Cooperstown Notebook: The 2025 Progress Report, Part II

It’s been a big season for Manny Machado — a revival, as I termed it in June. After being hampered by tennis elbow in 2022 and ’23, then limited to DH duty in early ’24 while recovering from surgery to repair the extensor tendon in that troublesome right elbow, he’s played in all 132 games for the Padres, who ended the weekend tied for first place in the NL West with the Dodgers.

Along the way, Machado has collected some milestones. He clubbed his 350th home run, a two-run shot off the Giants’ Robbie Ray, on June 5, and he collected his 2,000th hit, an infield single off the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen, on July 7, the day after his 33rd birthday. By industry convention, based on a player’s age on June 30 of that season, Machado became just the 12th player to reach both milestones in his age-32 season or earlier, joining Hall of Famers Henry Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Mel Ott, and Frank Robinson, future Hall of Famers Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, and cautionary tale Alex Rodriguez. That makes him an apt choice to lead off this installment of my annual Hall of Fame progress series; I checked on pitchers and catchers last week, and will cover outfielders and unicorns next week.

For this exercise, I’ll be referencing bWAR for season and career totals, my JAWS metric, and the ZiPS rest-of-season projections, since one goal here is to provide perspective on where these players will stand at the end of the season, having banked a full complement of WAR instead of just 100-some games worth; these future candidates are already dealing with suppressed WAR totals from the 60-game 2020 season, though that hardly makes them the first to experience such scheduling limitations and career interruptions due to wars and strikes. I’m not predicting that every player here will eventually wind up enshrined or even suggesting that all will be worthy; in some cases I’m particularly pessimistic, but these are the top active candidates.

One aspect of these players’ progress that I’ll refer back to is something I discovered a couple years back: roughly three-quarters of the position players who have reached a 40-WAR peak score (best seven seasons, a.k.a. WAR7) have eventually been enshrined, making it a useful mid-career indicator. Inevitably some of the focus throughout this exercise is on the math required to improve those peak scores. There’s far more to these players’ cases, and to appreciating their skills and accomplishments, than that math, but I can’t shoehorn everything into this format.

Here again is the table related to those 40.0-WAR peaks (32.0 for catchers):

Machado passed the 40-WAR peak mark in 2022, before I figured out the power of this indicator. Here’s where he stands:

As of mid-June, Machado had a 31% chance of reaching 3,000 hits according to ZiPS — not as high as Freddie Freeman (61%) or Jose Altuve (41%) at the time, but certainly impressive. His bat has cooled off a bit since, but entering Monday’s action, he’s hitting .292/.354/.480 (134 wRC+) and is up to 2,047 hits and 363 homers. His 4.0 WAR is already higher than his 2023 and ’24 marks, and is just an eyelash away from ranking as his seventh-best season. Matching his 0.8-WAR rest-of-season projection would push him past the recently inducted Dick Allen for 18th in JAWS among third basemen, and place him 0.1 WAR away from the seven-year peak standard at the position.

Machado is a polarizing player who’s done plenty to cast himself as the heel throughout his career. Many have called him dirty, though for what it’s worth, Dustin Pedroia exonerated him for the takeout slide that turned the Red Sox second baseman’s career. He’s still capable of finding controversy — witness the ball he threw into the Dodgers’ dugout during last year’s Division Series, shortly after Fernando Tatis Jr. was hit by a pitch — but he’s also added some energy to the Padres’ rivalry with the Dodgers, helping to elevate it into one of the game’s best. He remains an exciting player at the plate and in the field, and it’s more apparent than ever he’s going to wind up a Hall of Famer.

For the rest of this installment, I’ll move around the horn. All statistics are through August 24.

First Base

Though he’s been unable to maintain the pace he set early this season, Paul Goldschmidt has rebounded from his subpar finale in St. Louis, one that included an agonizingly slow start and an appearance on my Replacement-Level Killers list. His bat perked up in the second half of 2024, and if his final season with the Cardinals did nothing else, it pushed him past the 2,000-hit and 350-homer marks as well as the JAWS standard at first base.

