D-backs Continue Outfield Makeover in Deal with Rays, Yankees
The Yankees entered the offseason determined to stay under the luxury-tax threshold. The Rays, meanwhile, have appeared intent recently on cutting payroll. As for the Diamondbacks, their moves this winter seem to indicate a club looking to quietly build on its first postseason appearance in six years.
On Tuesday night, the aforementioned organizations came together to accomplish their individual objectives in a three-team trade. Nick Piecoro reported on the most notable players involved in the deal.
Source: Dbacks have acquired Steven Souza from Rays in three-team deal. Brandon Drury is headed to the Yankees.
— Nick Piecoro (@nickpiecoro) February 20, 2018
Steven Souza Jr. should immediately assume Arizona’s starting right-field job, while Brandon Drury represents an option at second and third base for a club that lacks experience at both positions. With regard to Tampa Bay, they both shed Souza’s $3.6 million salary and land a small collection of prospects, including Nick Solak from the Yankees and Anthony Banda and two PTBNL from Arizona. Another prospect, Taylor Widener, goes from New York to Arizona. Our own Eric Longenhagen evaluates the merits of the prospects involved here. It’s not a franchise-altering return for Tampa.
So what to make of all this?
The Diamondbacks enjoyed one of the great trade-deadline acquisitions in recent memory this past season, adding J.D. Martinez in mid-July. In Souza, they have found a replacement who is coming off a nearly four-win campaign in Tampa. He has gradually translated his considerable athletic gifts into on-field production. Souza hit 30 home runs last season and slashed .239/.351/.459 with a 120 wRC+. Always the owner of an excellent batting eye, Souza recorded the 12th-highest walk rate among baseball’s 144 qualified hitters. His right-handed bat will help in a division that is loaded with left-handed pitching.
The Diamondbacks have revamped their outfield over the last 30 or so hours.
The Souza addition comes roughly 24 hours after the addition of Jarrod Dyson, who could help in center or left and could be one of the better value signings of the offseason. With Souza in right, David Peralta could move over to left. The club, meanwhile, seems determined to give Yasmany Tomas as little playing time as possible.
Arizona projects as just an 82-win team, but our Steamer forecasts for Souza (1.2 WAR) and Dyson (1.0 WAR) are perhaps conservative. Last month, the Diamondbacks also added catcher Alex Avila, a Statcast star, on a two-year, $8.25 million deal. It was another sneaky pick-up.
Souza is the third interesting value-play addition to a team that also features one of the better pitching staffs in the NL.
Discussing the trade, Nick Piecoro writes that the club could afford to part with Drury and appears to be one of the bubble teams making a financial effort to improve themselves in 2018.
The moves over the past two days push the Diamondbacks’ payroll into the $125 million-$130 million range, well above where the team was expected to be this season and easily a new franchise record.
The deal figures to create an opportunity for Drury. A natural third baseman, he was blocked at that position by Jake Lamb, and though Drury can also play second, the Diamondbacks have other options, including Ketel Marte and Chris Owings.
The NL West is a fascinating division, made more fascinating by Arizona’s move tonight.
The AL East is fascinating, as well — or, that is, the top of the AL East is fascinating. The division is expected to result in one of the few tightly contested races in the game.
For the Yankees, Drury represents another infielder capable of playing third or second at a salary near the league minimum. While he might just be a placeholder for Gleyber Torres and/or Miguel Andujar, he’s a cheap placeholder with a serviceable career 95 wRC+. When the kids arrive in New York, Drury can slide into a reserve role.
The Yankees could still, say, add Mike Moustakas if they wanted and still remain under the tax threshold. But Drury lessens the need for free-agent infield help. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Yankees’ payroll at $162 million at the moment.
