Contract Crowdsourcing 2021-22: Ballot 1 of 11
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for eight of this year’s free agents — in this case, the winter’s marquee shortstops, as well as three catchers.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Just a heads up: this renders very poorly in dark mode.
Simien bets on himself, has a monster season, and could still end up sweating through the offseason because he’s 31 and the FA class is stacked and he’s the oldest of the premier shortstops.
I bet he’ll still do very well, if not nearly in the Correa-Seager range. I think I’d rather have him than Trevor Story. At any rate, his bet on himself should pay off handsomely.
It should. But you know with baseball’s labor rules and the modern knowledge of decline, betting on yourself sure doesn’t have the potential payoff that maybe it once did. I still think he clears $100 million, but he’ll have to wait until at least February to get it.
I have him signing a shorter contract than Seager or Correa or Story but with a higher AAV. I don’t think he breaks 100 million but he gets close on either a two or three year deal.
I really don’t see it. Why would Semien even consider a 2-3 year deal unless the money was Bauer-esque?
Correa is likely to get Lindor money so you’re talking nearly $35M AAV on a 10-year deal. I have Seager behind that.
Given the extensive history of players preferring longer-term over shorter-term contracts I think a minimum of 4 years is likely for Semien, with DJ’s 6 year, $90M deal as a recent comp which I think Semien clears pretty easily even at 5 years.
I’would argue that aging curves are becoming less important with the advances made in taking care of athletes bodies.
I don’t think the data bears this out. There is some indication that players are being more productive at a younger age, but that might be usage patterns rather than fundamental physical readiness.
“Taking care of athletes bodies”
🧐🧐🧐
Seems that certain sports with certain lax testing protocols I guess coincidentally have athletes that are taking care of their bodies better.
I just hope the Jays can run it back with him. And if not, I’ll always be glad of the one year (likely career year) that they got with him.
Hardest one to estimate! I could see him getting anywhere from 3/60 to 5/150 (and yes, that’s a silly range and indicates how confused I am!).
I think both Correa and Seager are looking at 10 to 12 year contracts, but I’m not seeing any $300M deals. If a team really wants one, there are enough other options on the market (the other one, Story, Baez) that I don’t think we’re going to see teams bid like crazy just to get one. My best guess is that Correa gets about $260M to go to Detroit, and Seager gets about $200M to either stay with the Dodgers or go to the Yankees.
I think that Baez and Story are going to have a harder time finding the contracts they want. Baez produces but he’s got such a scary profile, I think a lot of teams are going to be scared of giving him a contract since he lives very much on the edge. Story has a much more consistent profile but the results weren’t there last year, plus he’ll have a QO. Their market is also going to be hurt by the fact that teams that they’ve been associated with recently don’t exactly need a shortstop, with the Cubs and Rockies rebuilding and the Mets needing other infield help. Who else is looking for a shortstop aside from the Tigers and Yankees? Are the Twins buying? The Cardinals? The Rangers? The Phillies? The Angels? Hard to see teams excited to pay up $100M or anything close to that, even if they would be at least somewhat interested.
Semien’s not exactly a direct replacement for Correa or Seager because he’s clearly better defensively at second base, but you can imagine that some teams will see him as a shortstop. He definitely gets a QO, but he makes a lot of sense for a handful of teams at 2B including returning to the Blue Jays. I think 5 years, $100M makes a lot of sense.
Correa has a theoretical shot at 10 years. Honestly there are some similarities between him and Machado: inconsistent year to year, obviously very talented. The Machado deal is looking pretty good to me so far. Correa is a year older than Machado, so I gave him 9 years. But I’d be not at all shocked if he got 10 and $300 million.
Obviously this all depends on the CBA, but I’m over on all of your predictions, so I’ll be interested to see how this all goes. I’m guessing Correa at 10/300, Seager at something similar (at least 250), Story like 150-175, Semien around 120-125 and Baez around 100. Caveat that I could see Baez doing the 1 year prove it deal. I see Story’s underlying metrics (batted balls and plate discipline) looking pretty normal so I think that outweighs his somewhat down results. With Baez I just think the defense is strong enough to support a big contract even if you expect volatile offensive results.
