Daily Notes, Featuring an AL West Pitchers’ Duel Event
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Featured Game: Texas at Seattle, 22:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Featured Game: Texas at Seattle, 22:10 ET
An Unavoidable Fact Regarding This Game
An unavoidable fact regarding this game is that it features very famous right-handed pitchers Yu Darvish (52.0 IP, 88 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR) of Texas and Felix Hernandez (62.2 IP, 80 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR) of Seattle.
Regarding Where “Of Texas,” Specifically
The Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, specifically. The city of Arlington, even more specifically than that.
Regarding Where “Of Seattle,” Specifically
The SoDo neighborhood, specifically. (South of Dome or Downtown, that means.)
Another Unavoidable Fact Regarding This Game
Another unavoidable fact regarding this game is that it features, in Texas, the American League’s best offense (120 wRC+ as of Sunday) and, in Seattle, its second-worst offense (84 wRC+).
Regarding What’ll Probably Happen
In terms of what’ll probably happen, Darvish will probably allow zero or one runs and Hernandez will probably allow, like, two or four runs or something. Then the Rangers bullpen, which leads the league both in xFIP and WAR, will finish the game without incident.
What’ll Definitely Happen
In terms of what’ll definitely happen is, is the above prediction will be incorrect.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast
FanGraphs readers prefer Texas Radio (link).
Other Notable Games
Kansas City at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Right-hander Felipe Paulino, who starts tonight for the Royals, has been excellent since returning from a forearm injury and the subseiquent rehab. Line so far: 18.2 IP, 28.0% K, 6.7% BB, 43.8 GB%, 2.78SIERA, 67 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Kansas City Radio.
Los Angeles NL at Arizona | 21:40 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Of note: as of Sunday, A.J. Ellis had the same WAR as Matt Kemp (2.2) in fewer plate appearances. In fact, Ellis had the 10th-best WAR in the majors.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.0.
Regard, a magnificent and sortable table:
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 3 | BAL | Tommy Hunter | 19:05 |
| Felipe Paulino* | KC | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | NYA | Hiroki Kuroda | 19:05 |
| Johan Santana | NYN | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6 | PIT | Erik Bedard | 19:05 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | PHI | Kyle Kendrick | 19:05 |
| Mike Minor | ATL | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 5 | CIN | Mike Leake | 19:10 |
| Jamie Moyer | COL | 3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | MIA | Mark Buehrle | 19:10 |
| Kyle Drabek | TOR | 4 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | TB | Jer. Hellickson | 19:10 |
| Matt Garza | CHN | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | HOU | Bud Norris | 20:05 |
| Mad. Bumgarner | SF | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | MIL | Randy Wolf | 20:10 |
| Clayton Richard | SD | 5 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 7 | STL | Jaime Garcia | 20:15 |
| Chris Capuano | LAN | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | AZ | Patrick Corbin | 21:40 |
| Jerome Williams | LAA | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | OAK | Tommy Milone | 22:05 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 7 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 7 | SEA | Felix Hernandez | 22:10 |
To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I’m gonna go ahead and call Yu 6.2IP 5ER 2BB 6K, Felix 9.0IP 1ER 3BB 8K.
That is a very interesting choice. I would guess that switching their lines would be more likely, considering the offenses involved. Regardless, it should be a fun game to watch.
Rangers usually have had success against Felix in the past. Felix owns a career 4.03 ERA against the Rangers in 203.1 IP.
In 16 games over the years in Arlington, the Rangers have managed a .739 OPS against Felix, which is 24% worse than his career line. And he didn’t look good in his last start, so…. Yeah, I’d definitely give the edge to Yu this time around.
If you want to talk pitcher-vs-team splits, I got one for Yu Darvish and the Seattle Mariners right here… let’s forget the notion that the letters on the Rangers’ uniforms somehow make them better against Felix, mmk?
The Rangers are better than the Mariners. Yu Darvish has not yet proven himself to be as good as the King. Let’s leave it at that.
