Daily Notes: Baseball Information for the Reader’s Enjoyment

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable Pacific Coast League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A Pacific Coast League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable Pacific Coast League Peformances
The leaderboards for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards.

• On Wednesday, the author sang the body Wilmer Flores (currently fifth on the prospect-age batting leaderboard below) as part of the second installment of a weekly column called The Fringe Five. In summary: he (i.e. Flores) is only 21 and controls the hell out of the strike zone.

• Kanasas City left-hander Will Smith sits atop the SCOUT pitching leaderboard, having posted a 31:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 22.0 innings. Smith, 23, actually pitched about 90 innings for the Royals last season — all in a starting capacity — and was fair, but not special. To wit: 14.9% K, 8.3% BB, 42.0% GB, 4.69 SIERA, 112 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR. There don’t appear to be any reports indicating what, if anything, Smith is doing differently this season.

• The Yusmeiro Petit who’s currently second on the pitching leaderboard below is the same Yusmeiro Petit who both (a) compiled a 429:75 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 2.76 ERA in 346.0 minor-league innings through age-20, but then (b) failed to demonstrate that sort of effectiveness at Triple-A or in the majors, largely due to a fastball that sits at 87-88 and an extreme fly-ball approach. In any case, he’s having his best Triple-A season to date. Also, fact: he’s younger than Tim Lincecum.

SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A Pacific Coast League
Previously considered: Triple-A International League (April 25) / Double-A Eastern League (April 12) / Double-A Southern League (April 16) / Double-A Texas League (April 17) / High-A Carolina League (April 22) / High-A California League (April 23) / High-A Florida State League (April 24).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard?” a reader might reasonably ask. In brief, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail. (A longer explanation is available here.)

Below, as I say, are those leaderboards for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. (Note: statistics current as of Wednesday night.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Pacific Coast League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Stephen Vogt	Athletics (AAA)	28	66	5	7	5	3.4%	9.9%	14.5%	126
Scott Van Slyke	Dodgers (AAA)	26	82	7	10	17	3.9%	10.6%	20.3%	123
Jamie Romak	Cardinals (AAA)	27	64	4	11	12	3.0%	12.0%	19.4%	119
Marc Krauss	Astros (AAA)	25	68	4	9	10	3.0%	10.8%	17.5%	119
Luke Montz	Athletics (AAA)	29	56	4	11	13	3.1%	12.4%	21.1%	117
Charlie Blackmon	Rockies (AAA)	27	64	1	10	5	2.0%	11.5%	14.7%	115
Tyler Bortnick	Diamondbacks (AAA)	25	47	1	10	5	2.2%	12.3%	17.0%	114
Shane Peterson	Athletics (AAA)	25	80	0	19	13	1.6%	15.2%	17.9%	114
Brett Hayes	Royals (AAA)	29	37	4	2	5	3.2%	8.8%	18.3%	114
Michael Choice	Athletics (AAA)	23	91	4	12	18	2.8%	11.2%	19.8%	113

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Hitters (Age 24 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Michael Choice	Athletics (AAA)	23	91	4	12	18	2.8%	11.2%	19.8%	113
Travis D’Arnaud	Mets (AAA)	24	49	1	12	8	2.1%	13.2%	18.7%	113
Nick Franklin	Mariners (AAA)	22	50	2	8	7	2.5%	11.2%	17.9%	112
Didi Gregorius	Diamondbacks (AAA)	23	33	2	2	1	2.6%	9.0%	16.2%	111
Wilmer Flores	Mets (AAA)	21	80	1	8	7	1.9%	9.7%	13.9%	109
Che-Hsuan Lin	Astros (AAA)	24	62	0	11	7	1.7%	12.1%	16.3%	109
Hunter Morris	Brewers (AAA)	24	70	4	7	15	3.0%	9.7%	20.6%	109
Mike Zunino	Mariners (AAA)	22	65	5	7	18	3.4%	10.0%	23.3%	109
Nolan Arenado	Rockies (AAA)	22	66	3	4	9	2.7%	8.4%	17.1%	108
Jurickson Profar	Rangers (AAA)	20	66	2	11	14	2.4%	11.9%	20.5%	108

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Pacific Coast League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Will Smith	Royals (AAA)	23	4	4	22.0	89	31	6	28.7%	9.1%	76
Yusmeiro Petit	Giants (AAA)	28	4	4	21.2	98	31	5	27.6%	8.8%	79
Neal Cotts	Rangers (AAA)	33	7	0	9.1	37	19	5	27.6%	9.8%	81
Blaine Boyer	Royals (AAA)	31	6	0	7.0	28	14	0	25.5%	9.1%	85
Danny Farquhar	Mariners (AAA)	26	7	0	10.1	45	17	2	25.2%	9.1%	85
Jarred Cosart	Astros (AAA)	23	4	3	17.2	67	21	5	25.0%	9.3%	86
Drew Pomeranz	Rockies (AAA)	24	3	3	16.1	68	21	5	24.9%	9.3%	87
Brian Moran	Mariners (AAA)	24	8	0	10.0	44	16	2	24.7%	9.2%	87
Cory Burns	Rangers (AAA)	25	7	0	7.2	29	13	1	24.7%	9.2%	87
Will Harris	Diamondbacks (AAA)	28	8	0	7.2	36	15	4	25.1%	9.7%	87

