Daily Notes: Ft. A Count of Every Club’s Meaningless Games
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. A Count of Every Club’s Meaningless Games
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
A Statistical Update on Players in Deadline Deals
Introduction
With four days remaining in the major-league regular season, only three clubs — Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Texas — possess some manner of playoff odds that aren’t either 0.0% or 100.0%. Some teams (Kansas City, New York AL) have only just been eliminated from a possible postseason berth; others (Chicago AL, Houston, Miami) have possessed playoff odds of 0% for over a month.
What the author has done, in the table below, is to calculate the number of meaningless games every major-league team will have played by the end of the season — where meaningless indicates games played while the team in question has possessed either a 0% or 100% chance of making the playoffs, per Cool Standings. Note that this is different, probably by a little bit, than what is frequently referred to as “mathematical elimination,” but (a) is another, pretty similar type of mathematical elimination and also (b) was easier to calculate, as the author’s internet browser happened already to be pointed to Cool Standings.
Table: Every Team’s Meaningless Games
Here’s a record of every team’s meaningless games, as calculated using the methodology above. Date represents the date since which the relevant club has possessed playoff odds of either a 0% or 100%. W and L represent that club wins and losses, respectively, on the date in question. MG is the number of meaningless games the club will have played by the end of the season. MG% is the percentage of the relevant club’s 162 regular season games played with either a 0% or 100% chance of making the playoffs.
| Club | Date | W | L | MG | MG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 14-Jul | 33 | 61 | 68 | 42.0% |
| White Sox | 3-Aug | 40 | 68 | 54 | 33.3% |
| Marlins | 9-Aug | 43 | 71 | 48 | 29.6% |
| Twins | 28-Aug | 57 | 73 | 32 | 19.8% |
| Mariners | 28-Aug | 59 | 72 | 31 | 19.1% |
| Cubs | 26-Aug | 55 | 76 | 31 | 19.1% |
| Brewers | 31-Aug | 59 | 75 | 28 | 17.3% |
| Giants | 3-Sep | 61 | 76 | 25 | 15.4% |
| Phillies | 4-Sep | 63 | 76 | 23 | 14.2% |
| Padres | 5-Sep | 62 | 77 | 23 | 14.2% |
| Mets | 7-Sep | 63 | 77 | 22 | 13.6% |
| Rockies | 7-Sep | 66 | 76 | 20 | 12.3% |
| Blue Jays | 10-Sep | 67 | 76 | 19 | 11.7% |
| Angels | 13-Sep | 70 | 76 | 16 | 9.9% |
| Red Sox | 14-Sep | 91 | 59 | 12 | 7.4% |
| Dodgers | 19-Sep | 87 | 65 | 10 | 6.2% |
| Braves | 21-Sep | 91 | 62 | 9 | 5.6% |
| D-backs | 21-Sep | 77 | 76 | 9 | 5.6% |
| Athletics | 21-Sep | 91 | 63 | 8 | 4.9% |
| Cardinals | 22-Sep | 91 | 65 | 6 | 3.7% |
| Orioles | 25-Sep | 81 | 76 | 5 | 3.1% |
| Nationals | 23-Sep | 84 | 73 | 5 | 3.1% |
| Pirates | 23-Sep | 90 | 67 | 5 | 3.1% |
| Reds | 23-Sep | 90 | 67 | 5 | 3.1% |
| Yankees | 26-Sep | 82 | 76 | 4 | 2.5% |
| Tigers | 25-Sep | 92 | 66 | 4 | 2.5% |
| Royals | 26-Sep | 83 | 75 | 4 | 2.5% |
| Rays | — | — | — | N/A | N/A |
| Indians | — | — | — | N/A | N/A |
| Rangers | — | — | — | N/A | N/A |
| Average* | 8-Sep | 71.4 | 71.1 | 19.5 | 12.0% |
*Average doesn’t include three active clubs.
Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
TBD at TBD | ??:?? ET
As of press time, the identity of today’s free game had as yet to be revealed.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Unknown.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire.
Note that these NERD scores are calculated using the methodology introduced recently and designed to account for the influence of playoff odds on the watchability of games. ***Unlike in recent iterations of this table, the author has adjusted the day’s NERD Game Scores such that, combined, they average 5.0.*** This allows said table to resemble more closely the Game Scores that have appeared here over the preceding four months.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Cahill | AZ | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | SD | Robbie Erlin | 18:40 |
| Alex Cobb | TB | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6 | NYA | Ivan Nova | 19:05 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | WAS | M. Gonzalez | 19:05 |
| John Hellweg | MIL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | NYN | Dillon Gee | 19:10 |
| Tyler Cloyd | PHI | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 | ATL | David Hale* | 19:10 |
| Jerome Williams | LAA | 4 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 6 | TEX | Matt Garza | 20:05 |
| Zach McAllister | CLE | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 3 | MIN | Andrew Albers | 20:10 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | CHA | Andre Rienzo | 20:10 |
| Edinson Volquez | LAN | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | SF | Tim Lincecum | 22:15 |
To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Meaningless for the team in relation to the playoffs, not meaningless for players trying to keep their jobs. I suspect that this last start for Lincecum will be very, very important to him and his free agency.