As to teams, I think there will be plenty of market to accommodate everyone. The teams you mentioned all look good, but I think there are probably even more teams that could be candidates because basically any of these guys could move down the defensive spectrum to 2nd or 3rd rather easily. So, maybe Red Sox in any number of scenarios – one of these guys plays 2nd or they move Bogaerts to 3rd and Devers to 1st. I could see the Dodgers being an interesting landing spot for Semien at 2nd assuming they lose Seager. Giants for a 2nd or 3rd baseman? Astros. Mets still probably need a 2B or 3B. White Sox for a 2B make some sense. Blue Jays, too, since Bichette is a non-ideal SS and they don’t have 2nd or 3rd set.
I actually love the Mariners for someone at 2nd or to shift Crawford to 2nd (not ideal, but you’d do it if that were the difference between getting someone like Correa or not). I think it would make a whole bunch of sense for them to pick up a star at star prices now while you’ve got a lot of cheap regulars here or on their way, i.e. Kelenic, Crawford, Raleigh, Gilbert, J-Rod, Kirby, Hancock.
I agree mostly with you; but I can’t see a team giving Baez $100 million. He seems to be about as risky a player as possible going into his 30s (in 2023). He could also totally eff himself going the 1-year rout.
I don’t think Crawford is going anywhere. I’ve seen some people talk about Semien to the Mariners because he’d be a great fit at 2B. Maybe, but I’m not sure Dipoto really wants to hand out a big contract and give away a pick. I would, however, see the Mariners as a dark horse pick for Javier Baez. He’s weird and so you can see someone like Dipoto thinking he’d be a good fit.
As for the others, it looks like you’re coming in at about 25% more than me on Seager and Semien, maybe a bit less than 25% on Correa and a bit more on Story. I just don’t think teams are that excited to spend at that level. You can never rule it out but I think there are too many teams who have decided it’s not the right time. There’s going to be a contentious CBA negotiation, and a lot of the big spenders from past offseasons seem very worried about the luxury tax (less so for the Dodgers and Yankees, more so for the Red Sox, Phillies, Astros, Angels, and Padres) or are in rebuilding mode (Nationals, Cubs). Oh, and the Mets will give up a first round pick if they sign someone on a QO, so any of the biggest names are no-go for them. I just don’t see it, but they’re too good for the market to completely collapse (and after last offseason when the owners cried poor and it was a normal offseason anyway, I don’t think they’ll ever stop spending entirely).
How is Correa not getting $300 million? There are other options, sure, but none are as good as him. The other two SS’s in his class just got $340 million.+.
Think of it this way: how many teams would jump at Correa at 10/260? Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers are all good possibilities. Someone will go higher to get him.
I’m sorry, but Correa is not in the class of (pre-2021) Lindor. Lindor was consistently better and healthier. The comparison to Tatis just isn’t worth commenting on. I think a lot of teams would view Seager or Semien as better players. Semien is obviously way older, but the opportunity to possibly get him on a shorter, high AAV deal, could be enticing. Further, even if you say Correa is the best shortstop, there is nothing written in stone that says the best shortstop automatically gets to break the record for free agent contract.
Lindor has been declining since *2019*.
He no longer runs since his injuries and his contact has been going down since 2019.
2020 counts.
His defense is still good but the bat? Not anywhere near Correa or Seager or even Story. If he were a FA in this group he’d be looking for a pillow deal.
“Since 2019”
So, for 60 games before he got his contract.
Or are you including a season that basically matches or beats every season of Correa’s career except for this one in your “decline” conclusion?
Obviously Lindor would be treated differently if he hadn’t signed pre-2021, but that is completely irrelevant to this exercise (and to the extent it matters, it would only hurt Correa’s prospects).
Look closer at his full profile: he hasn’t been the same since the leg injuries.
And look at his 2019 splits. Second half, lefties ate him alive. Last two months were as ugly as 2020. And his WC+ has been declining since 2018 which was his peak.
