Cubs Deal Starlin Castro to the Yankees
The other shoe dropped soon after the Cubs signed Ben Zobrist and created a logjam at second base — Starlin Castro is reportedly heading to New York for Brendan Ryan and Adam Warren. The deal, at its worst, is a way for the Cubs to spread some talent around at areas of need while giving the Yankees an average second baseman. Need for need.
The arm the Cubs are getting could change the calculus, though.
Manager Joe Maddon had nothing but praise for the way Castro handled himself after being moved to second base, talking about how professional the player was and how good he ended up being at turning the double play in his manager meeting on Tuesday at the winter meetings. “His lateral quickness looked better at second base, too,” said Maddon about the new Yankee second baseman, who put up his best defensive value in three years even after switching to the ‘easier’ position.
Brendan Ryan will give the Cubs a true glove-first backup at short, or anywhere on the infield, really. Though Javier Baez can play that role as well, his upside with the bat, as well as troubles tapping in to that upside, make him a high-variance play as a backup shortstop. Now the pressure is off Baez and the team can head north with Ryan as the backup shortstop.
Ostensibly, Warren will play the same role for the Cubs as he did for the Yankees — sopping up innings in a swing role, a sixth starter of sorts. But there’s a chance that the 28-year-old pushes Jason Hammel into that role instead. Warren actually has a larger arsenal.
With a rising (but straight) four-seam, a sinking two-seam, a good-movement changeup with a nice gap (9 mph), and two average breaking balls, Warren has the tools of a good starter. In a bit of a down year for Warren, in terms of whiffs at least, he still got average or better whiff rates on the fastballs, slider, and change. And the curveball gets 70% grounders. In some ways, he even has the look of a great pitcher.
If Warren unseats Hammel and becomes a 200-inning starter with whiffs and good command, the deal may swing back to the Cubs’ side. Even if he doesn’t, the Cubs got a good swing man and a backup middle infielder, at the cost of an average middle infielder on a good contract. That perspective probably favors the Yankees.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Not happy as a NYY fan. I think Ackley/Refsnyder can combine for what Castro likely brings. Really liked Warren. Thought he would get a legit look at the rotation this year.
Castro is 25 years old. He projects as an above average 2B. He put up a 117 wRC+ as a 24 year old, and a 109 wRC+ as a 22 year old.
Getting him for a 28 year old who they hope turns out to be a 4th starter is a deal the Yanks couldn’t turn down.
It never ceases to amaze how great your team’s players become as soon as they are traded.
I’m *pretty* sure CLS is a Yankees fan…
He’s talking about the people bemoaning the loss of Adam Warren…who are likely the same people who were complaining about losing Murphy a couple of weeks ago.
CLS, you’re leaving out Castro’s 80 wRC+ last season and 74 wRC+ in 2013. Castro had the seventh worst soft contact rate in the major leagues last season while playing below average defense at second base and still being owed $38 million over the next four seasons. The Yankees can make this kind of deal because of their revenue stream, as they can make Castro a bench player if he continues to struggle, but you’re pretending like his star hasn’t dimmed considerably.
Oh, those seasons are the only reason a 25 year old MIF who put up a 117 wRC+ in 2014, 100 wRC+ in 2012 and 109 wRC+ in 2011 was available for a 4th starter and backup SS.
It’s definitely a buy-low, and a case of the Yankees using their financial muscles to absorb a lot of risk.
And that’s exactly what they should be doing.
Also, 250 innings of UZR data means less than nothing.
Okay, there’s some good logic to that. Counterpoint:
Castro was 21 when he put up that 109 wRC+. So he’s been above average offensively once in the last four years. He was exactly average once.
Saying that Adam Warren’s ceiling is that of 4th starter after his success in the rotation this season is questionable at best. When he got sent to the bullpen since his ERA was under 3.5
Like jdbolick said, Castro is making real money, and his age doesn’t mean the same thing it normally would, because his last 3 years have mostly been a disappointment.
Castro is making 7 million next year and 9 the year after that. In ’18 and ’19 he is making 10 and 11 mil respectively but by then A-rod, CC, Beltran and Tex contracts will all be off the books. There is some risk that the improved defense he showed at 2B last year was just a flash in the pan but if his upside is a 2-3 win player. A small market team can’t make this gamble but the yanks can. By the time it would hurt them (the last 2 years) they’ll have a lot more money to play with, mitigating much of the loss. It’s the cheapest option for upgrading 2B without giving up prospects or a long term deal. Losing warren hurts but they decided they’d rather trade talent than spend more money on Zobrist or the like. I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to expect Castro to outperform Zobrist in the last 2 years of their deals; for less cash to boot.
His last 3 years have mostly been a disappointment…except for the time he had the best season of his career.
I love Adam Warren as much as anybody, but:
He is 28 years old.
He has 3.5 career WAR.
