Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/21/21

Dan Szymborski: And hello happy chatters, for this edition of SzymChat that appeared on the front page!

TD: Assuming the Mets have about $25m to spend, how would you distribute that money to improve the roster?

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d sign Justin Turner for $10 million and pay myself $15 million. It improves the roster.

Dan: Finally got on for one of your chats this year…

Can you do the ZiPS “what-if” I’ve been nagging you about for a decade, Bonds if he hadn’t been a victim of collusion in ’07?

I’m guessing ~50 more homers, ~135 OPS+ in three seasons.

Dan Szymborski: It’s only like the third one!

Dan Szymborski: He *was* quite old at this point so even if he hadn’t declined, it was going to happen. I can to a Time Warp on tha tthough.

Dan: Has ZiPS included indy leagues ever in a projection for a player and/or have rough equivalent levels for different indy leagues?

What’s the lowest level of baseball Zips has worked with?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. They’re very low.

Dan Szymborski: I can do college stats, but I only do it if I MUST

Dan Szymborski: like when Weeks

Dan Szymborski: or that Reds reliever whose name completely escapes me at hte moment

Dan Szymborski: RYAN WAGNER!

Dan Szymborski: (This was pre-official ZiPS, but I was still running these)

Doug: How much should we read in to Brand Hand’s velo dip? Still was great last year of course.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a concern, especially as it was the second year in a row. What’s a REALLY big concern is the fact that you pair that with the fact that he very suddenly lost a quarter of his swinging strikes in one fell swoop

Cave Dameron: Dan, why are you so very cool? Thank you!

Dan Szymborski: I keep the thermostat set fairly low and usually have a window cracked even in the winter when I sleep.

Dan Szymborski: My normal body temperature is just a hair above 97, but that’s genetic; my mom, sister and my mom’s father have the same.

Dan Szymborski: (Well, had in the case of my grandfather, his is obviously quite low now)

Dan Szymborski: I once asked him how long his body temperature was just above 96. He replied “I was farther from being dead 30 years ago.”

Joe: How close does Musgrove get the Padres to the Dodgers in your projections?

Dan Szymborski: Neck-and-neck; it really comes down to assumptions.

Dan Szymborski: Musgrove isn’t a huge bump simply because the padres were already so good

Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re a first baseman, you’re not even replacing below-average innings/PAs when you join the Padres now.

Guest: If you were Ross Atkins what moves would you make to make an already good offseason great?

Dan Szymborski: BAUER

Dan Szymborski: And yeah, there are some headaches, but it’s not like you can call the ace pitcher factory and ask them “hey, do you have this in not-obnoxious-on-social-media?”

Twins front office: JA Happ for $8M. Do you like the deal? What can we expect from Happ (performance in playoffs, leadership, etc.)??

Dan Szymborski: It’s reasonable. He’s just there to eat some innings and to store milk properly in MERKAN GALLON CONTAINERS not those Canuck bags. He can do both.

Mike: Can the Angels have a successful offseason without signing Bauer?

Dan Szymborski: I can have a successful portfolio if I don’t win Mega Millions. But danged if it’s easier if I do!

Kyler: Who is the Braves opening day LF? Surely they won’t bring back Markakis haha. Adam Duvall? Marcell Ozuna? lol. Someone else?

Dan Szymborski: The REALLY ought to bring back Ozuna

Roger: What is your pick for the most likely World Series matchup?

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to say Padres/Yankees. Dodgers/Yankees is pretty much equally as likely, but I said it last year and I don’t like doing reruns if I can avoid it

Slapshot: What chances would you give the NL having a DH in play for 2021?  Along those lines, do you think the DH in the NL should become a permanent thing after last year’s experiment, or should it stay a league where pitchers get to hit?

Dan Szymborski: 10%. Something would have to happen quickly.

Dan Szymborski: Bu tI do think that it’ll happen permanently.