After landing a one-year, $12.5 million pillow contract with the Yankees, the 37-year-old Goldschmidt hit .338/.394/.495 (148 wRC+) through the end of May, a line that reflected his tradeoff between power (just six homers to that point) and contact (a 15.1% strikeout rate, 11.4 points below last season). Since then, however, Goldschmidt has skidded to a .227/.276/.357 (74 wRC+) line, and overall, he’s got a drastic platoon split, with a 217 wRC+ in 132 PA against lefties and a 70 wRC+ in 323 PA against righties. He’ll have to shore up that split, and produce at a higher level than he’s done lately, if he’s to remain an everyday option. While his career totals (now 2,174 hits and 372 homers) could probably use more padding for some voters’ tastes, he’s a seven-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove winner and former MVP who ranks among the top 15 first basemen in career, peak, and JAWS.

Like Goldschmidt, Freeman was unable to maintain a ridiculously hot start (.374/.440/.638, 194 wRC+ through May, in his case), but as noted above, while he was red-hot, Dan Szymborski forecast him as having a 61% chance of reaching 3,000 hits (he’s the active leader with 2,401) and a 36% chance of reaching 500 homers (he has 361). Dan’s ZiPS for Freeman also included a median projection for 80.9 career WAR, which would supplant Jeff Bagwell for sixth all-time among first basemen and rank second among those from the integration era, behind only Pujols.

Freeman’s late-2024 cooldown and this year’s lesser campaign did cost him a chance to improve his peak score; at 39.5, he’s a little light in that department, trailing not only Goldschmidt but also Todd Helton (46.6), Joey Votto (46.5), and Cabrera (44.8). He’s made up for it with a Steady Freddiness that includes nine All-Star selections, an MVP award, and four other top-five finishes in the voting, a collection of accomplishments that has given him a 135 to 109 edge on Goldschmidt in terms of their Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor scores; Votto has just 89 points there. Last year’s World Series MVP-winning performance, which not only helped the Dodgers to a championship but channeled the hobbled Kirk Gibson even before we knew about the fractured rib, is probably worth an extra bump as well. Did I mention that with his .302/.375/.501 line, Freeman’s in the race for his first batting title? His current mark would rank as only his sixth-best full-season mark, but it’s good enough to lead the NL for the moment.

Also noteworthy: Keep an eye on the first baseman who replaced Freeman in Atlanta. At 31, Matt Olson is no spring chicken, but thanks to his combination of power, plate discipline and elite defense, he’s at 38.1 career WAR/34.1 peak/36.1 JAWS, and his current 4.2 WAR is one of his seven-best seasons; he’s got three between 3.3 and 4.0 that he could still improve upon to approach a 40-WAR peak before too long.

Second Base

Altuve’s move to left field has been a disaster in terms of defense (-10 DRS in just 362 innings), and it’s limited him to just 0.8 WAR despite a solid season at the plate (.276/.339/.456, 119 wRC+). Even so, it’s been a good season for him in terms of counting stats, as he’s up to 2,367 hits and 251 homers (he’s surpassed 20 for the seventh time).

Most importantly, since I checked in last summer, Altuve inched over the 40-WAR peak mark, though I believe that happened when Baseball Reference published its preseason WAR update, affecting park factors and DRS data, because last season wasn’t one of his seven best. Nonetheless, he’s now surpassed Pedroia and Ian Kinsler in the JAWS rankings, and is up to 19th; of the next five second basemen above him in the rankings, four are Hall of Famers, namely Billy Herman (47.8 JAWS), Joe Gordon (50.2), Craig Biggio (53.7) and Roberto Alomar (55.0). As noted last year, the further we get from the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, the less it seems likely to affect his Hall chances, particularly given reports that he rejected the help provided by the trash can signaling system. Between that and the lack of contemporary second basemen who could gain entry, I like his chances even if he winds up being — wait for it — short in JAWS.

Marcus Semien surpassed the 40-WAR peak mark last year, which may come as a surprise unless you’ve been paying attention, since his three All-Star appearances and lone Gold Glove make for modest totals. He’s been shortchanged in both departments, particularly as his 54 DRS since moving to second base in 2020 ranks second in the majors; unfortunately, he plays in the same league as Andrés Giménez, who leads with 65 DRS and has taken home the last three AL Gold Gloves himself.