Currently, the New York Yankees have the sixth-highest payroll in baseball. Over the last 20 years, here is where their opening-day payrolls have ranked: 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd. https://t.co/HdAWsMIuSp
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 2, 2018
Whatever transpires between now and the beginning of the season, it’s hard to imagine that the Yankees have not avoided status as a luxury payer for the first time in the luxury-tax era, their stated goal entering the offseason. The Yankees are well positioned for the Bryce Harper/Manny Machado sweepstakes next winter.
As for the Rays?
They now have $69 million in salary commitments for the coming season. If there were a salary floor in the sport, based on the NBA model, it would hover around $130 million for the coming season, or 90% of the league-average payroll.
Between the departures of Souza, Corey Dickerson, and Jake Odorizzi by various means, the Rays have now shed about $13 million in salary this week. While the organization might not be much worse after all these moves, the machinations are probably not exactly rallying Rays Nation. The cycle continues. The march toward complete payroll efficiency continues.
So the Rays turned James Shields into Wil Myers, Myers into Trea Turner and Joe Ross, Turner and Ross into Souza, and Souza into Nick Solak and Anthony Banda. Okie dokie.
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) February 20, 2018
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
So after this latest deal, Boxberger, Longoria, Dickerson, Souza, Odorizzi, Cishek, Hunter, Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich, and Gordon have all departed; and Cobb and Morrison are likely to leave the state via free agency as well. If the rest of a 25-man roster were filled out with replacement-level players, how many games would the “Florida Exiles” win?
68
68 is a modest sum, but don’t worry: the Exiles’ GM will doubtless be making a play to add Colome, Bour, and Realmuto in short order.
I’m surprised that FL teams don’t do more to highlight their large and growing tax advantage over CA and NY teams.
It’s something close to an additional 10% in take home pay (before even adjusting for cost of living).
Probably better to say that they do highlight it, but there are a lot of confounding factors in that discussion. Most notably that the Marlins and Rays seem to be intent on making baseball the lone profession where high-comp workers are being exported from low cost geographies to high-cost ones!
The Rays haven’t got substantially worse; with the addition of the few relevant Marlins, who play positions where they are weakest (C, 1b, SP), they are a 81-84 win team probably.
185 games per season? That’s a lot!
You math stinks more than your joke.
LF: Peralta, Dyson, Tomas
CF: Pollock, Dyson, Brito
RF: Souza, Peralta, Hazelbaker
That is looking like both a solid offensive and defensive OF. It’s a been a long time coming in Phoenix. I think that, when also considering cost-effectiveness, this composition is very preferable compared to a Martinez/Pollock/Peralta outfield. Although losing Banda has a decent chance to come back to haunt them, overall I think this is pretty commendable roster construction work by Hall and Hazen.
That is one way to look at it. Another is that JDM’s 2nd half OPS was about 200 points higher than Goldschmidt’s and 300 points higher than Pollock’s. Not the largest subset of data, but not the smallest and they presumably faced the same pitchers the vast majority of the time (JDM did have four games with Detroit included). You might say the number of data points “plays up” in such a comparison.
I strongly suspect JDM will be missed in Arizona, even if they are still strong wild card contenders.
I kind of agree, but you can still only play 3 of them at any time (other than interleague of course). And keep in mind that Hermann and possibly Owings might well be looking for PT out there as well. Unless there’s another trade in the works (always a possibility), I’m not sure where Tomas fits in to be honest.
It’s going to be quite a battle for the 2nd Wild Card spots in both leagues.
Souza is projected for 1.2 WAR in RF in the D-backs depth chart. I think he was punished by Arizona’s park factor without receiving a corresponding bump in wOBA. Will this change, or did going from Tampa to Arizona really cost him a win? I recall this happening to Cain in Milwaukee.
AZ is likely a worse hitters park than TB in 18
Probably an overstatement, but AZ will probably be a neutral park now that they are using the humidor.
Why? Coors didnt….
Cuz the difference in humidity between the general weather conditions and the humidor is a lot higher in AZ than in COL
This move seems to signal Tomas is (rightfully) an afterthought for AZ.