In 107 IP as a starter, he’s got a 3.98/4.20 ERA/FIP.
So, yeah. He’s a good reliever, and a guy you hope can be a 4th starter.
The Yankees will not have money to play with in 2019. They’ve made no secret that they’re all-in on signing Bryce Harper when he hits free agency in 2018, and that would probably require a contract in the range of 10 years and $500 million.
I could care less how old he is, he has played in 1000 games and has actually gotten worse not better. His age means nothing to me.
1.8 WAR 99 wRC+
2.8 WAR 109 wRC+
3.1 WAR 100 wRC+
0.1 WAR 74 wRC+
2.8 WAR 117 wRC+
0.8 WAR 80 wRC+
So…yeah. He has, by no definition of those words “gotten worse not better.”
What’s he’s been is wildly fucking inconsistent.
…which is why the Yankees got him for a 4/5 and a backup SS.
That is a negative trend CLS.
Except for the best season of his career in 2014 (he accrued the 2.8 WAR in 134 games, while his 3.1 WAR season had over 150).
Warren wanted to be a starter…and the Yankees already have four right-handers better than Warren in the rotation …are seemingly still stuck with CC….and are looking for either a young lefty or an ace.
could well be that the Yankees wanted to move Refsnyder (and very soon will)
and the team has a better middle infield prospect a year or two away in Jorge Mateo
Winning a ring without Starlin Castro won’t be the same.
You are not winning a ring with or without Starlin Castro.
I’m absolutely crushed. Even knowing it was coming it still hurts. My favorite current player and second all time next to Mark Grace. May God bless Starlin’s future.
I say this as a 30+-year member of the “Yuck the Fankees” club: Castro is on a much better trajectory to win a ring than the rest of the Cubs are.
No.
you prolly shouldn’t fret about that possibility…..
….. but p’raps you can name your next goat Starlin
As a Yankee fan I dig it. Gives us a starting second baseman (Ackley and Refsynder are totally unproven) and adds roster flexibility. Castro could back up Didi if needed, Ackley can still get starts at 2B and can be a 4th OF if we trade Gardner, and opens up Refsynder as trade bait.
The cost of Warren and his very hypothetical Greinke-upside is worth it. Brendan Ryan was expendable with the addition of Kozma.
I think Castro can be considered unproven. More bad years than good. It would not take much for Ackley/Refsnyder to duplicate his recent disasters in 2013 and 2015.
2>3?
Is this that New Math I keep hearing about?
Ok sorry, he has as many bad years as good. 3 good 3 bad, and 3 of the bad have come in the last 4 years!!!!
…are you counting a 3 WAR season from a 23 year old as the third bad year?
I think there is a good deal of proof as to Dustin Ackley’s abilities……
Seriously. They acquired Didi, Ackley, Hicks and Castro on the same principle, but Castro’s the only one of those players with a full season of MLB success before the trade.
Yankees got a steal of a deal here.
Yup benched SS with 80 wRC+ screams steal. Enjoy the sub-4% BB rate with no power.
…unless they get the version that’s a 115 wRC+ with 15 HRs.
More than worth the gamble if the only cost is a 4th starter and a backup SS.
But he doesnt only cost that. He is being paid as someone who is not a gamble.
…unless you’re the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers.
In which case he’s absolutely being paid like a gamble.
Looks like the Cubs have really identified SPs used in the bullpen as a market inefficiency. Also a pretty solid salary dump considering Castro looked unmovable 6 months ago before the late season resurgence at 2B.
I hadn’t noticed who wrote the article, but once I saw the in depth breakdown of pitching repertoire I knew it was Eno. Never stop Eno.
who would want to stop Eno?
Sad to see warren go. He and JR Murphy both looked like they could break out as starters if given the chance, but they were blocked by big contract/aquisition players. I wonder what the infield will look like? Will Refsnyder make the bigs? Does Didi get to face LHP? Does Ackley make the roster if Refsnyder has a good spring? My guess is this is an even trade. I think both players avg 1.5-2.5 WAR over the next three years
Ackley definitely makes the roster, regardless of how well Ref does.
Typical Cashman. Trade unproven upside for proven failure at increased cost. With the money they’re paying mediocrities (at best) like Headley, Beltran and now Castro, all below average by fWAR, they could have had Solarte, Ref/Ackley with comparable infield production, and Jason Heyward, a star. The Yankees don’t have stars any more which is why nobody cares anymore about their “let’s pretend we’re competing for a championship” act.
http://www.bleacherreport.com
A lot you reading this out there I’m sure hate the Yankees. But none of you hate the Yankees like we Yankee fans hate the Yankees.
I think people hate yankee fans more than the yankees…
One dimensional criticism.
I don’t like this deal as a Yankee fan.
It reminds me of the Shane Greene deal. I hated to lose a young, homegrown player coming off a good year, but I recognized that they really were getting the better return in Gregorius. This is a very similar situation, but this trade is a mistake.
