Contract Crowdsourcing 2015-16: Day 1 of 15
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2015-16 free-agent market.
Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them catchers.
Alex Avila (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Avila:
- Has averaged 352 PA and 1.0 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 1.3 WAR per 450 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 0.3 WAR in 219 PA in 2015.
- Is projected to record 2.3 WAR per 450 PA**.
- Is entering his age-29 season.
- Made $5.4M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January of 2014.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.
**Prorated version of final updated 2015 Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Avila.
Chris Iannetta (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Iannetta:
- Has averaged 363 PA and 1.8 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 2.3 WAR per 450 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 0.5 WAR in 317 PA in 2015.
- Is projected to record 2.1 WAR per 450 PA**.
- Is entering his age-33 season.
- Made $5.5M in 2015, as part of deal signed in October 2012.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.
**Prorated version of final updated 2015 Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Iannetta.
Dioner Navarro (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Navarro:
- Has averaged 326 PA and 1.6 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 2.2 WAR per 450 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 0.5 WAR in 192 PA in 2015.
- Is projected to record 1.5 WAR per 450 PA**.
- Is entering his age-32 season.
- Made $5.0M in 2015, as part of deal signed in December 2013.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.
**Prorated version of final updated 2015 Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Navarro.
Geovany Soto (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Soto:
- Has averaged 160 PA and 0.8 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 2.2 WAR per 450 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 1.1 WAR in 210 PA in 2015.
- Is projected to record 1.0 WAR per 450 PA**.
- Is entering his age-33 season.
- Made $1.5M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.
**Prorated version of final updated 2015 Steamer projections available here.
Click here to estimate years and dollars for Soto.
Matt Wieters (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Wieters:
- Has averaged 324 PA and 1.5 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 2.1 WAR per 450 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 1.0 WAR in 282 PA in 2015.
- Is projected to record 2.2 WAR per 450 PA**.
- Is entering his age-30 season.
- Made $8.3M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015.
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.
**Prorated version of final updated 2015 Steamer projections available here.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Oh my.
Kiley McDaniel has joined the Braves as assistant director of baseball operations:
http://www.myajc.com/news/sports/baseball/former-catcher-ted-simmons-among-braves-scouting-h/nn2BY/
WOW. Kind of a nice feather in the FG cap. Hope that the info he was providing here can be picked up by someone else. Was a great niche he was filling here.
Weird that the Kiley is mentioned last, as that’s the biggest hire. But I guess he didn’t play 30 years ago…
This is the greatest mix of players, since it is a subtle reminder that on paper Weiters is not really that much better than those other guys, but i am going to wager that the other 4 get under 15m if they sign in the 3-4 year range, it not much much less- and weiters will end up with Russell Martin money
i think there’s a better chance Wieters signs a pillow contract than something like what Martin got.
Not sure that a 30 y/o catcher is going to take a pillow contract. If I’m not mistaken, he’s a Boras client. I think he’ll get 5/90, and even that will be about a $50 million discount off the asking price..
Kershankshaw you’re absolutely right. Wieters has already been worth $112.8 million over 3,000 plate appearances, which is about 5 years playing time, so you’re at 5/112 before inflation, or about 5/140 after.
Russell Martin money?? Martin had over 11 fWar the 3 seasons prior to free agency, while Wieters has 4.5… or 9 to 2 if you look at just the 2 immediately preceding years. I’ll be shocked if Wieters gets any more than 3/30M.
do you smell that smell? what the hell is that smell? a very offensive and rougned odor indeed.
(notgraphs and oranges 4 sell)
I look at those numbers and ages and I see: “backup catcher”.
Wieters aside, those are mostly aging defrocked starters. There’s a lot of money in baseball but is there enough money floating around to give these guys more than mid 7-digit two year deals?
Boras is going to need all his Jedi mind powers to get Wieters a big deal.
I wonder who is desperate enough for that…
He is plausibly the best available catcher and teams need catchers. I could see him and one or two others get overpaid, but this is a pretty ugly group (not as ugly as third base, though).
yeah this.
Uh, Carson, did you forget someone?
Catcher day is always the day I just go through and pick random numbers.
4 backups and an almost was. Not a pretty group.
I’ve got Wieters at 3/30. Wouldn’t be shocked to see some team overshoot that but since catching is such a crapshoot is there really that much of a downside of going into the season with a league average (relatively) low cost catcher like what AJ Ellis will pull if he hits FA?
No brainer that someone will go over 3/30, it only takes one….
I got 4/80 with a vesting option on games played.