I don’t see the potential for his skills to add up to “useful contributor”. He can’t really defend, and despite the big power, he’d need to hit better than he ever has to be playable as a DH/1B type.
If the Yankees are able to find someone to dump Ellsbury on someone, they could have in the neighborhood of $70M next season to spend on free agents and stay under the tax. That might accidentally sign both Harper and Machado. Now I’m a Yankees fan (and it almost certainly won’t happen after a few guys go through arb), but you gotta admit it would be pretty cool to see a lineup with Harper, Machado, Stanton, Judge, and Sanchez.
I’m a Yankees fan, and sometimes I think too much is too much. I loved watching Sanchez and Judge last year. I like homegrown stars.
I like watching homegrown stars too, which would still happen given that Judge, Sanchez, and Severino would all be around still, and potentially Bird if he takes the next step (he’ll be around, whether he’s a star or not is a different story). You’ve also got a spot for Torres as well.
The potential is there for the Yankees to maximize the use of younger players and established free agents in a way that they haven’t done since the 90s. Previously they tried the Galacticos approach of Real Madrid without focusing on younger talent from the farm system. Things are naturally cyclical, so eventually the contracts will become onerous if they try to maintain the rookie contract guys once they hit free agency (which they should), but for a year or two there, it would be fascinating to see pitchers try to navigate the lineup.
Harper can’t play center field. Stanton can’t play center field. The Yankees might try out Judge at 3 or 4 games in center field this season, but he almost certainly can’t play center field. Harper is completely superfluous for the Yankees at this point. Machado, maybe. But the Stanton trade killed any chance the Yankees had of acquiring Harper.
Between LF, RF, and DH, there are plenty of PAs to go around. None of them have to play CF.
So you want Gardner to ride the bench, and completely block Frazier/Florial? And your math makes it sound like you think someone is going to take on all of Ellsbury’s contract. If you’re speculating on something that, why not just assume some other stuff, like the Nats trading Scherzer to the Yankees for Torreyes, or something like that?
Gardner only has a team option for next season which costs $2M to decline. I don’t think he’s a roadblock.
As far as Frazier/Florial, per other commenters, someone has to play CF.
My math also assumed the Yankees wouldn’t be willing to pay the tax again, which they may be willing to do.
Harper doesn’t play CF, but he’s acquitted himself perfectly well there any time he’s been asked (16.7 UZR/150)
And, of course, both Judge and Stanton are excellent corner OFs, quite capable of carrying a CF with less than spectacular range.
He’s played over 100 games in CF I’m assuming he can handle it. They don’t put him there because they are worried he will injure himself.
Remind me again: who are the Yankees going to “dump” Ellsbury on again? I kind of faded out after that part of the post.
Maybe he’ll retire after this year and save the Yankees some money.
Matt Kemp got traded this offseason when he was worth 2.1 less wins than Ellsbury and makes similar money. Ellsbury does have a no trade clause but those get waived all the time. I’m not saying it’s likely, but its not impossible by any means.
Matt Kemp got traded for Gonzalez, Kazmir, and McCarthy. If by “dump” Ellsbury you mean “trade him for a group of guys with equally bad contracts”, then sure.
How about packaging him with prospects?
I picked Kemp as an extreme example, but people on awful contracts do get traded.
Because they’re well below the luxury tax threshold and Ellsbury still offers something. He isn’t the burden that Kemp was.
They could move him if they included Betances in the deal.
I think Travis is right here: The D-Backs and Yankees did really well here, and the Rays did not. The D-Backs and Yankees were both operating with limited payroll and somehow managed to solve their biggest needs (without exceeding it and from dealing from a position of surplus. The D-Backs get a guy who can both provide a lot of value on defense and in the lineup (and if we believe his breakout which I kind of do, he’s a borderline all-star) and they control him for three years. The Yankees get a guy who can alternate between 2nd and 3rd base depending on Andujar’s and Torres’s timelines. And they only gave up guys they won’t miss.
