Dallas Keuchel’s Attempts to Adjust Back

Just a couple weeks back, Dave Cameron examined the things that should worry us about Dallas Keuchel. He was more nuanced, but we could break it down into three components: lower velocity, fewer calls on the black, and fewer swings. For a guy that had the third-lowest zone percentage in baseball last year, the latter two seem hugely important for his success. So I asked the Astros’ lefty what he’s doing about those things.

Lower Velocity

Asking a pitcher about velocity is a delicate thing. Big increases mean whispers, and big declines mean… whispers of another sort. And then there’s the brutal march of time that fritters away our athleticism, day by day. You walk on egg shells.

But they know their radar-gun readings. And though age should have stolen about a tick from Keuchel, it looks like he’s down more than a tick and a half on the radar gun, from 89.6 mph last year to 88.0 this year. But that’s comparing all of last year to this year’s April, and also ignoring a slight uptick in recent games. If you compare last week’s velocity to last year’s April velocity, Keuchel is only down 0.8 mph, well in the normal range for a 28-year-old pitcher.

The awkwardness remained, though, because we both knew he was down a bit, and he didn’t want to give excuses. But he had to admit that the “amount of work” he’s put in over the last couple of years “has to be taken into account.” After averaging 174 innings the three years prior, Keuchel averaged 223 the last two years.

The adjustment? A little less throwing. “Just now recently, I’ve decided to work smarter,” Keuchel told me before a game against the Athletics, “instead of the same routine over and over again, where I wear myself out in between starts, and then I’m not physically ready to go.” It’s hard to test that theory against all of baseball, but at least the lefty himself is up just under a full mile per hour over his last three games set against his first three games.

Fewer Calls on the Black

Calls on the edge of the plate must be at least one part command and another part framing, unless the particular umpires Keuchel has faced have been anomalous. Keuchel didn’t really speculate on the second parts, but the move from Jason Castro and Hank Conger to Jason Castro exclusively shouldn’t really produce a sea change, especially when Castro currently leads the league in Baseball Prospectus’ catcher-framing stats.

Here, Keuchel put the blame on himself. “I haven’t felt as connected with my mechanics as I have the last two years,” he admitted. “When that comes, I should be able to get more consistent command.” So here’s the easy answer for why he’s not getting as many calls on the edge of the strike zone and low: he’s not throwing it in places where he might get as many calls on the edge.

Dallas Keuchel’s Falling Edge Percentage
Year Inside Edge% Outside Edge% Total Horizontal Edge% Top Edge% Bottom Edge% Total Edge% Edge/Heart Ratio
2013 10.38% 7.50% 17.88% 2.91% 5.67% 26.46% 1.3
2014 7.89% 7.69% 15.57% 2.19% 7.19% 24.95% 1.3
2012 7.72% 8.51% 16.23% 2.38% 5.84% 24.46% 1.3
2015 8.23% 8.00% 16.24% 1.69% 6.00% 23.92% 1.5
2016 9.58% 7.35% 16.93% 2.08% 4.63% 23.64% 1.2
SOURCE: Bill Petti
The ‘Edge’ is a three-inch band just inside the borders of the strike zone.

While Keuchel is throwing to the horizontal edges about the same, he’s having trouble hitting the bottom edge so far.

It might have something to do with pitch mix. He’s gone away from the sinker — with which he was great at painting the outside corner — and he’s throwing more cutters, which was something he had planned because he has “a better feel” for that pitch now.

The move to the cutter was one part choice, and one part necessity, though. “More times this year, guys have been looking out over the plate, and no matter how good that sinker is, guys are looking for that pitch and they know the movement on it, so I have to adjust to it,” Keuchel said.

KeuchelSwingvR

It’s not all about the outside corner, but you can see above that it does look like righties have been hanging out over and down a little more this year (on the right). They know Keuchel’s plan, and they’re trying to adjust to him.

The cutter has led to more whiffs — the most of his career so far — but while the sinker gets nearly eight ground balls per fly ball, the cutter has only elicited fewer than two grounders per fly ball, and features worse line-drive and home-run rates to boot.

Fewer Swings

The biggest adjustment batters have made against Keuchel, though, is to stop swinging. Keuchel is coaxing the second-fewest swings of his career, and he’s noticed. “It was cold in Milwaukee and New York, and that has something to do with it, but they were more patient, too,” he said.

Swing Percentage vs Dallas Keuchel by Game
Game Opponent Swing%
5/2/16 MIN 34.0%
4/26/16 @SEA 43.0%
4/21/16 @TEX 53.5%
4/15/16 DET 47.2%
4/10/16 @MIL 34.0%
4/5/16 @NYY 42.5%
Career average = 43.6%

Of course the answer would have to be throwing more to the zone. Which he is, barely, up to 42.9% from 40.1%. So now he’s only the seventh-least likely pitcher to throw the ball in the strike zone.

But he thinks the battleground is not necessarily every pitch — “They’re forcing me to throw strike one,” he said. Which is weird, considering his overall first-pitch swing rate, year to year.

First-Pitch Swing Percentage vs Dallas Keuchel by Year
Year First Pitch Swing%
2012 23.3%
2013 24.7%
2014 26.2%
2015 25.1%

In any case, the swing/don’t swing decision is something about which Keuchel is thinking. “If they want to wait me out, then I attack early, and then move myself out,” he said. “Some teams are more patient than others, some teams will swing no matter what. The teams that swing the most are the teams you can take advantage of early on. The more zone-control teams, I have take advantage of them being more patient.”

In the games this year in which the team swung more often than Keuchel’s career rate (Texas and Detroit), the lefty threw 64% first-pitch strikes. In the rest of his games, he’s thrown 56% first-pitch strikes. So there’s something to what he’s saying about in-game adjustments to aggressive teams, but it’s on the level of a first pitch or two a game.

There’s a lot of back and forth in baseball, and so it’s hard to make sense of all of this in a coherent way. The velocity is a worry, but he’s since gotten some of that back. The swing rate is a bit of a worry, but that seems to fluctuate game to game.

So, in the end, the thing that is most different about Keuchel is that he’s seen hitters leaning over the plate and has responded with a cutter. He’s going to have to figure out how to use that cutter for more strikeouts to offset the lower ground-ball rate, and also how to command that pitch just a little bit better, to reduce the walks.

Well, that doesn’t seem so bad anymore, does it? Maybe the pitcher has convinced us it’s all within his abilities to adjust back once again?





With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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jkaflagg
7 years ago

Very interesting article, a veteran pitcher with less than dominating stuff discussing the subtle nuances that can make the difference between a solid outing and getting bombed. Glad he mentioned his workload over the past few seasons and his subsequent adjustment; I felt this was a key factor in his being slightly off and thus more hittable. Listening to this discussion makes me think that Keuchel is the kind of guy who will find a way, with a willingness to change and adjust if needed. Sounds simple, but a lot of pitchers stubbornly refuse to adjust when their stuff begins to inevitably back up, and before you know it they’re gone.