Ben: If a batter literally never swung at a pitch (and opposing pitchers knew this and tried to always thrown down the middle of the strike zone), how often do you think they would walk? And are there any pitchers (like Johnny Cueto with his career .103/.128/.105 slash line) would would have been better off with this approach?

Dan Szymborski: I think in this particular scenario, size matters.

Bighen: I was surprised by how positive ZIPS was on Springers defense going forward.  Does Dan agree with that or ??  A number of other analysts including some on FG are not too hot on his prospects in CF.  I think either Ben or one of the other guys wasn’t sure he could even get through this coming season there.

Dan Szymborski: I’m less hot than ZiPS. But ZiPS is a bunch of hopefully well thought out algorithms, not a bunch of hopefully well thought out algorithms plus my thumb!

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t add my thumb even if it made the projections better.

Chris: Do the big names in sports reporting just use the same source (each other as source)? Or what? How’d they drop the ball on brantley so badly?

Dan Szymborski: It varies. Everyone has their own list of people they talk to.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not really a source accumulator simply because I’m not a reporter. I probably talk to people in baseball more about *non* baseball things than baseball things!

Dan Szymborski: As an analyst, I’m very careful at playing favorites.

Dan Szymborski: For example, I don’t call up David and have a pow-wow whenever I’m talking Padres. I don’t think we’ve had *any* exchanges about Padres moves in two years.

Dan Szymborski: Every journalist sees their role differently and ought to be true to their philosophy.

Dan Szymborski: *I* try to be as objective as I can possibly be and see my role as a journalist as an adversarial one, whether I agree or disagree with the front office generally. I seek to inflict the comfortable.

Dan Szymborski: If the Rockies do something smart and I still make fun of them for it, then I don’t see myself as competent for my job.

Appa Yip Yip: It sure is swell when your team tries to be good.

Dan Szymborski: It is. More teams should try it.

Ridiculous Trade Ideas: Vlad Guerrero Jr. for Luis Castillo: who says no?

Dan Szymborski: That’s actually kind of a fun trade.

Fernando Tatis-Buck Jr.: Impact of Wong and Kiké to mets?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think *huge* but they’d have roles

Dan Szymborski: I’d much prefer McNeil/Lindor/Wong left to right over Davis/Lindor/McNeil

clevsteelengines: Danny Santana doesn’t have a team or his health. Arguably was a top 150 player who has now fallen off the board.  Does he still have his value when he returns?  Or was he a product of the Rangers running and the hot air in globe life?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s heading into the Wes Helms/Ron Coomer stage of his career.

Adam: Any chance the PA and owners just extend the CBA by a year just to get some distance from the pandemic?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a great feel where they currently are. But I’d see this as a good thing.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the players have some real concerns, but this is an awful environment to re-do the CBA.

Dbo: Have you tried the Cheetos Mac and cheese yet?

Dan Szymborski: No. I like real cheese.

Appa Yip Yip: The Odd Couple but it’s you and ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: I can see the teaser “One’s a dough middle-aged man who is incompetent at most things in life. The other’s a set of algorithms.What will happen when they go in on a Five Guys franchise together?”

Dan Szymborski: One Guy, a Non-Parametric Model, and a Burger Place

DJ: Do you think any team in the NL Central will commit to a contract >$20 million in total value for a free agent this off-season? If so, which team is most likely to “make a splash”?

Dan Szymborski: No

YardGoat: Are you surprised that Springer got $150M in this particular offseason? Seems to be more than any team was expected to spend post-2020

Dan Szymborski: I’m not TOO surprised. I think this is the offseason we really start to see non-linearity in wins push through.

Dan Szymborski: But I’m mildly suprised that everyone didn’t chicken out

Dosh Jonaldson: Hi Dan, looks like Toronto’s offseason plan is well under way. At this juncture, and assuming they could only add 2 more players to their roster, is there any combination of generally available players (either by trade or FA) who would push them past the Yankees in the team WAR projections? Part 2 of this question is how close do you think they’ll get to the Yankees by the time the offseason is over?