But the Rays…just eyeballing the FV grades and Souza’s numbers here, it sure looks like the Rays got taken here. They’re probably a lot higher on Banda and Solak, and they are both interesting sleeper types, so maybe the FV grades are a bit low. But what would worry me more is that it doesn’t look like the Rays have a plan. The Rays could have gained more payroll space from non-tendering either Brad Miller or Adeiny Hechevarria. If they wanted to win in the next three years or so, then they have to choose between putting either Mallex Smith’s or Jake Bauers’ noodle arm in right field, and also hope they both pan out from an overall value standpoint (and then why did they DFA Dickerson?). But if they’re rebuilding, it is weird timing, since they have a crop of nice prospects about to graduate (Honeywell, Adames, Bauers).
The only way I can really defend this that they think Banda is going to be better than Souza as soon as 2019, and he’ll graduate around the same time as Honeywell/Adames/Bauers so that will form the core of the next contending team. But I think it’s also worth wondering whether there’s a lack of vision from the top with Friedman gone. They’re still doing all kinds of really interesting, unique, data-informed moves but it just doesn’t look like they have any idea where they are going.
One more quick note: The Rays’ return might make more sense once we know the PTBNLs. The Yankees have a ton of interesting arms in the lower parts of their system including one (Clarke Schmidt) who was drafted as a first round pick despite being injured (which would easily explain one PTBNL slot).
My main concern is just that I don’t think the Rays’ moves make much sense collectively, even if many of them could be defended by themselves.
I thought the PTBNL’s are coming from Arizona?
Whoops. You’re right. My bad.
If Souza is viewed as a 2-win player for each of the next 3 years and he gets $3M, $6M, and $10M in Arbitration, then using $9M/win, he has something like $35M in surplus value. Banda, a 50 pitcher, has $20M, and Solak, a 45 bat, has $14M, so it’s roughly even.
If Souza puts up another 3.7 FWAR year, I don’t think the PTBNL’s later will be good enough to make up the difference since I think at best they’d get a 45 and a 40. Rays must think Souza’s 2017 was a fluke.
On the other hand, the Rays did get Jose DeLeon, a 55 arm worth $38M, for 2 years of Logan Forsythe last year, so 3 years of Souza (who has similar projections to Forsythe’s) should have brought back more. Maybe Sheffield and Solak from the Yankees with the Dbacks sending Banda and more to the Yankees.
A 50 pitcher is $14 million, and a 45 bat has $11 million, so that’s $35 million to $25 million in surplus value unless those PTBNL’s are worth something.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/
The question is whether Souza’s breakout was for real or not. ZiPS forecasts him for 2.3 WAR and he’s only 28, so if that’s the average for the rest of his prime he’ll even clock in higher than that. If he is a 3 WAR player, this deal is going to look laughably good for the D-Backs. And there’s good reasons to think Souza is going to stick. Two reasons, really:
1) The improved plate discipline. See:
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/when-plate-discipline-sticks/
2) The BABIP doesn’t look fluky at all (in fact, both projection systems call for it to go up).
I think it’s quite likely that the D-Backs are higher on Banda and Solak than most. But my main concern is…what the hell is their plan? Do they figure they’re not going to contend in the next couple of years? Is their goal just to get as close as possible to .500 without going over, like they’re on The Price is Right? To me, this makes even less sense than what the Pirates are doing, since they have this huge set of really interesting prospects about to graduate.
The DBacks are what the Pirates were and hoped to still be – a team generally outgunned by two division rivals that has a cheap superstar to build around – for now and the near term. Almost everything the DBacks have done for a while should have been and seemed like it was motivated by this. Overpaying Greinke in 2021? Who cares? Ditto for Shelby Miller (though obviously that was not so good). I feel like they should have treated JDM the same way, but this is just an opinion.
Since Banda and Drury aren’t stars and are controlled beyond Goldschmidt’s deal, they made sense as trade chips since the team has a full infield and rotation without them. They had a clear need in the outfield and addressed it.