2019 he was okay; good overall but you could see the seeds of what has come since.
He’s just not the same player.
And yes, 2020 matters.
Especially because combined with late 2019and 2021 he now looks a lot more like he was originally projected to be as a propect; a glove first ss with some pop. His hitting looks like he is hunting balls he can hit for homers and little else. So power, yes. Defense yes. OBP walk heavy and baserunning not too good. Average bat, good glove.
Correa beats that. Seager beats it. Semien beats it. Even Story.
With the last two seasons on his back, what would you expect him to get as a FA? Ten years at $35?
I’m not saying he’s not playable. Just that he isn’t the same as he was earlier in his career and expecting a *big* bounce isn’t a bet most teams would make in * this* FA class. He needs at least a season at 2017 levels to stand in this class of SS.
I think he will not get $300M because there will not be a team willing to give him that much money. I do not believe any of those teams except for potentially the Yankees will pay that much for Correa. The Dodgers will try and retain Seager and if that fails they’ll probably turn to extending Trea Turner. The Red Sox and Angels do not want to be tax payers, the Cubs are rebuilding and probably want to see how Hoerner does at SS.
I think he’s probably comparable to how we thought of Lindor before this year, but they also overpaid Lindor, I think it was because they were afraid of losing him after trading for him. I also don’t see any team who is like the Mets who wants to make that type of a splash this offseason.
IIRC, I had:
Correa- 9years, $260M
Seager- 7 years, $200M
Semien- 5 years, $115M
Baez- 4 years, $90M
Story- 4 years, $100M
Also, both Vazquez and Barnhart have options. Given how terrible the catching options are on the FA market, I’d expect both to be exercised even if they wind up getting traded.
Yes, for Vazquez I guessed the amount of his option because I think it will be picked up. Did I do that right?
That’s what I did too.
I think it doesn’t count if the option is picked up!
Would be awfully surprised if the Barnhardt and Vazquez options aren’t picked up by their respective clubs.
You could bet your last dollar that the Red Sox aren’t going to let Vasquez get away. I expect an extension at around 3 at 10 per year.
Agree they’ll keep him but don’t think they’ll extend him right now. He’s 31 and coming off a rough year, and the Sox also have a few interesting catching prospects who could be ready soon (probably not, but maybe!).
I don’t see the catching prospects that you mention. Ronaldo Hernandez, not likely, Connor Wong, even less likely and nobody else can be seen with a telescope. Vasquez, even during this mediocre year, provides a positive WAR which, in today’s catching wasteland, isn’t bad. If a win is worth $8-9M the Red Sox would be wise to lock up a proven commodity.
A win isn’t worth $8-9M in practice, that figure is calculated as the average value of a win on the free agent market.
It’s not applied as an average in real life though, it’s more of an exponential curve where the first couple of wins are worth relatively less than each successive win. That’s why you see 1 WAR guys get like $4M at times.
It’s likely a little different with catchers potentially due to scarcity though.
Is the rule still no qualifying offer if traded mid-year? If yes, then Gomes is not eligible for a QO.
Death, taxes, and Fangraphs making a mistake on who can get a QO in the contract crowdsourcing exercise.
I kid, I kid, I love this and it’s a ton of work and it’d actually be shocking if there somehow weren’t an error. It’s a good thing you have the crowd here to help!
I think there is a decent chance that Story signs a deal that feels shockingly low to some people.
Both his offense and defense has been trending in the wrong direction in recent years
and he has an extreme home/away split compared to other recent ex-Rockies
(LeMahieu wrc+ 96/84
Arenado wrc+ 129/108
Story wrc+ 125/98)
Is that really extreme compared to Arenado’s? It’s 6 points of wrc+ difference…
I don’t think teams pay a ton of attention to the home/road split given the studies on the added difficulty of facing increased pitch movement at lower elevations after seeing flatter breaking stuff 50% of the time.
Well given that Arenado predictably had a more pedestrian offensive season this year (above-league average but not star-level), I don’t think that comp helps Story