent to warrant such a huge deal. I think he’ll get less than many think he will.
No way he only gets $16MM aav for 5 years though. Sure he won’t approach Cano’s deal, but you think he will get 1/3 of the money?
You are seriously undervaluing people.
I made the calls on these. You can do the same. Step right up.