This sounds about right, and I’m totally in favor of it. One interesting note: A lot of players on the D-Back become a free agent in 2020.
So when Goldschmidt’s deal expires and (presumably) he leaves Arizona for more money, they’re going to have an interesting choice: Trade Jake Lamb, Taijuan Walker, Steven Souza, Robbie Ray, and David Peralta in the last year of their deal, extend them and keep the core together, or just try to make one more run sans Goldschmidt.
That’s where I think they are also – they have 2 years to contend in 2019-2020 and then it becomes a teardown operation. Certainly some of the young guys could show huge improvement and become stars and keep the momentum going, but barring that it’s going to be a fire sale after (or maybe during depending on how the season goes) 2020.
Just a clarification, you mean 2018 and 2019 correct?
Whoops, I shouldn’t do prospect value from memory. Thanks for correcting and then even on a conservative valuation of Souza, the trade doesn’t look good for the Rays.
Souza’s “wins over Carlos Gomez” aren’t that high. Replacement level is an interpretive dance.
Agree in part but-
I’m not sure the Yankees really solved a need. Drury projects for 1 WAR by Steamer and 0 WAR by ZIPS, over about 440 PAs: so a 0.5 WAR average.
By that same approach:
Wade projects for 0.75 WAR over about 360 PA;
Solak projects for 0.3 WAR over 260 PA; &
Torreyes 0.2 WAR over 300 PA by that method.
So Drury projects to be about a 0.1-0.2 WAR improvement by taking some PAs from Wade and Torreyes and all of Solak’s (though admittedly he’d be unlikely to make the bigs until late ’18).
I don’t think the Yankees did poorly, as its such a minor move and Torres/Andujar will take the bulk of the time at 2B & 3B: but IMO it’s not a clear win for NYY : Widener has good velo and is ~3.00 on ERA, FIP and xFIP for his minor league career, Solak has done nothing but hit. Both players are old for their levels and have limited experience but have performed well. If they are both 45 FV, then together worth about $25m. Drury projects for about 4 WAR over the next 4 years of cost control, but would likely make ~$10m in his arb years, so that would put the Yanks ~$5m ahead but with fairly close trade values.
As for how well the Arizona solved a need, it depends a bit on the two PTBNL.
Banda has a 1.7 ZIPS projection for 150 IP and a 0.2 Steamer projection for 18 IP- so an average of 0.95 WAR for 85 IP. His WAR/200 projection is similar to Souza’s WAR/600, round 2 WAR. The only reason Souza projects to put up more WAR than Banda is the greater confidence that he will play alot, but Banda turns 25 this season, so he is fairly likely to get some IP with Tampa.
Banda only projected to be Arizona’s 7th best SP this year, but he’s also worked out of the pen and would have had a role with the Diamondbacks. Swapping him for Souza is substantial negative surplus value as they project similarly and Banda has 3 more years of cost control: 3 years of near 2 WAR performance is ~$50m. The PTBNL are likely to be worth around $10m+, assuming both are 40/45 FV types.
IMO, in terms of surplus value calculation, it looks like
a small win for TB (+ $55m in value)
a fair deal and maybe win for NYY (+$5m in value) and
a small loss for AZ (-$60m in value).
Depending on the rate of depreciation for future value, all three returns seem pretty fair and even mechanical.
* Tampa, the rebuilding team, gets the most value by a small bit though it’s deferred and higher variance;
* Arizona, the team adding the veteran, name full-time starter pays a bit in future value but not much; &
* the Yanks, as the third party facilitator, walk away an iota ahead in value with lower variance (which makes sense for them).
I’m confused at what Tampa is doing but think that the presentation of this deal makes it look worse than it is for the Rays: given the two PTBNL and the ‘Souza for Drury’ headline when Banda is likely the 2nd most notable asset in the deal (and has the most surplus value). Agreed about Hechavaria & Miller, but those dumps may be coming.