Dan Szymborski: 7 more wins is tough

Dan Szymborski: Bauer would be a good start

Dan Szymborski: Brantley would have really been a nice add

Dan Szymborski: right and first are probably the biggest weaknesses after you have Bauer take, say, Tanner Roark’s innings

Dan Szymborski: and htere’ just not a great deal out there

John: What would Springers projections look like over the next 6 years if he was a full-time RF?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS sees him about a +6 RF, so around the same

Trent: Trevor Bauer to the Twins: does this make sense?  The Twins have been in on Ohtani, Ryu, Cole, etc., so could Bauer be the big-name pitcher they finally land?

Dan Szymborski: There are very few locations where contender + Bauer doesn’t make sense!

Logan: Is Trevor Story a legitimate trade candidate?  I heard his name in rumors early in the off-season, but haven’t heard anything lately, and Colorado is always touch to predict.

Dan Szymborski: He is, but who knows if he’s traded. I expect the Rockies aren’t being realistic in their trade goals.

Dan Szymborski: I have a couple pretty good sources that have indicated to me that the team expected to get bowled over for Arenado offers and it hasn’t happened.

Dosh Jonaldson: Do you think Realmuto will break the AAV record for a catcher with so few apparent suitors?

Dan Szymborski: I do

Mabel: Is it fair for White Sox fans to be upset if there is no substantial increase in payroll (over their previous peak) after all of these years of low payrolls and horrible baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

99 losses: Hey Dan, I can’t remember if you have ever looked back at how ZiPS has performed (like 5 or 10 years back in time).  Could you point me to a link or article where you have evaluated ZiPS over a long period of time?

Bonus points if the article talks about tweaks that may be needed to correct the projections.
Thank you so much!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have an independent look to give you, unfortunately.

Dan Szymborski: I do my own internally, but I have an insurmountable conflict of interest

Dee Arby: Did you hear that Tofu is a big topic of discussion in Ben’s chats? Does Tofu belong in chili?

Dan Szymborski: Gross! what are you guys doing to poor Ben?

George: Would Bauer to the Nats give them the top projected rotation again?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he woudl

Dan Szymborski: would

isaic16: As a long-time Padres fan, I find the current team somewhat confusing. If you look at their last few years, they’ve worked to build up a whole bunch of prospects and really beef up their system, graduated a few top guys to build a core, then traded from the excess to build what is looking like a great team. The confusing part is that the management has been claiming that was their strategy since probably before I was born, and yet this time it’s actually working. I’m trying to figure out what’s different. Is Preller’s scouting just that much better than the guys before him? Was he luckier? Is there a fundamental difference in the strategy I’m missing? Is it because we’re actually spending more than the money under the sofa cushions?

Dan Szymborski: It helps that they didn’t go after pretend-good players like Kemp.

Dan Szymborski: (since Hosmer signing at least)

Dan Szymborski: But of course they’re going to say it’s all part of the plan.

Dan Szymborski: Everyone successful says their failures helped them.

Appa Yip Yip: So you all realize that the bags of milk go into a container with a handle, right? We’re not just out here wrangling floppy milk into our cereal.

Dan Szymborski: Why shift to a container? The milk is already in the container.

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Is it still chili if you replace the beans with macaroni?

Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t chili to start with and it’s not now

Jack: Any advise for a young statistics student trying to learn more about baseball research?

Dan Szymborski: Ask your own questions and try to find the answers.

Adam: Which of last year’s five worst bullpens by WAR (BOS, COL, PHI, SEA, MIA) is most likely to finish with a top-5 pen this year?

Dan Szymborski: Oh god, what are you doing to me?

Dan Szymborski: Phillies, I guess?

James: Who plays CF for the Astros on opening day? Please don’t say Myles Sraw

Dan Szymborski: Easy. Myles Straw.

Guest: What the hell are the Cubs doing?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Friar Guy: Preller says he’s looking for a bench bat; ideally a lefty. Who makes the most sense?