Warren and Castro are still young, so anything could still happen, but Cashman’s string of excellent trades has finally come to an end. It looks like he just gave up a solid 3rd starter with no guaranteed money for a maybe-starter-probably-platoon guy guaranteed $37 million.
Hopefully, they have a plan to get him back to 2011 form. And now they can DFA Nova and sign Cueto. But for a team that’s constantly saying that it doesn’t have an unlimited budget these days, it’s an awfully high price to pay.
..did you just use the Greene-Gregorious trade as an example of why you don’t like this deal? That could go down as one of Cashman’s best trades. Gregorious out WAR’d Tulo last year, and starting caliber shortstops are much, much harder to find than 6th starters. Being homegrown doesn’t mean these guys are going to be able to pitch better for the team that developed them..
They are not going to sign Cueto. Cashman knows he has to improve the club via trade and he pulled the trigger on this one.
I don’t understand what they’re going to do with Refsnyder. We suffered through Stephen Drew all year because Ref needed to “work on his defense”, and when he was finally given a chance he was starting in the playoff game? Cashman turned down Ref + Warren for Zobrist last year so he must think Ref has some value…
The real question is would we rather have Zobrist for ages 35-38 or Castro 26-29 at half the cost? We’ll see
Yes, I did use the Greene deal as a comparison, because it shows what a good deal for the Yankees looks like. Granted it looks totally lopsided NOW, but at the time, it seemed much less so. Compare Gregorius then to Castro now. The first was a guy who had struggled his first two years, but he recently was a top prospect and he wasn’t guaranteed any money. The second is a guy who has already been around forever, his peak was five years ago, and he’s guaranteed $38 million.
Would I rather have Zobrist and Warren or Castro? Well, assuming that Castro can be as good as Zobrist, which is generous to him, Warren would have to be worth less than $18 million in surplus value over the next 3 years for Castro to be the better pick. I can’t see it.
…you do understand that Castro is younger than Gregorius, right?
And that he put up a 117 wRC+ two years ago?
Your biggest complaint about Castro as a player seems to be that he’s had MLB success in the past.
I’m not if my comment was poorly worded, or if you’re intentionally misinterpreting it.
But my complaint isn’t that he was successful, it’s that he STOPPED being successful. In 2013,he was a budding star, but he descended into inconsistency and mediocrity. Three years later, I have difficulty believing that he can be nearly the player he was then.
He has youth on his side, that’s for sure. Young players improve all the time, that’s why we like them. His significant recent track record of doing the opposite is a big red flag.
I love your optimism please come back next October to tell me how his sub-100 wRC+ is the outlier cause he had 117 3 years ago.
I mean, he’s had 2 seasons significantly below 100, 2 seasons at 100 and 2 seasons significantly above 100.
The best and worst season have each come within the last four years.
So, really, we have no fucking clue what he’s going to do next season. Pretending otherwise is silly.
Teams don’t trade players with Castro’s talent unless they have significant warts. The Yankees’ payroll allows them to take a risk on him, so they did.
We’ll see how it works out, but this is good process for Cashman,
Warren’s not young. He’s 28 and has pitched in the majors for several years.
Warren has never accumulated a 3 WAR season. He has 107 career innings in the rotation.
He is, by no definition of the term, “a solid 3rd starter.”
Risky, but still a good trade for the NYY. Saying that Warren was a 4th starter is not correct as the club has Severino, Pinella, Tanaka, Eovaldi, and Sabathia ahead of him. The primary factor though seems to be the club just didn’t like their options at 2B, especially defensively, and so opened the hole at swingman to fill the hole at 2B. Since they still have Nova to fill the role of swingman they were trading from depth to acquire a solution to a position of scarcity. If Castro is even an average 2B they’ll be happy with the trade.
The other pitchers in a team’s starting rotation has nothing to do with whether someone is a 4th starter. A 4th starter is a guy who you expect to put up 1.5-2.5 WAR given 200 IP in the rotation. That’s Warren.
down year in whiffs probably not entirely unrelated to the amount of starts he made.
Seriously.
9.42 K/9 out of the pen, even better than his 2014.
6.28 K/9 as a starter, right in line with his 2011/2012 AAA numbers from the rotation.
There ya go. Where’d you get those data points? was looking for myself
The splits section on his player page.
While I don’t ever love giving up starting pitching, I actually like this deal for the Yankees because of the added flexibility we get. I could see a scenario where we have platoon setups with Didi/Ackley against RHP and Castro/Refsnyder against LHP. Didi made some strides offensively last year, but he’s an atrocious hitter against LHP over his career (52 wrC+). Castro is a career 106 wrC+ hitter against LHP and as a SS, most teams would take that all day long. He could be slotted in as a regular at 2B and maybe the deal isn’t very good for the Yanks, but I see some upside here if Girardi pushes the right buttons.