Contract Crowdsourcing 2018-19: Ballot 8 of 7
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2018-19 free-agent market.
Below are links to (what are likely) the last six ballots for this year’s free agents — all of them, in this case, players featuring some kind of option or opt-out. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. Projected WAR figures from final update of 2018 Steamer forecast. NOTE: there will also be an eighth installment featuring players, such as Cole Hamels and Clayton Kershaw, with opt-outs and options
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Ballot 8 of 7! What a wonderful Friday surprise
Am I the only one who thinks that the most likely scenario is that Kershaw opts out, and he winds up landing another deal that pays him $30M a year for 7 years? So basically, the same contract he has, except extended over a longer period of time?
I also think that the only reason that makes sense for a team is that if you want to win now, because I do not like the idea of signing players with back trouble to $200M contracts.
Idk that I can see him getting 7 years, and therefore I don’t think he’ll opt out. If he were to, I think his best case is to slightly upgrade his AAV, but still not get more than 4-5 years. Depending on the years, I could see the AAV jumping up between $35mil-$40mil (the shorter the contract, the higher the AAV). Still would lean toward us never finding out.
No way Kershaw will opt out, with his injury issues, because he could never improve his contract. Besides, staying with the Dodgers gives him the best chance to win.
I think Kershaw might opt for a slightly lower AAV in exchange for years, depending on his confidence in his health, but seven years is a lot. I guessed 5 at $30M, but I’d also predict he won’t opt out at all.
I don’t think there’s any way he gets that over seven years. I could see him getting $30M/5, but even that seems tough since you’re probably expecting him to miss about a season of games in that stretch and you have to factor in some decline. I’d almost be tempted to say $25-28M.
I wonder if he could get a big deal if he included a big multi-tiered team option. Something like $160M/5 with a $25M buyout after 3 and a mutual option after 4 that includes a $15M buyout on the team’s side.
If he follows a normal aging curve, that buyout in year three would work out okay for both parties. If he falls off quickly, he’ll make more than he would trying to become a free agent in two years but the team is only on the hook for $96M instead of a whole lot more. If he stays awesome for several more years, he gets a lot of money for on a team that gets his performance, and he can opt out for one last 2-3 year deal at age 35.
You, Sad Trombone, who usually makes well thought out and cogent comments, are not the person that one would expect to make such a statement. I think the answer to your query is: Yes, you are the only one who thinks Kershaw opts out, very unlikely in itself, and the thought of some team paying a deteriorating back $210M seems far-fetched. Now it isn’t quite as bizarre if the Yankees offered $120M for 3 years, still bizarre but not as much so.
You think he’s not going to opt out? And you think that someone isn’t going to pay him an unholy sum of money even though it’s obviously a bad deal to give $30M a year to a guy with back problems? I think both of those things are quite likely. But it appears I am in the minority.
The deal that I think makes the most sense would be a 2-year extension from LA doubling (or nearly) the terms of the final two years of his current deal. Because that makes the most sense to me, I am inclined to say I think it may be most likely, but that might be betting too heavily on rational actors operating on each side of the equation.
I think he will opt out and for sure he will end up with a deal for $30-35 million per year, perhaps again with an opt out. The question is what the length will be. I’d put 5 years on the low end and seven on the high end, and I landed on 6 years. I said $35 million per year, which assumes no opt out. I think if he wants an opt out after 3 years, it will be $30 million per year.
When will the ballots close and we are able to see the results? *anxiously waiting to fill newfound baseball void*