Daily Graphing – Neal Cotts

by
October 23, 2005

With the entire baseball world talking about Bobby Jenks' 100 mph fastball, Neal Cotts made the two most important outs of last nights World Series opener by striking out Morgan Ensberg and the red hot Mike Lamb with the tying run on 3rd base. Even though he's had a great season, posting a 1.94 ERA in 60 plus innings, did you know his once excellent strikeout and walk rate have been in a downward spiral since the All-Star break?

KBB

His rolling K/BB ratio has fallen so low, it's now in the bottom 20%. That's not the stat of a pitcher you want to rely on in the World Series. How has he kept his ERA so low then? His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) sits at .248. That is not something any pitcher can expect to sustain.

BABIP

The good news is, he's been able to keep the ball in the park, giving up 1 (yes, a single home run) all season long. Chances are that's probably not sustainable either. Even though he's a ground ball pitcher, he's far from being an extreme ground ball pitcher.

LDGBFB

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It's really unfair to say Neal Cotts has been succeeding with smoke and mirrors the entire season since he really was quite good during the first half, but the second half I think it's safe to say he was more lucky than good. Perhaps last night was the start of a reversal in his falling strikeout rate and rising walk rate.





 

David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

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