Contract Crowdsourcing: Juan Uribe
I legitimately have no idea what to expect for Juan Uribe’s next contract. The results should be pretty interesting.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I legitimately have no idea what to expect for Juan Uribe’s next contract. The results should be pretty interesting.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Sorry to be a stickler, but speaking as a market researcher, best practice is to have the top item of each drop down menu be a “please select one” option that doesn’t get recorded, or registers an error message. Although one probably wouldn’t answer this, how do you seperate the “1 year at 1 million” answers from false submits?
125 entries in so far, and there are no 1 year, $1 million submissions.
Seems likely this reply has initiated several 1/1 submits just to spite Dave
Like NPR, Fangraphs tends to have less retards 😀
“‘fewer’ retards”
Although perhaps you were being ironic?
lesser
Freshershest
ironical
Sounds like discrimination to me… now that you’ve blown the lid of this, we’re going to have to contact the ADA and actively attempt to increase our IQ diversity.
Dead right, chumpchange. Thanks for the correction.
Is there any place to find all the crowdsourcing articles and/or results together? Can we create such a place if none exists?
I was looking for a tag for all Top Ten prospect lists together, also. They don’t seem to tag, here, like other places.
i am guessing the results will come in at 2/4, but i feel strongly that this might be the crowdsourcing we are even more wrong on than we might be on manny
2/4 was my pick too.
I’m guessing 2/4 as well.
He’s 31. He doesn’t really have a skill set that anybody has ever fallen in love with but might age well. He averages about 1.8 WAR/162 games played so he is a little below MLB average but can give solid to plus defense at 3 infield spots. I don’t know if he still has a rep for drifting mentally at times like he did in Chicago and Colorado. I said 2/7 but he could get anything from 1/2 to 3/15 and I wouldn’t be too surprised.
We’re close, I guessed 2 @ $6M. It’s a big jump, but I think he benefits from the lack of viable alternatives and the Giants gratititude and desperation for a halfway decent SS. I’m not saying that he signs with the Giants, just that they’ll drive up his final price.
UGH. I’m an idiot. I meant 7 million over 2 years, not 14 million over 2 years. I also meant 3 years at 5 million per in my comment. Sorry for skewing the results a little.
I know that Peralta is younger but I don’t see how Uribe ends up with less than Jhonny just got.
This was my thought when I voted 2 years at 6 per
Me too oh my gawsh!
Holy Toledo!
Thanks grammar guy!
Peralta is a good and recent comp. Peralta seems to walk a bit more, go deep a bit less and maybe not quite as valuable with the glove. The dollars and years should be pretty similar. I initially thought 2/8, but after a bit more research think 2/6 is a likely outcome. I hope he resigns with the Giants – they don’t have any shortstops in their system who’ll be ready to start in the next 2 years.
ye of little faith… I’m guessing Brandon Crawford is ready earlier than most think, possibly by the end of this coming season.
Crawford strikes out way too much for a guy with essentially no power. Unless he learns how to hit better, his glove won’t make it past Fresno. We’ll see – I saw a lot of him last spring and was not particularly impressed.
Yeah, I went 2 at 5 per, but could easily be 6. Would have gone w/ 5.5 if it were an option.
Same here
Wow, I’m way off. I put in 2 years, 10 million per year. Just looking at WAR, he’s been worth 6WAR the last two years combined…I thought that giving him a expected future 2.5 WAR contribution was fair and the short contract was to show that he was undervalued.
And somebody’s got to be dumb enough to panic and throw some money at a guy who was practically flawless at 3B throughout the playoffs.
I’m also very unsure of what to put on this one. Given his great recent performance, excellent defense, and ability to play many positions- I could see him going for 2/8 or 3/6. On the other hand, we’re talking about a guy with a so-so track record who completely tore his bicep which he has to rehab from I assume. I could see him having to settle for a 2/4 or a 1/6. That’s a pretty major range: 6m-18m in total contract value?
Renteria is the one that tore his bicep muscle, not Uribe. Uribe’s only injury was a bruised hand that he played through during the playoffs. That’s not going to affect him going forward.
Ahhhh. I misheard the announcing in the WS then. That simplifies things greatly. Thanks for the correction.
I put 2/6. I think his performance gets him paid, but teams are still wary, especially any that pay attention to OBP.
24 home runs last year = 3/8 (actually it = 3*8 but whatever)
Looking at what’s out there in the terms of shortstops I think you guys are saying for the most part what he should be paid not what he will get paid.
