Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 8/27/2020

Craig Edwards: Let’s get things rolling.

Blue-Collar Tweeker: As a Cardinal fan, being on the receiving end of Matheny’s bullpen handling last night was glorious.

Craig Edwards: I still feel bad for Rosenthal as he was pitching on back to back days, was a little gassed, and then after he pitched to too many batters, Matheny then took him out. I don’t know how well or poorly Matheny is managing is Kansas City and it is probably going to be tough to tell this season, anyway, but last night didn’t look great.

Guest: What the heck happened that Walker was potentially acquired for cash considerations ?

Craig Edwards: I think it is player to be named later going to Toronto, though cash considerations could end up being it. He’s a free agent at the end of the season and he’s pitched like a 4th-5th starter. There’s not going to be much demand for players like that and we will probably see similar deals over the next few days.

Chris: Think Tai walker being traded for a ptbnl this early means the Mariners got something better than expected?

Chris: Why doesn’t mlb allow ptbnl to be named and just make it so they can’t join their new 60 man site?

Craig Edwards: I don’t know about better than expected. It could be that the minor leaguer to be named is actually multiple minor leaguers that Seattle will get to choose from. I think the early deal is just Jerry getting ahead of things a bit and finding the only team in the AL who needs back-end rotation help to make the playoffs. I don’t think it is a reflection on Seattle getting a good player back.

Guest: Any explanation for Alonso’s power drop this year?  And how concerned should we be about it?

Craig Edwards: I wouldn’t be overly concerned. He had stretches like this in late-April to mid-May as well as the month of July last year that looked a lot like this.

Craig Edwards: It’s only a month.

Y I K E Mastrzemski: Should Yaz have been HM at least in your trade value series? He’s older but his great approach seems to suggest that this production is real and he is under contract for a long time.

Craig Edwards: He does have a lot of team control, but those are years 30-35 so it is difficult to think he has a ton of staying power in terms of performance. He’s still only been great for a month, and his walk and strikeout rates look great, statcast suggests he’s more of a 125-130 wRC+ player than the 172 he’s put up so far.

Doug: What happened to the 2019 NL rookies? Alonso, Reynolds, Hiura, and Paddack are all lost. Soroka is down with an ugly injury. Did Tatis steak all their mojo in the off-season?

Craig Edwards: let’s start by saying it’s only a month. Soroka’s injury was a freakish thing. Alonso is still an above-average hitter. Reynolds is down a bit from expectations, but his BABIP was due for a fall from last season. Hiura’s BABIP is the same deal and he’s had k issues last season. Even then, Hiura is still putting up an average batting line. Paddack is a pitcher and he’s just given up a bunch of homers in a short time. That should even out over the course of a long season.

Zaque: Where do you think Messi should go?

Craig Edwards: Leeds

Eli: Cy Young predictions?

Craig Edwards: Right now, it is Bieber and deGrom so it is hard to go against those two with only a month left.

alan giggs: Hi Craig! I came across some older statistics. Is the stat Marginal Lineup Value essentially the same as wRAA? IF not, are they close? And how about Equivalent Average and wOBA?

Craig Edwards: I think marginal lineup value used to go into VORP way back when and is likely based on similar thinking to wRAA though probably gets there in a different way. Equivalent average uses a simpler formula that isn’t weighted as well as wOBA, and it is set to be similar to batting average as opposed to OBP like wOBA. They are similar, maybe you would call them precursors to what we use now.

Chris: Kyle Lewis is amazing!!

Craig Edwards: Seems like he got hot again for another 10-day stretch. The balls just keep dropping in.

Logan: Vlad Jr. is turning in a replacement-level season.  How long until we worry he is a bust?

Craig Edwards: He’s got a 141 wRC+ in August. I’m not even sure he is busting right now. I think if he doesn’t hit for a full season, or at least 2/3 of one, then you worry. He’s still only 21 years old and there’s a ton of untapped game power that he could get to and become a monster star.

FunFella13: If I am a slap-hitting speed guy, at the dish in a tie game bottom 9 2 outs, am I better off striking out and letting the guy behind me lead off b10 with me on second and zero outs, than trying to get on to let someone try with 2 outs?