I think that the Rays see Banda and Solak as an FV55 and FV50, which makes this deal look way, way better. An FV50 pitcher and FV45 hitter is $25 million surplus value combined; an FV55 pitcher and FV50 hitter is $42 million surplus value combined. That’s an enormous difference. The PTBNL are from Arizona’s system, so they’re unlikely to be better than FV40s (if that), but if they’re unexpectedly good that would bump it up more.
Solak comes with a 2019 ETA as well, if they think he’s more Kolten Wong, or pre-power Dan Murphy, than Rob Refsnyder.
Yes, strange to me that the Rays chose to move Souza rather than Miller. Tho I would have to assume Miller (like Dickerson) had little value and they prob did try to move him to no avail.
Look, the Rays could be competitive if their young pitching comes together quickly. Seems like they at least need to add another LHed bat like Duda if not LoMo.
I think the simplest explanation here is to take Neander at his word when he says this wasn’t about salaries. Souza was owed $3.55M this year, and there were other ways to clear that cash if they absolutely had to clear such a paltry sum.
I think it’s more likely that they prefer to have the Banda/Solak duo than Souza. They’re certainly not working with the same data we’re seeing, but there would be some level of objective support for that stance in the Steamer/ZiPS systems: Souza is projected as about an average player in 2018 by the two, and Banda is also projected as about an average player. Maybe the error bars are bigger on Banda’s projection – probably they are. But we’re talking 6 years of Banda vs. 3 (more expensive,) years of Souza, and Solak is quite a good prospect in his own right.
I’d venture a guess that, in terms of production, TB thinks they’re coming out at least even by 2019, with a nonzero chance it happens this year. It’s not a move I would have made, but I think it’s easily defended, which is an evaluation I could make for pretty much everything they’ve done this offseason.
The Rays probably decided flipping a non-elite hitter for a cost controlled mlb-ready pitcher and other prospects is a good deal when the likes of Ed Nunez, Carlos Gomez and others can be had for just a few million a year on the market.
“So the Rays turned James Shields into Wil Myers, Myers into Trea Turner and Joe Ross, Turner and Ross into Souza, and Souza into Nick Solak and Anthony Banda. Okie dokie.”
Not an expert on the Rays so I’m assuming the above is correct. The Rays have already received 8.7 WAR from these deals and Shields produced 7.2 WAR after the trade while still under contract. So the Rays have already won this trade tree overall and likely spent less even if they may lose on an individual deal. Rays still have Solak and Banda that could make it even more advantageous.
Yeah, the issue isnt with the end game, but with that guy named Trea Turner in the middle of it.
Not really, since the Rays never had Ross and Turner, and it ignores how Shields collapsed soon after he was traded away, while the Rays got years of production from Souza and others. Also believe it omits Bauers as one of the acquired players (maybe others).
Basically, the tweet is wrong.
Padres are the losers there as they are the ones that got Myers and lost Turner. Any demerit Rays should get for “losing” Turner is canceled by deal that simultaneously “acquired” him. End result, Nats win big, Rays get small win, Padres take it on the chin.
…except the Pads still have Myers, who has developed into quite a solid hitter over the last few years, for solely what they gave up to the Nats (Turner/Ross).
So, for all intents and purposes, the Rays traded that Padres package to the Nats for Souza.
According to the tweet, the Rays did not have Myers to start. They did not have Turner, Souza, or Ross either. All they had was Shields’s under contract to 2014 and everything else they got sprang out of that. Rays didn’t spend much money, draft picks, or prospects. The Rays will still be getting value out of 2 years of Shields for many years.
Even though Padres have Myers still, they would prefer having Turner over Myers.
Yes…and even though the Rays have Solak and Banda still, they would prefer having Turner over Solak and Banda.
Not sure why this is tricky…
Lost in the shuffle is Jake Bauers, who the Rays got from the Padres in the Myers trade and is now a top 50 prospect.
