Contract Crowdsourcing 2022-23: Ballot 1 of 11

by
October 28, 2022
© Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2022-23 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. And new this year, if there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2023 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for eight of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of infielders, some of whom occasionally see time in the outfield.





 

Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.

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Ryanmember
1 year ago

I feel like I have a poor anchor for what most of these might look like

I gave Abreu 3×15
Bell 4×15 (Feel like this might be a bit ambitious)
Belt 2×12
Carpenter 1x4M
Drury 2×4.5M
Frazier 3×12
Gurriel 1×5
Mancini 2×10

Which ones am I most wrong about?

1
tyke
1 year ago
Reply to  Ryan

i dont see anyone giving belt 2 years giving his awful season and inability to stay healthy. i think he is a year-to-year guy now until he hangs them up.

8
Ryanmember
1 year ago
Reply to  tyke

You might be right. My defence on that one is probably some team looking at 2020-21 and seeing 550 PAs, a wRC+ in the 160s and 5.4 WAR and going past a year. The health might make me a liar though

0
David Klein
1 year ago
Reply to  Ryan

Adam Frazier isn’t getting a three year deal coming off putting up a 84 wRC+ and 1.1 war. I could see Mancini and Belt getting one year deals with an option for a second year.

1
Francoeursteinmember
1 year ago
Reply to  Ryan

I think Frazier for sure. I can’t see teams being comfortable giving him a multi-year deal after his rough season. I think Carpenter will get more; he showed real swing changes and should command at least double what you predicted on a 1 year deal. I think Drury will command more than a 4.5m AAV; multi-position guys with average to slightly above offensive production are valuable. I think Abreu will get a higher AAV but maybe less years? I could see him going back to Chicago on a 2 year/$35 deal with an option for a 3rd year.

0
Uncle Spikemember
1 year ago
Reply to  Ryan

I was lower than you in almost every case, save Carpenter. I’m sure I’m way off but biggest discrepancies is I only gave Bell 2 x $10M and Frazier 1 x $3.5M

0
Sportszillamember
1 year ago
Reply to  Ryan

I think you gave too many years to Bell and maybe Abreu. Maybe Drury gets a multi-year deal but I think everyone else is on a one-year (or at most some kind of club or vesting option for a second).

I also would be astonished if Adam Frazier even got half that yearly value on a one-year deal. Yes, maybe he was hurt by playing in Seattle but he was not good last year and while the second base market isn’t great, I just don’t see him having many suitors at all.

0
TKDCmember
1 year ago
Reply to  Ryan

I think Drury will get a full time starting role and a salary fitting that better, around $10-12 million. And I think a team will give him an extra year.

I had Gurriel as minor league deal.

0