Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/15/26

Dan Szymborski: Chat time!

Dan Szymborski: Well, a few minutes late as it woudln’t take my password on this PC for some reason

Donald: What would ZiPS offer for Greenland

Dan Szymborski: As the creator is a Georgist, I’d feel conflicted about projecting anything for land acquisition!

Fella: Been reports that the Mets could pivot to the trade market for offense if they come up short on Tucker. Who would be some candidates? Nootbaar?

Dan Szymborski: He’d certainly be a possibility

Dan Szymborski: There aren’t a lot of great corner otufielders available for trade at the moment

Dan Szymborski: Getting Duran woudl make sense, but the Red Sox appear to be asking for quite a lot

Dan Szymborski: Guys like Wallner or Larnach aren’t terribly exciting and I might just want to go with Benge at that point

Dan Szymborski: They COULD look at Bellinger I guess

Dan Szymborski: Or Grichuk or theoretically even talk with Winker again, but none of those other optiosn are exciting

JT: So zips was fine with Paredes’ horrible batted ball numbers and pull-only approach until now, when he’s coming off his highest barrel and hard-hit% of his career? Not real fair for all of us counting on him in

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I was a little surprised by that too

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t really ahd time to unwind that many individual projections and get to the core yet

Broken Bat: Now that Rockies  Dollander has graduated to MLB but his potential is capped by home park, and SP a scarcity, what kind of return could Rockies get as position players? Top 50 prospect and maybe a 2-3 year MLB former that is still figuring it out? Example: McLain from Reds and a top 8 prospect from Reds farm? IMO, using Dollander as example his worth is higher to just about all other teams than Rockies. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’d get anywhere near that return.

Dan Szymborski: Now, he had shockingly large home/road splits, but those are super noisy

Klubot3000: Just gobsmacked by that Ohtani projection. 53HR/29SB as a median? 83 ERA-, and I’m taking the over on 80 IP so a realistic chance to lead the Dodgers in pitching and hitting WAR? What are the chances he puts up a 14+ WAR season? Is it insane that the chances are genuinely not 0%???

Dan Szymborski: Don’t have it open but that would be really really on the very low probability side

Dan Szymborski: The tails are pretty one sided with a guy this good

War2D2: Hi Dan! Who do you (and ZiPS) like better long-term, Jaxon Wiggins or Cade Horton? Eric has 50fv’s on both of them, but they seem to go about it in different ways with Horton having a higher floor but more of a “Jameson Taillon” peak, and Wiggins having a higher ceiling but more of a bust/relief possibility. BP just put a “young Justin Verlander” comp on Wiggins’ heater so I’m obviously excited but trying to temper my hopes.

Dan Szymborski: Both and me and ZiPS are kinda on the same page here. Horton’s floor is likely MUCH higher, and that’s probably more relevant for the Cubs than the riskier guy

Dan Szymborski: His first-pitch strike numbers have been absolutely atrocious for the minors, even worse than the walk rate

Barry M.: What should I eat for lunch

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have projections of your fridge!

Dan Szymborski: But…somethign?

Love: I love you.

Love: What’s the Red Sox next move? Pitching to the Astros for Paredes? What happens with Duran / Abreu?

Dan Szymborski: YOU JUST LOVE ME SO I ANSWER THE QUESTION

Dan Szymborski: I think this might be the final big splash from Boston for now

Oaktown Blues: Would a significant economic recession/depression in the next year or two kill the A’s Vegas stadium plans?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’m not sure the exact state of their private financing

Dan Szymborski: so it’s bit outta what I can competently comment on

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it would derail the project, unless the private funding is REALLY dicey

Dan Szymborski: and hey, it could be it’s Vegas

Jeff: Does the outside temperature impact your computing machine in any way?  If not, did you need to do any special insulation to protect it?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. My office tends to be on the cold side. I’ll usually just crack a window if I have two computers batch processing a ZiPS run

Dan Szymborski: Now, in the summer, if its’ a really hot day, I tend to run things at night

Brett: What’s the threshold on GP or IP as you move down the various levels in order to receive a projection?