As well as Wade Davis, Jake Odorizzi and Jermaine Palacios. Someone should have reminded Mike Axisa that there is no fact-checker to save his bacon on twitter.
Purely as a Rays fan, this sucks. You wait 6 months to watch your team, make all this mental gymnastics to put yourself in contention, and 1 week before Spring Training games your team unloads 3 players that were worth over 6 wins last year. It blows.
Now, when you take a step back, all moves are defensible, and that’s what’s great about being a Rays fan, they RARELY do anything headscratching. Odorizzi is projected to be worth around 1 win in 2018, but he’s coming of a .1 campaing and really, he’s a flyball pitcher throwing juiced balls during the fly ball revolution. Its gonna take some SERIOUS adjustments for him to return to being a 2-3 win player and for over 6 million, it wasn’t worth the shot especially as the Rays have pitching depth to give away. It was a sell low, but if you don’t believe Odo will rebound, then it’s a salary dump with a return. Everybody gets caught on the fact that Dickerson was an All Star last year, but from July 1st to the end of the season, he posted a 75 wrc+ with a sub .280 OBP. That wasn’t a fluke, Dickerson REFUSED to walk so other teams started throwing everything outside the strikezone, and he chased EVERY SINGLE TIME. He’s a strong dude, and when he made contact it was usually good contact but that didn’t happen often. At 5.5 million next year, it made sense to look for a trade partner. It’s gonna look bad if they end up losing him for nothing, but it’s better to pay 1 million rather than 5.5 if you think those 4.5 extra aren’t gonna get you to the postseason.
Finally the Souza trade. This one hurts the most since Souza really had a nice season and had the tools to build on it but this one is win curve to the max. PECOTA projects the Rays as a WC contender. My guess is that the Rays didn’t believe that, or thought of it as an absolute best case scenario, and those rarely happen. Indians, Astros, Yanks, Red Sox are all better teams so that leaves 1 playoff spot (for a play-in game). Blue Jays could rebound, Angels look solid and the Twins best case scenario is also a WC team. Why field Souza at 3 million and miss the playoffs when you can get a couple of solid prospects to build on. Banda is a legit #4 and Solak is a potential everyday player.
To end, even with this exodus, the Rays aren’t really that much worse. Eovaldi projects like Odorizzi, Span comes at .9 WAR for 2018 and Dickerson at 1 so that’s a wash. Sure, Souza’s 3 wins are gonna be hard to come by, but you just gotta hope some guys rebound. If they do, and everything goes well, the Rays are in contention with a trimmed payroll that helps towards moving to Ybor. If everything goes south, then 3 wins don’t help a lot.
I love being a Rays fan, they make sense.
Is Kiermaier Tampa’s best hitter this year?
Someone described the Rays in another thread as “trying to have no offense” and when your best hitter is projected for a league-average batting line, that seems about right.
If you go by projections, then Brad Miller is the Rays best hitter (by a REALLY small margin).
It wouldn’t surprise me if TOR making it clear that they are not retooling heading into 2018 (and their generally successful offseason-on-a-budget) influenced TB, at least a little.
Dealing with NYY and BOS is bad enough, if TOR is a 19-game opponent currently grading out as an 86 win/WC2 team that only makes it harder to sneak into the postseason this year.
If I am the Rays, I am pointing out to everyone that will listen that Tampa is actually west of Cleveland and asking for an immediate swap into the AL Central as my next “trade”.
“If there were a salary floor in the sport, based on the NBA model, it would hover around $130 million for the coming season, or 90% of the league-average payroll.”
What a weird non sequitur. If a reader knows anything about sports revenue models, they know that baseball team revenue is very different than basketball team revenue, especially given local versus national sources of revenue (baseball is far more local, based on attendance and local TV deals). Relatedly, does anyone think the Rays make 90% of the MLB league average revenue? Ugh.
