Contract Crowdsourcing 2025-26: Ballot 2 of 12
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2025-26 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2026 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of pitchers, including some of the best hurlers to reach free agency this winter.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
I think Cease is going to be looking for a $180M+ deal and he’s going to have to settle for something like 2 years, $50M with an opt out because I don’t see anyone giving him that.
I have a feeling he’s looking for something in the ballpark of Fried (like $200M+), and that seems extremely unlikely.
Why? I don’t think he will get Fried’s contract (I was much higher on Fried than most, suggesting 7/$175m, and being called crazy by Braves fans). However, why would he not get into that ballpark?
I feel like he’s too volatile, and his relative lack of command makes him a risk for aging well. I could very well be wrong, but that’s my gut take.
I think Fried was a year older but he had a recent history of running ERAs lower than his peripherals and Cease has a recent history of running them higher. I don’t think that’s anything to worry about IMO, usually that’s just because of the defense behind them, but teams will balk at $180M because of that.
I don’t know, how many of these guys have put up at least 3.4 fWAR for the last 5 consecutive seasons? He’s stayed healthy and has had consistently good (not great) underlying metrics. I might give him 5 years over anyone besides Framber, and I could see at least 1 team going to 6 years. I said 6/$150.
The Giants, for example, could make good use of a workhorse starter whose biggest problem is lefty HRs.
I also had 5/150 for Cease.
I think probably Framber, Cease, and Bieber are all going to get offers in that $115-$140M range. I think Ranger Suarez might get more, but maybe that’s just because I like Ranger Suarez and not because teams do. If that’s the case he’ll be in the same range as the other 3.
I don’t think Bieber will be happy in that range. If he’s 100% back and healthy he should be looking for $200M+. That’s why I think he takes the high AAV with an opt out.
I had 6 yrs, $162M
A lot of these guys I’d normally think 2 years(something with a player option so they can prove they’re better and hit free agency again) but with the looming lockout I think a lot of these guys will want 3 years deals so they’re not free agents during a lockout
I think a lot of these will be shorter deals that include player options that make any “guess” using this format hard to judge.
I think this is the way Woodruff and Bieber go: a 2-year deal with a player option after year 1.
I think you’re right about Woodruff, but I think Bieber is going to get paid. It doesn’t exactly make sense but he looks sharp.
I think Cease signs the Boras special 3-year, high AAV, opt-outs contract.
Gallen most likely accepts a QO. Makes too much sense for both sides.
Suarez signs something like the Rodón contract, I would guess? Valdez could get similar or higher AAV for only four years.
Agreed on Gallen. And I think the Woodruff option gets picked up. Valdez I have no idea. He seemed to give up at the end of the season, but maybe that’s unfair and other teams won’t see it that way.
Woodruff has a mutual option and will take home $10M if it is declined. I am pretty sure he will decline it.
The Brewers should probably issue him a QO and he should probably take it. But the Brewers are probably reluctant to spend $22M on a frequently injured starter. I think he hits FA without a QO and signs a Montas-type deal with the Mets.
I swear I didn’t read this before commenting
Not sure if Woodruff gets 2 years at his desired AAV given the injuries. Might be a 1 year deal over the QO, maybe $25mm.
Fair about the buyout. We’ll see if the Brewers go for the QO.
I don’t think Woodruff accepts that. He gets $10m regardless. So he would essentially be accepting a 1/$10m deal and I’m sure he thinks he can do better than that. The Brewers also probably won’t extend the QO, because he could take it and then they’d be paying him $32m for one dicey year. A large market team could afford that risk. The Brewers can’t.
::scrolling down comments:: I wonder if anyone else is wondering whether Gallen will take the QO and…ah, my people!
I have Gallen on the (Giants) Rodon contract but considered him accepting the QO too
Woodruff was the weirdest one for me. I think he works something out with the Brewers to avoid the opt out where he ends up getting more money than the Brewers are comfortable with and it has a weird structure where he is likely to get traded as long as he doesnt blow out his arm again
I’m so bad at this
I have:
Cease 6yrs, $162M
Bieber- 2 yrs $60M (would assume there is also a player option to opt out after 26)
Valdez- 6 yr, $200M
Suarez 7 yr, $196M
Gallen- accept QO
Mahle- 3 yr $72M
Kelly- 2 yr $44M
Woodruff- same as Bieber
2 hard ones for me:
Littell- 3 yrs $51M- This one was tough to gauge.
Michael King- 5 yr $160M- He was by far the hardest one. He’s good, but, missed most of 2025. less track record of success, but, also less mileage on his arm.
I think King and Woodruff are in the same boat. They’re so good when they are healthy but they have been healthy so rarely.
I don’t think King can top $100M on this deal. I think if you swapped King and Bieber I would agree with this.
(I also think that probably all of the other pitchers are going to get offered one fewer year than what you have projected, and that as a result there will be more short-term opt-out type deals, but I don’t know which ones)