Re-ups with the Giants at two years, $7M per season. Could very well see $6M instead, especially given the two 2/12 deals Sabean gave out last year to Freddy Sanchez and Mark DeRosa.
went with 2 years at $4MM per (could see 5 or 6 though). he is who he is. he had a decent 2009 and no one seemed interested, so he came to the Giants cheap. his 2010 was about the same as 2009 (better here, worse there, but in the same ballpark). His ISO was down, his BA was down, his OBP was down (but he increases his walk rate, so i blame that on BABIP), Ks were down, HRs up, his glove was apparently better (who knows though, based on a year’s sample of a guy that moves around a lot) but hiw wOBA was down. Also, while maybe an abberation (who knows) he hit into twenty freaking double plays last year. as a giants fan the idea of him and pablo next to each other in the order just made me constantly feel like a DP was gonna happen everytime (yeah, yeah, not very sabre friendly thinking there).
he has the WS pedigree, so that might get him a bump in pay, but he’s still Juan Uribe at the end of the day. if adam dunn only gets $10MM a year right now, why should Uribe be anywhere near his pay?
I would be surprised if the Giants offered more than an incentive laden 1 year/4m deal, with a second year team option for 5m (1m buyout), that could be vested on performance (500 PA).
Anything richer or longer (ie 2nd year guaranteed) is basically a panic move by Sabean. There is no excuse for paying Uribe a high premium for value as a utility man when your club has short-term payroll issues (Zito and Rowand contracts; Lincecum arb next year) and is returning Mark DeRosa and Emmanuel Burris, who between the two should cover every layer of depth Uribe provided last season.
The question whether the hypothetical production difference between Burris/Rohlinger/Crawford/(trade acquisition) and Uribe over the next two years is worth X millions and a sandwich pick (Uribe is Type B, is he not?) in the next draft? The contract i’ve outlined is where I draw the line as a Giants fan; anything above my number and I think the club is better off taking a chance on arm with the pick, giving the guys in the organization a chance, and dealing an arm (Sanchez) for a bat if necessary.
“The question whether the hypothetical production difference between Burris/Rohlinger/Crawford/(trade acquisition) and Uribe over the next two years is worth X millions and a sandwich pick (Uribe is Type B, is he not?) in the next draft?”
I disagree. Not that that’s irrelevant, but the bigger question is whether the difference between Uribe and the cheap alternatives is the difference between making and missing the playoffs. Considering that all the names you dropped are likely replacement level or worse, and the the Giants are in that high eighties/low nineties win range where each marginal W has a big impact on playoff chances, I’d say yes. It’s worth it to a team to spend an extra few millions now if it greatly increases their chance at playoff money down the road.
Mostly agree with this. The real key for the Giants at this point is not binding themselves to any long contract that would put them in a position where they can’t keep the pitching mostly intact going forward. There has to be money available after the 2011 season to do a deal with Lincecum, and after 2012 to Retain Cain.
I put 2/$5MM. I can’t see anyone paying more than that for a fat middle infielder. I could also see him getting 1/$6.5MM.
For the next set of contract crowdsourcing results, could you also show the 25% trimmed means as well? If many outliers (+2 standard deviations from the mean) exist, or if the distribution is not normal, a trimmed mean may be a better measure of central tendency than the median or full mean.
I think he gets something like 1 yr/3-4.25mil deal with an additional team option worth maybe 4-5 million and a 500k buyout. I simply cannot see any team overpaying for Juan Uribe, or any bidding war of sorts driving his price up to any extent…
I put 1 yr/3 mil when I voted.
eh, he had a better year in 2009 and apparently not much interest so he settled for the $3 mil from the SFG .
As a Giants fan i wouldn’t mind if they slight overpay on Uribe(and Huff) because of how much he’s already produced for them for the $4.5 mil. He’s hit some big home runs both years and to me looks like he’s good for 3-4 more even if he has to move to 3B.
i voted 2 years at $6 per but i think it might be $4 or $5 per after reading some opinions on this thread.
2/5.
I think the Giants will be willing to overpay because, at present, they have uncertainty at SS & 3B. Sandoval and DeRosa still have to be considered ?’s. Sandoval should be fine/serviceable. At any rate, Uribe covers both. Uncertainty @ 1B as well, but lots of movable pieces is an advantage for Sabean who once again has his word cut out for him.
When are the results going to be published? I think the ball has been dropped here.