Contract Crowdsourcing 2023-24: Ballot 3 of 11
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2024 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for eight of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of outfielders.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
I think Bellinger and Snell’s contracts will age as well as spoiled milk and imo will be the biggest bust contracts long term of the offseason.I think Bellinger and Boras will look at the contract Nimmo got and get some team to top it.
I dunno. I think if, say, the Marlins got Bellinger at 5/$135ish, it might be a great deal for both sides. And the Yankees might be desperate enough to overpay for a CF and make the whole thing moot (they once employed his father, which might loosen some emotional pursestrings from ol Steinbrenner; hey, don’t blame me for inheritance).
Snell is a tough evaluation. He can be dominant in stretches but walks too many guys…but then you see him put it together when he’s healthy for long enough and it’s not hard to buy in (especially with a team that can play him to his strengths). I know it’s a weird fit on the surface, but he might thrive in LA (who, I’m told, could use starting pitching and has some experience with him)
I think bellinger’s getting a lot more years and dollars than that
I looked at the Nimmo deal and thought something like that was a possibility but ultimately went with a shorter deal at a higher AAV (5/150) with an early opt out (year 2?) because I don’t think either the player or the team has a ton of incentive to go long term.
If Bellinger goes bust, his age isn’t gonna matter. And if the bounce back is real, he’s gonna want another crack at the market. I also bet he stays with the Cubs.
If you think Bellinger’s contract is going to be in the same continent as Nimmo’s you’re dreaming. I put him down for 7 years at $40 million a year, $280 million total, but I could easily see the Yankees topping $300 million if they decide they absolutely need a left handed bat and are worried somebody else is going to snatch him up. Other than Ohtani, he’s the only impact bat available. Hitters being in limited supply, his market is going to go sky high. Pretend 2020-2022 never happened.