Dan Szymborski: Rosario would be fun

DmvNat: Do you believe the Nats have one big move left in them, being that they still have about 27 million left under the tax?

Dan Szymborski: They ought to, but I’m not sure they will

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: You are the new manager of <insert borderline AL playoff contender>.  Which of these fictional players would you rather have on your roster?
1) DH that is guaranteed one hit per game started, but that hit is always a single.  He can never take the field and never unintentionally walks.  He is average across the board in every other skill set.
2) Reliever that will always retire the first batter he faces, but the ball is always put in play.  He can never pitch on back to back days or twice in a doubleheader, but can pitch in back to back games if there is an off day in between.  He is average across the board in every other skill set.

Dan Szymborski: 1

BeeDee: Where do you see the LAD’s infield situation getting the most value?  Lux is still having growing pains, Turner is asking for 4 years at age 35.

Dan Szymborski: I think in the end, Turner won’t get 4 years and he’s the best option

Dbo: When are you going to stop ducking politics and give us your opinion on the 1932 election?

Dan Szymborski: In hindsight, it probably would have been better if Otto Wels had won.

Eh?: Isn’t the answer to the Padres question above simply “Dave Cameron”?

Dan Szymborski: It’s the thanks, very cool meme

FannyGraphy: Hi Dan, I’ve read that the Positional Adjustment values for WAR are in need of a change, especially the DH. What are your thoughts on it? and how can it be done?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses 1B value for DH. I’ve looked at it a number of different ways and I keep ending up with the result that hitters hit worse as DHs than they do taking the field.

Dan Szymborski: Now, filtering out injuries is tricky

Jake: Before the Angels signed Quintana, the ZiPS depth charts listed them as having 39.9 WAR. After signing him, it’s gone down to 39.4 WAR. How/why did this happen?

Dan Szymborski: There are no updated ZIPS charts!

Dan Szymborski: They’re ZiPS/Steamer

Dan Szymborski: and other assumptions can change things

Dan Szymborski: but I don’t run that part

San Damnborski: How long will the Red Sox suck? And why am I giggling madly that the answer is longer than a year?

Dan Szymborski: Certainly 2021. I don’t know just how long the Red Sox are going to go this route.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What’s wrong with tofu? Versatile and easy to work with. Great weeknight option. Good part of an omnivore’s diet. Working my way through some tofu chorizo, rice, and bean burritos I made.

Dan Szymborski: Tofu is fine, it’s just not chili

Dan Szymborski: I would like to have a Porsche 911. It would be a great deal more fun than a lawn mower.

Dan Szymborski: But if you ask me the best way to use a Porsche 911 as a lawn mower, I gotta tell you, it’s not a lawn mower.

Dan Szymborski: I like tofu on-the-level, just as tofu. I really like the tofu I get at Thai places. It’s just not chili!

San Damnborski: Meant to say Joc is the answer to Friar Guy’s bench bat question

Dan Szymborski: Liek Gardner, I’m just not sure how interested he’d be in being a reserve

kyles: Are we going to get 3-year ZiPS projections like in the past? Thanks

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Appa Yip Yip: I honestly don’t even drink milk, and don’t particularly care what kind of container it comes in, but 1) bags are more efficient to ship and have less plastic waste. 2) lasts longer before spoiling because you have 3 one liter bags as opposed to a single gallon so the milk stays sealed. 3) lifting a single liter when full is way easier than lifting a whole ass gallon. Also, we still have cartons? And bags are only an ontario and quebec thing anyways. People get very bent out of shape over this and it’s weird.

Dan Szymborski: See, I’d crush your bag hauling hands with my powerful Merkan gallon holding fleshmitts

Dan Szymborski: Me having an additional pour between milk purchase and milk drink is a very dangerous thing

George: I don’t know if this is possible but could you figure out the division most likely to finish with the highest win total? Do you think that’s a better way of determining divisional strength as opposed to how many super teams in each division there are (ex NL East vs NL West)

Dan Szymborski: I can do this when I get a chance!

