Contract Crowdsourcing 2025-26: Ballot 1 of 12
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2025-26 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2026 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of position players, including the winter’s top free agent.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
I think Harrison Bader might be the hardest player to project. His 2025 performance would justify a $20M+ deal, but this was his first healthy year since…2018? And his first year as a good hitter since 2021.
I put down 2 years, $30M because between the Phillies, Angels, Royals, Yankees, Mets, and Tigers I think there’s enough demand for center fielders that someone will offer it to him. Bader is a better defender than either Bellinger or Grisham, and those are probably the only three decent options and he is probably the cheapest one.
I don’t think the Mets are going to sign him and probably not the Yankees either, but I assume the Mets will be in on Grisham and I assume the Yankees will bring back at least one of Bellinger and Grisham. Even if some of the Philies, Royals, Angels, and Tigers aren’t interested in Bader I bet two of them are and that one of them is willing to go to 2 / $30M.
I agree. I put down the same amount per year as you, but, 1 extra year:
3 years $45M.
Realmuto is another tough one. Definitely aging & not what he was, but, catching is so sparse. You also wonder if Philly overpays him to just come back.
I think catchers are really tough to gauge here, because they’re not really that good but when you look at the profiles of catchers that frequently get a lot of playing time
for competitive teams, it makes “replacement level” seem off. Realmuto is also not going to want to take a major pay cut and I think the Phillies will work something out with him on a short deal with a modest pay cut. I put 2/$35m.
I disagree on Bader. He was a babip monster this year. I don’t see how one year older he gets anything better than a modest raise on another one-year deal.
Bader’s .303 xwOBA agrees with you.
The top line numbers were good this year, but he ran a .360 babip and 27% K rate. The defensive numbers are trending down…I hope he does better, but I guessed a 1-year deal for Bader.
I put 2/18. He gets an annual raise, another year of security, and the team doesn’t break the bank.