Last year, I took a shot at predicting which players would sign contracts to play in Japan. I got five right, including Matt Murton, whose inclusion was inspired by Dave Cameron’s 2009 article espousing his virtues.
This autumn, I have again come up with list of players I think could play in Japan next year. But before I reveal it, I’d like to ask for your suggestions. Every die-hard baseball fan has a favorite hardworking minor league veteran who has nothing left to prove in 3A, but for some reason can’t seem to stick at the MLB level. Japan is a good option for these types of players, as a first-year foreign player typically makes $400k-$1m, and it’s a chance to play in a competitive league in front of large crowds. I want to hear who you think should get a shot. The only rule for suggestions is that you don’t submit your favorite over-priced, under-performing MLB players.
Every year, Japanese teams employ 65-75 foreign players. For a number of reasons, there is a lot of turnover from year to year, which means there are always at least a few opportunities available. Here’s a look at what’s on the collective NPB shopping list for this season, based on my analysis:
* 6-7 starting pitchers
* 7-8 relief pitchers
* 2-3 1B/LF/DH types
* 2 third basemen
You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:
✓Ad-free browsing
✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles
✓Historical & platoon projections
✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps
✓One-click data exports
✓Customizable player-page dashboards
✓Dark & Classic site modes
✓Weekly Members-only mailbag
✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review
✓Optional homepage photo removal
✓Gift articles to non-Members
✓Full postseason coverage
* an outfielder or two
* a utility guy
* and possibly a 2B/3B type for Yomiuri
This is my ballpark estimate; we could see some fluctuation and we will probably see a few surprises.
And with that, I’d like to turn over the floor to you.
Daniel Nava
Man can he hit. And given a shot in Japan I think we’d all be suprised with his results.
Dan Johnson, Jeff Larish, Travis Buck
Micah Hoffpauir. He’s frustrated in his time as a big-leaguer and spent most of last year in AAA Iowa. I think he could put on a power show in Japan.
Mitch Jones, can play left, right and 1b and can flat out mash, but has few big league opportunities.
Wes Timmons speedy 2b/3b type who is sort of a poor mans Chone Figgins.
Could be a guy Yomuri would look at.
Mike Hessman, big time power at 1b and 3b but has never really put it together in the Bigs.
Dana Eveland, has good control and some good stuff, but has been erratic in the MLB.
Elijah Dukes, has all the tools, maybe he could finally harness them in Japan. Getting away from some bad influences could do wonders.
Ryan Langerhans, has great defense that will probably keep him in the MLB but could realize his power potential with the right environment.
Andrew Miller, big lefty could be very good if he could put things together consistently.
Hessman is a perennial ‘should go to Japan’ guy for me.
Japan is, unfortunately, not the right place for a guy like Dukes to work on his issues. I hope he turns it around because he’s a supreme talent, but more importantly, he has a family to think about.
Mike Jacobs and Scot Thorman
Both would be solid power guys over there and both seem to have no chance at big league jobs
Brent Lillibridge
Bad influences? Elijah Dukes, really?
He is the BAD influence…can’t escape himself
Andrew Miller, Chad Gaudin, Daniel Nava, Bubba Bell, Jeff Suppan. And how about Dontrelle Willis? Maybe a chance to rebuild confidence somewhere where it’s ok to go to a full count on every batter
Daniel Nava? He’s going to be the 4th OF for the Sox and guaranteed plenty of playing time with the always injured Drew. Why would he leave?
Yeah, I doubt it. I’m pretty sure Kalish is getting that role.
May seem a little premature but John Bowker?
He’s the first guy that came to mind for me too. I wondered if someone would beat me to the punch.
Mike McCoy
Kenny Powers
John Bowker (already mentioned above), Ryan Shealy, Joey Gathright, Todd Wellemeyer, and Rich Hill. Patrick, could you see any circumstances where any of the previously uber talented but super fragile arms of Rich Harden, Ben Sheets and/or Mark Prior would pitch in Japan? I realize Prior finished the year relieving in Triple-A for Texas, but Harden was DFA’d at season’s end, and Sheets finised the season on the DL once again himself. I’d be curious if, with the focus on the succesful re-ivention of Colby Lewis, more pithers don’t opt for that route then toiling in affiliated ball.
Rich Hill was on my list last year and will be again this year.
NPB teams stay away from guys with significant injury histories, which rules out Harden, Sheets and Prior.
melky cabrera and manny delcarmen
Matt Watson
Matt Carson
Dana Eveland
Chad Gaudin
Andy Marte
Brent Lillibridge
Jack Hannahan
Coming from a Giants fan, what could Jesus Guzman gain? He’s put up decent hitting numbers in AAA, but for a variety of reasons (defense, depth at 1B, etc) he really has no shot getting to the bigs with the Giants.
Michael Restovich played there in 07, any chance he returns?
Dallas Mcpherson?
Do NPB teams usuallly not employ foreign up the middle players (C, 2B/SS, CF)?
There is definitely more emphasis on the corners. Foreign catchers are extremely rare in Japan. There seem to be more foreigners at 2B than SS (Edgar Gonzales and Jose Castillo last year, for example), but it’s still less common than 1B, for example. It’s actually not that uncommon to see a foreigner playing CF (Matt Murton played CF quite a bit for Hanshin last year), but they are usually the type that can handle other OF positions as well.
1B/DH – Barbaro Canizarez
Guy hit .341/.403/.504 this year in AAA and has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues.
LHP Glen Perkins, Minn.
RHP Mike MacDougal, StL.
RHP Billy Buckner, Det.
RHP Jeff Weaver, LAD.
3B Josh Fields, KC.
1B/LF/DH Shelley Duncan, Cle.
OF Jeremy Reed, ChW.
OF Cory Sullivan, Hou.
Bikini (Ed hardy,polo) $25
=========== http://www.stefsclothes.net ===========
Shelley Duncan?
I’ve always thought Mike Wilson would be a good bet over there, but maybe he’ll get a shot in the majors instead.
Justin Christian