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Will Smith	Royals (AAA)	23	4	4	22.0	89	31	6	28.7%	9.1%	76
Yusmeiro Petit	Giants (AAA)	28	4	4	21.2	98	31	5	27.6%	8.8%	79
Jarred Cosart	Astros (AAA)	23	4	3	17.2	67	21	5	25.0%	9.3%	86
Drew Pomeranz	Rockies (AAA)	24	3	3	16.1	68	21	5	24.9%	9.3%	87
Danny Hultzen	Mariners (AAA)	23	4	4	22.2	95	25	6	23.9%	9.0%	88
Matt Magill	Dodgers (AAA)	23	4	4	19.0	78	23	14	24.9%	10.8%	90
Josh Lindblom	Rangers (AAA)	26	4	3	17.0	66	18	4	23.1%	9.1%	91
Dan Straily	Athletics (AAA)	24	3	3	18.2	75	20	6	23.3%	9.4%	91
Justin Thomas	Athletics (AAA)	29	4	4	21.2	94	23	6	22.7%	9.0%	91
Tyler Chatwood	Rockies (AAA)	23	3	3	14.2	65	17	4	22.6%	9.2%	92

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Houston at Boston | 19:10 ET
Not only does this game offer the opportunity to monitor Ryan Dempster and what could possibly be responsible for his considerable leaps both in strikeout (34.0%) and swinging-strike (14.9%) rate, but it also — and more importantly, one must say — facilitates unmitigated Robbie Grossman, who’s likely to bat leadoff and play center field. The Boston camera is also excellent.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Television*

*Note: both Bill Brown and Jim Deshaies, responsible for Houston’s excellent broadcast ratings a year-plus ago, have departed from the Astros television broadcast. The author will likely be facilitating a new round of broadcast rankings in the coming months.

Tampa Bay at Chicago NL | 20:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
For all his excellent seasons in San Diego, right-hander Jake Peavy has never posted a park-adjusted xFIP as low as the one he’s recorded through his first four starts and 25.1 innings this season. “But it’s only four starts and 25.1 innings, idiot,” perhaps a reader is saying or thinking or even already beginning to write in a comment. To which sentiment the author responds: “Pointing out my weaknesses is like shooting fish in a barrel that has been drained of water and also the barrel split open. Now there are just fish on the ground amidst the scraps of a now-broken barrel. Yeah, you can shoot those fish. But what satisfaction will you derive from it? They’re about to die, anyway.”

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio

San Francisco at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Andrew Cashner makes his second start of the season for the Padres. He was effing delightful in his first start — last weekend, also against the Giants — sitting at 95 mph with his fastball. He faces Tim Lincecum.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

Game	Teams	Starters	IP	xFIP-	WAR	—–	Line	Win%
19:05	Cincinnati Reds	Homer Bailey	25.0	85	0.4	|	2.17	45.2%
ET	Washington Nationals	Jordan Zimmermann	27.0	99	0.4	|	1.79	54.8%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	Chicago Cubs	Scott Feldman	14.0	144	-0.1	|	1.89	52.0%
ET	Miami Marlins	Wade LeBlanc	18.2	121	0.3	|	2.04	48.0%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	Philadelphia Phillies	Kyle Kendrick	24.2	93	0.3	|	2.02	48.6%
ET	New York Mets	Dillon Gee	19.2	133	-0.2	|	1.91	51.4%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:15	Pittsburgh Pirates	Jonathan Sanchez	11.1	130	-0.2	|	2.71	36.2%
ET	St. Louis Cardinals	Lance Lynn	22.0	94	0.3	|	1.54	63.8%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
21:40	Colorado Rockies	Juan Nicasio	20.1	142	-0.1	|	2.11	46.5%
ET	Arizona Diamondbacks	Brandon McCarthy	21.2	110	0.3	|	1.83	53.5%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:10	Milwaukee Brewers	Hiram Burgos	5.0	121	0.1	|	2.36	41.6%
ET	Los Angeles Dodgers	Josh Beckett	25.0	102	-0.2	|	1.68	58.4%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:10	San Francisco Giants	Tim Lincecum	22.2	111	0.0	|	1.86	52.6%
ET	San Diego Padres	Andrew Cashner	13.1	104	-0.1	|	2.07	47.4%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:05	Toronto Blue Jays	Josh Johnson	19.2	107	0.1	|	2.05	47.8%
ET	New York Yankees	Ivan Nova	14.2	93	0.4	|	1.88	52.2%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	Houston Astros	Erik Bedard	11.2	105	0.1	|	3.19	30.8%
ET	Boston Red Sox	Ryan Dempster	24.0	73	0.4	|	1.42	69.2%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	Texas Rangers	Justin Grimm	10.0	78	0.2	|	1.86	52.9%
ET	Minnesota Twins	Scott Diamond	10.1	101	0.1	|	2.08	47.1%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	Tampa Bay Rays	Roberto Hernandez	24.2	91	0.3	|	2.29	42.8%
ET	Chicago White Sox	Jake Peavy	25.1	62	0.6	|	1.71	57.2%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	Cleveland Indians	Scott Kazmir	3.1	155	-0.2	|	2.51	39.1%
ET	Kansas City Royals	Ervin Santana	29.0	85	0.5	|	1.61	60.9%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:05	Baltimore Orioles	Wei-Yin Chen	24.0	129	0.4	|	2.16	45.4%
ET	Oakland Athletics	Tommy Milone	25.1	101	0.4	|	1.79	54.6%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:10	LAA Angels	C.J. Wilson	24.0	122	-0.1	|	1.68	58.5%
ET	Seattle Mariners	Aaron Harang	9.2	106	-0.2	|	2.36	41.5%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:05	Atlanta Braves	Paul Maholm	26.1	90	0.6	|	2.15	45.6%
ET	Detroit Tigers	Anibal Sanchez	25.2	87	1.0	|	1.80	54.4%