Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 2 of 10

by
October 14, 2014

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for some shortstops, some third basemen, and at least one shortstop who’s probably a third baseman.

Other Players: Emilio Bonifacio / Michael Cuddyer / Adam LaRoche / Russell Martin / Mark Reynolds.

Asdrubal Cabrera (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Cabrera:

  • Has averaged 598 PA and 1.7 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.7 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.8 WAR in 616 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 1.8 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-29 season.
  • Made $10.0M in 2014, as part of deal signed in April of 2012.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Cabrera.

***

Chase Headley (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Headley:

  • Has averaged 610 PA and 5.1 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 5.0 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 4.4 WAR in 531 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 3.9 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-31 season.
  • Made $10.5M in 2014, as part of deal signed in January of 2014.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Headley.

***

Jed Lowrie (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Lowrie:

  • Has averaged 538 PA and 2.6 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.9 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.9 WAR in 566 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 2.4 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-31 season.
  • Made $5.3M in 2014, as part of deal signed in January of 2014.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Lowrie.

***

Aramis Ramirez (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding A. Ramirez:

  • Has averaged 504 PA and 3.0 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.6 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 2.1 WAR in 531 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 1.8 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-37 season.
  • Made $16.0M in 2014, as part of deal signed in December of 2011.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for A. Ramirez.

***

Hanley Ramirez (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding H. Ramirez:

  • Has averaged 505 PA and 3.8 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 4.5 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 3.4 WAR in 512 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 3.3 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-31 season.
  • Made $16.0M in 2014, as part of deal signed in May of 2008.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for H. Ramirez.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

40 Comments
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Andrew Follow the Money Friedman
9 years ago

AsCab: 2/20M to play 2B in either the Bronx or to stay in DC
Headley: 3/30M to play 3B for the ChiSox
Lowrie: 3/33M to play mostly SS (Oakland or LAD)
ARam: stays with Brewers (mutual option)
HanRam: 5/80M – if he leaves the Dodgers, could see the Marlins as the surprise team there.

0
Andrew Follow the Money Friedman
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

actually no way Oakland goes that high for Lowrie.

and where is Drew? I figure he most likely stays with the Yanks.

0
J
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

No way Headley signs for that little $.

The dude is projected for a 4 WAR season.

3
Andrew Follow the Money Friedman
9 years ago
Reply to  J

largely off of defense tho.

0
J
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

So what?

Defense or no, 4 WAR players at age 30 don’t sign for 10 million a year. Someone will offer him more years and higher AAV.

1
Andrew Follow the Money Friedman
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

maybe.

-1
Unthought_Known
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

Defense isn’t nearly as lucrative as offense. I agree that $10MM is light, but I don’t think he’ll be paid nearly as much as a 4 WAR hitting-heavy player. Michael Bourn got $12MM/year when he was a year younger than Headley, and he was coming off of a 6 WAR season.

2
Will
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

“Defense or no, 4 WAR players at age 30 don’t sign for 10 million a year. Someone will offer him more years and higher AAV.”

Russell Martin did. So did Yunel Escobar, JJ Hardy and Martin Prado, all of whom are pretty decent comps.

0
J
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

Those are pretty good comps actually. But still, if Headley signed a 3 year deal I’d expect it to be more in the 40-50 range.

I’m predicting something in the Jhonny Peralta range 4 years and ~50-55 mil.

I’d rather have Headley on that deal than overpay for HanRam

0
J
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

Good point on Bourn as well. I think everyone was surprised at the amount of his deal. From what I remember he was seeking ~ 100 million deal. He had a career year and had a solid track record of consistent 4+ WAR seasons prior. And I thought speed based players projected to age more gracefully than typical players. I get that teams pay a premium for offensive value over anything else, but Bourn still seemed way undervalued.

Obviously that deal hasn’t worked out. Gotta wonder why no team was willing to go past 4/48

0
BenRevereDoesSteroids
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

Really? You don’t think anyone is going to offer Asdrubal more than 2 years? And you think that Headley and Cabrera aren’t going to get a better salary than 10 mil/year?

And that Hanley contract. I’d be shocked if he got less than something around 8 years @ 160 million. Esecially after what Cano got last year.

-1
Andrew Follow the Money Friedman
9 years ago
Reply to  BenRevereDoesSteroids

who’s giving it to him?

1
a eskpert
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

Yankees: ~6 years, 110 million

-1
Andrew Follow the Money Friedman
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

I really think the Yankees are out this year on a big FA contract after last winter’s spending spree, so I don’t see that as a match.

-1
BenRevereDoesSteroids
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

Well, the Yankees and Dodgers are the two that come to mind first. He would be a massive upgrade for the Yankees at either SS or 3rd.

The Red Sox could add him and play him at whatever position Xander isn’t playing. Even a couple a finge teams, the Brewers and Marlins, who have black holes at SS and could be looking to really make a push could go hard on him.

0
Andrew Follow the Money Friedman
9 years ago
Reply to  BenRevereDoesSteroids

Cano’s prior 3 yrs were like 19 war, Hanley’s about 11. I think Hanley appears too inconsistent to warrant such a huge deal. I think he’ll get less than many think he will.

2
Lazer_Town
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

No way he only gets $16MM aav for 5 years though. Sure he won’t approach Cano’s deal, but you think he will get 1/3 of the money?

-1
Lazer_Town
9 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Follow the Money Friedman

You are seriously undervaluing people.

1
Andrew Follow the Money Friedman
9 years ago
Reply to  Lazer_Town

I made the calls on these. You can do the same. Step right up.

-1