Daily Notes: Mostly Regarding Tony Cingrani’s First Start Ever

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Miami at Cincinnati, 19:10 ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Featured Game: Miami at Cincinnati, 19:10 ET
Regarding This Game, Its Significance
The significance of this game — or part of its significance, at least — is how it represents the first ever major-league start for Cincinnati left-hander Tony Cingrani.

Regarding Tony Cingrani, Who That Is
Tony Cingrani is a pitcher who, prior to this season, posted entirely above-average minor-league numbers and, for three starts this season, has posted improbably excellent minor-league numbers.

Regarding Tony Cingrani, His Line Prior to This Season
Here’s Tony Cingrani’s minor-league line between 2011 and -12: 197.1 IP, 33.1% K, 7.6% BB, 1.73 ERA.

Regarding Tony Cingrani, His Line During This Season
Here’s Tony Cingrani’s line through three Triple-A starts this season (one of them truncated in preparation for today’s start): 14.1 IP, 54.2% K, 4.2% BB, 0.00 ERA.

Regarding Cingrani, His Repertoire
Unlike basically every starter who has success at the major-league level, Cingrani is heavily reliant on his fastball, having thrown the pitch, for example, over 90% of the time last season while facing 22 batters following a late-season promotion.

A Second Point Regarding Cingrani’s Repertoire
A second point regarding Cingrani’s repertoire is how he seems, according to J.D. Sussman, to have developed a curveball since last season — a pitch that, if not necessarily capable of doing much in terms of inducing whiffs, might at least complement his fastball.

A Point That Oughtn’t Be Ignored
A point which the reader will ignore at his or her own peril is that the very young and very talented Jose Fernandez is starting this game for Miami.

Fernandez’s Line This Year
Here’s Jose Fernandez’s line through two starts this season — his first ever (a) in the majors and also (b) above High-A ball: 11.0 IP, 31.7% K, 7.3% BB, 60.0% BB, 2.50 SIERA, 65 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR.

Action Footage: Jose Fernandez’s Changeup
Here’s action footage of Jose Fernandez’s changeup:


Action Footage: Jose Fernandez’s Curveball
Here’s action footage of Jose Fernandez’s curveball:


Broadcast Information
FanGraphs readers appear to prefer the Cincinanti Radio broadcast among all those available for this game.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Chicago AL at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Is it possible that the author would use this brief preview of today’s MLB.TV free game between the White Sox and Blue Jays as an opportunity not only to (a) remind the reader that he (i.e. that same author) predicted before the season that Conor Gillaspie would win the American League Rookie of the Year award, but also to (b) note how that same Conor Gillaspie is currently leading all American League rookies in WAR? One never knows, of course, but the contingency is possible.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

***Note: because no odds were available for them on Wednesday night, the Texas-Chicago NL (14:20 ET, Alexi Ogando vs. Carlos Villanueva) and New York NL-Colorado (15:10 ET, Jon Niese vs. Jon Garland) games are omitted from the following.***

Game Teams Starters Line Win%
13:10 San Francisco Giants Matt Cain 1.74 56.4%
ET Milwaukee Brewers Yovani Gallardo 2.25 43.6%
19:05 St. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright 1.97 49.8%
ET Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels 1.95 50.2%
19:05 Atlanta Braves Julio Teheran 1.80 54.4%
ET Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Locke 2.15 45.6%
19:10 Miami Marlins Jose Fernandez 2.42 40.5%
ET Cincinnati Reds Tony Cingrani 1.65 59.5%
15:40 Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander 1.63 60.3%
ET Seattle Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma 2.47 39.7%
19:05 Chicago White Sox Chris Sale 2.15 45.6%
ET Toronto Blue Jays R.A. Dickey 1.80 54.4%
19:05 Tampa Bay Rays David Price 1.80 54.4%
ET Baltimore Orioles Miguel Gonzalez 2.15 45.6%
19:05 Boston Red Sox Jon Lester 1.77 55.4%
ET Cleveland Indians Zach McAllister 2.20 44.6%
19:05 Arizona Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin 2.04 48.0%
ET New York Yankees Phil Hughes 1.89 52.0%

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Bluebird in Boulder
11 years ago

So with the Reds facing the MAAArlins I am guessing that his minor league rate stats are highly representative of the kinds of numbers he will be expected put up today?

11 years ago

The Daily Notes comments rarely get enough traffic to get five favorable votes, so I think this post deserves some recognition for pithiness; which is the purpose of this comment. Well done.