Dan Szymborski: Usually it’s like 10 IP at AA or 50 PA at high-A for a hitter

Dan: are the Yankees going to end up with a ton of leftover international free agent money?

Dan Szymborski: Bit too soon, no? Still a lot of guys on the board

Maria: Ohtani > Greenland?

Dan Szymborski: I know how to utilize a baseball player way better than what to do with icy strategic land with natural resources

Mike E.: What would you do: potentially overpay Framber (with some lingering worried about the cross-up too) but have an ace-type, or go shorter term and cheaper for Gallen/Bassitt? Or trade for Gore? Help me!

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the team. If a team REALLY needs pitching, it’s hard to dismiss Framber

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: What ZiPS projection so far has been the most eyebrow raising for you personally?

Dan Szymborski: The DEGREE it loves Roman Anthony and to a lesser extent, Zach neto

Dan Szymborski: Maybe how much it likes Ethan Pecko?

Oaktown Blues: Shea Langeliers for Connelly Early – who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think the REd Sox are content with their catching situation

Goose: Biggest ZiPS overperformer since COVID?

Dan Szymborski: Brewers I think?

Dude: how do you think Pages playing time changes if the Dodgers sign Tucker?

Dan Szymborski: Well, negatively I would assume!

Harry: Who makes the majors first: Colt Emerson or Konnor Griffin? Or do they both debut on the same day?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Emerson

War2D2: Cubs fans are perpetually angry at Ian Happ for some reason, even though he’s basically paid the going rate for a 3-4 win player, and he’s a 3-4 win player year after year. I personally don’t want him gone, but if the Mets need a corner OF he’s probably available since he’ll be a FA next year and they need to figure out what they have in Alcantara.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the CUBS are perpetually angry though and that’s kinda what matters

فلسطين الحرة: Oh pls pls pls Dollander to Cubs

Look At This Sotograph: You’re being scouted as a high school player. Is it better for your professional development to go to college, or to start in the minors ASAP? In terms of career WAR, and separately, in terms of career earnings. Let’s say you would get to the big leagues at the same time either way.

Dan Szymborski: This is a bit of a copout of an answer, but there’s a whole range of outcomes and quality of colleges/teams that I’m not sure you can choose one or the other

Guest: Do any primary DHs project for more WAR than Ohtani’s 20% outcome? If not, how low in the % outcomes for Shohei do you have to go to find one?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so. Alvarez would if you feel confident about more playign time than ZiPS thinks

فلسطين الحرة: Horton > Wiggins no contest strikes are important as is spin

Baz Kanata: What do you make of Shane Baz this year?

Dan Szymborski: Really good upside, but a lot of risk. He should be FINE. You could say this about most of the O’s rotation

Hundreds, Possibly Thousands: What teams, if any, might actually be interested in taking on a Ryan Mountcastle salary dump? The Diamondbacks?

Dan Szymborski: I could see the Padres being interested

Dan Szymborski: and I use interested very loosely

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s much of a Mountcastle market out there.

Greg Berd: After the Bregman deal there was a lot of talk about Boston’s unwillingness to include a no-trade clause, but won’t Bregman have 10 and 5 rights before the end of this season? Even if it ultimately came down to money, why not throw that in if you’re Boston?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, why would he have 10 and 5 rights?

Dan Szymborski: The five refers to *past* five consecutive seasons with the current team

Dan Szymborski: Bregman wouldn’t even get those until after 2031 even if he had re-signed with the Astros

Dan Szymborski: Or am I misunderstanding the q?

Kevin: I know you’ve addressed this type of thing before, but I’m trying to get my mind around it again now. Hunter Goodman’s top ZIPS comps are Tom Murphy and Carlton Fisk! Will Smith’s top comps are Bill Freehan, Carlton Fisk, and … Wally Schang?? How are we to make sense of Carlton Fisk together with Tom Murphy and Wally Schang?