Craig Edwards: Giving up an out seems like not a very good idea. The marginal gain is that there is a slightly better runner in extra innings, but at the plate with two outs, there’s roughly a 7% chance of scoring and winning the game right then, which doesn’t seem like it would be worth giving up.

Blue-Collar Tweeker: Dylan Carlson hasn’t gotten off to a great start.  You think he’s here to stay in St. Louis even if his on base woes continue?

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure why you’d pull the plug that quickly. By Statcast’s numbers, he’s been an average hitter, just hit into bad luck. He’s got five walks in 55 PA which is just fine and his k-rate is below 30%. There’s not really too much wrong with him right now.

B: It seems that teams have learned that having a deep infielder playing in the outfield grass can really improve defense against LHHs.  Should we expect that BABIP is going to shift away from .300 now, and if so, how low should we expect it to go?

Craig Edwards: That depends. If a lefty hitter knows that he has to hit the ball very hard to get a hit, maybe he strikes out more in order to make better contact with the ball and then BABIP isn’t affected as much. It’s a bunch of back and forth as pitchers and hitters adjust. Also, lefties take a smaller portion of plate appearances which reduces the effect they can create if they do have a lower BABIP.

Wolf: Let’s say you’re Alex Anthopoulos – what’s your move at the trade deadline?

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure he needs to do anything, and Anderson’s start certainly helps make that case, but Lance Lynn or Dylan Bundy would make some sense.

Kretin: What is a realistic return for Bundy if the Angels trade him?

Craig Edwards: It probably isn’t going to be a lot. Maybe they can target someone who isn’t getting an everyday type opportunity but could use a change of scenery, like how Boston got Nick Pivetta. While there will be a lot of teams interested in Bundy, few teams are going to give up much for a pending FA.

Blake: Will the Marlins make the playoffs?

Craig Edwards: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Craig Edwards: Looks like 31% so I’ll say no. Going to have a piece, probably tomorrow, about playoff odds and how to look at them this year.

Wheeler: What is up with Zack Wheeler’s low K%? It doesn’t appear his velocity has changed and he’s been effective.

Craig Edwards: He’s been using a sinker a lot more, which means more ground balls and potentially quicker outs, but also means fewer whiffs and strikeouts.

Childish Giambino: How important is it for MLB to participate in the boycott started by the NBA? Aside from making a visible stance that MLB and its team are against the actions, is there anything to be gained?  One night of postponed games is hardly going to have an effect on policy change in the country

Craig Edwards: I think it is important. What if every team’s stadium was used as a polling place and there were effective ways to transport people to vote at the stadium? If one night of postponements raises awareness and gets some to act and leads to more voting, that could have a significant change in elections and policy locally and nationally.

Rick: Who are your picks for the AL playoffs at this point?

Craig Edwards: I’m not going to say it is a done deal, but the AL playoff race looks to be more about seeding than position. The surge by the White Sox makes it seem like three teams will get in from the central and Toronto looks like they might get that final playoff spot. The Orioles, Tigers, and Royals are technically close, but not likely to make it and the Rangers and Angels just have too much ground to make up in a month.

Scott: Just how far has Josh Bell fallen in terms of trade value?

Craig Edwards: I don’t know if one month makes it fall that far, but keep in mind, Bell has really only had one great half. He’s been pretty close to average otherwise as a hitter and that’s not going to create a ton of value playing first base.

Trent: Buehler hit the IL today.  With Alex Wood hurt, David Price opting out, Kenta Maeda and Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 leaving via free agency, etc., will the Dodgers’ pitching depth ever run out?

Craig Edwards: They only need to make it another month. The next week or so could be dicey, but they’ll probably be okay.

paul: Why do the Cardinals continue to start Dexter Fowler?  He has the lowest ceiling of anyone in the OF and his defense is declining.    Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson all have huge upsides, and need big league at bats to develop.  Fowler is a fine player, but his projections for thi season arn’t any better than the other Outfielders and he doesn’t figure into the clubs long term plans.  It seems like trading Fowler to a team that needs OF help would be good for everyone.