Semien got a comparatively late start for Hall purposes, playing just 85 games with 1.4 WAR before his age-24 season in 2015. Nonetheless, he’s put himself on the radar by combining impressive power (a high of 45 homers in 2021, and 78 across ’22-24), excellent defense, and durability (he played 159 or more games five times from 2019–24). He’s banked three seasons of at least 7.0 WAR, which is tied for third among active position players. Matt Chapman and Aaron Judge have as many, with only Mookie Betts (four), and Mike Trout (seven) ahead of them; if you count Shohei Ohtani’s pitching WAR, he’s got four seasons of at least 9.0, but that’s not a fair comparison. Since the start of 2019, only Judge (45.6), Juan Soto (38.0), and Betts (37.9) have higher WAR numbers among position players. Semien is now up to 23rd among second basemen in JAWS, just below Jeff Kent (45.6), Kinsler (46.1) and Pedroia (46.4).

Alas, after digging his way out from a miserably slow start, the 34-year-old Semien — now hitting .230/.305/.364 (88 wRC+) — may be done for the season, as he’s landed on the IL with a fractured third metatarsal and a Lisfranc sprain in his left foot. The timeline on his return is four to six weeks; the regular season ends in five weeks, and the Rangers (66-67) are currently 5 1/2 games out of the third AL Wild Card spot, so there may not be reason for him to suit up again.

Shortstop

From a JAWS standpoint, Francisco Lindor has left his shortstop cohort in the dust. Two years ago, in my mid-2023 roundup, Lindor’s 38.0 JAWS trailed Carlos Correa (39.2), though he still had the edge on Semien (36.2, and at that point still classified as a shortstop), Xander Bogaerts (34.7), Trea Turner (30.0). Lindor totaled 6.1 WAR that year (fifth in the NL) while clubbing 31 homers and stealing 31 bases (his first 30-30 season). He followed that up — and finally seemed to win a place in the hearts of Mets fans — with 6.9 WAR last year (third in the NL) as well as 33 homers, the last of which helped the Mets clinch a Wild Card berth. He then added a grand slam off the Phillies’ Carlos Estévez that provided all the Mets’ scoring in the Division Series clincher, and came up big in the team’s two NLCS victories against the Dodgers.

On the heels of his second-place finish in the NL MVP voting, Lindor was finally elected to start the All-Star Game this year, his fifth career appearance but his first since 2019, when he was still with Cleveland. Like the rest of the Mets, he’s had his ups and downs this season while hitting .265/.334/.461 (124 wRC+), but with 25 homers and 23 steals, he’s got another shot at 30-30, and he projects to nudge his peak score — which passed 40.0 last year — up a bit. He’s now 19th in JAWS among shortstops, 11 spots ahead of Correa; it’ll take a couple seasons for him to make more headway, as the next two shortstops in the rankings are Jack Glasscock (51.5 JAWS) and Joe Cronin (54.3). Lindor is still just 31 and is well shy of 2,000 hits (he has 1,630), but if he stays at shortstop, he’s got a very good shot at surpassing Cal Ripken Jr.’s record 345 homers at the position; he’s got 265 (271 total). More than ever, it seems clear that Cooperstown is in his future.

Plantar fasciitis and other injuries have slowed Correa’s progress. After posting a strong 5.3 WAR in 2022, his first season with the Twins, he totaled just 5.1 in 304 games over the next 2 2/3 seasons before his shocking trade back to the Astros, who have shifted him to third base. So far, he’s taken to the move, hitting .349/.407/.494 with 1.1 WAR in just 21 games, compared to 0.1 in his final 93 games with the Twins.

Last year’s 3.7 WAR (in just 86 games) was Correa’s seventh-best season. He’s not yet to the 40-WAR peak score but still has some low-hanging fruit, with two of his seven best seasons below 4.0 WAR and a third one below 5.0. As he nears his 31st birthday (September 22), he’s still young enough to rebound according to the calendar, but one does wonder about the condition of his wheels.

When I checked in last July, Corey Seager’s 32.9 JAWS was a whisker behind Turner (33.0) and well behind Bogaerts (37.2), but he’s been the most productive of the three since. Though he lost nearly all of last September to a sports hernia and played just 123 games, he finished with 5.0 WAR and reached the 30-homer plateau for the third time. He’s at 5.5 WAR now — already his second-highest total — in just 99 games, having made two trips to the injured list for a recurrent right hamstring strain. He’s currently hitting .269/.369/.473 (132 wRC+) with 19 homers and a career-high 14 DRS, which stands in marked contrast to his 3 FRV; he’s got a career gap of 19 runs between the two systems (14 DRS, -5 FRV). Beyond the advanced stats, his five All-Star appearances are already the equal of Lindor and more than Correa (who has three). Seager also has two top-three MVP finishes and is the only two-time World Series MVP besides Reggie Jackson. He’s got Hall-caliber talent; the question is whether he can stay on the field.

