Daily Notes: Featuring an Idle Thought on Imperfection

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. An Idle Thought on Imperfection
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

An Idle Thought on Imperfection
Inspecting Tuesday’s single-game xFIP leaderboard (among starting pitchers only) — a thing which is now possible after FanGraphs CEO and star of every nightmare David Appelman added a “Yesterday” split to the leaderboards here at the site — one is not surprised, in the wake of his 14-strikeout effort against Houston, to find Yu Darvish’s name at the top.

One is also compelled to note in how many ways Darvish’s game was imperfect — an imperfection that is amplified, undoubtedly, for its proximity to perfection.

First, here’s the table in question:

Name	Team	IP	xFIP
Yu Darvish	Rangers	8.2	0.02
Marco Estrada	Brewers	5.0	1.80
Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	6.1	1.99
Hisashi Iwakuma	Mariners	6.0	2.11
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	8.0	2.89
Trevor Cahill	Diamondbacks	5.2	2.98
David Price	Rays	6.0	3.48
Lucas Harrell	Astros	6.0	3.76
R.A. Dickey	Blue Jays	6.0	4.48
Jorge de la Rosa	Rockies	4.1	4.53
Jaime Garcia	Cardinals	5.2	4.57
Justin Masterson	Indians	6.0	4.85
Jason Hammel	Orioles	6.0	5.13
Jarrod Parker	Athletics	5.0	6.65

One already knows that Darvish came within one out of a perfect game, and one hit of a no-hitter. After being relieved by Michael Kirkman in the wake of Marwin Gonzalez‘ single, he also (i.e. Darvish) came just an out shy of a complete-game shutout. Of some amusement to the sort of nerd who is reading these words is also how xFIP — an otherwise entirely innocent ERA estimator — compounds the sense of imperfection by suggesting that Darvish’s line would typically be the sort to concede not zero, but 0.02, runs. “You were very good,” says xFIP (impossible, of course, it being inanimate). “But perfect? Not so much.”

It is too convenient, given Darvish’s origins, that the author was recently introduced to the concept of wabi-sabi. So far as I understand it — and it’s very possible that I don’t understand it — wabi-sabi is a popular aesthetic point-of-view in Japan, by the terms of which an object might be considered beautiful because it is flawed, or at least by the way in which it is flawed.

I’ve witnessed enough foolish romanticization and willful misunderstanding of “exotic” Eastern concepts to recognize that I’m unqualified to discuss wabi-sabi at length. But even the likely bastardized version I’ve submitted here is compelling on its own terms, I think.

Perfect games are inherently interesting for two reasons. First, is because a pitcher is always trying to get every batter out, anyway. When he succeeds in actually doing that, it represents an instance of one player having exerted his will completely on a group of others. Second, of course, is because of how infrequent perfect games are. There’ve been only, what, 23 of them ever in the majors? That’s a small fraction of the games ever to have been played. Perfect games are rare, and rare things and events are generally attractive for their rare-ness.

Ultimately, though, those reasons have no relation to the spectator’s own personal experience of the event, or relationship with it — which are ultimately the terms on which one is likely to evaluate the “beauty” of an event or object. In the way that, according to Tolstoy, unhappy families are unhappy in their own way, so are imperfect events or objects imperfect in their own way. This makes them even more rare, really, than their perfect counterparts.

“Why are you even talking about this?” is a reasonable question for the reader to ask right now. “I don’t precisely know,” is the most reasonable answer. One other possible answer, though, is probably how an event like this — where one, like Darvish, has come very close to scaling the heights of perfection, but failed — seems to demand commentary. Perfection speaks for itself, perhaps, whereas failure needs to be couched within a narrative, such that the spectator can become comfortable with its otherwise potentially painful or disappointing implications. Because failure is more of the rule, anyway, than success — and failures, like Darvish’s, which occur on a large stage, are the ones to which we look for cues on how to make our own failures more palatable. That’s probably why I, personally, am talking about this.