If an author wants to actually do an objective explanation of the differences in sports revenue models between NBA and MLB, and how those different models might effect the goals of the MLBPA and the NBPA in collective bargaining, then by all means, talk to some qualified sports labor lawyers and economists, and then do an article about it.
I was going to bring this up, but glad you did. Rebuilders should have a $130M payroll floor? Or, saying the same thing, rebuilding should be outlawed?
I remember the New Orleans Pelicans paid Keith Van Horn $3M after he retired so he could join the team for 1 day and then promptly retire the next day so they could meet an NBA payroll floor. Florida Panthers gave Dave Bolland $27.5M over 5 years only to see him play 23 games, get injured, and then play on their minor league squad for the remaining 4 years. A payroll floor in MLB would be an awful idea.
Sports are fun to read about often because of the economics in team-building. When writers throw out cost constraints, especially in baseball where different markets have to take different team-building approaches, the articles become vapid.
And there are so many other things that go into the different revenue models which lead to how teams pay players – e.g., the NBA caps individual player salaries (most NBA fans are aware of the concept of a “max” contract).
It’s such a worthless, throwaway comment in the article.
Unless the author is actually going to tell me what TB’s net revenues, net income, and net profit are, and then make an informed argument for why TB is doing too much profit-taking rather than spending on improving the team (which may or may not be true – I don’t know!), then the question-begging narrative is just annoying.
Jeez, I had forgotten about that Keith Van Horn deal. Though that wasn’t to meet the salary floor, it was to have a contract to balance the deal to acquire Jason Kidd since NBA deals essentially require matching salaries. Aaron McKie did much the same thing that year:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/20/sports/basketball/20vanhorn.html
I wrote something, and then decided it was redundant. I agree, please ignore.
Yeah, the Rays and Marlins have revenues in the $100m range.
But, uh, the Marlins TOTALLY should have kept Stanton’s backloaded deal!!!
As much as I like the Dyson and Souza acquisitions on their own, I feel like they are kind of odd together. I assume the Dbacks will want Pollock and Souza to play almost every day. Peralta and Dyson are both much better against right-handers. When will Dyson play? Is he going to purely be a reserve outfielder? Doesn’t make much sense to platoon him with Peralta.
Aaaand now they signed Carlos Gomez, presumably to play right field. He costs a little more than Souza.
They must think they can keep grabbing 2-3 WAR outfielders on the cheap.
Banda will be a breakout. Everybody knows that Chase and Reno are horrible parks to pitch in. Pitchers new and old have all said that Desert Dry air has an effect on your secondary offerings Grip and Spin rates. Banda, while in MLB last year, had to pitch against MLBs top teams, the Dodgers and Astros plus fared well against the Giants. With him going to a more pitching friendly confines with better air density and grip, I believe his offerings will play up a lot better than Chase. All that coupled with a better, more proven, pitching development team in Tampa, I believe Banda will be a solid Starter Picthing return for years to come. As for Solak he’s in a prime position to be a quality Keystone as long as he continues to hit and with all the data, his chances look promising. When you add all that with the signing of Gomez than the Souza trade makes a lot more sense. Although, on the other hand, I believe Souza will become th next JD but with stronger Wheels but less batting avg. The last 3years combined Souza has put up an almost stronger exit velo than JD. Within Souza’s rookie and minor seasons he’s hit more HR and Triples than JD did within his years. Souza’s Power and Wheels will play much better at Chase than they did at Tropicana. Yes taking Souza you would sacrifice batting avg. but with his youth a potential for more breakout, it’s an absolute Deal for D-Backs. There getting essentially the same hitter but younger and faster. Added with the Timeframe of contention for Playoffs it makes all the more sense, for both teams
Grienkes contract,and the looming Goldschimdt payday.
Thats what controls Diamondback Dollars!
Question: how much does Kiermaier in CF affect Souza’s defensive metrics? I mean, if Kiermaier can go get practically anything, I am guessing Souza yielded to Kiermaier on more occasions than he would have with just about anyone else in CF. That would make his range look worse, no?