Dan Szymborski: Because comps are where the person IS, not where he is going. The comps as a group give us an idea of where he may be going

Dan Szymborski: Also, I would look up Wally Schang if I were you!

Insert Witty Name Here: Was your caps lock on?

Dan Szymborski: I never use caps lock!

BillW: Is there a Ryan O’Hearn ZiPS you can share?

Dan Szymborski: 265/340/413, 109 OPS+, 1.4 WAR in 479 projected PA

Maria: The last move for the Sox is pitching for Paredes? Then they roll with four outfielders and Yoshida on the bench? Campbell and Casas in the minors?

Dan Szymborski: Imminently, I think so, and they wait to see how the spring rolsl out

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: A drunk but still legally competent Rob Manfred grants you “unlimited power” to resolve the A’s situation once and for all. What do you do?

Dan Szymborski: John Fisher dunking booth

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: If you temporarily got to run a Hollywood studio and could greenlight a new major motion picture about baseball, what would that movie be?

Dan Szymborski: A sequel to the original Naked Gun that has Reggie Jackson as an assassin full time

BKJ: What WAS Jeff Samardzija?

Dan Szymborski: a Shark I believe.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what his connection with Jaffe’s JAWS is

Tacoby Bellsbury: Which realistic destination for Bo Bichette would be the most impactful for the acquiring team? The Phillies and Dodgers both seem like “rich getting richer” scenarios.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, REALISTIC

Dan Szymborski: dangit

Dan Szymborski: Because he’d be a great fit with the Guardians!

Dan Szymborski: I think him at 2B for Giants would be pretty impactful projection wise

caps lock: my wife uses caps lock instead of shift like a freak

Dan Szymborski: I’m quite comfortable making my ring finger work

Dan Szymborski: with the pinky on shift

Dan Szymborski: But I’ve been playign piano more than 40 years so I have pretty good finger dependence

Dan Szymborski: independence

Lucha Lucha Todo Gente de Sur Global: Other than age is there any reason to prefer Shaw to Bregman anytime soon?

Dan Szymborski: Soon, no, but other than age is a bit like saying “but for that Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?”

Phil: What is Ohtani’s 99th percentile projection for total WAR? I wanna see some stupid video game-ahh numbers.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really have a mechanism for the percentiles for COMBINED

Dan Szymborski: though I will note that his 99th percentile WAR projection as a DH is 11.3

Klubot3000: One ask on the comps table, could you include the year that’s being comped? Or at the very least including the player’s age?

Dan Szymborski: I could do that in the future. Years are going to be tricky fro space reasons as we have a pretty strict limit of 650 pixesl

Dan Szymborski: but I can put age in there

Guest: Any of the sportsbooks over/under win totals you feel are just completely? I’ve identified a few

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t even looked yet

Key Flaw: The Ranger Suarez velocity scares me. What sort of things about a pitcher can we project to counteract low/declining velocity? I see his ZiPS projections are ok, but a 90 mph fastball can’t really be fooling major leaguers that much longer, right?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, there’s a risk, but that he MAKES them miss is more important. For established pitchers, tit’s changes in velocity that’s more of a worry than the absolute velocity

War2D2: You should get an old Sun keyboard if you don’t use caps lock. Replaces it with a larger CTRL key. Weirded me out at my first job but in retrospect that was the best keyboard I ever had at an office. The programmers were in a little closet of a room and it sounded like a machine gun firefight was going on if everyone was typing at once.

Dan Szymborski: I mean, if I wanted to, I can pretty easily remap the caps lock and control keys

Dan Szymborski: Like the right shift, I just don’t use it

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I’ve *ever* intentionally used my right-shift

Captainjameshook: Re: your 1sided tails Ohtani comment. Who else’s distribution has been that incongruous with the rest of the population?