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Detroit at Minnesota | 16:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
All 31 writers who contributed to the present site’s staff predictions for 2013 chose the Tigers as the probable winner of the AL Central. That same club finished with the highest cumulative projected win total by the methodology used in our positional power rankings. With regard to this game in particular, Anibal Sanchez (179.0 IP, 4.05 ERA, 2.7 WAR projected line, per Steamer) faces Kevin Correia (130.0 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.1 WAR).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

San Diego at New York NL | 19:10 ET
In 10 starts last season, Mets right-hander Matt Harvey (147.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 2.4 WAR projected line, per Steamer) struck out nearly 29% of the batters he faced. He also finished withing the top-10 of this spring’s SCOUT pitching leaderboard — an accomplishment that translated into success for last spring’s pitching leaders. He faces Clayton Richard (189.0 IP, 3.89 ERA, 2.8 WAR).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

Colorado at Milwaukee | 19:10 ET
Young and hard-throwing Juan Nicasio (118.0 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.9 WAR projected line, per Steamer) faces even younger and more hard-throwing Wily Peralta (95.0 IP, 4.56 ERA, 1.0 WAR).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of Tuesday’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games listed in Pacific Time for reasons that are unclear even to the author and presented in order, first, of National League and then American League and, finally, then interleague play.

Game	Teams	Starters	Line	Win%
4:05 PM	Miami Marlins	Kevin Slowey	3.36	29.2%
PT	Washington Nationals	Gio Gonzalez	1.39	70.8%
—	—	—	—	—
4:05 PM	Chicago Cubs	Edwin Jackson	2.20	44.6%
PT	Pittsburgh Pirates	Wandy Rodriguez	1.77	55.4%
—	—	—	—	—
4:10 PM	San Diego Padres	Clayton Richard	2.28	43.0%
PT	New York Mets	Matt Harvey	1.72	57.0%
—	—	—	—	—
4:10 PM	Philadelphia Phillies	Roy Halladay	2.15	45.6%
PT	Atlanta Braves	Paul Maholm	1.80	54.4%
—	—	—	—	—
5:10 PM	Colorado Rockies	Juan Nicasio	2.15	45.6%
PT	Milwaukee Brewers	Wily Peralta	1.80	54.4%
—	—	—	—	—
6:40 PM	St. Louis Cardinals	Lance Lynn	2.04	48.0%
PT	Arizona Diamondbacks	Brandon McCarthy	1.89	52.0%
—	—	—	—	—
7:10 PM	San Francisco Giants	Tim Lincecum	2.16	45.4%
PT	Los Angeles Dodgers	Josh Beckett	1.79	54.6%
—	—	—	—	—
11:10 AM	Kansas City Royals	Ervin Santana	2.32	42.3%
PT	Chicago White Sox	Jake Peavy	1.70	57.7%
—	—	—	—	—
11:10 AM	Texas Rangers	Alexi Ogando	1.56	63.0%
PT	Houston Astros	Philip Humber	2.65	37.0%
—	—	—	—	—
1:10 PM	Detroit Tigers	Anibal Sanchez	1.67	58.6%
PT	Minnesota Twins	Kevin Correia	2.37	41.4%
—	—	—	—	—
4:05 PM	Cleveland Indians	Ubaldo Jimenez	2.61	37.6%
PT	Toronto Blue Jays	Brandon Morrow	1.57	62.4%
—	—	—	—	—
4:05 PM	Boston Red Sox	Clay Buchholz	2.04	48.0%
PT	New York Yankees	Hiroki Kuroda	1.89	52.0%
—	—	—	—	—
4:10 PM	Baltimore Orioles	Wei-Yin Chen	2.27	43.2%
PT	Tampa Bay Rays	Jeremy Hellickson	1.73	56.8%
—	—		—	—
7:05 PM	Seattle Mariners	Joe Saunders	2.27	43.2%
PT	Oakland Athletics	Tommy Milone	1.73	56.8%
—	—		—	—
4:10 PM	LAA Angels	C.J. Wilson	2.15	45.6%
PT	Cincinnati Reds	Mat Latos	1.80	54.4%