Guest: I’m so confused by all this talk of milk and pubic wigs.

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Mabel: Ok follow-up question.  Why are so many White Sox fans seemingly ok (and even supportive) of not raising payroll and / spending big?  It seems like ownership has conditioned them (and really all teams fans) that spending = bad.

Dan Szymborski: Are they OK?

Moose_Bolton: What is your favorite type of cookie?

Dan Szymborski: Whatever the real name of those pepperidge farms Brussels cookies are.

George: With only 25 million-ish to spend is it even possible for the Nats to catch the Mets/Braves at this point without things really breaking in their favor?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’d be underdogs still

Overbearing Padre: Padres are likely playoff bound but don’t have a great middle of the order lefty bat to counter the likes of de Grom, Buehler, Soroka, maybe even Cole, and all the other dominant right handed starters they’re likely to face come October. Who should they get to remedy this?  They barely scored off Flaherty, Wainwright, May, and Buehler in the 2020 playoffs. Please and thank you.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s necessarily a remedy.

Guest: Who is the favorite to win the AL West?  And does the answer change if the Angels sign Bauer?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s the A’s, but the division is very fluid

Dan Szymborski: the Angels can get really close if they push

Bauer Hour: Do you think Bauer will hold out if he doesn’t get the offer he wants?

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible. He seems a bit unpredictable.

Adam: Should the Dodgers just move Lux to left and tell him just to focus on hitting from now on?

Dan Szymborski: No

McBain: How fun could the NL West be this year, on a scale of Watching Squirrels Raid Bird Feeders to Flying Monkeys Armed with Bubble Machines?

Dan Szymborski: Dpeends which team you like!

Not Dan Szymborski: Question.  I am a fan of the Cle. Baseball Team.  I don’t see much hope for this roster as currently constructed and it seems we have a lot of “pretty good” prospects that won’t be ready to contribute until about 2022/23-ish.

In light of all that, would it be prudent to deal Biebs and Jose, assemble what would likely be the best farm system in baseball and attack 2023 as the beginning of the next window?  Or is that bolder than is necessary?

Dan Szymborski: At this point, I think I would.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t have before the Lindor trade.

Dan Szymborski: Once I’ve pushed all my chips chasing the flush, I might as well put the last ones in.

Mark: Are there any starters in particular who you see as more likely than others for the Blue Jays to target in a trade? I see Castillo and Hendricks mentioned occasionally. Anybody else come to mind?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure as a lot of the big ones have dropped

Dan Szymborski: It’d be fun to chase after Gray though.

Dan Szymborski: Or even better, Marquez, but the Rockies don’t make a great trade partner honestly.

Dan Szymborski: This is an organization that insisted on Kevin Gausman for two months of Jorge de la Rosa in 2016

Spencer: Is Turnbull a legit upside play…or just a time bomb?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure for upside

Jay: Is Bauer really going to pitch every 4 days?

Dan Szymborski: No

Guest: Do you think Brandi Rhodes is actually pregnant or is AEW setting us up for a work? She was getting her elbow smashed in a chair like two weeks before they announced her pregnancy…

Dan Szymborski: Always assume everything is a work until you KNOW otherwise

Appa Yip Yip: You don’t pour the milk from the bag into the container. You slide the bag into the container and cut the corner of the bag.

Dan Szymborski: I’d screw that up

Dan Szymborski: I once shattered a jar of olive oil in the kitchen, stepped on a shard and cut my foot open, slipped and fell on the blood-and-olive oil slurry on my floor, and then had to chase after a cat leaving bloody oil footprints after stepping in it.

Guest: Dan, I made turkey chili this week. Does that exist in your mind? Or do you feel strongly that chili must be beef?

Dan Szymborski: Was the turkey made of beef?