Dan Szymborski: Judge, peak Bonds

Sam: Which profile would you say ages better, a Pete Alonso type with average swing decisions and solid contact skills for his power profile or a Kyle Schwarber type with great swing decisions, but more whiffs?

Dan Szymborski: it depends becuase there are a lot of interlinking variables in there

Dan Szymborski: For example, I’ve found that plate discipline skills become more or less important for aging depending on bat speed

Lucha Lucha Todo Gente de Sur Global: You wouldn’t want like an action packed romp in which a GMident of baseball invades Vz to save The Future from payroll inefficiency?

Hundreds, Possibly Thousands: I ask this because the Pirates signed a 6-8 18 year old pitcher from China

TameImp: Without taking any stance on the substance of it, how much do you think the Matt Shaw extracurriculars hurt his trade value?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not. There are a lot of wealthy male dudes in their 20s in sports, and that tends to skew more conservatively

Dan Szymborski:

Maria: Why was UZR taken away?

Dan Szymborski: If I’m not mistaken — and I could be — Lichtman’s simply not doing it anymore

Dan Szymborski: But again, could be wrong

Dr. Curvegood: How do you usually feel as the ZiPS cycle winds down – exhausted, relieved, saddened, excited?

Dan Szymborski: Usually relieved. I get to move on to other things!

Guest: How much do you think projected tax on earnings factors into a player’s decision on where to sign? Obviously it’s not going to be top priority but it’s got to be a real tip factor, right?

Dan Szymborski: It CAN be, especially in the extremes

Key Flaw: Growing up in Maryland in the 80s, I never even heard of Berger cookies or Smith Island Cake. Now they seem to be the “this is a real Marylander thing!”, but I just don’t really care for either and don’t associate either with my home state. Do you have any other things that modern Marylanders think as Maryland specific but you are like “huh” to? (Also, I NEVER heard the area called the DMV in my 22 years there growing up)

Dan Szymborski: See, I definitely associate both with Maryland

Dan Szymborski: I usually pick up some Berger cookies for my mom when I’m in Baltimore

Dan Szymborski: though they’re not really my thing. I find them too fudgy

Dan Szymborski: smith island cake is fine

Dan Szymborski: now, I have the feeling of things that are Maryland but not really Baltimroe area things

Dan Szymborski: like stuffed ham

Dan Szymborski: which is still big in southern MD

Dan Szymborski: it’s not specifically MD since it’s a WV thing too, but you encounter a lot of pepperoni rolls in western MD

Dan Szymborski: Which, depending on how it is used, is a really oddly sparse sandwich or a really disappointing pizza

JimboSlice: Does Brandon Young crack the Orioles rotation second half of the year?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll probably get SOME starts no matter what

Concerned Citizen: Liberal third baseman STEALS JOB from true patriot Matt Shaw. Woke strikes again

Dan Szymborski: heh

captainjameshook: Is Mountcastle in danger of getting the J.D. Davis treatment during Spring Training?

Dan Szymborski: yes

Lucha Lucha Todo Gente de Sur Global: TIL Chevy Chase, Maryland is a place that exists

Greg: Do you know what AVM systems is up to nowadays? They seem so close and dagger

Dan Szymborski: No idea really. I’ve never interacted with the AVM people and they were always really secretive

Yohan: Help me understand how men in their 20s want to be conservative.

Dan Szymborski: Eh, I don’t like to speculate on how others become a certain way

Dan Szymborski: And I fit rather poorly into the left-right spectrum, so I can’t claim to have special insight

Dan Szymborski: Other than the fact that I think most everyone would hate me

Insert Witty Name Here: There’s a right shift?!

Greg: ZiPs preseason standings coming out when?

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to do the first build right after the last teams go next week

Leo: Favorite brewery in the baltimore area?

Dan Szymborski: Union or Peabody Heights

Dan Szymborski: on that note, time for me to head out for antoher week

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming all!