1. Never said Darvish is as good as Felix
2. 5.1 IP sample vs 200+ IP sample…. hmmmmm. Yeah, the two are the same things.
I just got back. Turned on the game. Top of the fifth. Darvish has given up five runs. Are you a genie?
Inning, a BB, and a K off with the King, 2 innings, 4 BB, and a K off with Darvish. No one thought the one true King would beat the small Japanese one!
Pretty close right! Ha to those who doubted the mighty king! And my prediction!
good prediction, man, that was pretty accurate
Seattle’s “sodo” neighborhood is short for “south docks”. After a long stretch of perfect spring weather, rain has returned to Seattle for tonight’s game.
Carson: If you’re going to repeat most sub-headings in the following sentence, please do so in another language. It’ll be less annoying and I can actually learn something with all those extra letters. Your signal-to-noise verbiage ratio is approaching William F. Buckley territory and I fear for your soul.
If Texas and Seattle with Darvish and Hernandez pitching is a NERD score of 7, what is a 10? Is it because Seattle isn’t contending that the game isn’t higher? Also, I’m not sure how Darvish, or Felix for that matter, are only 7’s as well.
According to the link that explains how GameNerd is calculated, this is the equation. Home starter NERD is marked HSPN, Home team NERD is marked HTN, Away uses “A” instead of “H”
((3HSPN)+(HTN)+(3ASPN)+(ATN))/8. Round to nearest integer.
So using the above values, you have (21+4+21+10)/8, or 56/8 = 7.
As for the other part, Team NERD scores are calculated using math that makes my head hurt (I can do it, but I don’t enjoy it, so I’m not going to re-attempt it here). Just know that it involves standard deviations of the following components: batting runs above average, park-adjusted HRs per flyball rate, speed score, bullpen xFIP (lower is better), team UZR, team payroll (below average is better), batter age (younger is better), and WAR-expected-wins minus actual wins.
Pitcher NERD scores are calculated using similar math, but the components are xFIP (lower is better), swinging-strike percentage, overall strike percentage, fastball velocity, age (younger is better), ERA minus xFIP, and gives a bonus to knuckleballers.
In this case, the Rangers are young, but not that young; they hit a lot of HRs, but not considering that park, their defense is acceptable but not spectacular in most positions, and they aren’t vastly underperforming their WAR. The Mariners pen and ah…other interesting factors…do make them low. Felix is good, but he’s not throwing 100, he’s not throwing knuckleballs, and he’s not inducing a swinging strike percentage too much above average. Likewise with Yu.
To follow up, for a 10, you’d actually need the weighted average to be greater than or equal to 9.5.
The simplest way would be one team with a 10 NERD, one team with a 9 NERD, one SP with a 10 NERD, and one SP with a 9 NERD. That comes out to 76/8, or 9.5 –> 10.
Jesus. Is it just me, or is this writer completely unreadable?
Every damn day, this is borderline pathetic.
Sorry, folks, statheads and non, alike, but this is trash.
“Regarding what I had regarded prior, in regards to what I was regarding…”
As handsome and charming as I am, actual writing talent is very much a secondary consideration.
I absolutely believe you are the handsomest (or most handsome) man in the land. But you are also, easily, the least legible, readable, and digestible. I suggest a 5th grade grammar lesson, but I have a feeling, that the plethora of numbers available to you, and the accompanying cachet have eliminated the need for improvement. Nevertheless, your writing is atrocious.
Please try harder. Only because you do this daily.
I can’t help it. I’m the Voice of a Generation.
That it’s a generation starting ca. 40 years from now, I can’t help that.
Cleverness is never an appropriate tool for avoidance. You are not ahead of your time, and neither was Malcolm Lowry. Decent writing is decent writing. Decency is all I ask. Take care, fellow.
Okay.
It’d be easy to say you don’t get it. So I assume you do get it, and you don’t particularly care for it. So if you want to read this (if you don’t, then don’t read it), just click the subheading links in the Table of Contents and go to the part you want. The Cistulli-isms are only after the vital information, I promise.