Contract Crowdsourcing Results: Manny Ramirez
The results are in, and there’s more agreement about Manny’s potential payout this winter than I expected. For this one, since we gave people the option of putting in 0 years/0 dollars to project that he won’t sign this winter, I’ll break those out separately, and then the projected contract figures will only include those that think he will sign for some figure this winter.
Percentage of voters who think Manny will not sign this winter: 6.7%
Average length: 1.27 years
Average salary: $8.41 million
Median length: 1 year
Median salary: $8 million
Standard deviation, length: 0.48 years
Standard deviation, salary: $3.19 million
I was surprised that over 93% of the voters expected him to play next year. I would certainly put the odds at lower than that. I might even say that Manny following the Gary Sheffield path might be the more likely outcome, in my estimation. But you guys clearly disagree, and believe that teams will value the production more than the personality, even at age 39. Scott Boras certainly hopes you guys are correct.
In terms of length of contract, pretty much everyone agreed, going with either one or two years. A few brave souls thought he’d get three years, but they were a very small minority at 1.4% of the vote total. However, there was less agreement on the annual average value of the contract, with a standard deviation of over $3 million. 35 percent of the voters thought he would make more than $10 million per year, while 17 percent though he would have to settle for $5 million per year or less. As always, the votes centered around the median; however, that number was not the most popular selection. 129 people went with $10 million, as opposed to the 127 who went with $8 million. It’s essentially a tie, but the average was clearly pulled down more by folks on the low end than it was up by people on the high end.
So, one-year, $8 million for Manny Ramirez. If he didn’t have any off-the-field issues, I’d probably agree with that, based on his age and talent level. Given all of the extra things that come with Manny, though, and the abundance of DH options this winter, I’m not sure what team is going to make that offer. We shall see.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
“I was surprised that over 93% of the voters expected him to play next year.”
Yea, I imagine many voters were in the same boat I was. I thought to myself “Well, he’d probably come back for 1/8 (what I voted) and maybe as low as 1/5 + heavy incentives, but there’s a good chance no one will give that to him.”
I’d imagine if you had another poll “What is the chance many doesn’t resign?” you’d obviously get a different number than 7%. Probably 30-50.
Agreed. 93% saying he’ll play is much different than a 93% chance that he plays. Essentially it means that 93% of voters think that there’s at least a 50% chance that he plays.
Agreed, that is how I voted, is there a 50% chance Manny will receive a contract. I then dithered over whether there would be an achievable vesting or team option included. I don’t remember what I decided but I’d put the possibility of an option of some kind above 50%. I was thinking 1~10 or 2~17.5 seemed right to me.
Ruben Amaro must read fangraphs. Who else would give Manny three years?
An even worse GM in the same division as the Phils?
Bay RF+Ramirez LF+Santana’s career 0.87 GB/FB=hilarity for everyone except Mets fans.
The problem with using CrowdSource for a guy like Manny is the fact that he will probably be forced to take an incentive based contract. I voted for 1/$5m but in reality I would think that he could work something out that paid him as much as $10m based off health and performance incentives.
Manny is a poster-child for an incentive based contract. For guys like Crawford and Werth there will be no meaningful incentives.
I suspect he’ll get an incentive-laden offer for one year with a club option on a second year, and it’ll probably come from his current club, the White Sox. The White Sox can’t tell that their manager is an insufferable reprobate, so why would they notice Manny’s issues?
I think this might be another polling issue. It would have been better to ask, “Will Manny sign?” followed by, “If you think he will sign, how many years and how much?”
I think the structure pushed a lot of people towards choosing a contract.
Even better: Ask how likely is it that manny will sign — 0-100% likely. (see Manski, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1990)
Then proceed as you suggest.
Yea… polling issues around here are pretty commonplace…
How many voters thought Manny would net more than $10 million?
Hey, I picked the median. Woot!
I would sign Manny for 1yr 8m in a heartbeat. He’s a .375 wOBA at his worst. If he can pass a physical, 8m is a huge bargain.
If he’s healthy, not suspended, actually cares enough to come to the ballpark, and doesn’t hit like an actual 40 year old, then yes, 8mil is a bargain.
I’d hope that, with so many people on the A’s fansites agitating for pissing +$15M/year away on Carl Crawford, the idea that we could get Manny for a year at half that would be irresistibly appealing…
If Crawford doesn’t get 19.5 or more per year, I will be stunned.
Any contract he is offered will be close to what Vladimir Geuerrero was offered by Texas. I’m thinking around $6-7 million guaranteed with incentives based on playing time and possibly HRs or RBIs.
Manny needs to be forced to actually earn his paycheck, otherwise he will not last the season without frequent DL trips.
I thought you couldn’t offer incentives for performance, like HR and RBI?
You can’t, but that hasn’t stopped everyone from saying that’s what he’ll get.
Chance are if he plays, he hits. I think that’s what most people are implying.
My apologies. At least a games played or AB incentive would entice him to actually give a crap throughout an entire season.
Either way, IF he even gets a contract I still see him being placed on waivers by season end.
Yeah, but I’m pretty sure EVERYONE gets placed on waivers before season’s end.
I think after Dunn, Manny will be the most attractive DH option out there.
Dunn has repeatedly stated he does not want to DH.
Then Dunn is less likely to sign than Manny.
I suppose the Giants could sign him. If he wants to play the field he has to sign with an NL club because no self respecting AL club could justify using him in the field.
Not that all clubs are self-respecting…
More on the polling, It’s not so much an issue with the polling itself as it is with the conclusions drawn from the polling.
When Dave says, “I was surprised that over 93% of the voters expected him to play next year,” he’s incorrect.
Over 93% of voters chose a contract of higher value than zero when asked how much money Manny would sign for next year. We were never asked if we expected him to play. The question assumes he will play and asks how much and how many years. Only 7% of voters chose to “bypass” the question with a 0/0 answer.
I understand these are just fun polls, and I think Dave could be a little more conservative in the conclusions he’s drawing from them. I still enjoy them though.
I agree. The presentation of the poll and the resulting conclusions need work, but the exercise itself is very good.
I needed to create you a very little observation to finally say thanks once again for your spectacular basics you’ve provided above. It was quite extremely open-handed of you to offer publicly just what a lot of people would’ve sold for an electronic book to help make some money for themselves, most importantly since you could have tried it in case you considered necessary. Those tactics likewise worked to be the great way to know that someone else have the same keenness much like my very own to know the truth significantly more related to this problem. I believe there are thousands of more enjoyable instances up front for individuals that discover your website.