Dan Szymborski: If so, I see no chili

Guest: The depth charts on Fangraphs have the Astros ahead of the As by about 5 WAR.  Still sticking with the As as favorites in the Weset?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Steve: Will we ever see a hitter with >50% strikeouts and >1 OPS

Dan Szymborski: Probably not. The ISO and BABIP needed would be extreme.

Appa Yip Yip: If you were assigning a team to have their pitching, hitting, and defense to be one each of great, mediocre, and shaky, how would you do it for your own maximum personal enjoyment? I go great hitting, mediocre pitching, and shaky defense. Slugfests for days.

Dan Szymborski: I’d swap the hitting and pitching

Guest: The Reds reportedly asked for Gleyber Torres in return for Luis Castillo.  Would that be a “fair” trade, in your opinion?

Dan Szymborski: Little rich for me from the Yankees

Dan Szymborski: and I love me some Luis

CancelStudentDebt: DAN

Dan Szymborski: CANCELSTUDENTDEBT

Ben Gamel Grade 80 Hair: When will be see Wander Franco up in bigs? 2021 season realistic?

Dan Szymborski: I think he makes an appearance

George: Does ZIPS factor in team development for prospects? As in we know some teams (Dodgers, Cleveland, Tampa) does that affect your projections for your players or would that be just too much noise.

Dan Szymborski: No

Megan: Which of these “boring” vets will produce in 21? Haniger or Piscotty?

Dan Szymborski: Mitch closes his eyes during Mariners games because on the inside of his eyelids, he has a picture of the Mariners playing better.

Moonlight Graham: Do you think there is still a big trade on the horizon for this offseason? Feels like there’s still rumors of one, but no true traction.

Dan Szymborski: There still could be given the environment in which some teams are trying to suck and nobody wants to pay dudes anything

CITIZENS AGAINST OTTO WELS: How DARE you sir, stick to sports!!!

Guest: Does Soto or Acuna have the higher career WAR projection?

Dan Szymborski: Acuna’s but it’s VERY close.

John Olerud: I know the projections and many observers like the Jays and are convinced they’re the real deal, and that these “go for it” expenditures are wise at this moment. Just in light of the way teams tend to function regardless of right or wrong (i.e., spending in bunches then pulling back), I’m just a little dubious that it is in fact the right time, given that their expectant future stars haven’t really proven it yet, and that a lot of their real promising performances have have come from somewhat surprising sources and over the course of a SSS 2019 and a weird pandemic-shortened 2020. Just wondering if you have any caveats to their projections in light of this?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t. What it comes down to is that the projections don’t have Vladito hitting like his dad and see the Jays as close

Dan Szymborski: They don’t give Pearson a lot of innings, and so on

Smiling Politely: As much as we lament the non-White Sox central teams for doing competitive things, shouldn’t the Angels/As be doing a lot more right now (especially since they can benefit from FAs available)?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Especially the Angels

Dan Szymborski: We already know the A’s are cheap and at this point, it’s beatin ga dead horse

Johnny5Alive: after missing out on springer, is it really worth for the mets to get JBJ? Is the defensive upgrade worth more than having dom smith in the lineup every day?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it is honestly. My interest in him would be as fourth OF type

Asinwreck: If 2021 Lucas Giolito was a sandwich, what kind of sandwich would he be?

Dan Szymborski: A sandwich made of tacos

Dan Szymborski: and beer

Appa Yip Yip: The reaction to the Springer signing has been almost universally positive, despite the Astros cheating stuff. Does the same happen with Correa? He was much more vocally defensive about it all and I wonder if the stink clings to him a little more strongly.

Dan Szymborski: See the Bauer answer.  You can’t call the star outfielder store and ask them to send you the Trash Canless version.

Dan Szymborski: You can be unhappy with how Astros players acted and also want them to bring you wins.

Dan Szymborski: The evidence that it mattered really all that much from a win standpoint is fairly limited and circumstantial. Cheating isn’t bad just if it works, it’s cheating because you *tried* to cheat. See corked bats.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming this week! Unfortuately, due to the flood of great questions, I could only answer about a third. I’ll see you all next time!