Craig Edwards: Carlson has been playing every day, sometimes twice. O’Neill and Bader have had different injuries over the last week or so. There’s also a DH spot the Cardinals have to fill and with the doubleheaders, basically everybody plays. Fowler hasn’t been great, but this year and last year, he’s basically been an average hitter. That would make for a really good fourth outfielder, or, when the team is playing all the time, then everyone is pressed into service. There’s no trade market for Fowler without eating his contract, and that’s something the Cardinals are likely to do.

Jesus Is My Homeboy: What would Gausman cost a team interested in acquiring him?

Craig Edwards: I’m guessing not very much. Less than a top-100 prospect.

Estevão: Crazy trade, Keibert Ruiz and Julio Urias for DeGrom

Craig Edwards: Mets aren’t doing that.

Mike Hawk: After 3 consecutive 5+ inning starts for Manaea, do you think he’s over initial seasonal yips?

Craig Edwards: Probably, though I would note that his first few starts weren’t as bad his ERA suggested.

Childish Giambino: Wait, you have deGrom over Darvish for the NL Cy right now?  Please explain yourself

Craig Edwards: Is it that absurd? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=nl&qual=y&…

Armadillofury: Is Cleveland doing something different with their SP development or is it just chance?

Craig Edwards: I think Travis Sawchik at 538 either tweeted or wrote about it, but Cleveland went heavy on command, thinking they could teach more velocity and swings and misses and that’s worked out really well.

Chuck: Any idea about what’s happened to Laureano? He’s fallen off the table since his suspension. Or is this just who he is?

Craig Edwards: Hasn’t even been 10 games yet. Nothing to see yet.

jake: do u think rosenthal will be traded to a team where he’d remain the closer?

Craig Edwards: I doubt it.

Dan: Gregory Polanco having a bit of a resurgence. Can he continue ROS?

Dude: Gregory Polanco’s Ks are making me weep. Think he turns it around?

Craig Edwards: I’m honestly not sure.

Whitey: Dylan Carlson has perked up a little. Do you think he’ll continue to improve rest of the short season or will we see the usual rookie ups and downs?

Craig Edwards: His stat line will continue to improve the rest of the season, most likely.

Inaccessible Rail: How is deGrom’s BABIP against only .267 when the Mets are the sixth-worst fielding team in baseball?

Craig Edwards: We are only talking about like 75 batted balls. If there were two more hits, it would be like .295. Just a small sample.

Rick: Re: Vlad: “I think if he doesn’t hit for a full season, or at least 2/3 of one, then you worry.”  He now has a 106 wRC+ through a full season’s worth of PAs (637 total).  106 obviously isn’t bad for a rookie, but it falls well short of the hype, and the defense looks like it could permanently hold down his value.

Craig Edwards: i meant another full season or 2/3 of a season. Hitting at an above-average level with most of that coming before he turned 21 is very impressive and still bodes well for his future.

Eric C: How does the playoff format look like? Let’s say, for example, the AL Central 3rd place team has a better record than the division runners-up in the AL West and East.  Would that team be seeded higher than those squads, or would they be seeded 7th instead (automatically behind the other divisions’ runners-up)?

Craig Edwards: wild cards get 7th and 8th seeds no matter what.

Ryan: Should the Giants sell high on Mike Yastrzemski?  If so, could they land a top 100 prospect for him?

Craig Edwards: No on both, I think.

James: Bundy has another year after this one until he’s a free agent

Craig Edwards: I stand corrected. If that’s the case, the Angels should probably just hold on to him unless they get a top-100 type player, which they probably won’t.

Jonah hill: Can we make anything of Jo Adells struggles or is sample size too small? What line would you predict for him next season?

Craig Edwards: He struggled at Triple-A some last year, but this might be the best way for him to get better. I think a slightly above-average bat is a reasonable expectation for next season.

Harmon Ripkowski: Hi! Was wondering what you thought of the HOF chances for Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman, and Rizzo?

Craig Edwards: Good for Votto. The rest very likely fall short.

Craig Edwards: That’s all I’ve got time for today. Thanks for all the questions.