Also noteworthy: Bogaerts is back at shortstop after a partial-season detour to second; his defense has gotten mixed marks from the metrics (6 FRV, -3 DRS), which has often been the case. His real problem is that at 32, his bat doesn’t seem special anymore; his .262/.330/.390 (104 wRC+) line marks his second straight season with a slugging percentage below .400. He hasn’t had a 5-WAR season since 2022, has totaled just 3.2 WAR since the start of ’24, and has a 42.0/34.3/38.2 line.

On the other hand, the 32-year-old Turner is on the rebound after totaling just 6.5 WAR over the past two seasons. Defense (a combined -26 DRS, though just -6 FRV) dragged him down, but this year he’s in the midst of an uptick (1 DRS, 11 FRV) while hitting .300/.354/.449 (123 wRC+) with 14 homers and 32 steals. His 4.5 WAR ranks ninth in the NL and is his fourth-best season, but with just two seasons of at least 5.0 WAR, his 40.9/31.9/36.4 line ranks 46th among shortstops. Color me skeptical about his chances. Also, if you’re wondering about Betts, he’s still classified as a right fielder and will be in the next installment.

Third Base

At 34 years old, Nolan Arenado seems to be falling apart before our very eyes. Currently sidelined by a right shoulder strain that will likely keep him out into early September, he’s hitting just .235/.294/.366 with 10 homers and an 83 wRC+, the lowest full-season mark of his career (he had a 76 wRC+ in 48 games in 2020). He was more productive last year (.272/.325/.394, 102 wRC+), but he rarely hits the ball hard anymore; since the start of last season, he’s got a meager 3.5% barrel rate and 31.9% hard-hit rate as well as an 86.5-mph average exit velocity.

Fortunately, most of Arenado’s heavy lifting is done. Despite injuries and the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he averaged 16 DRS from 2013–22 while bringing home 10 consecutive Gold Gloves. Thanks in large part to that defense, his 44.2 WAR peak score ranks 13th at the position, ahead of the standard as well as his contemporaries (for the moment). He’s still above average (5 DRS) at the hot corner, which gives his value a much-needed floor; I’m not optimistic he can get the 10 WAR he needs to reach the third base standard, but I do think his hardware and homers (he’s at 351) will be enough to get him elected.

José Ramírez is the Little Engine That Could. At 32, he’s got seven All-Star selections and five top-five finishes in the AL MVP voting, and he passed the 40-WAR peak threshold two years ago. Since my last roundup, he matched his career high in homers (39), set a new high in stolen bases (41), and added 5.4 points of JAWS; with that, he’s climbed five spots in the third base rankings, from 26th to 21st, and he’s still chugging along.

Ramírez is hitting .288/.362/.512 (135 wRC+) with 26 homers and 36 steals, giving him a strong chance at his third 30-30 season. His 4.8 WAR has already matched last year’s total and is (again) his seventh-best season. If he matches his rest-of-season projection, he’ll have the 12th-highest peak score at the position, leapfrogging not only Machado and Arenado but also Hall of Famers Edgar Martinez and Scott Rolen. With 1,637 hits and 281 homers, his counting stats don’t yet look Hall-caliber, but make no mistake, this guy is on his way.

Also noteworthy: If not for the right quad strain that knocked him out of action for seven weeks, Alex Bregman might have finally banked his third season of at least 5.0 WAR; he had seasons of 7.6 and 8.9 in 2018 and ’19, but with 4.0 WAR so far and 0.7 projected for the rest of the season, he may land in the 4.0–4.9 range for the fifth time. The 31-year-old Bregman has just three All-Star appearances and one Gold Glove, but with a 43.6/38.3/40.9 line, he’s not far off from that 40-WAR peak… Matt Chapman has five Gold Gloves and three 7-WAR seasons, but just one All-Star selection. He’s 32 but remains an exceptional defender, and has a lot of room to improve his 41.1/36.7/38.9 line.